Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (31 March 2022)
Twitter

Thursday, December 30, 2021

African Cup of Nations 2022 simulations (December 2021)

The African Cup of Nations 2021 was initially scheduled for June 2021 in Cameroon, but soon moved back to January 2021 due to unfavourable climatic conditions in this time of the year. Then the COVID-19 pandemic forced a postponement of this tournament to January 2022. 

Now it  seems ready to be played. Proper preparation for the participating teams is still hampered though by COVID-19: most teams stay in homeland training camps and only a few preparatory friendlies are played next week before the continental showpiece kicks off on Sunday January 9th in Cameroon.


It has the same format as the AFCON 2019 in Egypt with 24 teams in 6 groups of 4 and a Round of 16 for which the 6 group numbers one and two qualify plus the 4 best group numbers three.


The complete tournament schedule up until the final on February 6th is simulated. Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.


First the group stage with teams ordered by ascending average group position:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Cameroon

57,68

28,22

10,99

3,11

Burkina Faso

25,93

33,23

26,48

14,36

Cape Verde Islands

12,61

26,15

38,66

22,58

Ethiopia

3,78

12,40

23,87

59,95

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Senegal

84,43

12,46

2,52

0,59

Guinea

9,16

39,41

32,26

19,17

Zimbabwe

3,86

28,23

36,91

31,00

Malawi

2,55

19,90

28,31

49,24

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Morocco

75,38

19,52

4,71

0,39

Ghana

20,41

57,01

18,38

4,20

Gabon

3,87

18,95

47,07

30,11

Comoros

0,34

4,52

29,84

65,30

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Egypt

52,43

31,51

12,80

3,26

Nigeria

39,59

41,73

15,15

3,53

Guinea-Bissau

5,50

17,16

44,59

32,75

Sudan

2,48

9,60

27,46

60,46

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Algeria

63,97

30,26

5,26

0,51

Cote d'Ivoire

31,16

45,15

19,67

4,02

Equatorial Guinea

3,91

18,11

47,46

30,52

Sierra Leone

0,96

6,48

27,61

64,95

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Tunisia

53,53

32,20

10,36

3,91

Mali

39,34

43,92

12,79

3,95

Mauritania

3,36

11,17

42,78

42,69

Gambia

3,77

12,71

34,07

49,45



Then the group numbers three. You see the probability of each team to qualify as one of the four best numbers three for the Round of 16. In square brackets this probability, given the chance to become group number three.


Gabon

35,09

[74,55]

Guinea-Bissau

25,59

[57,39]

Cape Verde Islands

25,48

[65,91]

Gambia

25,20

[73,97]

Equatorial Guinea

25,19

[53,08]

Mauritania

24,54

[57,36]

Guinea

23,20

[71,92]

Burkina Faso

22,58

[85,27]

Zimbabwe

19,39

[52,53]

Malawi

17,71

[62,56]

Sudan

17,59

[64,06]

Sierra Leone

16,47

[59,65]

Cote d'Ivoire

15,54

[79,00]

Ethiopia

14,97

[62,71]

Ghana

13,96

[75,95]

Nigeria

13,72

[90,56]

Comoros

12,01

[40,25]

Egypt

11,50

[89,84]

Mali

10,11

[79,05]

Cameroon

9,94

[90,45]

Tunisia

8,70

[83,98]

Algeria

4,83

[91,83]

Morocco

4,43

[94,06]

Senegal

2,26

[89,68]



The total probability to qualify for the round of 16. 


Morocco

99,33

Senegal

99,15

Algeria

99,06

Cameroon

95,84

Egypt

95,44

Nigeria

95,04

Tunisia

94,43

Mali

93,37

Cote d'Ivoire

91,85

Ghana

91,38

Burkina Faso

81,74

Guinea

71,77

Cape Verde Islands

64,24

Gabon

57,91

Zimbabwe

51,48

Guinea-Bissau

48,25

Equatorial Guinea

47,21

Gambia

41,68

Malawi

40,16

Mauritania

39,07

Ethiopia

31,15

Sudan

29,67

Sierra Leone

23,91

Comoros

16,87



The probability to qualify for the quarter finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the round of 16.


Morocco

87,72

[88,31]

Senegal

81,80

[82,50]

Algeria

81,57

[82,34]

Cameroon

77,31

[80,67]

Mali

58,86

[63,04]

Tunisia

58,36

[61,80]

Egypt

55,72

[58,38]

Ghana

53,45

[58,49]

Cote d'Ivoire

48,57

[52,88]

Nigeria

48,01

[50,52]

Burkina Faso

38,45

[47,04]

Cape Verde Islands

20,78

[32,35]

Guinea

18,17

[25,32]

Gabon

11,72

[20,24]

Gambia

10,08

[24,18]

Equatorial Guinea

9,17

[19,42]

Mauritania

8,84

[22,63]

Guinea-Bissau

7,72

[16,00]

Zimbabwe

7,19

[13,97]

Ethiopia

5,19

[16,66]

Malawi

4,33

[10,78]

Sudan

2,82

[9,50]

Sierra Leone

2,71

[11,33]

Comoros

1,46

[8,65]



The probability to qualify for the semi finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the quarter finals.


Cameroon

59,24

[76,63]

Algeria

59,10

[72,45]

Morocco

49,05

[55,92]

Senegal

46,18

[56,45]

Egypt

30,78

[55,24]

Tunisia

25,84

[44,28]

Nigeria

24,76

[51,57]

Mali

24,68

[41,93]

Cote d'Ivoire

21,42

[44,10]

Ghana

19,44

[36,37]

Burkina Faso

18,43

[47,93]

Cape Verde Islands

6,72

[32,34]

Guinea

2,90

[15,96]

Equatorial Guinea

2,06

[22,46]

Gabon

2,00

[17,06]

Gambia

1,46

[14,48]

Guinea-Bissau

1,38

[17,88]

Mauritania

1,27

[14,37]

Ethiopia

0,99

[19,08]

Zimbabwe

0,78

[10,85]

Sierra Leone

0,53

[19,56]

Malawi

0,48

[11,09]

Sudan

0,37

[13,12]

Comoros

0,14

[9,59]



The probability to qualify for the final. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the semi finals.


Algeria

44,53

[75,35]

Morocco

33,82

[68,95]

Cameroon

27,65

[46,67]

Senegal

26,38

[57,12]

Egypt

13,32

[43,27]

Nigeria

10,88

[43,94]

Cote d'Ivoire

10,53

[49,16]

Tunisia

10,10

[39,09]

Mali

8,49

[34,40]

Ghana

6,64

[34,16]

Burkina Faso

4,53

[24,58]

Cape Verde Islands

1,21

[18,01]

Equatorial Guinea

0,44

[21,36]

Guinea

0,37

[12,76]

Gabon

0,31

[15,50]

Guinea-Bissau

0,25

[18,12]

Mauritania

0,11

[8,66]

Ethiopia

0,11

[11,11]

Gambia

0,09

[6,16]

Sierra Leone

0,08

[15,09]

Zimbabwe

0,05

[6,41]

Sudan

0,05

[13,51]

Malawi

0,03

[6,25]

Comoros

0,03

[21,43]



The probability to win the Africa Cup. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the final.


Algeria

31,06

[69,75]

Morocco

21,73

[64,25]

Cameroon

15,86

[57,36]

Senegal

10,17

[38,55]

Egypt

4,51

[33,86]

Cote d'Ivoire

3,75

[35,61]

Nigeria

3,59

[33,00]

Tunisia

3,45

[34,16]

Mali

2,39

[28,15]

Ghana

1,57

[23,64]

Burkina Faso

1,40

[30,91]

Cape Verde Islands

0,20

[16,53]

Gabon

0,08

[25,81]

Guinea

0,06

[16,22]

Equatorial Guinea

0,05

[11,36]

Guinea-Bissau

0,05

[20,00]

Mauritania

0,02

[18,18]

Sierra Leone

0,02

[25,00]

Malawi

0,02

[66,67]

Gambia

0,01

[11,11]

Sudan

0,01

[20,00]

Ethiopia

0,00

[0,00]

Zimbabwe

0,00

[0,00]

Comoros

0,00

[0,00]



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

4 comments:

  1. en résumé, les pays qui ont plus de chance de remporter la coupe d'Afrique sont l'Algérie, le Maroc, le pays organisateur(le Cameroun) et le Sénégal, c'est très logique et probable.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Remplace l'Algérie par le Nigeria

    ReplyDelete