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Wednesday, March 29, 2023

FIFA ranking: April 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish this first ranking of 2023 next Thursday April 6th. This final preview contains 262 matches, out of 284 matches played since December 19th 2022. Due to Brazil's unexpected friendly loss to Morocco, world champion Argentina is the new top dog, closely followed by France and Brazil.

Included in this ranking will be the final of a friendly three nations tournament in Nepal between host country Nepal and Laos, played coming Friday. The points of each team after this match, depending on the match result:

        NEP         LAO
win Nepal 963,10 899,58
pso-win Nepal 961,85 902,08
pso-win Laos 960.60 903,33
win Laos         958,10 904,58


One team dropped to a new low:

Liechtenstein (199 - 198 in December 2022)


Two teams reached again their highest position:

Argentina (1 in March 2007)
Senegal (18 in February 2022)


Best movers:

10 - Central African Republic
7 - Namibia, Malaysia


Worst movers:

-9 - Cameroon
-8 - Mali, Madagascar


Best movers in the top 50:

6 - Algeria, Scotland, Romania, Canada


Worst movers in the top 50:

-9 - Cameroon
-7 - Costa Rica
-5 - Nigeria


Stay safe and healthy everybody !


pos Apr.

team

pts Apr.

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Argentina

1840,92

1

2,54

2

France

1838,45

1

15,06

3

Brazil

1834,21

-2

-6,56

4

Belgium

1792,53

0

11,23

5

England

1792,43

0

18,24

6

Netherlands

1731,23

0

-9,69

7

Croatia

1730,02

0

2,40

8

Italy

1713,66

0

-9,90

9

Portugal

1707,22

0

4,68

10

Spain

1682,85

0

-9,86

11

Morocco

1677,79

0

5,44

12

Switzerland

1664,24

0

9,22

13

USA

1653,78

0

1,04

14

Germany

1647,42

0

0,51

15

Mexico

1633,87

0

-1,91

16

Uruguay

1631,29

0

3,84

17

Colombia

1617,08

0

4,30

18

Senegal

1613,21

1

9,23

19

Denmark

1594,53

-1

-13,58

20

Japan

1588,59

0

-4,49

21

Peru

1561,20

0

-3,10

22

Sweden

1558,70

1

0,25

23

Poland

1553,76

-1

-6,07

24

Iran

1553,23

0

1,50

25

Serbia

1541,52

4

15,06

26

Wales

1538,95

2

8,67

27

Korea Republic

1536,01

-2

-3,48

28

Tunisia

1535,76

2

9,56

29

Australia

1532,80

-2

-1,17

30

Ukraine

1530,04

-4

-6,95

31

Chile

1511,32

0

4,41

32

Austria

1508,24

2

11,00

33

Hungary

1504,24

3

10,91

34

Algeria

1504,19

6

17,47

35

Egypt

1500,62

4

10,28

36

Scotland

1500,52

6

23,58

37

Russia

1495,54

0

4,28

38

Czech Republic

1495,04

0

4,43

39

Costa Rica

1491,10

-7

-9,08

40

Nigeria

1480,80

-5

-13,52

41

Ecuador

1478,49

0

1,17

42

Cameroon

1470,21

-9

-29,09

43

Turkey

1465,70

1

0,32

44

Norway

1463,77

-1

-11,28

45

Cote d'Ivoire

1449,95

2

8,46

46

Romania

1444,58

6

11,94

47

Canada

1442,66

6

11,02

48

Paraguay

1440,65

-2

-4,41

49

Republic of Ireland

1436,31

-1

-2,28

50

Burkina Faso

1433,91

0

-0,90

51

Slovakia

1433,77

3

8,19

52

Greece

1433,01

-1

-0,58

53

Mali

1430,75

-8

-18,30

54

Saudi Arabia

1421,46

-5

-16,67

55

Venezuela

1410,47

0

4,37

56

Finland

1405,31

0

-0,40

57

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1403,04

0

-0,47

58

Slovenia

1398,47

4

9,41

59

Panama

1398,20

2

6,50

60

Ghana

1396,01

-2

-4,01

61

Qatar

1388,62

-1

-4,94

62

Northern Ireland

1385,93

-3

-10,62

63

Jamaica

1378,61

1

-0,68

64

Iceland

1369,03

-1

-11,32

65

North Macedonia

1363,07

0

7,79

66

South Africa

1350,08

1

-0,28

67

Iraq

1349,05

1

6,66

68

Albania

1344,95

-2

-8,08

69

Montenegro

1343,28

0

4,13

70

Congo DR

1338,61

3

4,69

71

Cape Verde Islands

1337,05

1

1,00

72

United Arab Emirates

1336,28

-2

-2,20

73

Oman

1333,56

2

12,32

74

Uzbekistan

1318,36

3

5,72

75

El Salvador

1318,30

-1

-8,56

76

Bulgaria

1315,74

-5

-20,97

77

Georgia

1311,51

1

5,53

78

Israel

1307,41

-2

-8,26

79

Guinea

1306,02

4

15,55

80

Honduras

1300,38

1

-0,40

81

China PR

1297,98

-1

-7,08

82

Gabon

1296,74

-3

-8,73

83

Bolivia

1296,42

-1

1,46

84

Jordan

1293,26

0

3,27

85

Bahrain

1282,05

0

1,78

86

Zambia

1280,54

2

15,39

87

Haiti

1275,96

0

6,89

88

Curacao

1272,26

-2

-6,38

89

Uganda

1257,30

0

-3,39

90

Syria

1246,75

0

-4,71

91

Luxembourg

1245,78

1

0,43

92

Benin

1240,35

-1

-7,12

93

Palestine

1239,19

0

5,47

94

Equatorial Guinea

1232,78

4

17,12

95

Vietnam

1229,69

1

1,06

96

Kyrgyzstan

1225,44

-2

-7,47

97

Armenia

1224,08

-2

-7,68

98

Belarus

1210,17

-1

-11,51

99

Lebanon

1202,74

1

-5,73

100

New Zealand

1201,06

5

7,08

101

Trinidad and Tobago

1200,85

3

5,56

102

India

1200,66

4

8,57

103

Kenya

1200,18

-2

-2,08

104

Congo

1197,89

-5

-10,90

105

Mauritania

1194,28

-2

-3,30

106

Namibia

1190,49

7

26,36

107

Kosovo

1186,26

0

-0,77

108

Estonia

1182,50

1

-3,77

109

Tajikistan

1182,23

-1

-4,79

110

Madagascar

1181,21

-8

-19,53

111

Cyprus

1179,45

-1

-5,72

112

Kazakhstan

1177,05

3

13,96

113

Guinea-Bissau

1172,30

5

13,53

114

Thailand

1171,88

-3

-1,52

115

Korea DPR

1169,96

-3

0

116

Guatemala

1163,27

3

5,71

117

Sierra Leone

1161,79

-1

1,48

118

Angola

1158,57

-1

-0,24

119

Mozambique

1154,64

-5

-8,93

120

Gambia

1150,99

6

13,42

121

Libya

1145,82

-1

-10,92

122

Central African Republic

1145,69

10

28,72

123

Niger

1142,57

-1

-5,96

124

Azerbaijan

1142,25

-3

-9,57

125

Faroe Islands

1138,98

-2

-7,33

126

Zimbabwe

1138,56

-1

0

127

Malawi

1133,13

-3

-11,84

128

Sudan

1132,62

0

5,28

129

Togo

1129,81

-2

0,89

130

Tanzania

1125,89

0

6,00

131

Comoros

1111,89

-2

-11,29

132

Latvia

1110,55

1

-6,41

133

Antigua and Barbuda

1107,50

-2

-9,51

134

Solomon Islands

1103,61

2

7,91

135

Rwanda

1098,26

2

4,60

136

Philippines

1097,66

-2

-15,49

137

Turkmenistan

1095,20

-2

-5,27

138

Malaysia

1082,13

7

15,53

139

St. Kitts and Nevis

1081,40

1

4,49

140

Nicaragua

1079,22

2

7,48

141

Suriname

1075,73

-2

-1,57

142

Ethiopia

1075,41

-4

-15,78

143

Kuwait

1070,71

5

14,07

144

Eswatini

1069,89

-1

-1,00

145

Burundi

1069,71

-4

-5,56

146

Lithuania

1068,53

-2

-0,59

147

Hong Kong

1057,03

-1

-5,36

148

Liberia

1049,94

2

0,28

149

Lesotho

1046,41

-2

-14,99

150

Indonesia

1046,14

1

12,24

151

Dominican Republic

1038,13

1

6,27

152

Botswana

1037,31

-3

-17,12

153

Andorra

1030,52

0

-0,61

154

Maldives

1024,72

2

3,54

155

Afghanistan

1023,04

0

0

156

Chinese Taipei

1021,02

1

0

157

Yemen

1020,37

-3

-3,15

158

Singapore

1014,04

2

7,94

159

Papua New Guinea

1007,46

-1

0

160

Myanmar

998,41

-1

-7,75

161

New Caledonia

995,47

0

-0,11

162

Tahiti

995,22

0

0,11

163

South Sudan

993,36

2

9,38

164

Vanuatu

986,65

0

1,03

165

Cuba

986,19

3

7,54

166

Puerto Rico

985,41

4

11,09

167

Barbados

983,96

-1

1,69

168

Fiji

980,48

-5

-8,95

169

St. Lucia

976,48

3

11,75

170

Guyana

975,81

1

7,07

171

Moldova

972,91

3

14,03

172

Malta

972,79

-5

-6,16

173

Bermuda

966,27

-4

-11,20

174

Grenada

962,98

-1

-0,74

175

Nepal

960,88

0

3,94

176

Cambodia

948,59

1

1,93

177

Belize

939,94

-1

-10,94

178

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

938,28

0

-6,97

179

Montserrat

938,02

0

-2,76

180

Mauritius

932,02

0

0

181

Chad

930,22

0

0

182

Macau

917,93

0

-4,17

183

Mongolia

911,74

0

-1,81

184

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

906,70

2

-1,48

185

Bhutan

906,36

0

-4,60

186

Dominica

904,84

-2

-6,67

187

Laos

901,80

0

-3,71

188

American Samoa

900,27

0

0

189

Cook Islands

899,33

0

0

190

Samoa

894,26

1

0

191

Brunei Darussalam

891,12

-1

-6,90

192

Bangladesh

885,01

0

0,56

193

Djibouti

875,05

0

0

194

Tonga

861,81

2

0

195

Pakistan

861,18

0

-3,54

196

Timor-Leste

860,45

1

0

197

Seychelles

860,15

2

0,59

198

Cayman Islands

859,83

-4

-5,89

199

Liechtenstein

855,77

-1

-4,07

200

Eritrea

855,56

1

0

201

Gibraltar

854,72

-1

-3,32

201

Somalia

854,72

3

0

203

Bahamas

852,90

0

-1,90

204

Aruba

850,88

-2

-4,49

205

Turks and Caicos Islands

839,39

1

7,39

206

Guam

838,33

-1

0

207

Sri Lanka

825,25

0

0

208

US Virgin Islands

816,59

0

-7,38

209

British Virgin Islands

804,11

0

-5,21

210

Anguilla

785,66

0

-5,08

211

San Marino

759,12

0

-4,03



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

20 comments:

  1. Hello. Is it possible to see all 284 on FIFA site or elsewhere?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Not that I know. That's the whole problem with predicting the ranking: I have to make a best guess which friendlies are included. All competitive matches are of course always included.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Once the new ranking is published and I have had the opportunity to compare FIFA's with mine then you can find on the Important Info page (see menu at the top of this blog) a link to the updated excel-sheet with all included matches in the latest published ranking and the detailed points calculation per match.
    The currently downloadable sheet however contains the matches included in the December ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thank you! When can we expect updated EURO qualifying percentages?

    ReplyDelete
  5. When will be next FIFA mens ranking publish?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Next ranking will be published on July 20th, so after the Gold Cup has been played. It seems FIFA has decreased the publishing frequency considerably (to maybe only once per quarter).

      Delete
  6. Hi Ed, after re-calculating included matches for this month's ranking, I still can't get my calculation exactly the same as in the FIFA website. The nations which have major points differences are

    Mexico (2.04 more)
    Ecuador (0.36 more)
    Guatemala (2.41 less)

    Do you know what happened in the calculation for these nations?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi Fauzan, Rodrigo mentioned in another comment section that Mexico was sanctioned this January 2023 for playing with an ineligible player in friendly matches in April 2022 and October 2021. A draw against Guatemala in April was therefore converted to a 3-0 forfeited defeat.
    See here

    ReplyDelete
  8. The forfeited 3-0 loss sanctions for Mexico are applied on:
    friendly 2021-10-27 MEX-ECU 2:3
    friendly 2022-04-27 MEX-GUA 0:0

    When you use the points of Mexico and Ecuador on the moment the sanction was applied (January 2023: 1635,7848 resp. 1477,3179) to recalculate the first match with a 0:3 result I get a difference for MEX of +0.400 and for ECU of -0.400.
    When you use the points of Mexico and Guatemala on the moment the sanction was applied (January 2023: 1635,7848 resp. 1157,5591) to recalculate the second match with a 0:3 result I get a difference for MEX of -2.436 and for GUA of 2.436.

    When you apply the corrections for MEX of (0.400 - 2.436 =) -2.036, for GUA 2.436 and for ECU -0.400 on their January 2023 points and recalculate the April ranking then it still doesn't fit correctly. MEX has a difference of 0.04 in the April ranking, ECU a difference of -0.04. All other differences are solved.

    Only when you apply for Mexico starting points of 1645 in the first match recalculation, these 0.04 differences disappear and everything matches. Anybody has any clue as to why we should use 1645 for Mexico ?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Summary of the comparison between the published April ranking and my own calculations presented in the final preview above:

    FIFA included and I excluded:
    2023-03-03 Grenada - St. Lucia 1:2 friendly in Grenada

    FIFA excluded and I included:
    2022-12-30 Iraq - Kuwait 1:0 friendly in Iraq
    2023-02-22 Grenada - Barbados 1:1 friendly in Grenada
    2023-02-25 Malawi - Lesotho 1:1 friendly in Malawi
    2023-03-11 Jamaica - Trinidad and Tobago 0:1 friendly in Jamaica
    2023-03-12 Guatemala - Panama 1:1 friendly in USA
    2023-03-15 Bangladesh - Malawi 1:1 friendly in Saudi Arabia
    2023-03-19 Ethiopia - Rwanda 1:0 friendly in Ethiopia
    2023-03-20 Tahiti - New Caledonia 0:2 friendly in Tahiti
    2023-03-23 Tahiti - New Caledonia 2:1 friendly in Tahiti

    Also the points of Mexico, Ecuador and Guatemala are adjusted in January 2023 because of FIFA's decision to sanction Mexico for fielding an ineligible player in two friendlies:
    2021-10-27 Mexico - Ecuador 2:3 friendly in USA
    2022-04-27 Mexico - Guatemala 0:0 friendly in USA

    Both friendlies became 0:3 forfeit losses for Mexico and the recalculated matches with the January points totals and 0:3 losses showed that the following correction terms were applied in January:
    MEX -2,076
    GUA +2,436
    ECU -0,360

    In the Important info section of this blog you can find a download link to the updated detailed points calculation of the April 2023 ranking.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Care to explain how a match which Ecuador already won and is now awarded changes their points?

      Delete
    2. That's how FIFA processes first played and (long) afterwards forfeited matches: they recalculate the forfeited match result (0:3) with the points of each team on the moment the decision to sanction is taken and correct each team's points tally in January with the difference between the points exchanged for the forfeited result minus the points exchanged for the original match result.
      In this case, although in the match result nothing changes (2:3 becomes 0:3), the points of Mexico and Ecuador in January 2023 were such that Ecuador now got less points from that match than in October 2021. So their points tally in January was corrected with a negative term of 0.360 points.
      Strange, but completely according to FIFA's 'rules' (which are btw never explained anywhere, it is just from past experience that I know how they handle such cases).

      Delete
    3. Anyone know how these numbers are obtained? If I calculate the awarded matches on this date I get different numbers, namely -3.2375 and 3.2375 for Mexico and Ecuador instead of the -3.6379 and 3.6379 for original match, actually giving Mexico a positive effect of using an illegal player of 0.4003 and Ecuador a negative effect. And then -4.3128 and 4.3128 for Mexico and Ecuador rather than the original -1.8761 and 1.8761 for the original match. This would mean a loss of -2.0363 for Mexico, a loss of -0.4003 for Ecuador and a 2.4357 gain for Guatemala, different from the correction applied above by Ed at least for Mexico and Ecuador.

      Delete
    4. Sorry, the -4.3128 and 4.3128 are for Mexico and Guatemala, not Mexico and Ecuador for the second match.

      Delete
    5. I noted the same anomaly already in my comment above from April 7th 15:58. When using 1645 instead of 1635 as Mexico's starting points for the recalculation of the October friendly against Ecuador, the 0.04 differences are solved and FIFA's April ranking can be matched completely (on the given 2 decimals).
      But why not use 1635 which is after all Mexico's points tally in January ? I can't think of an explanation.

      Delete
  10. Ed. What coefficient FIFA gave to 2022 Finalissima and which coefficient thay use for Nations League Groups and Final 4?

    ReplyDelete
  11. I assume you mean the match-weight factor (I).

    The UEFA-CONMEBOL Finalissima last year was for ranking purposes considered as a friendly so had an I of 10.
    UEFA NL group matches have always had an I of 15. CONCACAF NL group matches had in the first edition (2020) an I of 25, but the second and most recent edition (2023) also had I=15 for the group matches. The Nations League Final Four matches, both for UEFA and CONCACAF, have an I of 25.

    ReplyDelete