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Friday, January 16, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (16 January 2015)

As explained earlier, AFC have told me they will use the most recent FIFA ranking available at the time of the draw.

With the preliminary round draw taking place two days before the February FIFA ranking release, the pots are already set. I don't quite understand why they couldn't wait for another 3 or 4 days.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 16 January 2015.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.




FIFA have announced all 209 member association will take part in the preliminaries.

Pot 1: India, Sri Lanka, Yemen, Cambodia, Chinese Taipei, Timor-Leste
Pot 2: Macau, Nepal, Pakistan, Mongolia, Brunei Darussalam, Bhutan

Most likely to advance to the group stage over 10000 sims.

92.81% - Yemen
86.51% - India
64.19% - Sri Lanka
58.90% - Chinese Taipei
57.26% - Pakistan
50.58% - Cambodia
50.37% - Nepal
42.84% - Timor-Leste
33.85% - Mongolia
24.95% - Macau
22.70% - Brunei Darussalam
15.04% - Bhutan

Assuming the top 6 from the table above advance, this is how the pots would look like. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.

Pot 1: Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Australia, China PR, Saudi Arabia
Pot 2: Jordan, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Vietnam, Maldives
Pot 3: Palestine, Afghanistan, Philippines, Thailand, Tajikistan, Lebanon, India, Korea DPR
Pot 4: Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Sri Lanka, Syria, Myanmar, Singapore, Indonesia, Turkmenistan
Pot 5: Malaysia, Yemen, Chinese Taipei, Guam, Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos


Broken down by pot:

Pot 5

100.00% - Laos
100.00% - Bangladesh
99.98% - Hong Kong
99.44% - Guam
75.75% - Yemen
60.16% - Malaysia
56.63% - Chinese Taipei
50.58% - Cambodia
29.09% - Timor-Leste
24.83% - Mongolia
22.40% - Brunei Darussalam
15.36% - Turkmenistan
14.33% - Nepal
13.75% - Sri Lanka
13.40% - Bhutan
13.05% - Macau
7.86% - Pakistan
1.97% - Indonesia
1.34% - India
0.04% - Korea DPR
0.04% - Singapore

Pot 4

100.00% - Myanmar
99.96% - Singapore
98.03% - Indonesia
96.91% - Syria
84.64% - Turkmenistan
79.06% - Kyrgyzstan
53.38% - Korea DPR
39.84% - Malaysia
24.51% - Sri Lanka
23.98% - Lebanon
20.07% - India
18.22% - Nepal
17.37% - Pakistan
14.30% - Yemen
8.89% - Timor-Leste
6.71% - Mongolia
6.42% - Macau
2.92% - Tajikistan
2.27% - Chinese Taipei
1.64% - Bhutan
0.56% - Guam
0.30% - Brunei Darussalam
0.02% - Hong Kong

Pot 3

100.00% - Philippines
100.00% - Afghanistan
100.00% - Thailand
97.08% - Tajikistan
81.37% - Palestine
76.02% - Lebanon
65.10% - India
37.60% - Maldives
32.03% - Pakistan
27.61% - Korea DPR
25.93% - Sri Lanka
20.94% - Kyrgyzstan
17.82% - Nepal
5.48% - Macau
4.86% - Timor-Leste
3.09% - Syria
2.76% - Yemen
2.31% - Mongolia

Pot 2

100.00% - Bahrain
100.00% - Vietnam
100.00% - Kuwait
93.94% - Qatar
88.12% - Oman
85.47% - Iraq
69.82% - Jordan
62.40% - Maldives
58.54% - Saudi Arabia
18.97% - Korea DPR
18.63% - Palestine
2.79% - China PR
1.28% - Australia
0.04% - Uzbekistan

Pot 1

100.00% - Korea Republic
100.00% - United Arab Emirates
100.00% - Japan
100.00% - Iran
99.96% - Uzbekistan
98.72% - Australia
97.21% - China PR
41.46% - Saudi Arabia
30.18% - Jordan
14.53% - Iraq
11.88% - Oman
6.06% - Qatar


8 comments:

  1. How is India in pot 3 in round 2 if they have to play preliminary round ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The FIFA-ranking is used to determine which team is placed in which round of the AFC qualifying for the World Cup. Edgar's simulations are based on the ELO-ranking. The results of the simulations are therefore influenced by the relative strength of teams in the ELO-ranking. India is currently situated at rank 180 in this ranking, in the neighbourhood of the likes of Kyrgyzstan, Hong Kong and Singapore and well above the likes of Maldives, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Guam and Laos who are, according to the FIFA ranking, already placed in the group stage.

      Delete
  2. would there be any changes to the preliminary round draw if the Feb ratings were used ???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, there would be. Using the February ranking this would be the seeding for the preliminary round draw:
      seeded: India, Sri Lanka, Yemen, Pakistan, Nepal, Cambodia
      unseeded: Chinese Taipei, Timor-Leste, Macau, Mongolia, Brunei Darussalam, Bhutan

      So seeded places for Nepal and Pakistan instead of Chinese Taipei and Timor-Leste.

      The result of the Pakistan-Afghanistan friendly of February 6th does not change anything in this regard.

      Delete
  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The CAF Executive Committee has approved the format of the 2017 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers, following its meeting on 14 January 2015. The host country of the 2017 edition shall be announced on 8 April 2015 after the CAF Ordinary General Assembly in Cairo, Egypt.

    The qualifiers for the 31st edition of the Africa Cup of Nations will begin in June 2015 using the two dates fixed by FIFA, 08-16 June.

    For the first time, the host country will participate in the qualifying stages; though the matches concerned will not be computed for points, they shall count as friendlies.

    Fifty-two (52) teams will be engaged. They will be divided into 13 groups of 4 teams each. The first from each group shall qualify for the final stage, as well as the best two runners-up, exclusive of the group of the host country, which only one team will qualify.

    Also, if due to the withdrawal of one team and a group happens to be left with just three teams, this group will not be considered when determining the best second team.

    The draws for the groups shall be done on 8 April 2015 in Cairo, immediately after the announcement of the host country of the 2017 edition.

    Also, the CAF Executive Committee has approved the format for the qualifiers of the 2018 FIFA World Cup to be hosted in Russia.

    The competing teams will have to go through three preliminary rounds in order to bring the number of teams down to 20 so as to be able to constitute five (5) groups of four teams, where the first from each group will qualifier for the World Cup.

    The preliminaries of the FIFA World Cup shall begin during the two FIFA dates in October 2015, given that the draws shall take place on 25 July 2015 at Saint-Petersburg in Russia.

    waiting for your discussion and probable ranking and seeding for April draw

    ReplyDelete