So here's the latest prediction (not a simulation) for the (28?) November 2025 FIFA ranking if all (known) matches go as expected. From this we can then determine, following earlier simulation posts, what the seeding pots will likely look like.
NOTE 1: This ranking doesn't include matches from the 2026 World Cup qualifying groups that are still to be determined, notably the AFC fourth round.
NOTE 2: the "+/-" columns here refer to the changes from the (also) predicted (23?) October 2025 ranking. That ranking follows on from predicted (18?) September and 10 July 2025 rankings.
Pos Country Points +/- +/-
1 Argentina 1895.54 0 0.00
2 Spain 1889.68 0 8.92
3 France 1882.31 0 7.16
4 England 1834.25 0 9.85
5 Portugal 1797.98 0 6.86
6 Brazil 1786.60 0 0.00
7 Netherlands 1780.38 0 8.21
8 Belgium 1755.35 0 2.93
9 Germany 1746.95 0 10.09
10 Croatia 1729.07 0 6.43
11 Italy 1727.11 0 9.95
12 Morocco 1715.57 0 0.00
13 Mexico 1693.29 0 0.00
14 Colombia 1692.10 0 0.00
15 Uruguay 1686.15 0 0.00
16 Switzerland 1679.98 1 13.57
17 United States 1674.95 0 0.00
18 Denmark 1665.38 1 12.31
19 Senegal 1655.40 0 0.00
20 Japan 1645.56 0 0.00
21 Iran 1631.48 0 0.00
22 Austria 1621.99 0 9.72
23 Australia 1578.57 0 0.00
24 South Korea 1578.29 0 0.00
25 Panama 1576.37 3 11.79
26 Ecuador 1575.33 0 0.00
27 Türkiye 1570.19 -1 0.01
28 Ukraine 1568.89 -1 1.63
29 Sweden 1557.55 0 0.46
30 Canada 1553.03 0 0.00
31 Egypt 1538.14 0 0.00
32 Costa Rica 1535.77 4 16.02
33 Wales 1534.85 2 10.92
34 Norway 1533.21 -2 -3.99
35 Algeria 1531.94 0 0.00
36 Serbia 1530.36 -3 -2.12
37 Hungary 1519.53 3 15.72
38 Russia 1514.54 0 0.00
39 Poland 1505.16 -1 -3.91
40 Côte d'Ivoire 1503.91 0 0.00
41 Nigeria 1499.88 0 0.00
42 Czechia 1499.50 0 1.75
43 Tunisia 1495.63 0 0.00
44 Greece 1491.75 1 6.29
45 Cameroon 1491.34 0 0.00
46 Slovakia 1484.26 0 -0.14
47 Peru 1481.51 0 0.00
48 Mali 1479.84 0 0.00
49 Romania 1478.45 2 11.16
50 Paraguay 1476.31 0 0.00
51 Scotland 1471.91 -3 -8.29
52 Venezuela 1465.02 0 0.00
53 South Africa 1460.71 0 0.00
54 Qatar 1459.85 0 0.00
55 Uzbekistan 1449.12 0 0.00
56 Slovenia 1447.46 -1 -2.99
57 Democratic Republic of Congo 1426.31 0 0.00
58 Chile 1425.99 0 0.00
59 Iraq 1417.04 0 0.00
60 Saudi Arabia 1415.11 0 0.00
61 Jamaica 1410.14 4 18.32
62 Ireland 1398.13 -1 -14.85
63 Burkina Faso 1395.83 0 0.00
64 Honduras 1391.93 -1 -3.56
65 Jordan 1387.75 0 0.00
66 North Macedonia 1385.97 -3 -9.45
67 United Arab Emirates 1379.86 0 0.00
68 Georgia 1372.90 1 6.95
69 Albania 1370.70 -1 0.34
70 Finland 1366.51 0 6.11
71 Cape Verde Islands 1354.55 0 0.00
72 Northern Ireland 1351.53 2 9.67
73 Ghana 1344.36 0 0.00
74 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1337.12 -2 -16.33
75 Iceland 1332.97 0 0.38
76 Israel 1330.27 0 5.69
77 Montenegro 1321.58 0 -1.20
78 Gabon 1317.65 0 0.00
79 Oman 1312.83 0 0.00
80 Bolivia 1307.24 0 0.00
81 Guinea 1293.98 0 0.00
82 Angola 1293.20 0 0.00
83 New Zealand 1286.05 0 0.00
84 Zambia 1279.75 0 0.00
85 Syria 1277.79 0 3.64
86 El Salvador 1274.39 1 1.79
87 Uganda 1272.68 0 0.00
88 Curaçao 1267.61 0 -3.48
89 Bahrain 1266.96 0 0.00
90 Equatorial Guinea 1265.88 0 0.00
91 Benin 1259.08 0 0.00
92 Mozambique 1251.25 0 0.00
93 China 1249.06 0 0.00
94 Haiti 1247.21 1 2.57
94 Bulgaria 1247.19 -3 -15.88
96 Guatemala 1244.06 0 2.99
97 Thailand 1239.87 1 4.51
98 Palestine 1236.41 0 0.00
99 Trinidad and Tobago 1227.42 1 -1.79
100 Tanzania 1221.45 0 0.00
100 Tajikistan 1221.40 3 4.77
102 Namibia 1215.11 0 0.00
103 Kosovo 1212.99 -2 -11.04
104 Luxembourg 1211.99 -5 -19.62
105 Kyrgyzstan 1208.57 0 0.00
106 Belarus 1201.95 -1 -10.31
107 Comoros 1191.85 0 0.00
108 Lebanon 1190.76 0 5.95
109 Vietnam 1189.45 0 5.88
110 Kenya 1181.62 0 0.00
111 Mauritania 1177.20 0 0.00
112 Armenia 1173.16 -1 -7.73
113 Madagascar 1172.93 0 0.00
114 Sudan 1160.96 0 0.00
115 Malaysia 1156.43 7 7.12
116 Indonesia 1154.55 0 0.00
117 Libya 1154.13 0 0.00
118 Kazakhstan 1153.52 -3 -2.30
119 Togo 1152.12 0 0.00
120 North Korea 1151.05 0 0.00
121 Zimbabwe 1150.05 0 0.00
122 Gambia 1149.72 0 0.00
123 Sierra Leone 1149.06 0 0.00
124 India 1140.09 1 6.89
125 Guinea-Bissau 1132.92 0 0.00
126 Estonia 1131.70 -2 -4.63
127 Congo 1121.62 0 0.00
128 Niger 1121.05 0 0.00
129 Azerbaijan 1120.98 -2 -9.16
130 Turkmenistan 1115.34 2 8.87
131 Cyprus 1110.08 -1 -3.00
132 Malawi 1107.04 0 0.00
133 Rwanda 1106.49 0 0.00
134 Kuwait 1098.87 0 0.00
135 Latvia 1092.61 0 -4.03
136 Philippines 1090.89 2 9.45
137 Faroe Islands 1080.64 0 -1.97
138 Central African Republic 1080.50 0 0.00
139 Nicaragua 1080.20 -3 -15.02
140 Dominican Republic 1076.78 0 0.00
141 Hong Kong 1073.07 3 10.95
142 Botswana 1071.64 0 0.00
143 Lithuania 1065.98 0 -1.53
144 Burundi 1059.59 0 0.00
145 Surinam 1058.58 -4 -16.58
146 Yemen 1048.83 3 8.70
147 Liberia 1048.14 0 0.00
148 Solomon Islands 1045.58 0 0.00
149 Fiji 1043.44 0 0.00
150 New Caledonia 1039.55 0 0.00
151 Guyana 1037.34 0 0.00
152 St. Kitts and Nevis 1035.92 0 0.00
153 Ethiopia 1030.73 0 0.00
154 Puerto Rico 1020.55 0 0.00
155 Tahiti 1019.04 0 0.00
156 Afghanistan 1017.39 0 -0.65
157 Lesotho 1014.43 0 0.00
158 Moldova 1000.56 0 -7.23
159 Eswatini 998.00 0 0.00
160 Antigua and Barbuda 992.38 0 0.00
161 Vanuatu 991.59 0 0.00
162 Myanmar 991.38 1 0.65
163 St. Lucia 990.69 0 0.00
164 Singapore 986.35 -4 -10.95
165 Cuba 980.33 0 0.00
166 Grenada 979.91 0 0.00
167 Papua New Guinea 969.17 0 0.00
168 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 967.19 0 0.00
169 Bermuda 964.06 -2 -13.05
170 Malta 956.89 0 -7.25
171 South Sudan 953.83 0 0.00
172 Maldives 942.21 0 -9.45
173 Taiwan 941.89 0 -8.87
174 Andorra 935.69 0 -5.66
175 Barbados 919.97 0 0.00
176 Montserrat 916.75 0 0.00
177 Cambodia 910.21 0 0.00
178 Belize 904.45 0 0.00
179 Mauritius 902.97 0 0.00
180 Nepal 902.42 -2 -7.12
180 Chad 902.00 0 0.00
182 Dominica 901.33 0 0.00
183 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00
184 Mongolia 879.75 0 0.00
185 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00
186 Samoa 876.41 0 0.00
187 Brunei 875.78 -3 -5.95
188 Bangladesh 874.32 -3 -6.89
189 Laos 870.70 -1 -5.88
190 Bhutan 867.86 -1 -8.70
191 Macao 865.29 0 0.00
192 Aruba 861.16 0 0.00
193 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00
194 Cayman Islands 853.37 0 0.00
195 Djibouti 848.07 0 0.00
196 São Tomé and Príncipe 846.22 0 0.00
197 Sri Lanka 836.56 0 -4.51
198 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00
199 Timor Leste 835.50 -1 -4.77
200 Guam 823.08 0 0.00
201 Gibraltar 822.51 -1 -5.00
202 Somalia 818.85 0 0.00
203 Pakistan 809.10 0 -3.64
204 Bahamas 807.40 0 0.00
205 Seychelles 805.13 0 0.00
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 0 0.00
207 Liechtenstein 800.03 0 -2.10
208 US Virgin Islands 779.71 0 0.00
209 British Virgin Islands 766.83 0 0.00
210 Anguilla 759.54 0 0.00
211 San Marino 729.01 0 -1.35
1 Argentina 1895.54 0 0.00
2 Spain 1889.68 0 8.92
3 France 1882.31 0 7.16
4 England 1834.25 0 9.85
5 Portugal 1797.98 0 6.86
6 Brazil 1786.60 0 0.00
7 Netherlands 1780.38 0 8.21
8 Belgium 1755.35 0 2.93
9 Germany 1746.95 0 10.09
10 Croatia 1729.07 0 6.43
11 Italy 1727.11 0 9.95
12 Morocco 1715.57 0 0.00
13 Mexico 1693.29 0 0.00
14 Colombia 1692.10 0 0.00
15 Uruguay 1686.15 0 0.00
16 Switzerland 1679.98 1 13.57
17 United States 1674.95 0 0.00
18 Denmark 1665.38 1 12.31
19 Senegal 1655.40 0 0.00
20 Japan 1645.56 0 0.00
21 Iran 1631.48 0 0.00
22 Austria 1621.99 0 9.72
23 Australia 1578.57 0 0.00
24 South Korea 1578.29 0 0.00
25 Panama 1576.37 3 11.79
26 Ecuador 1575.33 0 0.00
27 Türkiye 1570.19 -1 0.01
28 Ukraine 1568.89 -1 1.63
29 Sweden 1557.55 0 0.46
30 Canada 1553.03 0 0.00
31 Egypt 1538.14 0 0.00
32 Costa Rica 1535.77 4 16.02
33 Wales 1534.85 2 10.92
34 Norway 1533.21 -2 -3.99
35 Algeria 1531.94 0 0.00
36 Serbia 1530.36 -3 -2.12
37 Hungary 1519.53 3 15.72
38 Russia 1514.54 0 0.00
39 Poland 1505.16 -1 -3.91
40 Côte d'Ivoire 1503.91 0 0.00
41 Nigeria 1499.88 0 0.00
42 Czechia 1499.50 0 1.75
43 Tunisia 1495.63 0 0.00
44 Greece 1491.75 1 6.29
45 Cameroon 1491.34 0 0.00
46 Slovakia 1484.26 0 -0.14
47 Peru 1481.51 0 0.00
48 Mali 1479.84 0 0.00
49 Romania 1478.45 2 11.16
50 Paraguay 1476.31 0 0.00
51 Scotland 1471.91 -3 -8.29
52 Venezuela 1465.02 0 0.00
53 South Africa 1460.71 0 0.00
54 Qatar 1459.85 0 0.00
55 Uzbekistan 1449.12 0 0.00
56 Slovenia 1447.46 -1 -2.99
57 Democratic Republic of Congo 1426.31 0 0.00
58 Chile 1425.99 0 0.00
59 Iraq 1417.04 0 0.00
60 Saudi Arabia 1415.11 0 0.00
61 Jamaica 1410.14 4 18.32
62 Ireland 1398.13 -1 -14.85
63 Burkina Faso 1395.83 0 0.00
64 Honduras 1391.93 -1 -3.56
65 Jordan 1387.75 0 0.00
66 North Macedonia 1385.97 -3 -9.45
67 United Arab Emirates 1379.86 0 0.00
68 Georgia 1372.90 1 6.95
69 Albania 1370.70 -1 0.34
70 Finland 1366.51 0 6.11
71 Cape Verde Islands 1354.55 0 0.00
72 Northern Ireland 1351.53 2 9.67
73 Ghana 1344.36 0 0.00
74 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1337.12 -2 -16.33
75 Iceland 1332.97 0 0.38
76 Israel 1330.27 0 5.69
77 Montenegro 1321.58 0 -1.20
78 Gabon 1317.65 0 0.00
79 Oman 1312.83 0 0.00
80 Bolivia 1307.24 0 0.00
81 Guinea 1293.98 0 0.00
82 Angola 1293.20 0 0.00
83 New Zealand 1286.05 0 0.00
84 Zambia 1279.75 0 0.00
85 Syria 1277.79 0 3.64
86 El Salvador 1274.39 1 1.79
87 Uganda 1272.68 0 0.00
88 Curaçao 1267.61 0 -3.48
89 Bahrain 1266.96 0 0.00
90 Equatorial Guinea 1265.88 0 0.00
91 Benin 1259.08 0 0.00
92 Mozambique 1251.25 0 0.00
93 China 1249.06 0 0.00
94 Haiti 1247.21 1 2.57
94 Bulgaria 1247.19 -3 -15.88
96 Guatemala 1244.06 0 2.99
97 Thailand 1239.87 1 4.51
98 Palestine 1236.41 0 0.00
99 Trinidad and Tobago 1227.42 1 -1.79
100 Tanzania 1221.45 0 0.00
100 Tajikistan 1221.40 3 4.77
102 Namibia 1215.11 0 0.00
103 Kosovo 1212.99 -2 -11.04
104 Luxembourg 1211.99 -5 -19.62
105 Kyrgyzstan 1208.57 0 0.00
106 Belarus 1201.95 -1 -10.31
107 Comoros 1191.85 0 0.00
108 Lebanon 1190.76 0 5.95
109 Vietnam 1189.45 0 5.88
110 Kenya 1181.62 0 0.00
111 Mauritania 1177.20 0 0.00
112 Armenia 1173.16 -1 -7.73
113 Madagascar 1172.93 0 0.00
114 Sudan 1160.96 0 0.00
115 Malaysia 1156.43 7 7.12
116 Indonesia 1154.55 0 0.00
117 Libya 1154.13 0 0.00
118 Kazakhstan 1153.52 -3 -2.30
119 Togo 1152.12 0 0.00
120 North Korea 1151.05 0 0.00
121 Zimbabwe 1150.05 0 0.00
122 Gambia 1149.72 0 0.00
123 Sierra Leone 1149.06 0 0.00
124 India 1140.09 1 6.89
125 Guinea-Bissau 1132.92 0 0.00
126 Estonia 1131.70 -2 -4.63
127 Congo 1121.62 0 0.00
128 Niger 1121.05 0 0.00
129 Azerbaijan 1120.98 -2 -9.16
130 Turkmenistan 1115.34 2 8.87
131 Cyprus 1110.08 -1 -3.00
132 Malawi 1107.04 0 0.00
133 Rwanda 1106.49 0 0.00
134 Kuwait 1098.87 0 0.00
135 Latvia 1092.61 0 -4.03
136 Philippines 1090.89 2 9.45
137 Faroe Islands 1080.64 0 -1.97
138 Central African Republic 1080.50 0 0.00
139 Nicaragua 1080.20 -3 -15.02
140 Dominican Republic 1076.78 0 0.00
141 Hong Kong 1073.07 3 10.95
142 Botswana 1071.64 0 0.00
143 Lithuania 1065.98 0 -1.53
144 Burundi 1059.59 0 0.00
145 Surinam 1058.58 -4 -16.58
146 Yemen 1048.83 3 8.70
147 Liberia 1048.14 0 0.00
148 Solomon Islands 1045.58 0 0.00
149 Fiji 1043.44 0 0.00
150 New Caledonia 1039.55 0 0.00
151 Guyana 1037.34 0 0.00
152 St. Kitts and Nevis 1035.92 0 0.00
153 Ethiopia 1030.73 0 0.00
154 Puerto Rico 1020.55 0 0.00
155 Tahiti 1019.04 0 0.00
156 Afghanistan 1017.39 0 -0.65
157 Lesotho 1014.43 0 0.00
158 Moldova 1000.56 0 -7.23
159 Eswatini 998.00 0 0.00
160 Antigua and Barbuda 992.38 0 0.00
161 Vanuatu 991.59 0 0.00
162 Myanmar 991.38 1 0.65
163 St. Lucia 990.69 0 0.00
164 Singapore 986.35 -4 -10.95
165 Cuba 980.33 0 0.00
166 Grenada 979.91 0 0.00
167 Papua New Guinea 969.17 0 0.00
168 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 967.19 0 0.00
169 Bermuda 964.06 -2 -13.05
170 Malta 956.89 0 -7.25
171 South Sudan 953.83 0 0.00
172 Maldives 942.21 0 -9.45
173 Taiwan 941.89 0 -8.87
174 Andorra 935.69 0 -5.66
175 Barbados 919.97 0 0.00
176 Montserrat 916.75 0 0.00
177 Cambodia 910.21 0 0.00
178 Belize 904.45 0 0.00
179 Mauritius 902.97 0 0.00
180 Nepal 902.42 -2 -7.12
180 Chad 902.00 0 0.00
182 Dominica 901.33 0 0.00
183 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00
184 Mongolia 879.75 0 0.00
185 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00
186 Samoa 876.41 0 0.00
187 Brunei 875.78 -3 -5.95
188 Bangladesh 874.32 -3 -6.89
189 Laos 870.70 -1 -5.88
190 Bhutan 867.86 -1 -8.70
191 Macao 865.29 0 0.00
192 Aruba 861.16 0 0.00
193 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00
194 Cayman Islands 853.37 0 0.00
195 Djibouti 848.07 0 0.00
196 São Tomé and Príncipe 846.22 0 0.00
197 Sri Lanka 836.56 0 -4.51
198 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00
199 Timor Leste 835.50 -1 -4.77
200 Guam 823.08 0 0.00
201 Gibraltar 822.51 -1 -5.00
202 Somalia 818.85 0 0.00
203 Pakistan 809.10 0 -3.64
204 Bahamas 807.40 0 0.00
205 Seychelles 805.13 0 0.00
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 0 0.00
207 Liechtenstein 800.03 0 -2.10
208 US Virgin Islands 779.71 0 0.00
209 British Virgin Islands 766.83 0 0.00
210 Anguilla 759.54 0 0.00
211 San Marino 729.01 0 -1.35
From this we can then determine that the top seeds will be:
1) United States (certain, hosts)
2) Mexico (certain, hosts)
3) Canada (certain, hosts)
4) Argentina (CONMEBOL #1)
5) Spain (UEFA Group E Winner)
6) France (UEFA Group D Winner)
7) England (UEFA Group K Winner)
8) Portugal (UEFA Group F Winner)
9) Brazil (CONMEBOL #2)
10) Netherlands (UEFA Group G Winner)
11) Belgium (UEFA Group J Winner)
12) Germany (UEFA Group A Winner)
Second seeds would then be:
13) Croatia (UEFA Group L Winner)
14) Morocco (CAF Group E Winner)
15) Colombia (CONMEBOL #6)
16) Uruguay (CONMEBOL #3)
17) Switzerland (UEFA Group B Winner)
18) Denmark (UEFA Group C Winner)
19) Senegal (CAF Group B Winner)
20) Japan (AFC Group C Winner)
21) Iran (AFC Group A Winner)
22) Austria (UEFA Group H Winner)
23) Australia (AFC Group C Runner Up)
24) South Korea (AFC Group B Winner)
Third seeds would then be:
25) Panama (CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner)
26) Ecuador (CONMEBOL #4)
27) Egypt (CAF Group A Winner)
28) Costa Rica (CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner)
29) Norway (UEFA Group I Winner)
30) Algeria (CAF Group G Winner)
31) Côte d'Ivoire (CAF Group F Winner)
32) Tunisia (CAF Group H Winner)
33) Cameroon (CAF Group D Winner)
34) Paraguay (CONMEBOL #5)
35) South Africa (CAF Group C Winner)
36) Qatar (if they qualify as highest AFC Fourth Round Winner), or Uzbekistan (AFC Group A Runner Up)
Finally, the fourth bracket would have the remaining teams (with the UEFA playoff winners and Intercontinental playoff winners only being determined in March 2026, several months after the finals draw which is expected to be held in December 2025):
- Ghana (CAF Group I Winner)
- Jordan (AFC Group B Runner Up)
- New Zealand (Oceania Winner)
- 4 x UEFA Playoff Winners (assuming the highest ranked teams of the November 2025 ranking: Italy? Türkiye? Ukraine? Sweden? With Wales, Serbia, Hungary and Poland being the next highest ranked teams)
- 1 x CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner (assuming the highest ranked teams of the predicted July 2025 ranking, one from: Jamaica? Honduras? El Salvador? Curaçao? Haiti?)
- 1 or 2 x AFC qualifier (again assuming the highest ranked teams of the predicted July 2025 ranking, from: Saudi Arabia? Iraq? United Arab Emirates? Oman? Indonesia?)
- 2 x Intercontinental Playoff Winners
Only notable change is that Panama drop to pot 3.
No comments:
Post a Comment