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Wednesday, February 3, 2010

FIFA Ranking: February 2010 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Next update: March 1st, 2010 - or sooner if needed.

Montenegro and Comoros to improve their best ever ranking.
Morocco to have their worst ever ranking.
Senegal to return to their worst ever ranking.
Serbia and Guam to return to their best ever ranking.


Probable February 2010 rank - Team - Probable February 2010 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Spain 1642 0 15
2 Brazil 1594 0 26
3 Netherlands 1324 0 36
4 Italy 1226 0 17
5 Germany 1208 1 35
6 Portugal 1201 -1 25
7 France 1171 0 54
8 England 1109 1 33
9 Argentina 1087 -1 5
10 Greece 1074 2 44
11 Croatia 1050 0 -3
12 Russia 1042 1 16
13 Serbia 980 6 64
14 Chile 971 2 16
15 Mexico 968 2 21
15 Switzerland 968 3 44
17 Egypt 967 -7 -102
18 USA 954 -4 -9
19 Uruguay 936 2 27
20 Cameroon 888 0 -26
21 Nigeria 879 -6 -77
22 Côte d'Ivoire 874 0 9
23 Australia 867 0 10
24 Ukraine 851 0 3
25 Denmark 846 1 19
26 Czech Republic 843 -1 15
27 Israel 821 0 -2
28 Slovenia 819 5 52
29 Ghana 818 -2 -5
30 Paraguay 815 -1 9
31 Bulgaria 813 -1 12
32 Slovakia 811 4 59
33 Algeria 804 -2 20
34 Norway 798 -2 26
35 Honduras 776 -1 17
36 Romania 774 2 29
37 Ecuador 761 -2 8
38 Colombia 757 1 21
39 Republic of Ireland 748 -2 2
40 Northern Ireland 747 0 18
41 Turkey 739 1 11
42 Sweden 737 1 10
43 Gabon 706 1 0
44 Japan 704 -4 -25
45 Costa Rica 701 0 2
46 Scotland 681 0 16
47 Latvia 662 2 28
48 Hungary 645 4 30
49 Bosnia-Herzegovina 644 -1 -1
49 Venezuela 644 -2 -2
51 Burkina Faso 638 0 22
52 Finland 635 2 59
53 Korea Republic 608 -4 -26
54 Mali 595 -1 -3
55 Tunisia 587 0 14
56 Austria 567 5 44
57 Saudi Arabia 555 2 17
58 Poland 553 -1 -14
59 Bolivia 546 -4 -27
60 Lithuania 530 2 8
61 Bahrain 512 -1 -18
61 Canada 512 -4 -55
63 Peru 510 5 39
64 FYR Macedonia 506 0 11
65 Benin 503 2 20
66 Cyprus 495 2 24
67 Iran 493 -4 -6
68 Belgium 490 -2 -1
69 Togo 483 1 15
70 Morocco 482 -5 -10
71 Montenegro 456 1 0
72 El Salvador 452 -1 -11
73 Zambia 449 0 0
74 Uganda 447 0 0
75 Uzbekistan 442 0 11
76 Wales 421 0 1
77 Jamaica 407 1 4
78 Panama 402 -1 -4
79 Belarus 400 1 3
80 New Zealand 398 -1 -2
81 South Africa 391 0 0
82 Malawi 388 0 4
83 Mozambique 382 -1 -2
84 Trinidad and Tobago 380 0 -2
85 Angola 379 3 8
86 Iraq 373 0 -2
87 Guinea 367 3 6
88 Haiti 363 7 16
89 China PR 355 -2 -18
89 Iceland 355 5 6
91 Qatar 354 -2 -16
92 Kuwait 351 0 -7
92 Oman 351 1 -1
92 Thailand 351 6 18
95 Senegal 347 -4 -12
96 Gambia 344 2 11
97 Albania 335 0 -1
98 Korea DPR 334 -13 -44
99 Estonia 332 5 17
100 Cape Verde Islands 331 0 0
101 Moldova 330 -5 -8
102 Syria 325 -2 -6
103 Armenia 320 -1 -1
103 Congo 320 0 0
105 Jordan 290 1 14
105 Yemen 290 0 -4
107 Rwanda 282 0 7
108 Tanzania 264 0 -2
109 Sudan 251 0 0
110 Namibia 249 -1 -2
111 Congo DR 248 0 0
112 Kenya 244 0 0
113 Vietnam 231 3 0
114 Azerbaijan 230 0 -6
114 United Arab Emirates 230 -1 -11
116 Libya 227 -1 -6
117 Zimbabwe 224 0 -5
118 Faroe Islands 222 0 0
119 Botswana 218 0 -1
120 Singapore 215 0 -2
121 Guyana 205 5 19
122 Ethiopia 204 -1 0
123 Antigua and Barbuda 203 4 19
124 Cuba 200 1 9
124 Georgia 200 -2 -2
126 Luxembourg 196 -2 1
127 Kazakhstan 191 -4 -10
128 Tajikistan 175 20 52
129 Guatemala 174 2 10
130 Fiji 167 -1 0
131 Grenada 163 2 5
132 Swaziland 161 6 9
133 Myanmar 159 8 15
133 Sierra Leone 159 -1 0
135 Bermuda 156 0 0
136 Indonesia 155 0 0
137 Equatorial Guinea 151 1 -1
138 Maldives 146 2 0
139 Turkmenistan 145 -5 -12
140 India 144 -10 -22
141 Barbados 136 -13 -35
142 Hong Kong 134 -5 -19
143 Suriname 133 -1 0
144 Chad 132 -1 2
145 New Caledonia 126 1 0
146 Burundi 123 1 -1
147 Lesotho 120 2 0
148 Lebanon 116 -3 -11
148 Malta 116 -4 -13
150 Liechtenstein 112 3 2
150 Nepal 112 2 0
152 St. Kitts and Nevis 111 3 5
153 Vanuatu 108 1 0
154 Pakistan 107 2 2
155 Sri Lanka 106 -4 -9
156 Madagascar 105 0 0
157 Malaysia 102 2 2
158 Nicaragua 101 4 9
159 Kyrgyzstan 98 -1 -5
159 Liberia 98 1 0
161 Chinese Taipei 93 1 1
161 Mauritania 93 0 0
163 Bangladesh 92 -13 -25
163 Eritrea 92 -1 0
163 Niger 92 -1 0
166 Netherlands Antilles 90 3 10
167 Puerto Rico 89 -1 0
168 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 86 0 4
169 Philippines 85 -2 0
170 Mongolia 61 0 0
171 Solomon Islands 60 0 0
172 Cambodia 56 1 0
173 Palestine 48 -1 -9
174 Seychelles 44 1 0
175 Bahamas 43 1 0
175 Comoros 43 1 0
177 Mauritius 40 1 0
178 Cayman Islands 39 1 0
178 Laos 39 1 0
178 Somalia 39 1 0
181 Samoa 38 1 0
182 Belize 34 4 1
182 Cook Islands 34 2 0
182 Guam 34 2 0
185 Dominica 33 -3 -5
186 St. Lucia 32 1 0
186 Turks and Caicos Islands 32 -12 -13
188 Macau 31 0 0
189 Tonga 28 0 0
190 Dominican Republic 26 0 0
191 British Virgin Islands 25 0 0
191 Brunei Darussalam 25 0 0
193 Djibouti 23 0 0
194 Afghanistan 20 0 0
195 Guinea-Bissau 19 0 0
195 Tahiti 19 0 0
197 Bhutan 17 0 0
198 Aruba 11 0 0
199 US Virgin Islands 8 0 0
200 Central African Republic 4 0 0
200 Timor-Leste 4 0 0
202 Andorra 3 0 0
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Anguilla 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 0

7 comments:

  1. Hi!
    It is good to see Serbia as 13th ranked nation again. Finally we are in front of Swizerland and USA (both "pushed" by FIFA and Blatter). Now, it's Greece, Russia and Croatia left - Serbia is much better than all above!

    Could you just explain me why Serbia get so many points for next month?
    And of course your comment about the Euro 2012-qualifiers, and the group between France and Romania, once again!
    Are you going to write something about the draw in here?

    Regards
    Serbian

    ReplyDelete
  2. Switzerland and USA are not pushed (ranking-wise) by FIFA or Blatter.

    The friendly win against Tunisia (March 3rd, 2006) will go out of the system - you lose 1.63 points.

    The friendly draw against Macedonia (February 6th, 2008) will lose value (from 50% to 30%) - you lose 8.64 points.

    The February 2009 Cyrus tournament results (win vs. Cyprus, loss vs. Ukraine) lose value (from 100% to 50%) - you lose 5.71 points.

    However, with the Cyprus results losing value, the last time frame average (i.e. results in the last 12 months) rises by 79.37 points.

    Adding it up: -1.63 - 8.64 - 5.71 + 79.37 = 63.39. Due to rounding, you gain 64 points.

    About the draw. Well... I don't expect much from Romania these days. Last time we finished 5th so anything higher would be a bonus :)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Edgar,

    Just wanna say that you are doing a great job. I enjoy visiting your site, 'cause your site can tell me the ranking way before FIFA(mafia)'s official site.

    Good luck to Romania from a serbian. I hope that you will beat the corrupt frenchmen and the overrated bosnian-hercegovinians.

    Regards
    CCCC

    ReplyDelete
  4. edgar , do you mean a boner:D
    yeah, we are weak
    probably we`re gonna finish 3`rd of worse

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Edgar

    Your site rocks it has alot of important information , thanks for the effort and keep going man
    I just wonder why do African teams always loose alot of ranking in feb. after gaining alot in jan. thats question I really hope to get your reply about cause i never knew why !?

    ReplyDelete
  6. I will reply to Academicloody

    African teams loose points in February as a result of african cup of nations. As Fifa ranking accounts for results in the last four years. In February 2010, results from the COCAn 2006 are not accounted anymore and the coefficient for the COCAN 2008 get reduced from 0.50 to 0.30. All this can affect the ranking. The same happens for UEFA members in June and July.

    There is an important drawback for the Fifa pointing system. If we have three teams having the same Fifa ranking before this competition, they ranking can change dramatically. Assume that the three teams get 4 points in the first round (they can be in the same or in different groups), but two of them qualify to the 1/4 finals but one is eliminated.

    On eof the two qualified teams is eliminated in 1/4 of finals but the other qualifies to the 1/2 final but loose in sem-final and loose the game for the 3rd place also.

    If we summarize:
    Team 1 has 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat.

    team 2 has 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats.

    Team 3 has 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats.

    At the end, we can be surprised by finding Team 1 in a better Fifa position than team 2 which appears also before Team 3 in depiste of reaching the semi-finals.

    I think that Fifa should include some bonus points for teams reaching advanced stages in continental and world cup competition.

    A team ranked 4th should always get more points than a team eliminated in the 1/4 finals or in the first round.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Academicloody, Brahim gave you a very good explanation.

    Thanks Brahim!

    ReplyDelete