FIFA Ranking: May 2012 probable ranking

Next update: 4 May 2012.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 May.

Only 6 matches left before the deadline.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings.  Here's the list of results:

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

15/Apr Egypt - Mauritania 1 (Friendly)
17/Apr United Arab Emirates - Iran 2 (Friendly)
17/Apr Egypt - Iraq 1 (Friendly)
25/Apr Guatemala - Paraguay 2 (Friendly)
28/Apr Malaysia - Sri Lanka 1 (Friendly)
02/May Iran - Mozambique 1 (Friendly)

Team - Minimum points - Maximum points

Paraguay	786	801
Egypt	539	578
Iran	534	568
Iraq	468	493
Guatemala	396	431
Mozambique	300	348
United Arab Emirates	270	298
Malaysia	141	153
Sri Lanka	74	95
Mauritania	4	79

For the other 198 teams the May points are already set.

Argentina will climb 1 spot to 9th, with Denmark dropping to 10th.

Probable May 2012 rank - Team - Probable May 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Spain	1442	0	0
2	Germany	1345	0	0
3	Uruguay	1309	0	0
4	Netherlands	1207	0	0
5	Portugal	1190	0	0
6	Brazil	1165	0	0
7	England	1132	0	0
8	Croatia	1114	0	0
9	Argentina	1076	1	10
10	Denmark	1069	-1	0
11	Russia	1049	0	0
12	Italy	1041	0	0
13	Chile	968	0	1
14	Greece	961	0	0
15	Côte d'Ivoire	951	0	0
16	France	938	0	0
17	Sweden	931	0	0
18	Republic of Ireland	891	0	0
18	Switzerland	891	0	0
20	Mexico	867	0	-1
21	Australia	862	0	0
22	Ghana	816	0	0
23	Colombia	812	0	-3
24	Norway	805	0	0
25	Paraguay	801	0	-2
26	Czech Republic	798	0	0
27	Bosnia-Herzegovina	792	0	0
28	Slovenia	781	0	0
29	USA	779	0	0
30	Japan	753	0	0
31	Korea Republic	746	0	0
32	Serbia	725	0	0
33	Turkey	720	0	0
34	Slovakia	716	1	0
35	Hungary	692	1	0
36	Peru	691	-2	-28
37	Ecuador	679	0	6
38	Algeria	667	0	0
39	Mali	656	0	0
40	Zambia	640	0	0
41	Wales	635	0	0
42	Gabon	621	0	0
43	Venezuela	613	0	-4
44	Belgium	604	0	0
45	Romania	603	0	0
46	Libya	602	0	0
47	Armenia	598	0	0
48	Scotland	596	0	0
49	El Salvador	591	0	2
50	Ukraine	589	-1	0
51	Egypt	578	4	12
52	Jamaica	576	4	11
53	Panama	575	-1	0
54	Estonia	574	-1	0
55	Montenegro	569	-1	0
56	Iran	568	-5	-10
57	Tunisia	563	0	0
58	Israel	558	0	0
59	Costa Rica	549	0	-8
60	Morocco	548	2	0
61	Sierra Leone	542	2	9
62	Honduras	540	-1	-10
63	Nigeria	537	-3	-17
64	Cameroon	526	0	0
65	Poland	514	0	0
66	China PR	508	0	5
67	South Africa	500	4	18
68	Guinea	499	-1	0
69	Belarus	494	-1	0
70	Uzbekistan	493	-1	0
71	Haiti	486	1	9
72	Austria	475	1	0
73	Iraq	468	-3	-20
74	Latvia	465	0	0
75	Canada	450	0	0
76	Cape Verde Islands	449	0	0
77	Senegal	448	0	0
78	Angola	440	0	0
79	Finland	430	0	0
80	Burkina Faso	426	0	0
81	Jordan	420	0	0
82	Trinidad and Tobago	419	1	2
83	Guatemala	396	-1	-23
84	Albania	384	0	0
84	Qatar	384	0	0
86	Korea DPR	376	0	-1
86	Kuwait	376	1	0
88	Togo	374	0	0
89	Lithuania	373	0	0
89	Saudi Arabia	373	0	0
91	Congo	366	0	0
92	Oman	363	1	2
93	Uganda	362	-1	0
94	Bahrain	361	-1	0
95	Georgia	360	0	0
96	Bulgaria	354	0	0
97	Vietnam	347	0	0
98	FYR Macedonia	342	0	0
99	Guyana	341	0	0
100	Antigua and Barbuda	338	0	0
100	Northern Ireland	338	0	0
102	Malawi	332	0	0
103	Equatorial Guinea	330	0	-1
104	Zimbabwe	328	0	0
105	Rwanda	327	0	0
106	Botswana	321	1	0
107	Bermuda	318	1	0
108	Bolivia	308	1	0
109	Azerbaijan	305	1	0
110	Mozambique	300	-4	-22
111	St. Kitts and Nevis	298	0	0
112	Liberia	296	0	3
113	Gambia	292	0	0
113	Sudan	292	0	0
115	Chad	289	0	0
116	Sao Tome e Principe	288	0	0
117	Kenya	285	0	0
118	Faroe Islands	284	0	0
119	Luxembourg	283	0	0
120	Namibia	281	1	0
121	Niger	274	2	0
122	Central African Republic	271	2	0
123	United Arab Emirates	270	-2	-11
124	Benin	269	1	0
124	Congo DR	269	-5	-14
126	Syria	268	0	0
127	Burundi	267	0	0
128	Liechtenstein	261	1	0
129	Lebanon	260	-1	-6
130	New Zealand	256	0	0
131	Iceland	255	0	0
131	Tajikistan	255	0	0
133	Cyprus	252	0	0
133	Suriname	252	0	0
135	Dominican Republic	247	0	0
136	Cuba	244	0	0
137	Kazakhstan	243	0	0
138	Ethiopia	236	0	0
138	Puerto Rico	236	0	0
140	Belize	235	0	0
141	Thailand	232	0	0
142	Moldova	222	0	0
143	Grenada	221	1	4
144	Turkmenistan	220	-2	-2
145	Tanzania	217	0	2
146	Nicaragua	211	0	0
147	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	191	0	0
148	Philippines	172	0	-10
149	Nepal	164	0	0
150	Malta	161	0	0
151	Indonesia	159	0	-1
152	Bangladesh	156	0	2
153	Malaysia	153	3	5
154	Palestine	151	-1	0
155	New Caledonia	150	-1	0
156	Samoa	149	-1	0
157	Yemen	148	-1	0
158	Singapore	145	0	0
159	Curacao	138	0	0
160	Fiji	133	0	0
161	Bahamas	132	0	0
161	Hong Kong	132	0	0
163	Lesotho	131	0	0
164	India	122	1	0
164	Maldives	122	0	-8
166	Madagascar	121	0	0
167	Aruba	120	0	0
168	Chinese Taipei	117	1	0
169	Guinea-Bissau	116	1	0
170	Afghanistan	115	-2	-3
171	Barbados	106	0	0
172	Vanuatu	103	0	0
173	Laos	96	2	0
174	Dominica	95	2	0
175	Cambodia	94	-2	-7
175	Myanmar	94	-2	-7
177	Mongolia	88	0	-2
177	Tonga	88	1	0
179	Swaziland	86	0	0
179	Tahiti	86	0	0
181	Pakistan	80	1	0
182	US Virgin Islands	78	1	0
183	Solomon Islands	75	1	0
184	Sri Lanka	74	-3	-8
185	Cayman Islands	72	0	0
186	American Samoa	61	0	0
187	Comoros	60	0	0
188	St. Lucia	52	0	0
189	Seychelles	47	0	0
190	Eritrea	45	0	0
191	Somalia	43	0	0
192	Mauritius	37	0	0
193	Papua New Guinea	34	0	0
194	Guam	32	0	0
195	Kyrgyzstan	29	0	0
196	Cook Islands	28	0	0
197	Djibouti	23	0	0
198	Macau	16	0	-3
199	British Virgin Islands	13	0	0
200	Anguilla	9	0	0
201	Bhutan	4	0	-2
201	Brunei Darussalam	4	1	0
201	Mauritania	4	1	0
204	Timor-Leste	2	0	0
205	Andorra	0	0	0
205	Montserrat	0	0	0
205	San Marino	0	0	0
205	Turks and Caicos Islands	0	0	0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

A look at the flag chasers

In February, Estonia announced they will be playing against France in a friendly scheduled for 5 June. They will thus become the first ever team to have played all 52 fellow European footballing nations (see article on fifa.com).

OK, so Estonia will be the first. Who was close? Are there any other teams that have achieved this feat in other confederations? Well, except CONMEBOL teams since they meet each other in every World Cup qualification campaign. Which team has the highest number of opponents?

In Europe, there are three teams with only 2 UEFA opponents missing from their list

Russia (Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro)
Romania (Kazakhstan and Malta)
Czech Republic (Georgia and Kazakhstan)

Here's the European top 10, with 7 teams tied for 10th place.

Opponents left to play against - Team

1 - Estonia
2 - Russia, Romania, Czech Republic
3 - Israel, Norway, Poland, Hungary, Germany
4 - Malta, Greece, Portugal, Wales, Bulgaria, Finland, Sweden

Asian Top 10

4 - China PR, Korea Republic
5 - Hong Kong, Thailand
6 - Bangladesh, Korea DPR, Iran, Singapore
7 - Sri Lanka, India, Kuwait

African Top 10

7 - Angola, Cameroon, Zambia
8 - Guinea
9 - Zimbabwe
10 - Gabon, Congo DR, Uganda, Senegal, Ghana, Tunisia

CONCACAF Top 10

4 - St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Haiti
5 - Cuba
6 - Trinidad and Tobago
8 - Puerto Rico, Curacao, Jamaica
9 - Grenada, Barbados
10 - St. Lucia, Bermuda, Suriname

In Oceania, 5 teams have met all their OFC neighbors: Cook Islands, Tahiti, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands and Fiji.

American Samoa and Tonga have to play against New Zealand.
Papua New Guinea - against New Caledonia.
New Caledonia - against Samoa and Papua Guinea.
Samoa - against New Caledonia and New Zealand.
New Zealand - against Samoa, Tonga and American Samoa.


Most teams outside own confederation

Unsurprisingly, Brazil top the list with 73 non-CONMEBOL opponents.

Brazil	73
Saudi Arabia	70
USA	67
Mexico	66
Korea Republic	65
Chile	64
Japan	63
China PR	62
Egypt	62
Canada	61
Uruguay	61

Most opponents

Saudi Arabia are top - they have played against 106 FIFA members. Korea Republic have the same number of opponents, but 250 matches more than Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia	106
Korea Republic	106
China PR	103
Egypt	103
Iran	99
Japan	98
Morocco	96
Tunisia	95
Sweden	87
Algeria	86
Norway	86

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2013 African Cup of Nations: Seeding, draw dates

CAF have announced yesterday the qualification criteria for the 2013 Africa Cup of Nations.

It the same seeding system I expect they will use for the final draw. There are some errors in their ranking. They say in case of a tie, the tie-breaker will be the number of points gained in the three tournaments (3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a defeat).

Gabon should be above Nigeria (both have 14 points on the field, but Gabon have a better goal difference).
Morocco should be above Senegal (6 points vs. 2 points on the field).
Libya should be above Benin (4 points vs. 1 point on the field).
Mozambique should be above Togo (1 point vs. 0 points on the field).
South Africa should be above Namibia (2 points vs. 1 point on the field).

Official CAF ranking (pdf document).

The draw for the final qualification round will take place in the first week of July 2012.

The draw for the final tournament will take place on 26 October 2012.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: April 2012 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on April 11th.

Of the top 10 teams, only Spain don't move. Germany up to 2nd, Uruguay climb to 3rd, Netherlands drop to 4th. Italy out of the top 10, replaced by Denmark.

Best movers:

25 - Korea DPR
24 - Turkmenistan
14 - Tajikistan

Worst movers:

-21 - Georgia
-20 - Israel and Cuba
-14 - Cape Verde Islands

Best movers in the top 50:

9 - Libya and El Salvador
8 - Colombia and Romania
7 - Wales

Worst movers in the top 50:

-20 - Israel
-10 - Montenegro
-6 - Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Estonia

Japan return to 2nd in Asia, with Korea Republic dropping to third. Korea did peak at the right moment to be top seeded for the World Cup draw. China PR replace Uzbekistan in the Asian top 5.

Mali and Zambia switch places in the African top 5, with Mali climbing to 4th.

El Salvador climb to 3rd place in CONCACAF.

Colombia replace Paraguay in the CONMEBOL top 5.

New Caledonia up to 2nd in Oceania.

Germany up to 2nd and Portugal up to 4th in Europe, with Netherlands and England dropping one place each.

Four teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Uruguay (3rd - 4th in September 2011)
Libya (46th - 53rd in February 2012)
El Salvador (49th - 54th in February 2012)
Philippines (148th - 149th in December 2010) (Thanks FilipinoFootball!)

American Samoa will return to their best ever ranking - 186th, first achieved in December 2011.

Three teams will return to their worst ever rankings:

India (165th - first happened in March 2007)
British Virgin Islands (199th - first happened in December 2011)
Brunei Darussalam (202nd - first happened in December 2011)

Eight teams will drop to new lows:

Bulgaria (96th - 88th in February 2012)
Iceland (131st - 124th in August 2011)
Cyprus (133rd - 129th in March 2012)
Thailand (141st - 139th in March 2012)
Singapore (158th - 152nd in November 2011)
Barbados (171st - 170th in March 2012)
Solomon Islands (184th - 182nd in April 2011)
Kyrgyzstan (195th - 192nd in February 2012)

April 2012 rank - Team - April 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Spain	1442	0	-119
2	Germany	1345	1	13
3	Uruguay	1309	1	20
4	Netherlands	1207	-2	-172
5	Portugal	1190	2	84
6	Brazil	1165	-1	8
7	England	1132	-1	11
8	Croatia	1114	2	65
9	Denmark	1069	2	44
10	Argentina	1066	-2	-36
11	Russia	1049	1	46
12	Italy	1041	-3	-21
13	Chile	967	1	17
14	Greece	961	-1	8
15	Côte d'Ivoire	951	0	7
16	France	938	0	0
17	Sweden	931	0	5
18	Republic of Ireland	891	1	19
18	Switzerland	891	0	0
20	Mexico	868	2	19
21	Australia	862	-1	-6
22	Ghana	816	1	-4
23	Colombia	815	8	67
24	Norway	805	0	8
25	Paraguay	803	0	12
26	Czech Republic	798	3	36
27	Bosnia-Herzegovina	792	-6	-58
28	Slovenia	781	0	16
29	USA	779	-2	7
30	Japan	753	3	13
31	Korea Republic	746	-1	-5
32	Serbia	725	-6	-54
33	Turkey	720	-1	-27
34	Peru	719	0	-1
35	Slovakia	716	0	6
36	Hungary	692	1	34
37	Ecuador	673	2	25
38	Algeria	667	-3	-43
39	Mali	656	3	27
40	Zambia	640	1	10
41	Wales	635	7	55
42	Gabon	621	1	4
43	Venezuela	617	3	24
44	Belgium	604	-4	-38
45	Romania	603	8	30
46	Libya	602	9	36
47	Armenia	598	-3	-3
48	Scotland	596	3	22
49	El Salvador	589	9	35
49	Ukraine	589	0	11
51	Iran	578	0	4
52	Panama	575	-2	-1
53	Estonia	574	-6	-11
54	Montenegro	569	-10	-32
55	Egypt	566	9	36
56	Jamaica	565	-2	-6
57	Tunisia	563	-1	-1
58	Israel	558	-20	-93
59	Costa Rica	557	0	7
60	Nigeria	554	-3	-3
61	Honduras	550	2	17
62	Morocco	548	-1	3
63	Sierra Leone	533	10	68
64	Cameroon	526	2	21
65	Poland	514	10	53
66	China PR	503	2	8
67	Guinea	499	-2	-10
68	Belarus	494	1	4
69	Uzbekistan	493	-2	-9
70	Iraq	488	6	28
71	South Africa	482	-11	-67
72	Haiti	477	0	8
73	Austria	475	-2	3
74	Latvia	465	4	21
75	Canada	450	4	7
76	Cape Verde Islands	449	-14	-93
77	Senegal	448	-7	-34
78	Angola	440	3	16
79	Finland	430	5	18
80	Burkina Faso	426	-3	-25
81	Jordan	420	2	0
82	Guatemala	419	4	15
83	Trinidad and Tobago	417	-1	-6
84	Albania	384	-4	-48
84	Qatar	384	4	-4
86	Korea DPR	377	25	78
87	Kuwait	376	7	8
88	Togo	374	9	25
89	Lithuania	373	2	-10
89	Saudi Arabia	373	-1	-15
91	Congo	366	10	35
92	Uganda	362	-4	-26
93	Bahrain	361	0	-12
93	Oman	361	-1	-20
95	Georgia	360	-21	-102
96	Bulgaria	354	-11	-52
97	Vietnam	347	1	0
98	FYR Macedonia	342	4	14
99	Guyana	341	0	0
100	Antigua and Barbuda	338	-5	-22
100	Northern Ireland	338	-13	-62
102	Malawi	332	-6	-22
103	Equatorial Guinea	331	5	26
104	Zimbabwe	328	2	21
105	Rwanda	327	0	11
106	Mozambique	322	-2	3
107	Botswana	321	-7	-17
108	Bermuda	318	-5	-3
109	Bolivia	308	-3	1
110	Azerbaijan	305	6	20
111	St. Kitts and Nevis	298	-2	-3
112	Liberia	293	13	25
113	Gambia	292	10	21
113	Sudan	292	-3	-8
115	Chad	289	-3	-4
116	Sao Tome e Principe	288	-1	0
117	Kenya	285	-4	-7
118	Faroe Islands	284	-2	-1
119	Congo DR	283	1	2
119	Luxembourg	283	8	19
121	Namibia	281	11	31
121	United Arab Emirates	281	1	6
123	Niger	274	-9	-15
124	Central African Republic	271	7	20
125	Benin	269	2	5
126	Syria	268	0	1
127	Burundi	267	5	17
128	Lebanon	266	-4	-4
129	Liechtenstein	261	8	25
130	New Zealand	256	-11	-28
131	Iceland	255	-10	-22
131	Tajikistan	255	14	45
133	Cyprus	252	-4	-10
133	Suriname	252	-3	-2
135	Dominican Republic	247	0	0
136	Cuba	244	-20	-41
137	Kazakhstan	243	5	19
138	Ethiopia	236	2	5
138	Puerto Rico	236	-4	-13
140	Belize	235	-4	-3
141	Thailand	232	-2	-3
142	Moldova	222	1	6
142	Turkmenistan	222	24	108
144	Grenada	217	-7	-19
145	Tanzania	215	-4	-13
146	Nicaragua	211	-2	0
147	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	191	-1	3
148	Philippines	182	8	46
149	Nepal	164	4	20
150	Malta	161	-2	9
151	Indonesia	160	-4	0
152	Bangladesh	154	12	34
153	Palestine	151	7	20
154	New Caledonia	150	8	24
155	Samoa	149	-5	0
156	Malaysia	148	-4	0
156	Yemen	148	-8	-4
158	Singapore	145	-8	-4
159	Curacao	138	-5	-4
160	Fiji	133	-3	0
161	Bahamas	132	-6	-9
161	Hong Kong	132	-3	0
163	Lesotho	131	-3	0
164	Maldives	130	10	35
165	India	122	-7	-10
166	Madagascar	121	-3	-2
167	Aruba	120	-3	0
168	Afghanistan	118	10	33
169	Chinese Taipei	117	-1	7
170	Guinea-Bissau	116	-2	6
171	Barbados	106	-1	-1
172	Vanuatu	103	0	0
173	Cambodia	101	-7	-13
173	Myanmar	101	4	15
175	Laos	96	-2	0
176	Dominica	95	-2	0
177	Mongolia	90	-6	-16
178	Tonga	88	-2	0
179	Swaziland	86	0	3
179	Tahiti	86	4	13
181	Sri Lanka	82	5	20
182	Pakistan	80	-1	4
183	US Virgin Islands	78	-3	-4
184	Solomon Islands	75	-2	0
185	Cayman Islands	72	-1	0
186	American Samoa	61	1	0
187	Comoros	60	1	5
188	St. Lucia	52	-3	-13
189	Seychelles	47	0	0
190	Eritrea	45	0	0
191	Somalia	43	0	0
192	Mauritius	37	3	5
193	Papua New Guinea	34	1	0
194	Guam	32	-1	-4
195	Kyrgyzstan	29	-3	-10
196	Cook Islands	28	0	0
197	Djibouti	23	0	0
198	Macau	19	1	-1
199	British Virgin Islands	13	-2	-10
200	Anguilla	9	0	0
201	Bhutan	6	0	0
202	Brunei Darussalam	4	-1	-2
202	Mauritania	4	1	0
204	Timor-Leste	2	0	0
205	Andorra	0	0	0
205	Montserrat	0	0	0
205	San Marino	0	0	0
205	Turks and Caicos Islands	0	0	0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.