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Friday, December 17, 2010

FIFA Ranking: January 2011 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the January 2011 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

18/Dec Honduras - Panama 1 (Friendly)
18/Dec Iraq - Syria 1 (Friendly)
18/Dec Vietnam - Malaysia 1 (Friendly)
18/Dec China PR - Estonia 1 (Friendly)
19/Dec Qatar - India 1 (Friendly)
19/Dec Indonesia - Philippines 1 (Friendly)
22/Dec Qatar - Estonia X (Friendly)
22/Dec Syria - Iraq X (Friendly)
22/Dec China PR - FYR Macedonia 1 (Friendly)
24/Dec Kuwait - Korea DPR X (Friendly)
26/Dec Syria - India 1 (Friendly)
26/Dec Malaysia - Indonesia X (Friendly)
27/Dec Kuwait - Korea DPR X (Friendly)
28/Dec Qatar - Iran X (Friendly)
28/Dec Saudi Arabia - Iraq 1 (Friendly)
28/Dec Jordan - Bahrain X (Friendly)
29/Dec Indonesia - Malaysia 1 (Friendly)
29/Dec Qatar - Iran X (Friendly)
30/Dec Syria - Korea Republic 2 (Friendly)
31/Dec Kuwait - Zambia X (Friendly)
01/Jan Bahrain - Korea DPR X (Friendly)
02/Jan Jordan - Uzbekistan X (Friendly)
02/Jan Iraq - China PR X (Friendly)
02/Jan United Arab Emirates - Syria X (Friendly)
04/Jan Bahrain - Saudi Arabia X (Friendly)
05/Jan United Arab Emirates - Australia 2 (Friendly)

28 comments:

  1. India's match against Qatar cancelled and India will lose against Syria. So how much points be deducted for that lose against Syria?

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  2. In this case India would have 127 points.

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  3. Those three Indonesia's games are Regional championship's semi final and final (South East Asia region).
    Isn't that count for something? or just plain friendly point?

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  4. @ Anonymous

    They are regarded as friendlies.

    What anonymous says reminds me of a question I have. Does anyone know why Asian Challenge Cup matches are regarded as friendlies by FIFA when they are in actual fact continental qualifiers with the winer qualifying to the Asian Cup? India and Korea DPR qualified through the Challenge Cup, so why are the matches deemed as friendlies? And of course, same for Challenge Cup qualifiers. CONCACAF has it's regional tournaments recognised as continental qualifiers and rightfully so, why not Asia with the Challenge Cup?

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  5. Absaloutely Right. AFC Challenge cup should be regarded as Continental Qualifiers. I think its the AFC's duty to compell Fifa to regard these matches as Continental Qualifiers.

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  6. @ Abishek and Edgar

    So, you support India, do you, Abishek? That means this has maximum impact on you. I'd like to know how big. Edgar, would it be possible for you to work out where India would be in the FIFA Rankings if their Challenge Cup matches were regarded as Continental qualifiers?

    I'll give you the information you need to calculate it to save you as much trouble as possible, and to prove I'm not just saying on a whim "Oh, could you do this?" It does interest me, how much of an impact is this going to have when Asia does it's World Cup draw? Could it be the difference between India being on the seeded side side or not in that KO playoff they do that is drawn on the basis of World Ranking? The difference between for instance, playing China or Chinese Taipei? Here's India's stats:

    First of all, a tricky proposition, the AFC Challenge Cup straddles two ranking dates, this one:

    http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html#confederation=25998&rank=171

    and this one:

    http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html#confederation=25998&rank=172

    I realise this annoyance would mean to be truly accurate, you'd have to calculate ALL the Challenge Cup results as continental qualifiers. Better not bother with that (at least if you don't want to), I only need a rough idea.

    Here are India's results:

    India were 153rd with 137pts in the July ranking.

    July 30th 2008 - defeated Afghanistan (181st)

    Aug 1st tie with Tajikistan (154th)

    Aug 3rd - beat Turkmenistan (158th)

    Now the rankings change.

    Aug 7th - beat Myanmar (157th)

    Aug 13th - beat Tajikistan (156th)

    If you don't want to do it, it's okay.

    I can't help notice Tajikistan, a team already low in the rankings, lost two places after negotiating the group stage, and in the end went back to where they started at 154th, reaping zero benefits despite getting to the damn final, and beating Korea DPR in the process. There's no way that would happen if these games were weighted as Continental qualifiers, and they should be. How on Earth are any of these teams supposed to break into a seeded position for a World Cup qualifying first round draw under such circumstances? It's not even my confederation, but it's a big injustice anyway.

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  7. I bet you can also lay the blame for Korea DPR's tiny World ranking at the World Cup with the AFC Challenge Cup dragging down their ranking, even with a victory in the 2nd one.

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  8. @Lorric

    They would have 151 points in January (instead of 132). However, I'm pretty sure AFC will somehow find a way to use the WC performance to seed the draw.

    Unfortunately for India, they are 27th - the first unseeded team in the KO round.

    If AFC will use the FIFA ranking, it's pretty close, India are in the seeded pot, but hanging on for dear life. And with the AFC Asian Nations Cup soon to follow, it doesn't look pretty.

    This is FIFA's stance regarding the AFC Challenge Cup:

    While we can follow your line of argumentation please note that the AFC Challenge Cup will continue to be rated as 'friendly' (like other regional competions with developmental character elsewhere in the world). The one Asian Nations Cup spot at stake is regarded as a bonus with the vast majority of participants coming through the one and only preliminary competition.

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  9. 18/Dec Vietnam - Malaysia 1 (Friendly) wrong
    should be
    18/Dec Vietnam - Malaysia X (Friendly)

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  10. @Lorric: Thanks Lorric for ur concern. Yes, I support India because i m an Indian. Really, the statement provided by Fifa seems stupid to me. Whatever it is, it should be regarded as Continental Qualifiers, afterall teams qualify for the Asian Cup by winning AFC Challenge Cup. It is one type of Qualifiers. If Fifa considered them as Qualifiers then it should help the lower ranked teams to improve their ranking as points earned get multiplied by 2.5 if the match is a qualifier. As the matches are considered as friendlies, a team who is ranked 155, max reaches 151 after the tournament. A team which is 170, max gets to 168, not more then that. So what improvement a team can make even they win 4 matches out of 5?????? Nothing, maximum 5 places up. Then they get down at the same place after 3 months.

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  11. @ Edgar

    Thanks a lot Edgar, really. Less points than I thought they'd have, even with devaluation. I hope they're only going to seed the World Cup qualifiers and playoff participants to the group stage. If they go the whole way that is a TERRIBLE system, because it means a team in the unseeded section could make great strides, and yet still lose out by continually drawing an upper level team, and in the same way, a team in the seeded section could stagnate, but carry on making the group stage by drawing and beating some of the smallest minnows. Singapore for instance did well for their size in WCQs, but had they drawn a better seeded team, that wouldn't have happened. As it was, they defeated three supposedly better teams.

    FIFA's explanation is rubbish too. How is the Asian Cup any different to the Carribean Cup? There are loads of very weak teams there, not even playing on FIFA dates, and yet they still get recognised as continental qualifiers right from the get go in the 1st qualifying round with the smallest teams. And also, matches between already qualified teams in both the Caribbean Cup and Central American Cup are recognised as qualifiers, even though the teams have already qualified. I agree with treating these matches involving already qualified teams as qualifiers though, as they may still be playing for seedings.

    AFC Challenge Cup is not a bonus. It is these sides' only possible means of qualifying for the Asian Cup, since they are excluded from the "proper" qualifiers. If you got that explanation by asking FIFA, I'd appreciate if you asked them that too. The AFC Challenge Cup is their qualifying campaign.

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  12. Hope AFC doesnt seed the teams according to the performance based on the previous edition. Then it will be hell for India because then they will be at 27 and they will get very tough opponents. Hope AFC use the present fifa rankings for seedings. Then India will easily within the top 24 nations as they are within the top 24 in Asia for more than 3 years. Pot 1 consists of teams 6-24 and they play against teams 25-43. India have to be within 24. That can only happen if AFC uses fifa rankings. Is there any chance of seeding India within 24 for playing the Asia Cup and being in top 16?? Is it final that AFC will seed teams based on thei previous qualifier's performance???

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  13. @Lorric: You are absaloutely right Lorric. Fifa's explanation is stupid. I think AFC has not made any effort to make these matches as Qualifiers. They are negligent in their job. Its both AFC and Fifa's fault. AFC should have pushed Fifa more and made them understood.

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  14. @ Abishek

    I disliked CONCACAF's old qualifying system, in which a stronger unseeded team could basically be screwed by drawing one of the region's powers. However, Two CONCACAF Gold Cups, and the qualifying tournaments that go with them, gave everybody all the opportunity they needed to break into the seeded pot.

    These teams in Asia have no such opportunity. It's all down to the luck of the draw. A draw which is only contested once every 4 years, and carries no second chances.

    India could potentially (however unlikely) amaze Asia and do well at the Asian Cup, then get thrown into the unseeded pot, draw one of the best seeds, and lose, if they're going by World Cup performance only, the results of one single pair of games only.

    Asian countries have huge populations. It is easily possible one of them could produce a great generation, and no one get to see what they can do because they get held down by this system.

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  15. Now that I think about it, CONCACAF's new system would be perfect for Asia. CONCACAF's new system may well be the fairest system of World Cup qualifying after South America, which of course the rest of the World can't copy. You'd still have your KO playoffs, but this time you'd be sending 32 teams instead of 20 teams to the group stage. That would mean all of Asia's best teams would get directly seeded to the group stage, and all the unseeds would at least have a chance then of making the first group stage. And eventually you'd get to 4 groups of 4, then 2 groups of 2, and the group winners and runners up would go to the World Cup, and the third place teams would playoff for the Intercontinental playoff place.

    If all 46 Asian nations competed, the playoffs would be 19th-32nd vs 33rd-46th. Chances are a few would drop out, so it would probably be more like 24th-32nd vs 33rd-41st. Show some ambition, Asia! If a bunch of tiny islands and their tiny teams not only feel they can handle such a schedule, but pushed for it in CONCACAF, surely Asia's countries can do the same.

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  16. You are absaloutely spot on. Asia's pre-world Cup system is very bad. If one team loses in the qualifiers, they are out of the world cup 3 years before it would start. Thats very very disheartening. India 's potential is quite high. They are really improving and I believe they are within the best 18 teams in Asia. But if they again get seeded in the 2nd pot i.e. 25-43, they are more likely to play a strong opponent. Its nothing but injustice. India will perform much better if they are in the group stage. But they cant win if they have to play against a team like Kuwait or Iran in the first round.

    I cant understand why teams like maldives and others who are ranked so much lower than India are above them in seedings. Why India is 27 i dont know. Last time India drew 1 and lost 1. Is Indonesia's performace better than India in the last qualifiers? They lost 11-1 to Syria losing both matches. India atleast drew 1. But still Indonesia is 24.

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  17. @ Abishek

    Every single one of CONCACAF's nations participated in WCQ this time.

    Remember, India did get beat by Lebanon in WCQ, who got beat in all 6 games in the group. India got a fantastic draw and blew it.

    Indonesia got a couple of ties in Asian Cup qualifying against Australia and Oman. They've played and won five matches in the ASEAN Championship, as well as winning three preparation friendlies beforehand, so they've gathered plenty of points recently and deserve it.

    Indonesia are in the final now against Malaysia and are on an 8 game winning streak.

    Maldives won some Challenge Cup qualifiers, friendlies and matches at the South Asian Cup recently.

    Asia's qualifying system does treat the lesser countries like garbage that needs sweeping out of the way as quickly as possible though. I don't like it. I know football is unpopular in Asia, but they should still do better than that.

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  18. @Lorric: This World Cup seeding was done on 27 June 2009 as given in the page in this site i.e. one and a half years ago. So the ongoing Asean Cup performance has nothing to do with it. And as far as Asean Cup is concerned, Indonesia are winning against teams whose rankings are less than 150 and some are much lower than 150. If India get to play teams like philippines, Malaysia, Laos like Indonesia, they will also win all the matches. No credit to Indonesia.

    Maldives won the Challenge Cup qualifiers but India won the Cup itself. And the Saff Cup ur are talking about, India won the South Asian Cup again by beating Maldives. Also INDIA won friendlies against much higher ranked teams like Namibia and Vietnam in October. So in no way Maldives better than India and even since Football was introduced in the World.

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  19. @ Abishek

    Oh, I thought you meant the World Rankings. In the current rankings, Indonesia are quite far ahead of India currently, while Maldives are quite far behind.

    Be fair though, India have had some terrible recent results.

    That 2009 ranking, I expect Indonesia got ranked ahead of India because Guam dropped out, giving them a walkover to round 2, while Maldives beat Yemen in one of the legs (and surely you can appreciate that after shipping 6 goals to Yemen at home recently) vs India just getting a draw with Lebanon. Even though the system itself is bad, within the system they earned the spots above India. I'm sure Indonesia would have wiped up the pitch with Guam if they hadn't dropped out anyway.

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  20. @Abhishek

    Indonesia was unlucky enough to draw Syria. Any other draw, they'll do just fine. I wish Indonesia can join AFC challenge Cup, with that they can qualify to Asian Cup easyly like India. For your reference, Indonesia always qualified to Asian Cup from 1996 until 2007. How many times India qualified during the last 5?

    @Lorric

    You're wrong on Football's popularity. They're the most popular sport in Asia, well in most countries anyway, except South Asia, Australia, maybe Japan or South Korea. But the rest, they're number one sport. Look at China, Middle East, South East Asia, they're football mad countries.

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  21. @ Marco

    I have issues with Asian support, I do believe all other conferederations support their football teams with much greater fervour.

    However, there is also another reason I have: Bahrain. This tiny county of less than a million people frequently humiliates countries with over 100X the population to call upon. I have a ton of respect for Bahrain, but it's still ridiculous. It would be like Cyprus being easily among the 10 best teams in Europe, it simply shouldn't be allowed to happen. But it does anyway. How can football be popular if all these huge countries bar a handful are incapable of competing with Bahrain, much less the rest of the World?

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  22. @Lorric

    I understand your frustration. It’s really painful to see where Indonesia has 230 million populations, but they can’t speak anything on the world stage, even South East Asia Region, they keep losing to Singapore (3-4 million populations). That’s with the fact; we’re football mad country, where all the best leagues in Europe broadcast for free and 90,000 average attendances for the recent AFF Cup (Regional Tournament).
    Football for most people that’s not the way to live, cause they see no future in it. For those that choose Football as their lives, these reasons hold them from their potential, at least for Indonesia in my opinion:
    - Undersize physical size compare to other countries. South East Asian is one the smallest Footballer in average.
    - Incompetent Football federation to choose the best way to develop their countries’ football. They bid for FIFA World Cup for 2018 or 2022 instead of investing in proper local development, which they failed.
    - Lack of proper training/trainer.
    - Lack of professionalism. What happen after Football, pro footballer still do things like smoking, drinking, and drugs.

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  23. @ Marco

    I do respect Indonesia a lot too, because I have noticed their enormous national stadium, and the fact they can fill it, even with a weak team and weak opponents. I like to watch highlights of all kinds of International matches and sometimes full matches, and I noticed this for the Asian Cup qualifiers.

    Unfortunately for Indonesia, I also notice they took a beating from Malaysia. They're going to need all that and probably more to take the cup. But they have recorded some very big home wins so it can be done.

    I wonder why Bahrain can get it right, while so many other Asian nations can't? Where would Bahrain be in the footballing World if they had an extra 100 million people?

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  24. Kuwait vs Korea dpr =2\1 for Kuwait
    second game
    draw 2\2

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  25. Definitely there is lack off proper infrastructure in many Asian countries. Seeing as AFC now want all their members to host own matches, I'm not surprised to see a lot of the teams to be cut out from the qualifying.
    I do also think more AFC teams need to get out of their own regions and play internationally to improve or get more experience if anything.

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  26. @Lorric

    No, I didn't tell them about Challenge Cup teams not being able to participate in the main qualifying competition. However, India were in the main competition, but chose to also compete in the Challenge Cup.

    @Abhishek

    AFC recently used the FIFA ranking only in one occasion - seeding the teams for the Asian Cup 2007 because Australia were in the mix and had they used previous edition performance, Australia would have been in the last pot. So it was an exception to the rule - they don't like using the FIFA ranking.

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  27. CONCACAF as a region is much smaller than AFC - some Asian teams can't afford the travel expenses.

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