Well, well, well, that makes things a lot more interesting in Group C following the decision to award Lesotho the points for the 21 March 2025 match that initially ended in a 2-0 win for South Africa but has now been awarded 0-3 to Lesotho. South Africa was firm favorite with 96.84% of the simulations going their way, but it is now a four-horse race again. Saying that, with an away match against the bottom team Zimbabwe and a home match against Rwanda they will still fancy their chances, with Benin probably needing wins away to Rwanda and Nigeria. Nigeria could still qualify directly if they win both their matches away to lowly Lesotho and at home to Benin, but they'll then need South Africa to lose one of their remaining two matches. And then there's Rwanda, they're also in with a chance given that they will play Benin at home and South Africa away. Either way, their matches will have an influence on who wins the group most likely. In other words, as the simulations now suggest, there's not much in it, and it could still go to goal difference. Below how things stood before that awarded match, and how things now stand.
Sunday, October 5, 2025
2026 World Cup Qualifying CAF 10000 Simulations (update 5 October 2025)
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
South Africa 96.84% 3.06% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Benin 2.28% 48.12% 38.03% 11.57% 0.00% 0.00%
Nigeria 0.80% 45.56% 44.02% 8.86% 0.76% 0.00%
Rwanda 0.08% 3.26% 17.67% 77.61% 1.38% 0.00%
Lesotho 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 1.96% 57.18% 40.68%
Zimbabwe 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 40.68% 59.32%
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
South Africa 38.53% 37.71% 17.53% 6.16% 0.07% 0.00%
Benin 29.80% 27.73% 32.61% 9.67% 0.19% 0.00%
Nigeria 29.51% 28.17% 32.81% 7.09% 2.42% 0.00%
Rwanda 2.15% 5.90% 13.77% 63.58% 14.60% 0.00%
Lesotho 0.01% 0.49% 3.28% 13.50% 57.89% 24.83%
Zimbabwe 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 24.83% 75.17%
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Homer I’d love to know your thoughts on the qualification of Chile over Egypt in the u20s? I ask because to me it appears to be a major change in how group stages work.
ReplyDeleteChile and Egypt finished on same points, goals diff and goals for. It appeared that Egypt would finished ahead though as they beat Chile head to head but no.
FIFA decided that when only viewing points NZ was also in the mix (they had a worse goal difference and should not have been included).
When NZ were included then everything was drawn up between the 3 and then yellows and red gave it to Chile.
I know we all have little respect for fifa but this really does look like a change to get the hosts in but it fundamentally changes how group stages work.
Hi Uruguay Fan, I'm not sure if what you write is true, but I generally don't follow the underage tournaments unless my own country is involved and winning, so I've only just looked at this situation on Wikipedia. Focusing on the main national teams for me is already enough work and takes enough of my time. What I do know from watching and following international tournaments since my first TV tournament in 1980, is that the rules are changed from time to time and if I trust Wikipedia then for this tournament head-to-head wasn't relevant. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_FIFA_U-20_World_Cup#Tiebreakers. But it wouldn't be the first controversy ever in the history of football. In the end there needs to be some way to separate teams, and thankfully for major tournaments the procedure is generally decided beforehand these days, so I'll have to assume that was the case here also. It could be worse. I remember during the 1990 World Cup there was a drawing of lots (!!!) between my own country the Netherlands and Ireland who would end up second and third in the group. We ended up "losing" and had to play West Germany in the second round, whereas Ireland got a nice draw ending up playing Romania and winning on penalties. And before my time in Euro 1968 Italy "won" the semi final "beating" the U.S.S.R. by a coin toss! Ultimately a way is needed to separate teams, and I actually think looking at yellow/red cards is a bad way. In the group stage there's no guarantee that the teams involved will even be in the same stadium, city or country, but in this case they were. But still, rules are rules.
DeleteFirstly appreciate the reply Homer. I know you do this on the side so thanks for getting back to me.
DeleteI can confirm the tie breakers for this tournament are the same as last few main world cups.
The interesting thing here is the apparent reading of the rules.
You’d assume with Chile on 3pts and x goal diff, eqypt on 3pts and x goal diff and NZ on 3pts and x-1 goal diff the two teams who needed seperation were Egypt and Chile. But fifa decided all three were on 3pts and disregarded goal difference and therefore the top team in the group dropped out and then yellows and reds became the deciding factor meaning Chile went thru.
If it had been anyone else I’d assume I’d read the rules wrong but the fact this assisted the host nation makes me wonder. Not Egyptian by the way.
I don’t like the precedent this sets and wouldn’t be shocked if when tournament finishes fifa fix the mess by saying oh sorry an intern made a mistake Egypt should have gone thru.
And mate, I was 10 in 90 and remember that drawing of lots well. As an innocent kid I asked my dad why can’t they call both teams to a stadium and have a quick penalty shootout? :)
Hi Uruguay Fan, here's the FIFA article, see article 13: https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/26983ccd3059721a/original/Regulations-for-the-FIFA-U20-World-Cup-Chile-2025_EN.pdf. It starts: "If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points after the completion of the group stage, the following criteria, in the order below, shall be applied to determine the ranking:". So to me that clearly indicates they will consider Chile, Egypt AND New Zealand as they all have the same number of points. Step 1 talks about then looking at each of the 3 teams and the points they achieved in matches between them, which is 3 for all of them. Also the goal difference and goals scored in the group matches between them is the same. So then they move to step 2, and then New Zealand falls away as they lost 3-0 to Japan whereas Egypt and Chile only lost by 2-0. So then it goes to yellow/red cards. I don't see that any rules were breached, sorry.
DeleteThe rules listed in Homer's link are, importantly, NOT the same as were used for the most recent main World Cup, for which overall GD was the first tiebreaker. This U-20 WC (and the 2026 WC) start with head-to-head. Some rule sets that prioritize head-to-head include a clause that re-cycles the H2H if the first pass separates some but not all (i.e. A 2-1 B, B 1-0 C, C 1-0 A), but this one does not, and in any event the separation doesn't happen until the overall GD is considered. (The American NFL does use a tiebreaker system where, once NZ was eliminated, the other two would reset to the beginning of the list).
DeleteFinally, I discovered looking at the 2026 rules that, in the event the yellow/red cards can't separate teams, there would no longer be a drawing of lots, but instead the current FIFA rankings would be decisive.
It really isn't relevant. They were decided before the tournament, so they were applied correctly without bias and without favoring the home team specifically. So let's just accept them and move on.
Delete