FIFA ranking: April 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 145 currently scheduled matches up to and including March 30th, used to calculate the April 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.

Also the already played matches since February 7th, (probably) counting for the April ranking, are presented.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

World Cup qualification simulations (5 February 2022)

The January window and all but the final weekend in the AFCON 2022 has been played. Compared to the last simulations made in November last year the following changes in the simulated match schedule are made:

• for UEFA all currently scheduled friendlies in the March window are included;
• for CAF the pairing of the final round of 5 home-and-away play-offs in March was drawn, using the November 2021 ranking as seeding ranking;
• for OFC the complete qualification match schedule is known now. All qualifiers will be played in Doha in March to decide the OFC-representative in the IPO's in June. Unfortunately Tonga had to withdraw for their preliminary play-off against the Cook Islands, due to the aftermath of the recent volcanic eruption in their territory. Cook Islands is therefore placed in group A and they will hopefully play their first competitive matches since September 2015;
• AFC, CONCACAF and CONMEBOL played two or three match days of qualifiers. In Asia Iran and South Korea qualified for Qatar while in the other group Japan, Saudi Arabia and Australia battle it out. In CONCACAF Canada was on a roll and won their 3 matches. They are all but qualified. In South America Ecuador and Uruguay made good progress towards direct qualification. Colombia sort of ruined their chances. Even for the IPO-berth Peru seems the first candidate.

FIFA ranking: February 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the February ranking next Thursday February 10th. This final preview contains 123 matches, out of 127 matches played since December 20th. 

Only the third place match tomorrow between tournament host Cameroon and Burkina Faso and the final on Sunday of the African Cup of Nations 2022 between Senegal and Egypt are to be played:

	CMR		BFA
	pts	pos	pts	pos
Cameroon win	1490,93	36	1418,01	56
Cameroon PSO win	1480,93	38	1420,11	56
Burkina Faso PSO win	1473,03	38	1430,11	54
Burkina Faso win	1473,03	38	1440,11	51
	SEN		EGY
	pts	pos	pts	pos
Senegal win	1597,87	17	1493,67	34
Senegal PSO win	1587,87	18	1497,00	34
Egypt PSO win	1581,20	19	1507,00	33
Egypt win	1581,20	19	1517,00	30

Elo predicts a straight Cameroon win for third place and a Senegal PSO win in the final.

FIFA ranking February 2022: preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA February 2022 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

Normally the home team's gained points will be the away-team's lost points. Still, both are given because there are in FIFA's calculation approach cases when they will not be the same: PSO-matches and knock-out matches in final competitions.

FIFA ranking February 2022: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the February 2022 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on February 10th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.

FIFA ranking: February 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable February 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday February 10th.

This ranking will include the semi finals and finals of the South East Asian Championship, the complete African Cup of Nations 2022 in Cameroon and the WC-qualifiers in CONCACAF, AFC and CONMEBOL in the (added) January 2022 match window. Furthermore, quite a few friendlies will be played in this month.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 114 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 124 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.

FIFA ranking: February 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 124 currently scheduled matches up to and including February 6th, used to calculate the February 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.

Also the already played matches since December 20th, (probably) counting for the February ranking, are presented.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.