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Thursday, November 22, 2007

2010 WCQ: Pots for the Durban draw

November 23rd, 11:14: FIFA confirms the pots, with only one difference (Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein switch pots): link

See the oficial pots: link.
_______________________________

This is how the pots should look like for the 2010 WC UEFA preliminary draw. As mentioned before, only the values for the top 12 countries, Russia and Poland are 99% correct (I would say 100% correct, but you never know), being based on official data released by FIFA (Lusankya managed to find the document on the German version of FIFA.com -> pdf file). The other values are computed using historical rankings, different from the ones used by FIFA. For more info, read this. But they're pretty close to the official values (the error should be less than 3,4%). See the differences between the values published by FIFA in October and those calculated by me -> link.

Some of the countries are really close, so you'd better wait for the official rankings. They will be published tomorrow at 10:00 CET.


R Country Pts
--------------------------
1 Italy 1498
2 Spain 1349
3 Germany 1296
4 Czech Republic 1290
5 France 1243
6 Portugal 1241
7 Netherlands 1170
8 Croatia 1129
9 Greece 1114
--------------------------
10 England 1113
11 Romania 1088
12 Scotland 990
13 Turkey 914
14 Bulgaria 879
15 Sweden 864
16 Russia 861
17 Poland 855
18 Israel 849
--------------------------
19 Serbia 842
20 Norway 831
21 Ukraine 811
22 Denmark 786
23 Northern Ireland 784
24 Ireland 739
25 Finland 699
26 Switzerland 663
27 Belgium 595
--------------------------
28 Slovakia 592
29 Hungary 581
30 Bosnia-Herzegovina 578
31 Moldova 573
32 Macedonia 555
33 Wales 553
34 Belarus 552
35 Lithuania 542
36 Cyprus 502
--------------------------
37 Georgia 407
38 Albania 397
39 Slovenia 396
40 Latvia 392
41 Iceland 384
42 Armenia 370
43 Austria 354
44 Kazakhstan 294
45 Liechtenstein 261
--------------------------
46 Azerbaijan 248
47 Estonia 225
48 Malta 185
49 Luxembourg 127
50 Montenegro 65
51 Andorra 59
52 Faroe Islands 13
53 San Marino 6

13 comments:

  1. Great work! It would be amazing if England miss out on pot 2 by just one point! Being Dutch, I'm glad we got lucky and stay in pot 1.

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  2. Serbia plays Kazakhstan on Saturday, will that result have any bearing on the list, especially with Serbia being on top of the third pot?

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  3. The deadline for matches is November 21st, so Serbia - Kazakhstan will not be included.

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  4. Salut, edgar!
    Am vazut ca ti-au citat si cei de la gsp blogul. Felicitari!
    Dar cum de la ei apar alti coeficienti fata de ce ai dat tu?
    Radu Marinescu

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Edgar.
    Oh, i hope the latest ranking is accurate for us :D
    I will be veyr pleased to miss out a meeting with Sweden, since this is the team that we .. just cannot beat. I can recall 8 games with them from 1994 until today and we haven't one even a single one against them.. :(

    Awaiting with passion the FIFA version tomorrow. Will you post it after it gets released?
    Thank you very much for your effort and cooperation. :)

    Congrats for SIXing Albania :D

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  6. @Radu

    Eu am folosit clasamentele "istorice" publicate de FIFA cu mici modificari in functie de datele publicate pentru tarile din top 20. Ionut Iordache a pornit de la clasamentul din octombrie si a preferat sa adune sau sa scada o valoare fixa din pozitia tuturor tarilor pentru a fi cat mai aproape de valoarea publicata de FIFA. De aici diferentele.

    @Yosif

    Yes, I will post the FIFA version, but you can also find it online -> FIfa.com.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Salut tuturor!
    Vad ca si cei de la prosport au aplicat aceeasi formula ca si mine pentru ca au asezat echipele in urne in aceeasi ordine :)
    Mie mi-a luat cam o saptamana sa fac calculele, lor le-a fost de ajuns o zi. Isteti!

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  8. Da, multe minti stralucite la ProSport :)

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  9. the mirror scrie in dimineata asta ca anglia ar putea pierde locul de cap de serie , in favoarea romaniei, conform unei surse din interiorul FIFA !!!
    iata linkul : http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/2007/11/23/you-think-it-s-bad-now-it-could-get-worse-89520-20149532/

    cine stie ce coc astia de la fifa :P

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  10. oricum mai este o ora si ceva si aflam... edgar, parerea mea e ca ei se pot juca cu calculele ca ai vazut, cate persoane calculeaza, atatea rezultate diferite ies... deci nu stiu cine i-ar putea verifica :)

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  11. Sa fim seriosi - jurnalistii englezi :)

    Lor le-a fost frica initial de Scotia, iar dupa ce Italia s-a impus la Glasgow au anuntat sus si tare ca Anglia are asigurat locul in prima urna.

    Acum cu Romania, e foarte simplu. S-au uitat si ei in clasament. "Uite, Romania e chiar sub noi. Ia sa intrebam la FIFA daca ne-ar putea depasi." Si crede-ma, cei de la FIFA nu se ocupa de statistici. Clasamentul FIFA este calculat de o companie separata de FIFA. Asa ca tipul de la FIFA s-a uitat si el pe clasament si pe rezultate si a spus: "Va fi foarte strans".

    Oricum, vom vedea cam intr-o ora.

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  12. credeam ca e calculat de ceva departament pentru logistica si statistica din cadrul fifa... interesant... oricum speranta moare ultima :P

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  13. Congratulations! Your ranking calculations were perfect! At least I've checked down to number 10 and England has indeed gone one point below Greece! Keep up the excellent work!

    ReplyDelete