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Friday, May 18, 2012

EURO 2012 simulations

10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Most likely final:

14.41% - Netherlands vs. Spain
12.73% - Germany vs. Netherlands
11.65% - Germany vs. Spain
4.38% - England vs. Spain
3.17% - Italy vs. Spain
3.05% - Croatia vs. Spain
2.61% - Spain vs. Sweden
2.49% - England vs. Netherlands
2.16% - England vs. Germany
2.09% - Netherlands vs. Portugal

By team

Columns: Team - 4th in group, 3rd in group, out in QF, out in SF, losing finalists, winners


Team G4 G3 LQF LSF LF W
Croatia 23.47% 34.32% 23.62% 11.70% 4.56% 2.33%
Czech Republic 28.51% 26.61% 34.36% 7.34% 2.23% 0.95%
Denmark 57.17% 27.72% 7.03% 5.53% 1.74% 0.81%
England 14.99% 21.70% 33.72% 16.57% 7.67% 5.35%
France 33.69% 27.41% 24.66% 9.34% 3.19% 1.71%
Germany 7.06% 18.45% 15.50% 22.59% 16.57% 19.83%
Greece 29.02% 25.76% 35.63% 6.88% 2.05% 0.66%
Italy 25.03% 31.44% 23.65% 12.49% 4.84% 2.55%
Netherlands 5.00% 13.49% 14.98% 24.39% 18.60% 23.54%
Poland 22.84% 23.71% 40.39% 9.51% 2.79% 0.76%
Portugal 30.77% 40.34% 10.87% 10.69% 4.47% 2.86%
Republic of Ireland 49.82% 28.67% 13.91% 5.35% 1.49% 0.76%
Russia 19.63% 23.92% 41.24% 10.04% 3.59% 1.58%
Spain 1.68% 5.57% 20.69% 22.49% 17.85% 31.72%
Sweden 24.34% 25.53% 30.29% 12.20% 4.99% 2.65%
Ukraine 26.98% 25.36% 29.46% 12.89% 3.37% 1.94%


Champions:

31.72% - Spain
23.54% - Netherlands
19.83% - Germany
5.35% - England
2.86% - Portugal
2.65% - Sweden
2.55% - Italy
2.33% - Croatia
1.94% - Ukraine
1.71% - France
1.58% - Russia
0.95% - Czech Republic
0.81% - Denmark
0.76% - Republic of Ireland
0.76% - Poland
0.66% - Greece

Losing finalists:

18.60% - Netherlands
17.85% - Spain
16.57% - Germany
7.67% - England
4.99% - Sweden
4.84% - Italy
4.56% - Croatia
4.47% - Portugal
3.59% - Russia
3.37% - Ukraine
3.19% - France
2.79% - Poland
2.23% - Czech Republic
2.05% - Greece
1.74% - Denmark
1.49% - Republic of Ireland

Losing semifinalists:

24.39% - Netherlands
22.59% - Germany
22.49% - Spain
16.57% - England
12.89% - Ukraine
12.49% - Italy
12.20% - Sweden
11.70% - Croatia
10.69% - Portugal
10.04% - Russia
9.51% - Poland
9.34% - France
7.34% - Czech Republic
6.88% - Greece
5.53% - Denmark
5.35% - Republic of Ireland

Losing quarterfinalists:

41.24% - Russia
40.39% - Poland
35.63% - Greece
34.36% - Czech Republic
33.72% - England
30.29% - Sweden
29.46% - Ukraine
24.66% - France
23.65% - Italy
23.62% - Croatia
20.69% - Spain
15.50% - Germany
14.98% - Netherlands
13.91% - Republic of Ireland
10.87% - Portugal
7.03% - Denmark

Third in group:

40.34% - Portugal
34.32% - Croatia
31.44% - Italy
28.67% - Republic of Ireland
27.72% - Denmark
27.41% - France
26.61% - Czech Republic
25.76% - Greece
25.53% - Sweden
25.36% - Ukraine
23.92% - Russia
23.71% - Poland
21.70% - England
18.45% - Germany
13.49% - Netherlands
5.57% - Spain

Fourth in group:

57.17% - Denmark
49.82% - Republic of Ireland
33.69% - France
30.77% - Portugal
29.02% - Greece
28.51% - Czech Republic
26.98% - Ukraine
25.03% - Italy
24.34% - Sweden
23.47% - Croatia
22.84% - Poland
19.63% - Russia
14.99% - England
7.06% - Germany
5.00% - Netherlands
1.68% - Spain

Eliminated in the group stage:

84.89% - Denmark
78.49% - Republic of Ireland
71.11% - Portugal
61.10% - France
57.79% - Croatia
56.47% - Italy
55.12% - Czech Republic
54.78% - Greece
52.34% - Ukraine
49.87% - Sweden
46.55% - Poland
43.55% - Russia
36.69% - England
25.51% - Germany
18.49% - Netherlands
7.25% - Spain

6 comments:

  1. No surprises here. Your calculations are similar to the Castrol calculations: (http://www.castrolfootball.com/?page=euro2012)

    ReplyDelete
  2. I wasn't aware of Castrol's calculations. Thanks for pointing them out. They didn't use the Elo ratings anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  3. More likelier than not that France gets eliminated in the first round. Interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Although the favorites are the same, I actually would disagree that the results are *quantitatively* similar to Castrol's. The comparison is quite interesting, because, as I understand the two sims, they're based on completely different data:

    Castrol simulates a team as the sum of its players, using individual stats, whereas

    ELO rankings are based entirely on the historical success of the team.

    The general difference in the results is that Castrol's odds are much flatter. I.e. favorites are more heavily favored by ELO and underdogs are given a better shot by Castrol. For example, in Group B, Portugal and Denmark are given a 50% and 26% chance of advancing by Castrol, compared to only 29% and 15% by your simulations based on ELO rankings. For Portugal, this is consistent with the much-discussed discrepancy between the club play of Ronaldo and recent results for the international side.

    ReplyDelete
  5. So far, both eliminations are wrong at Group A, we'll see Group B tomorrow

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Got one right in Group B, both in Group C and one in Group D.

      Football is not played on paper, nor in my software :)

      Delete