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Saturday, August 26, 2023

FIFA ranking: September 2023 probable ranking

Here is the probable September 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday September 21st. In the upcoming September window matches for the following tournaments will be played:

- the final match day in African Nations Cup 2023 qualification. Of the 24 berths for the final tournament in January next year in Cote d'Ivoire 16 are already decided, still 8 to go;

- the CONCACAF Nations League 2024 group stage starts with match days 1 and 2;

- match days 5 and 6 of qualification for EURO 2024;

- qualification for the World Cup 2026 starts, this time in South America with match days 1 and 2 in the group;

- lots of friendlies, featuring f.i. most Asian teams and the top 4 CONCACAF teams that got a bye to the league A quarter finals in November.


Eritrea played their last official matches in September 2019. They will be removed from the FIFA ranking now, probably until November when the first group stage matches for the African groups in World Cup qualification are scheduled, in which Eritrea is said to be participating.


This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 159 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 180 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.


pos Sep.

team

pts Sep.

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Argentina

1851,44

0

7,71

2

France

1850,85

0

7,31

3

Brazil

1837,63

0

9,36

4

England

1801,75

0

4,36

5

Belgium

1792,64

0

4,09

6

Croatia

1747,69

0

5,14

7

Netherlands

1743,15

0

11,92

8

Italy

1739,34

0

12,76

9

Portugal

1728,58

0

10,33

10

Spain

1710,72

0

7,27

11

USA

1678,71

0

4,23

12

Mexico

1666,46

0

0,87

13

Switzerland

1666,43

0

5,31

14

Morocco

1660,63

0

5,13

15

Colombia

1642,10

2

17,19

16

Uruguay

1639,02

0

5,88

17

Germany

1637,82

-2

1,50

18

Senegal

1619,63

0

7,02

19

Japan

1595,40

1

-0,56

20

Denmark

1594,34

-1

-3,03

21

Iran

1559,43

1

2,84

22

Serbia

1554,05

3

15,02

23

Peru

1551,91

-2

-9,29

24

Sweden

1551,46

-1

4,35

25

Poland

1549,34

1

12,35

26

Korea Republic

1533,06

2

3,76

27

Australia

1531,72

0

1,27

28

Austria

1529,74

1

1,68

29

Scotland

1527,76

1

7,52

30

Ukraine

1526,45

-6

-14,80

31

Tunisia

1520,23

0

3,56

32

Egypt

1513,93

2

4,04

33

Algeria

1512,01

0

0,78

34

Wales

1510,52

1

4,48

35

Czech Republic

1507,58

2

3,89

36

Hungary

1498,09

0

-6,48

37

Russia

1495,53

1

0

38

Chile

1492,26

-6

-19,05

39

Nigeria

1488,86

0

2,38

40

Turkey

1487,69

1

3,22

41

Ecuador

1485,16

-1

-1,31

42

Cameroon

1475,60

0

4,63

43

Norway

1470,88

1

12,41

44

Romania

1460,06

4

16,08

45

Canada

1458,58

-2

0

46

Panama

1457,28

-1

3,34

47

Costa Rica

1453,25

-1

-0,31

48

Paraguay

1444,58

1

1,94

49

Cote d'Ivoire

1442,92

3

9,54

50

Slovakia

1442,84

-3

-4,21

51

Greece

1437,26

-1

-3,80

52

Mali

1436,69

-1

-1,32

53

Finland

1430,93

2

11,46

54

Jamaica

1421,33

4

11,60

55

Burkina Faso

1421,29

1

2,11

56

Saudi Arabia

1417,78

-2

-3,68

57

Republic of Ireland

1416,32

-4

-9,94

58

Venezuela

1410,33

-1

-6,90

59

Slovenia

1404,72

2

13,68

60

Ghana

1397,91

0

6,78

61

Qatar

1395,57

-2

0

62

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1382,87

0

1,77

63

South Africa

1376,32

0

8,07

64

Montenegro

1361,61

7

18,16

65

Congo DR

1352,48

4

2,37

66

Iraq

1352,36

4

7,15

67

North Macedonia

1350,64

1

0,11

68

Cape Verde Islands

1349,79

-2

-4,86

69

Northern Ireland

1345,70

-5

-15,47

70

Albania

1340,23

-5

-17,16

71

Iceland

1339,43

-4

-13,55

72

United Arab Emirates

1336,28

0

0

73

Oman

1334,37

0

1,92

74

Israel

1324,41

2

0,60

75

Uzbekistan

1323,35

-1

-4,23

76

El Salvador

1322,00

-1

-3,47

77

China PR

1312,21

3

7,43

78

Honduras

1305,71

1

-3,52

79

Bulgaria

1303,81

-2

-11,67

80

Zambia

1302,25

4

8,47

81

Georgia

1299,32

-3

-13,48

82

Guinea

1293,11

-1

-3,64

83

Jordan

1291,36

-1

-4,90

84

Bolivia

1290,32

-1

-4,77

85

Bahrain

1288,50

1

6,45

86

Gabon

1283,34

-1

-1,91

87

Luxembourg

1273,55

2

10,83

88

Haiti

1270,66

-1

-1,98

89

Uganda

1259,97

3

9,65

90

Curacao

1259,40

-2

-8,47

91

Equatorial Guinea

1248,98

0

-2,85

92

Benin

1246,13

1

-2,00

93

Armenia

1242,11

-3

-10,49

94

Syria

1240,81

0

-0,81

95

Vietnam

1238,14

0

-0,09

96

Palestine

1229,05

0

-3,97

97

Kyrgyzstan

1218,51

0

-6,29

98

Belarus

1210,14

0

-2,14

99

Mauritania

1207,08

2

1,90

100

India

1204,93

-1

-3,76

101

Lebanon

1203,02

-1

-2,75

102

Trinidad and Tobago

1202,24

0

2,50

103

New Zealand

1199,04

0

0

104

Kazakhstan

1194,44

0

-3,80

105

Kenya

1194,14

0

3,07

106

Guatemala

1192,65

1

5,94

107

Guinea-Bissau

1190,88

5

11,95

108

Angola

1182,09

8

13,02

109

Tajikistan

1178,01

1

-1,53

110

Madagascar

1177,72

-2

-8,37

111

Congo

1177,40

-5

-13,23

112

Thailand

1176,24

1

1,87

113

Gambia

1173,05

6

13,23

114

Estonia

1172,25

-3

-7,05

115

Korea DPR

1169,96

0

0

116

Kosovo

1169,87

-7

-9,82

117

Namibia

1169,20

-3

-3,21

118

Mozambique

1166,25

-1

2,00

119

Cyprus

1155,95

-1

-7,78

120

Togo

1145,74

2

4,86

121

Malawi

1144,29

2

3,64

122

Sierra Leone

1144,16

-2

-11,95

123

Azerbaijan

1142,69

-2

-0,53

124

Zimbabwe

1138,56

1

0

125

Tanzania

1133,96

-1

-4,83

126

Libya

1133,60

1

2,85

127

Faroe Islands

1131,41

2

5,11

128

Central African Republic

1126,72

-2

-6,78

129

Niger

1120,01

-1

-9,66

130

Comoros

1111,01

0

-8,98

131

Sudan

1108,97

0

-7,24

132

Antigua and Barbuda

1104,19

0

-3,32

133

Solomon Islands

1097,61

0

0

134

Philippines

1094,28

1

-1,38

135

Kuwait

1093,47

2

3,05

136

Latvia

1089,99

-2

-6,20

137

Turkmenistan

1086,57

1

-3,20

138

Rwanda

1086,50

1

-2,96

139

Malaysia

1084,94

-3

-6,63

140

Nicaragua

1081,84

1

5,73

141

Burundi

1080,43

-1

-4,63

142

Suriname

1077,85

1

4,28

143

Ethiopia

1072,54

-1

-1,92

144

St. Kitts and Nevis

1065,56

1

-1,25

145

Lithuania

1060,15

-1

-9,82

146

Hong Kong

1057,21

3

7,47

147

Eswatini

1053,19

-1

-5,00

148

Botswana

1050,69

-1

-3,62

149

Liberia

1047,71

-1

-2,23

150

Indonesia

1047,46

0

0

151

Dominican Republic

1043,30

1

6,56

152

Lesotho

1034,18

-1

-4,50

153

Chinese Taipei

1023,70

0

-4,48

154

Maldives

1021,85

1

0

155

Singapore

1021,43

3

6,65

156

Yemen

1020,37

0

0

157

Afghanistan

1018,67

0

-1,65

158

Andorra

1012,26

-4

-10,04

159

Papua New Guinea

1003,28

0

0

160

Puerto Rico

1000,83

3

7,03

161

Myanmar

999,46

-1

-0,80

162

New Caledonia

995,58

-1

0

163

Tahiti

995,11

-1

0

164

Guyana

987,05

4

5,36

165

Vanuatu

986,44

0

0

166

Barbados

984,59

0

0,54

167

Fiji

980,48

2

0

168

Moldova

980,21

-4

-10,52

169

St. Lucia

980,16

1

1,25

170

South Sudan

976,56

-3

-6,79

171

Malta

971,84

0

-1,02

172

Cuba

966,36

0

-1,93

173

Bermuda

965,76

0

-0,51

174

Nepal

958,85

1

0,80

175

Grenada

951,74

-1

-9,03

176

Belize

947,44

1

7,48

177

Cambodia

943,79

-1

0,82

178

Mauritius

935,16

2

-0,93

179

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

931,32

-1

-6,96

180

Chad

930,22

1

0

181

Montserrat

925,19

-2

-12,83

182

Macau

913,75

0

0,07

183

Mongolia

908,71

0

0

184

Dominica

904,04

0

-0,84

185

Laos

899,58

2

0

186

Cook Islands

899,33

2

0

187

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

897,69

-1

-2,38

188

Bhutan

895,78

-3

-4,87

189

Bangladesh

894,82

0

2,38

190

Djibouti

889,20

1

0

191

Brunei Darussalam

887,63

-1

-3,49

192

Cayman Islands

866,49

1

6,66

193

Timor-Leste

860,45

-1

0

194

Somalia

854,72

2

0

195

Seychelles

853,49

-1

-3,22

196

Aruba

851,10

3

0,22

197

Pakistan

847,67

4

0

198

Turks and Caicos Islands

847,22

4

7,83

199

Gibraltar

845,40

-1

-6,24

200

Liechtenstein

843,63

0

-5,19

201

Bahamas

841,73

-4

-11,14

202

Guam

838,33

1

0

203

Sri Lanka

825,25

1

0

204

US Virgin Islands

809,71

1

-6,88

205

British Virgin Islands

797,12

1

-6,99

206

Anguilla

785,69

1

0

207

San Marino

750,27

1

-2,84


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

4 comments:

  1. Why Russia is not falling if they not playing official games? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The FIFA rankings are a pseudo-elo rating system. So you aren't accumulating points or anything like that. Each time you play a match your rating changes based on your team's strength, the strength of your opponent, and the outcome. Without any official games (they are playing friendlies) their rating is just moving very little (as the I-number for friendlies is quite low, meaning your rating won't move much), meaning they would stay in place on the rankings. Some teams may move above them, but others may fall below them as well.

      Delete
  2. But, if it is not an accumulating points ranking then the old points (over 5 year old) should be substracted from their runking?

    ReplyDelete
  3. In the elo ratings system teams can only win or lose points by playing matches. Once a match is played the points to be exchanged is calculated and the new rating of each team in the match is immediately determined adding or subtracting the exchanged points from their points tally before the match.

    You can look at it this way: the current elo rating of a team is build up over all matches the team has ever played. At least, in the elo ranking that's the case because that system includes all NT-matches since 1870.
    As the FIFA ranking is only calculated using an elo-based method since 2018, the current FIFA ratings are still influenced by the old, pre-2018, ratings because those old ratings were used as starting point for each team with the introduction of the new elo-based calculation in June 2018.

    ReplyDelete