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Wednesday, February 24, 2010

FIFA Ranking: Spain set to lose top spot

As I already explained last November, Spain will lose their place at the top of the ranking. It will happen either on March 31st or on April 28th, but we'll know exactly on March 3rd.

Brazil need to better against the Republic of Ireland than Spain do against France.

Here are the possible outcomes for Spain and Brazil, depending on their results on March 3rd (and 2nd):

Spain (L - 1563, D - 1576, W - 1602)
Brazil (L - 1559, D - 1569, W - 1589)

If Spain lose against France, Brazil need to get at least a draw against the Republic of Ireland.
If Spain get a point against France, Brazil need three in their match.
If Spain defeat France, they will keep their spot at the top of the rankings.

Since Brazil and Spain don't have other matches before March 31st, we'll know the outcome on March 3rd.

Even if Spain keep their top spot, Brazil will surely overtake them on April 28th.

Spain's total in April with a win against France: 1565 points.
Brazil's total in April with a loss against the Republic of Ireland: 1579 points.

Will that make Brazil a World Cup favorite for Iker Casillas?

3 comments:

  1. I don't understand why, but I can not come up with the same numbers as you. I've been trying multiple times with different countries and different time periods, and I just can not come up with the same number FIFA has used.

    It has to either be something with the numbers used for the opponent strength, or the weights associated with the last 48 months of results. So, two questions:

    Assuming you are calculating the upcoming March 2010 rankings (on the 3rd)...

    1) What month's rankings do you use for the opponent strength?

    2) What date are you using to determine whether a result is 12 months, 24, 36, 48 months ago?

    Everywhere I look tells me the same equation, but there's something I'm not doing right and I can't figure it out. Help!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Bryan,

    I already replied to the first question by email. For those interested, look at the detailed totals section.
    For the date part - I use the release date - March 3rd for the next ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  3. It seems J.A. Espina from AS is either using info from my blog without mentioning the source or he's computing the ranking on his own.

    http://www.as.com/futbol/articulo/futbol-espana-perdera-n-tendra/dasftb/20100317dasdaiftb_70/Tes

    ReplyDelete