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Wednesday, May 21, 2008

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (21 May 2008)

23 May 2008

Fixed rounding issues. Thanks Raoul!
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The coefficients for the EURO 2012 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2006 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2008 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2010 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

We already have the results from the 2006 World Cup and the EURO 2008 qualifiers.

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams (Poland and Ukraine - automatically qualified as hosts).

1 Italy 36876
2 Germany 35769
3 Czech Republic 34607
4 France 34218
5 Croatia 33989
6 Spain 33922
7 Romania 33724
8 Netherlands 33672
9 Greece 33557
---------------------------
10 Portugal 32789
11 Sweden 32681
12 England 32430
13 Turkey 30367
14 Russia 30182
15 Switzerland 29651
16 Bulgaria 29196
17 Israel 29085
18 Norway 28599
---------------------------
19 Scotland 27951
20 Serbia 27884
21 Denmark 27669
22 Finland 26045
23 Ireland 25312
24 Slovakia 25312
25 Austria 25152
26 Northern Ireland 24062
27 Belgium 22608
---------------------------
28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440
29 Lithuania 22151
30 Hungary 21012
31 Wales 20890
32 Latvia 20737
33 Belarus 20357
34 Macedonia 20098
35 Slovenia 19868
36 Albania 19432
---------------------------
37 Cyprus 18718
38 Estonia 18154
39 Georgia 18099
40 Moldova 17956
41 Armenia 16473
42 Liechtenstein 15334
43 Iceland 15090
44 Kazakhstan 14483
45 Azerbaijan 12834
---------------------------
46 Malta 12728
47 Luxembourg 10486
48 Andorra 9861
49 Faroe Islands 8867
50 San Marino 7839
51 Montenegro 0

12 comments:

  1. Hi there, well done, you got there one day before me. I finished my program yesterday to verify the rankings published by UEFA, and today I ran my program for the Euro 2012 qualifying. It will be nice to run the program during and afer Euro 2008 to see how things change. I basically have the same numbers except for the following rounding differences:

    4 France, me: 34218, you: 34217
    7 Romania, me: 33724, you: 33725
    19 Scotland, me: 27951, you: 27952
    21 Denmark, me: 27669, you: 27668

    I have Ireland followed by Slovakia, you have Slovakia followed by Ireland (both have 25312).

    27 Belgium, me: 22608, you: 22609
    32 Latvia, me: 20737, you: 20738
    38 Estonia, me: 18154, you: 18153
    41 Armenia, me: 16473, you: 16472
    46 Malta, me: 12728, you: 12729
    48 Andorra, me: 9861, you: 9862

    Of course, it doesn't make much difference, and a lot will still change after Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup qualifying matches have been played... Do you know if you did the rounding correctly, or did I do it wrong. I must say I've coded my program by adding the rounding, but I haven't checked my work to verify if I did it right. It do get exactly the same numbers for the 2007 ranking as published by UEFA two days ago...

    ReplyDelete
  2. I didn't look into it yet. I only did a quick Excel hack :)
    I think you got it right, because I didn't get exactly the same values as UEFA for the 2007 ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Raoul, two questions regarding the 2007 ranking.

    1. Kazakhstan.

    If you look at article 3.3.1 in the pdf document, you have this values:

    2006: 118,506/12 = 9,876 (9,875.5)
    2008: 235,011/14 = 16,787 (16,786.5)

    So for, so good.

    However, when they apply the weighting (2 in both cases), there's a problem with 2008.

    16,787 * 2 = 33,573 (I get 33,574)

    and of course, the final value for them is 13,331 - for me it's 13,332.

    2. Netherlands.

    That's where I have the biggest difference.

    EURO 2004: 525,533/15 = 35,035.53 rounded up to 35,036
    WC 2006: 589,530/16 = 36,845.625 rounded up to 36,846
    EURO 2008: 385,015/12 = 32,084.58 rounded up to 32,085

    Now, the average value is (35,036 + 2*36,846 + 2*32,085)/5 = 34,579.6 rounded up to 34,580

    UEFA has 34,573 - a difference of 7 points.

    What did I do wrong?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Edgar, I think you need to do the rounding at the end, rather than at each calculation, then you should get exactly what UEFA get (at least for the 2007 figures).

    2 times 16,787 can be 33,573 rather than 33,574 if it was 16,786.56 for instance.

    Here's my program's output for the Netherlands:

    Cycle [1]
    Total points: [525033]
    Matches: [15]
    Average points: [35002.2]
    Cycle [2]
    Total points: [589530]
    Matches: [16]
    Average points: [36845.625]
    Cycle [3]
    Total points: [385015]
    Matches: [12]
    Average points: [32084.583333333332]
    TOTAL SCORE: [Netherlands]: [34573]!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Looking at Cycle 1, I have 525,533, you have 525,033 - there must be a goal allowed that I didn't take into consideration.

    Thanks, Raoul!

    ReplyDelete
  6. In other words:

    Cycle 1 average points: [35002.2]
    Cycle 2 average points: [36845.625]
    Cycle 3 average points: [32084.583333333332]

    (35002.2*1 + 36845.625*2 + 32084.583333333332*2) / 5 = 172862.616667 / 5 = 34572.5233333

    Rounded that is 34573.

    ReplyDelete
  7. OK, here's the whole program's output for the Netherlands (minus the SQL which isn't that interesting), that should help you find the missing goal easier... The data should be correct as it comes out of my database, mind you, I entered that by hand over the years so you never know...

    Cycle: [1]
    Tournament: [79] From: [2002/01/01] To: [2003/12/31]
    SQL: [...]
    Netherlands v Belarus 3-0 Score: [41503]
    Austria v Netherlands 0-3 Score: [41503]
    Netherlands v Czech Republic 1-1 Score: [20001]
    Moldova v Netherlands 1-2 Score: [40502]
    Belarus v Netherlands 0-2 Score: [41002]
    Netherlands v Austria 3-1 Score: [41003]
    Czech Republic v Netherlands 3-1 Score: [9001]
    Netherlands v Moldova 5-0 Score: [42505]
    Scotland v Netherlands 1-0 Playoff (1st Leg) Score: [15500]
    Netherlands v Scotland 6-0 Playoff (2nd Leg) Score: [49006]
    Tournament: [78] From: [2004/01/01] To: [2004/12/31]
    SQL: [...]
    Germany v Netherlands 1-1 1st Round Score: [29001]
    Netherlands v Czech Republic 2-3 1st Round Score: [18502]
    Netherlands v Latvia 3-0 1st Round Score: [50503]
    Sweden v Netherlands 0-0 AET 0-0 PEN 4-5 Quarter Final Score: [48000]
    Portugal v Netherlands 2-1 Semi Final Score: [37501]
    Cycle: [2]
    Tournament: [210] From: [2004/01/01] To: [2005/12/31]
    SQL: [...]
    Netherlands v Czech Republic 2-0 Score: [41002]
    Macedonia v Netherlands 2-2 Score: [20002]
    Netherlands v Finland 3-1 Score: [41003]
    Andorra v Netherlands 0-3 Score: [41503]
    Romania v Netherlands 0-2 Score: [41002]
    Netherlands v Armenia 2-0 Score: [41002]
    Netherlands v Romania 2-0 Score: [41002]
    Finland v Netherlands 0-4 Score: [42004]
    Armenia v Netherlands 0-1 Score: [40501]
    Netherlands v Andorra 4-0 Score: [42004]
    Czech Republic v Netherlands 0-2 Score: [41002]
    Netherlands v Macedonia 0-0 Score: [20000]
    Tournament: [209] From: [2006/01/01] To: [2006/12/31]
    SQL: [...]
    Serbia and Montenegro v Netherlands 0-1 1st Round Score: [46501]
    Netherlands v Côte d'Ivoire 2-1 1st Round Score: [46502]
    Netherlands v Argentina 0-0 1st Round Score: [26000]
    Portugal v Netherlands 1-0 2nd Round Score: [18500]
    Cycle: [3]
    Tournament: [79] From: [2006/01/01] To: [2007/12/31]
    SQL: [...]
    Luxembourg v Netherlands 0-1 Score: [40501]
    Netherlands v Belarus 3-0 Score: [41503]
    Bulgaria v Netherlands 1-1 Score: [20001]
    Netherlands v Albania 2-1 Score: [40502]
    Netherlands v Romania 0-0 Score: [20000]
    Slovenia v Netherlands 0-1 Score: [40501]
    Netherlands v Bulgaria 2-0 Score: [41002]
    Albania v Netherlands 0-1 Score: [40501]
    Romania v Netherlands 1-0 Score: [9500]
    Netherlands v Slovenia 2-0 Score: [41002]
    Netherlands v Luxembourg 1-0 Score: [40501]
    Belarus v Netherlands 2-1 Score: [9501]
    Cycle [1]
    Total points: [525033]
    Matches: [15]
    Average points: [35002.2]
    Cycle [2]
    Total points: [589530]
    Matches: [16]
    Average points: [36845.625]
    Cycle [3]
    Total points: [385015]
    Matches: [12]
    Average points: [32084.583333333332]
    TOTAL SCORE: [Netherlands]: [34573]!

    ReplyDelete
  8. Thanks Raoul :)

    I found the error.

    Portugal - Netherlands 2 - 1. I did count it as a defeat for the Netherlands, but I only registered one allowed goal instead of two.

    I did the rounding at the end and now we have the same values (I hope).

    Thanks again!

    ReplyDelete
  9. Ohhh, Poland is not in Europe any more :(

    ReplyDelete
  10. Poland and Ukraine are not in the list, since they will be automatically qualified as hosts.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I think you made a mistake in Austria rankings. Only WC2006 Q should be considered for them and they got 15 points (and +3 GD) in 10 matches, that is 15150 points.
    How did you calculate their rankings?

    ReplyDelete
  12. @amir

    A team gets 10,000 points for each match. Then 30,000 for a win and 10,000 for a draw.

    I think you forgot the first 10,000. If you add this value for each match, you'll get the same result.

    ReplyDelete