Friday, September 7, 2012

2013 African Cup of Nations: Seeding for the final draw (7 September 2012)

An update of the February 2012 post.

The last three tournaments count towards the ranking (ACN 2006, ACN 2008, ACN 2010).

Points are awarded in this fashion:

7 - winner
5 - finalist
3 - semifinalists
2 - quarterfinalists
1 - teams eliminated in the group stage

Points from the most recent tournament are multiplied by 3, the next one by 2, the last one by 1.

Victor Piturca playing the blame game

Romania returned in September to their worst ever ranking - 57th.

This is what Victor Piturca, the national team manager, had to say about it:

"We're below Estonia because of the matches played two years ago, when I wasn't in charge. Lately, the national team gained points and it will keep on climbing. Since I've returned as manager, we have only lost to Belgium and Slovenia. The numbers prove this."

That's wrong (and I'm not a fan of Razvan Lucescu - the previous manager).

Confusion in Indian football (II)

Different manager, same lack of knowledge about the rankings.

India's chief football coach Wim Koevarmans said that India must play on dates designated by world body FIFA for friendlies if they want to go up in international rankings.

That's sort of an urban myth. Plenty of teams play friendlies outside of the designated FIFA dates and their matches still count for the ranking calculation.

FIFA Ranking: October 2012 probable ranking

Next update: Sometime next week.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 October.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results we could see Barbados jump 40 or more spots, Northern Ireland and Cyprus 30 or more, Bulgaria and Israel 20 or more, while Luxembourg could drop more than 40 places, with Iceland dropping around 26 places.

In the top 50, Scotland, Norway and Panama could jump 10 or more places, while Hungary, Ukraine and Algeria could do the opposite.

FIFA Ranking: October 2012 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the October 2012 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: October 2012 preview

Next update: Sometime next week.

Includes matches up to 6 September.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 October.

England's 3rd place adventure will most likely end - even if they win both their matches (against Moldova and Ukraine). Uruguay, Argentina and Portugal could all reach a higher total, dropping England to a probable 6th place.

Most points dropped (best case scenario):

-39 - Congo
-38 - Thailand
-35 - St. Vincent and the Grenadines
-31 - Italy
-30 - Qatar
-30 - St. Kitts and Nevis
-25 - Fiji
-24 - Chad
-21 - Madagascar
-18 - Korea DPR


September 2012: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference 


South Sudan 197 128 69
Syria 148 86 62
Mauritania 204 164 40
Finland 96 58 38
Cyprus 135 98 37
Bulgaria 89 53 36
Moldova 141 107 34
Cuba 147 114 33
Fiji 155 122 33
Indonesia 168 138 30