Here's a simulation of the 2026 World Cup Qualifying CONCACAF Third Round.
So it would look like currently Panama, Jamaica and Honduras are slight favorites to win their groups and qualify for the finals, with Costa Rica having the best chances to upset that, followed by Curaçao. Surinam and Guatemala are still in the running for the Intercontinental qualifying spot. Comparing this to the previous simulation El Salvador's chances have dropped significantly.
Group A
Winner Run-Up Third Fourth
Panama 61.92% 24.78% 9.79% 3.51%
Surinam 17.99% 39.53% 26.58% 15.90%
Guatamala 16.95% 29.39% 38.52% 15.14%
El Salvador 3.14% 6.30% 25.11% 65.45%
Group B
Winner Run-Up Third Fourth
Jamaica 68.85% 23.13% 8.02% 0.00%
Curaçao 28.48% 54.76% 16.76% 0.00%
Trinidad and Tobago 2.67% 22.11% 73.34% 1.88%
Bermuda 0.00% 0.00% 1.88% 98.12%
Group C
Winner Run-Up Third Fourth
Honduras 58.50% 35.74% 5.76% 0.00%
Costa Rica 35.40% 38.85% 25.37% 0.38%
Haiti 6.10% 25.41% 63.83% 4.66%
Nicaragua 0.00% 0.00% 5.04% 94.96%
Thanks for the Analysis. I am curious whether in the next few weeks you can split the Runner Up %s into the 2 important parts - (a) RunnerUp and Qual for ICP and (b) RunnerUp and Eliminated.
ReplyDeleteHi Ted, thanks for your suggestion. While this is not too difficult to do, at the moment my software cannot yet handle this, and I fear I won't have time to do this before the qualifiers are complete as I'm working on another more urgent project at the moment. So sorry. Hopefully next time such a situation occurs.
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