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Monday, May 31, 2010

Swiss mathematician using FIFA ranking to predict the World Cup

That seems as an unhappy choice - the FIFA ranking has many flaws... But that's my opinion and I don't have a PhD in mathematics as Mr. Roger Kaufmann has.

More info on his website: RogerKaufmann.ch

He will update the probabilities after each match.

Chances of winning the World Cup (as of May 26):

1 Brazil 15.4
2 Spain 15.2
3 Portugal 6.1
4 Netherlands 5.7
5 Italy 5.2
6 Nigeria 4
7 Cameroon 3.9
8 Germany 3.8
9 Argentina 3.4
10 France 3.3
11 Algeria 3.2
12 England 3.1
13 Cote d'Ivoire 2.7
14 Ghana 2.5
15 Greece 2.2
16 Serbia 2.1
17 USA 2
18 Mexico 1.8
19 Uruguay 1.8
20 Australia 1.6
21 Paraguay 1.5
22 Chile 1.5
23 Slovenia 1.3
24 Slovakia 1.2
25 South Africa 1.1
26 Switzerland 1.1
27 Denmark 1
28 Honduras 0.7
29 Japan 0.7
30 Korea Republic 0.5
31 New Zealand 0.2
32 Korea DPR 0.1

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