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Monday, July 5, 2010

Confederation weighting: CONMEBOL sure to finish top

More on confederation weighting factor calculation.

The current values (with remaining matches included: semifinals, 3rd place match and final) are:

CONMEBOL (61 games, 32 wins): 1
UEFA (112 games, 53 wins): 0.97
The rest: 0.85

If Uruguay win both their matches avoiding PSO, UEFA will drop to 0.95.
If Uruguay lose both their matches avoiding PSO, UEFA will climb to 0.98.


  1. why is "avoiding PSO" relevent?

  2. Because this coefficient is based on wins / games.

    Wins = Wins avoiding PSO.

    Thus a PSO win is as bad as a (straight) loss for the calculation of this coefficient.

  3. really? This is why I think our calculations were always off. I included PSO wins as wins. Not as a loss.

    Is there documentation on this or is this just speculation?

    Using the PSO as a win for the previous world cup got me the same results as FIFA (as did your method obviously).

    Just wondering, Thanks

  4. @Watson: Pretty simple, actually.
    When a game finishes equal after 120 minutes, it is considered as a draw.
    Just because there has to be a winner, penalties are taken.

    In the FIFA World Ranking procedure, the team that wins the PSO, is 'rewarded' with an extra point (2 instead of 1).

  5. Tobcoach, you just contradicted yourself. I understand that it is a draw, but since there is a winner in the match (someone moves on to the next round and someone loses) then does FIFA consider that a win?

    You cannot use the rankings to determine if FIFA counts it as a win for the Confereation Weights, as the rankings have nothing to do with them. I mean just look at how they determine them, only World Cup games count?!?!? That's just flat out wrong. If you think about it, if at some point New Zealand becomes a powerhouse (i know i know it will never happen) and they win the tournament three straight times somehow oceanian is the best confederation.

  6. @Watson

    Look at the calculation method.

    FIFA Ranking: Confederation weighting factor calculation

    Everything after "Now, on to the method" is from FIFA.

    In 1994, CONMEBOL has 17 matches and 8 wins. As you remember Brazil won the final against Italy after PSO.

    Let's look at CONMEBOL's matches in 1994:

    Losses (7):

    Colombia - Romania 1 - 3
    USA - Colombia 2 - 1
    Germany - Bolivia 1 - 0
    Korea Republic - Bolivia 0 - 0
    Bolivia - Spain 1 - 3
    Argentina - Bulgaria 0 - 2
    Romania - Argentina 3 - 2

    Draws (1):

    Brazil - Sweden 1 - 1

    Wins (8):

    Switzerland - Colombia 0 - 2
    Brazil - Russia 2 - 0
    Brazil - Cameroon 3 - 0
    Argentina - Greece 4 - 0
    Argentina - Nigeria 2 - 1
    Brazil - USA 1 - 0
    Netherlands - Brazil 2 - 3
    Sweden - Brazil 0 - 1

    PSO Wins (1):

    Brazil - Italy 0 - 0 3 - 2 PSO

    Total matches: 7 + 1 + 8 + 1 = 17

    If PSO wins were considered as wins, CONMEBOL would have 9 wins from 17 matches.

  7. By the way, they usually update the ranking after WC.

    This time they will say something like "We always look for simpler formulas an methods, so we decided to avoid the weighing calculation and just use 1 for UEFA and Conmebol, and 0.85 for everyone else."

    This way they will get rid of the slight advantage Conmebol should get now because, you know, it is a pain in the a$$.

    Bicycle Kicker

  8. You're very pessimistic BK :)

  9. BK has it right, I expect. FIFA will figure out *some* 'logic' to keep UEFA at '1'.