Following the draw made this week I tuned my software to be able to predict a tournament. Here's the results.
NOTE 1: as Guadeloupe isn't a FIFA member and I use FIFA rankings for predictions, I created this simulation with a presumptive ranking of 1150, which seems realistic.
NOTE 2: for the matchup possibilities I took the 10 most likely ones as there's more combinations possible.
Group A
Country 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Mexico 65.95% 26.97% 5.99% 1.09%
Costa Rica 29.27% 49.60% 15.80% 5.33%
Surinam 2.59% 11.93% 39.44% 46.04%
Dominican Republic 2.19% 11.50% 38.77% 47.54%
Costa Rica 29.27% 49.60% 15.80% 5.33%
Surinam 2.59% 11.93% 39.44% 46.04%
Dominican Republic 2.19% 11.50% 38.77% 47.54%
Group B
Country 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Canada 52.48% 24.94% 14.53% 8.05%
Honduras 16.86% 26.83% 29.10% 27.21%
El Salvador 17.16% 25.26% 27.97% 29.61%
Curaçao 13.50% 22.97% 28.40% 35.13%
Curaçao 13.50% 22.97% 28.40% 35.13%
Group C
Country 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Panama 51.62% 28.45% 13.99% 5.94%
Jamaica 30.48% 34.20% 22.77% 12.55%
Guatemala 10.46% 20.54% 32.97% 36.03%
Guadeloupe 7.44% 16.81% 30.27% 45.48%
Group D
Country 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
United States 65.59% 22.62% 8.47% 3.32%
Saudi Arabia 18.55% 35.51% 27.90% 18.04%
Haiti 9.50% 24.05% 33.44% 33.01%
Trinidad and Tobago 6.36% 17.82% 30.19% 45.63%
Quarter Finalist
Mexico 92.92%
United States 88.21%
Panama 80.07%
Costa Rica 78.87%
Canada 77.42%
Jamaica 64.68%
Saudi Arabia 54.06%
Honduras 43.69%
El Salvador 42.42%
Curaçao 36.47%
Haiti 33.55%
Guatemala 31.00%
Guadeloupe 24.25%
Trinidad and Tobago 24.18%
Surinam 14.52%
Dominican Republic 13.69%
Semi Finalist
United States 59.14%
Mexico 58.95%
Panama 48.86%
Canada 47.43%
Costa Rica 36.62%
Jamaica 33.84%
Saudi Arabia 22.23%
Honduras 19.20%
El Salvador 17.88%
Curaçao 14.62%
Haiti 11.00%
Guatemala 10.75%
Guadeloupe 7.42%
Trinidad and Tobago 6.73%
Surinam 2.71%
Dominican Republic 2.62%
Finalist
United States 41.37%
Mexico 39.64%
Panama 22.63%
Canada 22.00%
Costa Rica 20.37%
Jamaica 12.79%
Saudi Arabia 11.44%
Honduras 6.88%
El Salvador 5.34%
Haiti 4.68%
Curaçao 4.62%
Guatemala 2.94%
Trinidad and Tobago 2.27%
Guadeloupe 1.53%
Surinam 0.78%
Dominican Republic 0.72%
Winner
United States 27.04%
Mexico 23.32%
Canada 11.12%
Panama 11.07%
Costa Rica 8.84%
Jamaica 4.83%
Saudi Arabia 4.67%
Honduras 2.15%
El Salvador 1.82%
Haiti 1.52%
Curaçao 1.44%
Guatemala 0.89%
Trinidad and Tobago 0.58%
Guadeloupe 0.38%
Surinam 0.17%
Dominican Republic 0.16%
Quarter Finals
1A v 2D
Mexico v Saudi Arabia 23.60%
Mexico v Haiti 15.61%
Mexico v United States 15.16%
Mexico v Trinidad and Tobago 11.58%
Costa Rica v Saudi Arabia 10.11%
Costa Rica v Haiti 7.25%
Costa Rica v United States 6.43%
Costa Rica v Trinidad and Tobago 5.48%
Surinam v Saudi Arabia 1.04%
Dominican Republic v Saudi Arabia 0.76%
1B v 2C
Canada v Jamaica 18.12%
Canada v Panama 14.57%
Canada v Guatemala 10.66%
Canada v Guadeloupe 9.13%
El Salvador v Jamaica 6.06%
Honduras v Jamaica 5.45%
Honduras v Panama 4.97%
El Salvador v Panama 4.70%
Curaçao v Jamaica 4.57%
Curaçao v Panama 4.21%
1C v 2B
Panama v Honduras 13.60%
Panama v Canada 13.14%
Panama v El Salvador 12.88%
Panama v Curaçao 12.00%
Jamaica v Honduras 8.50%
Jamaica v El Salvador 7.63%
Jamaica v Canada 7.52%
Jamaica v Curaçao 6.83%
Guatemala v El Salvador 2.90%
Guatemala v Honduras 2.70%
1D v 2A
United States v Costa Rica 32.50%
United States v Mexico 17.91%
Saudi Arabia v Costa Rica 9.14%
United States v Dominican Republic 7.73%
United States v Surinam 7.45%
Saudi Arabia v Mexico 4.83%
Haiti v Costa Rica 4.77%
Trinidad and Tobago v Costa Rica 3.19%
Saudi Arabia v Surinam 2.51%
Haiti v Mexico 2.35%
Combined
United States v Costa Rica 38.93%
United States v Mexico 33.07%
Mexico v Saudi Arabia 28.43%
Canada v Panama 27.71%
Canada v Jamaica 25.64%
Costa Rica v Saudi Arabia 19.25%
Panama v Honduras 18.57%
Mexico v Haiti 17.96%
Panama v El Salvador 17.58%
Panama v Curaçao 16.21%
Semi Finals
(1A v 2D) v (1C v 2B)
Mexico v Panama 15.23%
Mexico v Jamaica 7.99%
Mexico v Canada 5.72%
Costa Rica v Panama 5.67%
Mexico v El Salvador 4.33%
Mexico v Honduras 4.27%
United States v Panama 4.22%
Saudi Arabia v Panama 4.13%
Mexico v Curaçao 3.91%
Costa Rica v Jamaica 2.98%
(1D v 2A) v (1B v 2C)
United States v Canada 15.74%
United States v Panama 7.39%
United States v Jamaica 7.30%
Costa Rica v Canada 6.80%
Mexico v Canada 4.77%
United States v Honduras 3.91%
United States v El Salvador 3.52%
Costa Rica v Jamaica 3.19%
Saudi Arabia v Canada 3.13%
United States v Curaçao 2.90%
Combined
United States v Canada 17.73%
Mexico v Panama 17.58%
United States v Panama 11.61%
Mexico v Canada 10.49%
Mexico v Jamaica 10.30%
United States v Jamaica 9.69%
Canada v Costa Rica 9.08%
Panama v Costa Rica 8.47%
Costa Rica v Jamaica 6.17%
Panama v Saudi Arabia 5.68%
Final
United States v Mexico 12.69%
Mexico v Costa Rica 6.81%
United States v Panama 6.11%
Mexico v Canada 5.79%
United States v Costa Rica 4.44%
United States v Saudi Arabia 4.07%
United States v Canada 3.87%
Mexico v Panama 3.81%
Panama v Canada 3.29%
United States v Jamaica 2.76%
Will this simulation be updated after June 7 to June 10 window ?
ReplyDeleteHi Ram, if there's major differences yes, but I don't expect the differences will be significant given the results. As the FIFA ranking heavily favors past results and because these simulations/predictions are based on it, I think the US and Mexico's expected performance is probably a bit overrated, and for Canada and Panama that will be the opposite. I'll run the simulations shortly, and see if there's any significant shifts, remembering that the US, Mexico and Canada's games were friendlies.
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