FIFA Ranking: July 2013 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking of 4 July.

Only 4 matches left: the final and 3rd place final of the Confederations Cup, Swaziland - Angola (CHAN qualifier - considered friendly) and Grenada - Dominica (friendly).

This is how the points could change for the 8 teams involved:

Spain (L: 1532, PSO L: 1566, PSO W: 1599, W: 1633)
Italy (L: 1078, PSO L: 1110, PSO W: 1142, W: 1174)
Brazil (L: 1005, PSO L: 1035, PSO W: 1065, W: 1095)
Uruguay (L: 980, PSO L: 1016, PSO W: 1052, W: 1088)
Angola (L: 368, D: 372, W: 380)
Grenada (L: 264, D: 273, W: 291)
Dominica (L: 124, D: 137, W: 164)
Swaziland (L: 60, D: 75, W: 107)

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF qualifying format to be changed?

In May 2013, CAF announced the qualifying format for the 2015 Africa Cup of Nations (hosted by Morocco).

With all the 2014 FIFA match dates used for the 2015 qualifiers, it means the preliminaries for the 2017 ACN and 2018 World Cup will only start in 2015. The preliminary draw for the 2018 FIFA World Cup will take place on 24 or 25 July 2015.

CAF can't use the 2010 WCQ system because back then the World Cup and the Nations Cup where held in the same year.

Should FIFA upgrade regional tournaments?

FIFA have recognized CHAN matches as "A" matches, although the squad are made up exclusively of players active in the national leagues. Most of the top African teams have few local players. I consider this to be a mistake as it hurts the ranking of African teams, but that's what they asked for after all.

I think FIFA should upgrade the status of regional tournaments. Currently, these matches are considered friendlies (importance multiplier of 1), although they are played under strict rules (at most 3 substitutions) and usually fans place a lot of importance on these competitions.

10000 sims on the road to Brazil (21 June 2013)

More info in the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Here's the outcome:

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the African play-offs
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs
2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances
2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations
2016 UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw pots simulations

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2016 UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw pots simulations (21 June 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

I know the EURO 2016 qualifying format will most likely change, but since I already had the code in place, here are the updated simulations.

Pot 6:

100% - Andorra
100% - San Marino
100% - Gibraltar
99.92% - Malta
99.55% - Liechtenstein
98.14% - Faroe Islands
97.69% - Luxembourg
81.87% - Kazakhstan
17.08% - Cyprus
5.7% - Azerbaijan
0.02% - Georgia
0.01% - Moldova
0.01% - Iceland
0.01% - FYR Macedonia

2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations (21 June 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Most improved since the 12 April simulations:

32.25% - Italy
30.49% - Belgium
19.55% - Chile
19.26% - Colombia
13.1% - Uruguay

2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances (21 June 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Most improved since the 12 April simulations:

58.98% - Iran
37.19% - Algeria
34.94% - Costa Rica
31.23% - Ukraine
28.41% - Australia
23.28% - Ghana
22.32% - Chile
22.02% - USA
21.31% - Belgium
17.54% - Uruguay
13.81% - Burkina Faso
11.88% - Ethiopia
8.84% - Nigeria
8.6% - Portugal
7.17% - Bosnia-Herzegovina