December 2009: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Central African Republic	200	134	66
Solomon Islands	172	119	53
Guinea-Bissau	194	141	53
Tahiti	194	149	45
Tajikistan	165	125	40
Papua New Guinea	203	166	37
Niger	163	130	33
New Caledonia	147	117	30
Jamaica	81	52	29
Libya	115	86	29

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Gabon	48	90	-42
Luxembourg	128	169	-41
Burkina Faso	49	88	-39
Faroe Islands	117	154	-37
Nicaragua	133	168	-35
Benin	59	93	-34
Northern Ireland	40	71	-31
Bangladesh	149	180	-31
Algeria	26	56	-30
Sri Lanka	151	181	-30

Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Japan	43	17	26
Korea Republic	52	32	20
Saudi Arabia	63	43	20
Iran	64	44	20
Turkey	41	23	18
Sweden	42	26	16
Venezuela	50	37	13
Denmark	28	17	11
Romania	36	26	10
Finland	55	45	10

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Gabon	48	90	-42
Burkina Faso	49	88	-39
Northern Ireland	40	71	-31
Algeria	26	56	-30
Latvia	45	70	-25
Slovenia	31	47	-16
Slovakia	33	48	-15
Egypt	24	38	-14
Israel	26	40	-14
Mali	47	60	-13

Matches I would have liked to see before the next ranking:

Japan - Northern Ireland
Korea Republic - Latvia
Saudi Arabia - Gabon
Iran - Algeria
Turkey - Slovenia
Sweden - Slovakia
Venezuela - Burkina Faso
Denmark - Israel
Romania - Hungary
Finland - Benin

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: December 2009 final preview

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Included: matches up to and including December 10th, 2009 - the official deadline for matches. However, FIFA could include more matches, but no later than December 13th.

Best movers:

24 - Nepal
17 - Jordan
16 - Bangladesh

Worst movers:

-35 - Grenada
-23 - Cuba
-14 - Barbados

Best movers in the top 50:

5 - Egypt
3 - Ghana
2 - Chile, Ukraine, Algeria and Slovenia

Worst movers in the top 50:

-4 - Romania
-3 - Bulgaria
-2 - Mexico, Czech Republic, Denmark and Ecuador

Iran drop out of the AFC top 5, replaced by Saudi Arabia.
Egypt overtake Algeria for 4th in Africa and 1st in the Arab world. Some consolation...

Two teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Algeria (26th - 28th in November 2009)
Comoros (176th - 178th in November 2009)

Two teams will return to their worst ever ranking:

Romania (36th - first achieved in October 2009)
Guinea-Bissau (193rd - first achieved in February 2007)

Two teams will have their worst ever ranking:

Liberia (161st - 160th in October 2009)
Dominican Republic (190th - 188th in September 2006)

December 2009 rank - Team - December 2009 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Spain	1627	0	5
2	Brazil	1568	0	-24
3	Netherlands	1288	0	9
4	Italy	1209	0	-6
5	Portugal	1176	0	-5
6	Germany	1173	0	3
7	France	1117	0	-5
8	Argentina	1085	0	0
9	England	1076	0	13
10	Croatia	1042	0	-8
11	Cameroon	1035	0	0
12	Russia	1026	1	7
13	Greece	1016	-1	-12
14	USA	980	0	0
15	Chile	936	2	10
16	Côte d'Ivoire	934	0	7
17	Mexico	931	-2	0
18	Switzerland	924	0	0
19	Serbia	916	1	16
20	Uruguay	909	-1	8
21	Australia	863	0	0
22	Nigeria	848	0	0
22	Ukraine	848	2	6
24	Egypt	833	5	13
25	Czech Republic	828	-2	-15
26	Algeria	823	2	0
26	Israel	823	-1	-14
28	Denmark	820	-2	-15
29	Paraguay	806	1	-10
30	Bulgaria	801	-3	-26
31	Slovenia	767	2	11
32	Norway	760	-1	-20
33	Slovakia	751	1	-4
34	Ghana	747	3	8
35	Republic of Ireland	746	1	0
36	Romania	745	-4	-18
37	Ecuador	738	-2	-12
37	Honduras	738	1	0
39	Colombia	736	1	0
40	Northern Ireland	730	-1	-7
41	Turkey	728	0	-1
42	Sweden	721	0	-6
43	Japan	709	0	0
44	Costa Rica	701	0	7
45	Latvia	677	0	7
46	Scotland	665	0	0
47	Mali	662	0	0
48	Gabon	660	0	0
49	Burkina Faso	650	0	0
50	Venezuela	646	0	0
51	Bosnia-Herzegovina	642	0	-1
52	Korea Republic	625	0	0
53	Tunisia	614	0	1
54	Hungary	613	1	10
55	Finland	592	-1	-13
56	Bolivia	573	1	0
56	Canada	573	1	0
58	Poland	556	-2	-19
59	Benin	532	0	-2
60	Bahrain	524	1	0
61	Austria	523	1	3
62	Lithuania	521	-2	-4
63	Saudi Arabia	509	2	8
64	Iran	507	-1	-11
65	FYR Macedonia	495	1	4
66	Belgium	492	-2	-12
67	Morocco	477	0	1
68	Cyprus	471	0	-1
68	Peru	471	2	4
70	Panama	469	-1	1
71	Togo	467	-1	0
72	Mozambique	462	0	0
73	Guinea	459	2	9
74	Montenegro	456	-1	0
75	Uganda	455	3	27
76	Uzbekistan	440	0	3
77	Wales	420	2	-7
78	El Salvador	412	4	5
79	Oman	410	4	7
80	Belarus	406	0	-20
81	Jamaica	404	-7	-47
82	New Zealand	400	-5	-33
82	Trinidad and Tobago	400	-1	-21
84	Zambia	380	6	22
85	Korea DPR	377	-1	-22
85	South Africa	377	1	0
87	Qatar	376	0	2
88	Iraq	364	0	0
89	Senegal	361	0	-1
90	Haiti	349	-5	-35
91	Iceland	346	1	0
91	Syria	346	0	-2
93	China PR	340	4	12
94	Moldova	338	-1	0
95	Angola	337	-1	0
96	Albania	336	2	9
97	Cape Verde Islands	331	4	15
98	Kenya	327	7	35
99	Malawi	326	-5	-11
100	Armenia	321	-1	-2
101	Congo	320	-1	0
102	Estonia	308	0	5
102	Rwanda	308	8	53
104	Kuwait	301	-1	3
105	Thailand	296	2	7
106	Tanzania	289	0	-2
107	Congo DR	271	2	10
108	Sudan	268	3	21
109	Zimbabwe	265	-1	0
110	Singapore	260	1	13
111	Jordan	256	17	71
112	United Arab Emirates	248	-1	1
113	Namibia	246	1	0
114	Azerbaijan	237	2	0
115	Libya	232	3	4
116	Gambia	224	6	6
117	Faroe Islands	222	3	2
118	Botswana	219	3	0
119	Cuba	218	-23	-113
120	Indonesia	206	7	8
121	Ethiopia	205	10	23
121	Guatemala	205	4	2
123	Vietnam	203	7	19
124	Georgia	202	1	-1
125	Kazakhstan	200	-6	-26
126	Burundi	195	-2	-19
127	Guyana	191	-10	-41
128	Luxembourg	185	0	0
129	Barbados	181	-14	-57
130	Antigua and Barbuda	176	-7	-40
130	Yemen	176	2	-1
132	Fiji	167	1	-7
133	Nicaragua	165	1	0
134	India	158	1	-5
135	Equatorial Guinea	152	0	-11
135	Swaziland	152	3	0
137	Sierra Leone	145	4	8
138	Grenada	144	-35	-154
139	Myanmar	142	-4	-21
140	Turkmenistan	139	0	0
141	Bermuda	138	3	5
141	Maldives	138	5	6
143	Hong Kong	137	-2	0
144	Suriname	133	0	0
145	Chad	130	2	0
146	Malta	128	3	0
147	Lebanon	126	0	-4
147	New Caledonia	126	-8	-21
149	Bangladesh	122	16	39
150	Sri Lanka	121	4	13
151	Lesotho	120	-1	0
152	Nepal	112	24	59
152	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	112	-9	-24
154	Liechtenstein	110	-2	0
155	Vanuatu	108	2	7
156	St. Kitts and Nevis	107	3	13
157	Pakistan	106	4	18
158	Madagascar	105	-3	0
159	Kyrgyzstan	103	-3	0
160	Malaysia	102	-8	-8
161	Liberia	98	-3	0
162	Chinese Taipei	93	-2	0
163	Eritrea	92	-12	-23
163	Niger	92	1	6
165	Puerto Rico	87	-3	0
166	Tajikistan	86	-4	-1
167	Philippines	83	-2	0
168	Netherlands Antilles	80	0	0
169	Mauritania	70	0	0
170	Somalia	64	-3	-18
171	Mongolia	61	-1	0
172	Solomon Islands	60	-1	0
173	Belize	57	0	0
173	Palestine	57	2	3
175	Cambodia	56	-3	-3
176	Comoros	46	2	0
177	Turks and Caicos Islands	45	2	0
178	Laos	44	-4	-11
178	Seychelles	44	2	0
180	Bahamas	42	-3	-5
181	Mauritius	40	1	0
182	Samoa	38	1	0
183	Cayman Islands	36	1	0
184	Cook Islands	34	1	0
184	Guam	34	1	0
186	St. Lucia	32	2	0
187	Macau	31	2	0
188	Tonga	28	3	0
189	Djibouti	27	-4	-7
190	Dominican Republic	26	-9	-15
191	British Virgin Islands	25	1	0
191	Brunei Darussalam	25	1	0
193	Guinea-Bissau	20	-3	-9
194	Afghanistan	19	-2	-6
194	Tahiti	19	1	0
196	Bhutan	17	0	0
197	Dominica	12	0	0
198	Aruba	11	0	0
199	US Virgin Islands	8	0	0
200	Central African Republic	4	0	0
200	Timor-Leste	4	0	0
202	Andorra	3	0	0
203	American Samoa	0	0	0
203	Anguilla	0	0	0
203	Montserrat	0	0	0
203	Papua New Guinea	0	0	0
203	San Marino	0	0	0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

UEFA looking to avoid repeat of Armenia - Azerbaijan problems

According to News.az, Azerbaijan will not play Armenia and Russia will not play Georgia in the EURO 2012 qualifiers.

The teams will be kept apart in the draw for the qualifying groups, the secretary general of the Georgian Football Federation, Revaz Arvelazde, said on Thursday, after meetings with UEFA, according to Russian newspaper Vzglyad.

Armenia and Azerbaijan were drawn together in Group A of the Euro 2008 qualifiers, but both matches were canceled after the two countries couldn't agree on match venues. Armenia wanted the games played on a normal home and away basis but Azerbaijan refused to host the Armenians and proposed a neutral ground for both matches.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Playoff seedings to be announced in advance

The Fifa general secretary, Jérôme Valcke said in a press conference in Abu Dhabi:

"Even before the qualifiers for the World Cup in 2014 start, we will say the seedings will be under the following rule."

He was talking about the seeding process in the European play-offs.

Source: The National

That's obviously a step in the right direction. Will FIFA go one better and also announce the final seeding criteria before the start of the 2014 World Cup qualifiers?

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

AFC Asian Cup 2011: Seeding for the final draw

The draw for the final tournament will take place in April 2010 in Doha, Qatar. The hosts will be seeded.

Already qualified:

Qatar - hosts
Iraq - 2007 AFC Asian Cup winner
Saudi Arabia - 2007 AFC Asian Cup runner-up
Korea Republic - 2007 AFC Asian Cup runner-up

India - 2008 AFC Challenge Cup winner

Uzbekistan - Group C qualifier
Syria - Group D qualifier

Going by the current standings, these are the teams most likely to join the 7 qualifiers:

Bahrain and Japan from Group A
Kuwait and Australia from Group B
United Arab Emirates from Group C
China from Group D
Iran and Singapore from Group E
Korea DPR from the 2010 AFC Challenge Cup

In 2004, teams were seeded using results from Lebanon 2000. In 2007, teams were seeded using the FIFA ranking.

Seeding based on the results of 2007 AFC Asian Cup:

Pot 1: Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Japan, Australia, Iran, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: China, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Korea DPR
Pot 4: Syria, Kuwait, Singapore, India

If AFC choose the March 2010 FIFA ranking to seed the teams, the interim pots would look like this:

Pot 1: Qatar, Iraq, Australia, Japan
Pot 2: Korea Republic, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iran
Pot 3: Uzbekistan, China, Kuwait, Syria
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, India

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

EURO 2012: Final draw coefficients (4 December 2009)

The coefficients for the EURO 2012 final draw will take into account results from:

EURO 2008 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

Hosts Poland (23806) and Ukraine (28029) will be seeded for the final draw, along with 2008 winners, Spain, if they qualify.

For the 13 teams going to South Africa I've added three matches and 48000 points.
For all teams except Poland and Ukraine I've added 8 matches and 80000 points for EURO 2012.

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points

 1  1 Spain              26506
 2  3 Netherlands        24693
 3  2 Germany            24617
 4  9 Russia             23751
 5  6 Croatia            23702
 6  5 England            23269
 7  4 Italy              22996
 8 10 Greece             21914
 9  7 Portugal           21904
10 12 Sweden             21674
11  8 France             21661
12 11 Czech Republic     21381
13 14 Serbia             21047
14 13 Switzerland        20963
15 15 Turkey             20761
16 21 Finland            20672
17 16 Denmark            20602
18 19 Israel             20501
19 17 Slovakia           20259
20 20 Bulgaria           19939
21 23 Ireland            19642
22 25 Northern Ireland   19439
23 18 Romania            19288
24 27 Bosnia-Herzegovina 19018
25 22 Norway             19018
26 24 Scotland           18951
27 28 Slovenia           18896
28 29 Latvia             18844
29 26 Austria            18465
30 30 Hungary            18349
31 31 Lithuania          17431
32 32 Belarus            17418
33 34 Wales              17232
34 33 Belgium            16418
35 36 Cyprus             15836
36 35 Macedonia          15684
37 38 Albania            14444
38 37 Montenegro         14375
39 39 Estonia            13934
40 42 Iceland            13542
41 44 Kazakhstan         13398
42 41 Moldova            12902
43 43 Armenia            12705
44 40 Georgia            12602
45 46 Azerbaijan         12450
46 47 Luxembourg         11905
47 45 Liechtenstein      11355
48 49 Faroe Islands      10975
49 48 Malta              10539
50 50 Andorra             8947
51 51 San Marino          8622

If the top 14 teams from the EURO 2012 preliminary draw qualify, these would be the pots for the final draw:

Pot 1: Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Netherlands
Pot 2: Germany, Russia, Croatia, England
Pot 3: Italy, Greece, Portugal, Sweden
Pot 4: France, Czech Republic, Serbia, Switzerland

A group with Spain, Germany, Italy and France would look nice.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2010 World Cup seeding: Based on feeling

Just read this in the Guardian:

The Fifa general secretary, Jérôme Valcke said: "In the past the seedings have been determined by a mixture of world rankings and performances in past World Cups but this time the feeling was the October rankings most closely represented the best teams in the tournament."

Had the current rankings been used then England would have missed out and France been seeded, but Valcke is adamant this was the fairest way to conduct the draw. "We made the decision last month that the October rankings would be used because they were fairer – countries who had been involved in the play-offs would have had an unfair advantage because they would have played more games and that affects their rankings," he said.

"This is not a case of wanting Holland to be seeded instead of France, just that the feeling was the October seedings represented the best teams."

What will happen if a less glamorous/marketable team makes it to the top 7 in the October 2013 FIFA ranking? I guess they will change the seeding criteria because it would hurt their feeling(s).

I hope some journalist will ask Sepp Blatter/Jérôme Valcke these three questions and get some clear answers:

1. Will the October 2013 FIFA ranking be used to seed the teams for the 2014 FIFA World Cup final draw?
2. Will the October 2013 FIFA ranking be used to seed the European runners-up in the UEFA play-offs?
3. Will this be stipulated in the 2014 FIFA World Cup regulations?

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.