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Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Confederation weighting: Are the official values wrong?

FIFA have released the official values for confederation weighting - values that will be used in the next 4 years (including the 2014 FIFA World Cup final tournament).

The values can be found in this document.

Confederation - FIFA's values - My values

UEFA 1.00 0.99
CONMEBOL 1.00 1.00
CONCACAF 0.88 0.85
AFC 0.85 0.85
CAF 0.86 0.85
OFC 0.85 0.85

Take a look at my calculations and tell me if there's something wrong with them.


  1. Well, Eduard, I'm as stunned as you are!! I had the same calculations as you, but FIFA obviously has other calculations.

    I don't know how they've come up with these values, but they sure do not correspond with the calculation methods which should be used in order to calculate the new weightings.

  2. I'll be honest, it's not nice to say it...

    I told you

    They absolutely can't allow CONMEBOL having a higher weighting than UEFA.
    I expected 1, 1, and 0.85 for every other, and not this ¡oh, how cool are we! with constants spreading through four different values.
    Also, 0.88 is a verrrrry nice addition to the outcome of their "new, simpler and improved formula". They love Americans, and Mexicans love themselves way too much (besides having one of the better paid leagues outside Europe).
    And Africa got the (minimal) upgrade after failing horribly in their own WC. :)


  3. I've had a play with the numbers but I can't get a way for Africa to be above Asia. I think FIFA must have substantially altered their formula to get the "right" numbers.

  4. You should try writing to FIFA:

  5. CAF only can be above AFC if wc02 is out.So FIFA must have used WC06 and WC10. but even then with 4-root is not enough only 7-root give for CAF 0.86.

    p.s This situation reminds me a joke (i don't know if this story is true). The minister of Economics saw the president of the same country. The president asked him about the situation of the economy and the minister replied "We can't find the right numbers (or the right formula)"

  6. Sorry, the previous comment is mine. I forgot my name.

  7. And there is something else: in the FIFA-document it is stated that CONMEBOL receives a slightly higher weighting than 4 years ago: 0,88, which is - according to FIFA - 0,02 higher than they had. So does this mean that all games which included CONMEBOL-teams in the last 4 years should be weighed with 0,86 for CONMEBOl-teams instead of 0,85?

    That would make things a bit complicated, doesn't it?

  8. Sorry, I meant CONCACAF instead of CONMEBOL.

    My apologies.

  9. What happens if you count Draws as either 1/2 or 1/3 of a win?

  10. I've done a quick calculation so it may be slightly out but with draws counting 1/3: CONMEBOL 1.00, UEFA 0.98, CONCACAF 0.83, AFC: 0.84, CAF 0.82, OFC 0.58. With Draws counting 1/2: CONMEBOL 1.00, UEFA 1.00, CONCACAF 0.83, AFC: 0.86, CAF 0.82, OFC 0.61. I've included Australia in AFC for 2006 but this only makes a difference to OFC. There still isn't a way for CAF to be above AFC. If Draws count 1/3 & penalty wins count 2/3 & penalty losses count 1/3: CONMEBOL 1.00, UEFA 0.98, CONCACAF 0.84, AFC: 0.84, CAF 0.83, OFC 0.58.

  11. @Anonymous:

    Thanks! Looks like this won't solve the mystery.

  12. and if wins via PSO are not counted as losses for both sides, can this explain the discrepancies?

  13. Penalty Shootouts don't substantially alter the results. There have only been a maximum of 2 intercontinental PSO in each of the last 3 world cups.