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Saturday, January 6, 2024

FIFA ranking: February 2024 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 151 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including February 11th, used to calculate the February 2024 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since December 18th, (probably) counting for the February ranking, are presented.



In the first column is indicated if the match is included or not, according to my inclusion-method. You see after the match identification data, the I-factor, the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo and according to FIFA in %. 


For the already played matches the match result and the exchanged points are given. 


For the scheduled matches the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team are given. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.


Normally the home team's gained points will be the away-team's lost points. Still, both are given because there are in FIFA's calculation approach cases when they will not be the same: PSO-matches and knock-out matches in final competitions.


Before posting comments like: "Hey, my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are calculated predictions of scheduled matches. So no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)


At the end of this post I present the elo and FIFA prediction success rates for all matches in 2023.


Already played

incl.

date

match

tournament

I

We (elo)

We (FIFA)

res and exchanged pts

Y

2023-12-25

KGZ - UZB

Friendly 2023

5

10

39

L: -1,929/1,929

N

2023-12-27

ZAN - TAN

Friendly 2023

5

61

D: 0,000/0,000

Y

2023-12-28

LIB - JOR

Friendly 2023

5

35

42

W: 2,881/-2,881

Y

2023-12-29

OMA - CHN

Friendly 2023

5

62

52

W: 2,378/-2,378

Y

2023-12-30

UAE - KGZ

Friendly 2023

5

90

63

W: 1,834/-1,834

Y

2023-12-31

QAT - CAM

Friendly 2023

5

99

86

W: 0,694/-0,694

Y

2024-01-01

CHN - HKG

Friendly 2024

5

90

73

L: -3,631/3,631

Y

2024-01-01

JPN - THA

Friendly 2024

5

97

85

W: 0,771/-0,771

Y

2024-01-02

LBY - IDN

Friendly 2024

5

61

59

W: 2,067/-2,067

Y

2024-01-04

LIB - KSA

Friendly 2024

5

17

30

L: -1,481/1,481

Y

2024-01-04

TJK - HKG

Friendly 2024

5

84

64

W: 1,806/-1,806

Y

2024-01-05

IRN - BFA

Friendly 2024

5

89

64

W: 1,782/-1,782

Y

2024-01-05

LBY - IDN

Friendly 2024

5

65

59

W: 2,048/-2,048

Y

2024-01-05

QAT - JOR

Friendly 2024

5

68

63

L: -3,148/3,148

Y

2024-01-05

SYR - KGZ

Friendly 2024

5

73

52

D: -0,119/0,119

N

2024-01-05

TOG - ALG

Friendly 2024

5

20

20

L: 0,000/0,000



Scheduled

incl.

date

match

tournament

I

We (elo)

pred elo

We (FIFA)

W

D

L

PSO-W

PSO-L

Y

2024-01-06

BHR - AUS

Friendly 2024

5

13

2

27

3,7/-3,7

1,2/-1,2

-1,3/1,3

Y

2024-01-06

COD - ANG

Friendly 2024

5

66

1

67

1,6/-1,6

-0,9/0,9

-3,4/3,4

Y

2024-01-06

CIV - SLE

Friendly 2024

5

92

1

77

1,2/-1,2

-1,3/1,3

-3,8/3,8

Y

2024-01-06

KOR - IRQ

Friendly 2024

5

74

1

67

1,6/-1,6

-0,9/0,9

-3,4/3,4

Y

2024-01-06

MLI - GNB

Friendly 2024

5

85

1

72

1,4/-1,4

-1,1/1,1

-3,6/3,6

Y

2024-01-06

MOZ - LES

Friendly 2024

5

66

1

63

1,9/-1,9

-0,6/0,6

-3,1/3,1

Y

2024-01-06

TUN - MTN

Friendly 2024

5

93

1

78

1,1/-1,1

-1,4/1,4

-3,9/3,9

Y

2024-01-06

UAE - OMA

Friendly 2024

5

61

X

54

2,3/-2,3

-0,2/0,2

-2,7/2,7

Y

2024-01-07

EGY - TAN

Friendly 2024

5

92

1

80

1,0/-1,0

-1,5/1,5

-4,0/4,0

Y

2024-01-07

PLE - UZB

Friendly 2024

5

31

2

38

3,1/-3,1

0,6/-0,6

-1,9/1,9

Y

2024-01-08

GHA - NAM

Friendly 2024

5

83

1

70

1,5/-1,5

-1,0/1,0

-3,5/3,5

Y

2024-01-08

MOZ - BOT

Friendly 2024

5

53

X

61

1,9/-1,9

-0,6/0,6

-3,1/3,1

Y

2024-01-08

NGA - GUI

Friendly 2024

5

72

1

67

1,7/-1,7

-0,8/0,8

-3,3/3,3

Y

2024-01-08

SEN - NIG

Friendly 2024

5

97

1

86

0,7/-0,7

-1,8/1,8

-4,3/4,3

Y

2024-01-08

SYR - MAS

Friendly 2024

5

67

1

62

1,9/-1,9

-0,6/0,6

-3,1/3,1

Y

2024-01-09

ALG - BDI

Friendly 2024

5

93

1

84

0,8/-0,8

-1,7/1,7

-4,2/4,2

Y

2024-01-09

EQG - DJI

Friendly 2024

5

98

1

82

0,9/-0,9

-1,6/1,6

-4,1/4,1

Y

2024-01-09

IRN - IDN

Friendly 2024

5

96

1

87

0,6/-0,6

-1,9/1,9

-4,4/4,4

Y

2024-01-09

JPN - JOR

Friendly 2024

5

91

1

79

1,0/-1,0

-1,5/1,5

-4,0/4,0

Y

2024-01-09

KSA - PLE

Friendly 2024

5

75

1

69

1,6/-1,6

-0,9/0,9

-3,4/3,4

Y

2024-01-09

VIE - KGZ

Friendly 2024

5

68

1

51

2,4/-2,4

-0,1/0,1

-2,6/2,6

Y

2024-01-09

ZAM - CMR

Friendly 2024

5

33

2

34

3,3/-3,3

0,8/-0,8

-1,7/1,7

Y

2024-01-10

BFA - COD

Friendly 2024

5

58

X

55

2,3/-2,3

-0,2/0,2

-2,7/2,7

Y

2024-01-10

KSA - HKG

Friendly 2024

5

95

1

81

0,9/-0,9

-1,6/1,6

-4,1/4,1

Y

2024-01-10

RSA - LES

Friendly 2024

5

88

1

77

1,2/-1,2

-1,3/1,3

-3,8/3,8

Y

2024-01-10

TUN - CPV

Friendly 2024

5

89

1

68

1,6/-1,6

-0,9/0,9

-3,4/3,4

N

2024-01-11

BHR - ANG

Friendly 2024

5

72

1

60

2,0/-2,0

-0,5/0,5

-3,0/3,0

Y

2024-01-11

MAR - SLE

Friendly 2024

5

95

1

88

0,6/-0,6

-1,9/1,9

-4,4/4,4

Y

2024-01-12

QAT - LIB

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

85

1

69

10,8/-10,8

-6,7/6,7

-24,2/24,2

Y

2024-01-12

LBY - KUW

Friendly 2024

5

65

1

56

2,2/-2,2

-0,3/0,3

-2,8/2,8

Y

2024-01-12

SWE - EST

Friendly 2024

5

87

1

81

0,9/-0,9

-1,6/1,6

-4,1/4,1

Y

2024-01-13

CHN - TJK

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

58

X

59

14,3/-14,3

-3,2/3,2

-20,7/20,7

Y

2024-01-13

AUS - IND

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

95

1

79

7,5/-7,5

-10,0/10,0

-27,5/27,5

Y

2024-01-13

UZB - SYR

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

78

1

60

14,1/-14,1

-3,4/3,4

-20,9/20,9

Y

2024-01-13

CIV - GNB

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

87

1

72

9,6/-9,6

-7,9/7,9

-25,4/25,4

Y

2024-01-13

GUA - ISL

Friendly 2024

5

53

X

36

3,2/-3,2

0,7/-0,7

-1,8/1,8

Y

2024-01-14

IRN - PLE

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

92

1

80

7,2/-7,2

-10,3/10,3

-27,8/27,8

Y

2024-01-14

UAE - HKG

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

93

1

78

7,9/-7,9

-9,6/9,6

-27,1/27,1

Y

2024-01-14

JPN - VIE

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

95

1

81

6,5/-6,5

-11,0/11,0

-28,5/28,5

Y

2024-01-14

NGA - EQG

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

61

1

69

10,9/-10,9

-6,6/6,6

-24,1/24,1

Y

2024-01-14

EGY - MOZ

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

87

1

79

7,5/-7,5

-10,0/10,0

-27,5/27,5

Y

2024-01-14

GHA - CPV

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

61

X

55

15,6/-15,6

-1,9/1,9

-19,4/19,4

Y

2024-01-15

IDN - IRQ

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

12

2

24

26,7/-26,7

9,2/-9,2

-8,3/8,3

Y

2024-01-15

KOR - BHR

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

88

1

74

9,0/-9,0

-8,5/8,5

-26,0/26,0

Y

2024-01-15

MAS - JOR

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

22

2

36

22,4/-22,4

4,9/-4,9

-12,6/12,6

Y

2024-01-15

CMR - GUI

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

76

1

66

11,8/-11,8

-5,7/5,7

-23,2/23,2

Y

2024-01-15

SEN - GAM

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

87

1

85

5,2/-5,2

-12,3/12,3

-29,8/29,8

Y

2024-01-15

ALG - ANG

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

89

1

80

7,1/-7,1

-10,4/10,4

-27,9/27,9

Y

2024-01-16

KSA - OMA

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

55

X

59

14,3/-14,3

-3,2/3,2

-20,7/20,7

Y

2024-01-16

THA - KGZ

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

68

1

46

18,9/-18,9

1,4/-1,4

-16,1/16,1

Y

2024-01-16

BFA - MTN

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

73

1

70

10,7/-10,7

-6,8/6,8

-24,3/24,3

Y

2024-01-16

MLI - RSA

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

68

1

58

14,5/-14,5

-3,0/3,0

-20,5/20,5

Y

2024-01-16

TUN - NAM

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

89

1

80

7,0/-7,0

-10,5/10,5

-28,0/28,0

Y

2024-01-16

HON - ISL

Friendly 2024

5

57

X

48

2,6/-2,6

0,1/-0,1

-2,4/2,4

Y

2024-01-17

LIB - CHN

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

33

2

40

21,0/-21,0

3,5/-3,5

-14,0/14,0

Y

2024-01-17

TJK - QAT

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

80

2

30

24,4/-24,4

6,9/-6,9

-10,6/10,6

Y

2024-01-17

IND - UZB

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

9

2

34

23,0/-23,0

5,5/-5,5

-12,0/12,0

Y

2024-01-17

COD - ZAM

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

54

X

57

15,0/-15,0

-2,5/2,5

-20,0/20,0

Y

2024-01-17

MAR - TAN

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

95

1

88

4,4/-4,4

-13,1/13,1

-30,6/30,6

Y

2024-01-18

SYR - AUS

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

10

2

23

27,0/-27,0

9,5/-9,5

-8,0/8,0

Y

2024-01-18

PLE - UAE

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

30

2

35

22,9/-22,9

5,4/-5,4

-12,1/12,1

Y

2024-01-18

CIV - NGA

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

69

1

47

18,5/-18,5

1,0/-1,0

-16,5/16,5

Y

2024-01-18

EQG - GNB

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

62

1

57

15,1/-15,1

-2,4/2,4

-19,9/19,9

Y

2024-01-18

EGY - GHA

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

70

1

63

12,8/-12,8

-4,7/4,7

-22,2/22,2

Y

2024-01-19

HKG - IRN

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

1

2

11

31,1/-31,1

13,6/-13,6

-3,9/3,9

Y

2024-01-19

IRQ - JPN

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

16

2

27

25,5/-25,5

8,0/-8,0

-9,5/9,5

Y

2024-01-19

VIE - IDN

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

69

1

67

11,7/-11,7

-5,8/5,8

-23,3/23,3

Y

2024-01-19

CPV - MOZ

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

67

1

65

12,4/-12,4

-5,1/5,1

-22,6/22,6

Y

2024-01-19

GUI - GAM

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

52

X

63

12,9/-12,9

-4,6/4,6

-22,1/22,1

Y

2024-01-19

SEN - CMR

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

65

1

62

13,4/-13,4

-4,1/4,1

-21,6/21,6

Y

2024-01-19

UGA - KUW

Friendly 2024

5

64

1

64

1,8/-1,8

-0,7/0,7

-3,2/3,2

Y

2024-01-20

BHR - MAS

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

72

1

65

12,3/-12,3

-5,2/5,2

-22,7/22,7

Y

2024-01-20

JOR - KOR

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

16

2

26

26,0/-26,0

8,5/-8,5

-9,0/9,0

Y

2024-01-20

ALG - BFA

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

72

1

60

13,9/-13,9

-3,6/3,6

-21,1/21,1

Y

2024-01-20

MTN - ANG

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

51

X

52

16,7/-16,7

-0,8/0,8

-18,3/18,3

Y

2024-01-20

TUN - MLI

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

66

1

57

15,1/-15,1

-2,4/2,4

-19,9/19,9

Y

2024-01-20

USA - SVN

Friendly 2024

5

73

1

71

1,4/-1,4

-1,1/1,1

-3,6/3,6

Y

2024-01-21

KGZ - KSA

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

11

2

30

24,6/-24,6

7,1/-7,1

-10,4/10,4

Y

2024-01-21

OMA - THA

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

72

1

63

13,0/-13,0

-4,5/4,5

-22,0/22,0

Y

2024-01-21

RSA - NAM

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

64

1

67

11,6/-11,6

-5,9/5,9

-23,4/23,4

Y

2024-01-21

MAR - COD

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

88

1

77

8,2/-8,2

-9,3/9,3

-26,8/26,8

Y

2024-01-21

ZAM - TAN

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

69

1

63

13,0/-13,0

-4,5/4,5

-22,0/22,0

Y

2024-01-22

QAT - CHN

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

75

1

62

13,5/-13,5

-4,0/4,0

-21,5/21,5

Y

2024-01-22

TJK - LIB

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

62

1

52

16,8/-16,8

-0,7/0,7

-18,2/18,2

Y

2024-01-22

EQG - CIV

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

81

2

31

24,0/-24,0

6,5/-6,5

-11,0/11,0

Y

2024-01-22

GNB - NGA

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

23

2

24

26,5/-26,5

9,0/-9,0

-8,5/8,5

Y

2024-01-22

CPV - EGY

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

23

2

32

23,8/-23,8

6,3/-6,3

-11,2/11,2

Y

2024-01-22

MOZ - GHA

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

25

2

31

24,2/-24,2

6,7/-6,7

-10,8/10,8

Y

2024-01-23

AUS - UZB

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

68

1

67

11,7/-11,7

-5,8/5,8

-23,3/23,3

Y

2024-01-23

SYR - IND

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

71

1

54

16,0/-16,0

-1,5/1,5

-19,0/19,0

Y

2024-01-23

HKG - PLE

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

15

2

35

22,8/-22,8

5,3/-5,3

-12,2/12,2

Y

2024-01-23

IRN - UAE

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

84

1

68

11,3/-11,3

-6,2/6,2

-23,7/23,7

Y

2024-01-23

GAM - CMR

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

22

2

22

27,2/-27,2

9,7/-9,7

-7,8/7,8

Y

2024-01-23

GUI - SEN

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

12

2

21

27,6/-27,6

10,1/-10,1

-7,4/7,4

Y

2024-01-23

ANG - BFA

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

25

2

28

25,2/-25,2

7,7/-7,7

-9,8/9,8

Y

2024-01-23

MTN - ALG

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

10

2

20

28,0/-28,0

10,5/-10,5

-7,0/7,0

Y

2024-01-24

IRQ - VIE

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

76

1

61

13,5/-13,5

-4,0/4,0

-21,5/21,5

Y

2024-01-24

JPN - IDN

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

98

1

91

3,2/-3,2

-14,3/14,3

-31,8/31,8

Y

2024-01-24

NAM - MLI

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

18

2

24

26,5/-26,5

9,0/-9,0

-8,5/8,5

Y

2024-01-24

RSA - TUN

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

17

2

32

23,7/-23,7

6,2/-6,2

-11,3/11,3

Y

2024-01-24

TAN - COD

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

27

2

31

24,2/-24,2

6,7/-6,7

-10,8/10,8

Y

2024-01-24

ZAM - MAR

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

11

2

19

28,3/-28,3

10,8/-10,8

-6,7/6,7

Y

2024-01-25

JOR - BHR

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

58

X

50

17,6/-17,6

0,1/-0,1

-17,4/17,4

Y

2024-01-25

KOR - MAS

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

96

1

86

4,9/-4,9

-12,6/12,6

-30,1/30,1

Y

2024-01-25

KGZ - OMA

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

12

2

36

22,6/-22,6

5,1/-5,1

-12,4/12,4

Y

2024-01-25

KSA - THA

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

78

1

72

9,7/-9,7

-7,8/7,8

-25,3/25,3

Y

2024-01-27

NGA - CMR

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

48

CMR pso win

51

17,3/0,0

0,0/0,2

0,0/17,7

8,5/0,2

0,0/9,0

Y

2024-01-27

ALG - ZAM

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

82

1

73

9,5/0,0

0,0/8,0

0,0/25,5

0,7/8,0

0,0/16,8

Y

2024-01-28

CHN - UAE

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

35

2

42

20,3/0,0

2,8/0,0

0,0/14,7

11,5/0,0

2,8/6,0

Y

2024-01-28

AUS - TJK

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

92

1

80

7,0/0,0

0,0/10,5

0,0/28,0

0,0/10,5

0,0/19,3

Y

2024-01-28

TUN - BFA

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

76

1

63

12,8/0,0

0,0/4,7

0,0/22,2

4,0/4,7

0,0/13,5

Y

2024-01-28

MAR - MLI

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

79

1

70

10,3/0,0

0,0/7,2

0,0/24,7

1,6/7,2

0,0/15,9

Y

2024-01-29

QAT - VIE

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

81

1

69

10,8/0,0

0,0/6,7

0,0/24,2

2,1/6,7

0,0/15,4

Y

2024-01-29

JPN - BHR

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

93

1

80

7,0/0,0

0,0/10,5

0,0/28,0

0,0/10,5

0,0/19,3

Y

2024-01-29

CIV - RSA

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

84

1

63

12,8/0,0

0,0/4,7

0,0/22,2

4,0/4,7

0,0/13,5

Y

2024-01-29

EGY - EQG

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

77

1

75

8,7/0,0

0,0/8,8

0,0/26,3

0,0/8,8

0,0/17,6

Y

2024-01-30

UZB - OMA

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

60

UZB pso win

51

17,3/0,0

0,0/0,2

0,0/17,7

8,5/0,2

0,0/9,0

Y

2024-01-30

KSA - JOR

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

64

1

65

12,1/0,0

0,0/5,4

0,0/22,9

3,3/5,4

0,0/14,2

Y

2024-01-30

SEN - CPV

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

83

1

75

8,7/0,0

0,0/8,8

0,0/26,3

0,0/8,8

0,0/17,6

Y

2024-01-30

GHA - COD

CAF Nations Cup 2023

35

54

GHA pso win

52

16,7/0,0

0,0/0,8

0,0/18,3

8,0/0,8

0,0/9,5

Y

2024-01-31

IRN - SYR

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

92

1

79

7,3/0,0

0,0/10,2

0,0/27,7

0,0/10,2

0,0/19,0

Y

2024-01-31

KOR - IRQ

AFC Nations Cup 2023

35

76

1

68

11,1/0,0

0,0/6,4

0,0/23,9

2,4/6,4

0,0/15,1

Y

2024-02-02

UAE - JPN

AFC Nations Cup 2023

40

11

2

27

29,2/0,0

9,2/0,0

0,0/10,8

19,2/0,0

9,2/0,8

Y

2024-02-02

AUS - KSA

AFC Nations Cup 2023

40

75

1

61

15,4/0,0

0,0/4,6

0,0/24,6

5,4/4,6

0,0/14,6

Y

2024-02-02

EGY - MAR

CAF Nations Cup 2023

40

31

2

38

25,0/0,0

5,0/0,0

0,0/15,0

15,0/0,0

5,0/5,0

Y

2024-02-02

CMR - ALG

CAF Nations Cup 2023

40

30

2

43

23,0/0,0

3,0/0,0

0,0/17,0

13,0/0,0

3,0/7,0

Y

2024-02-02

CRC - SLV

Friendly 2024

5

82

1

62

1,9/-1,9

-0,6/0,6

-3,1/3,1

Y

2024-02-03

QAT - UZB

AFC Nations Cup 2023

40

52

QAT pso win

57

17,0/0,0

0,0/3,0

0,0/23,0

7,0/3,0

0,0/13,0

Y

2024-02-03

IRN - KOR

AFC Nations Cup 2023

40

52

IRN pso win

51

19,6/0,0

0,0/0,4

0,0/20,4

9,6/0,4

0,0/10,4

Y

2024-02-03

GHA - CIV

CAF Nations Cup 2023

40

80

2

40

24,2/0,0

4,2/0,0

0,0/15,8

14,2/0,0

4,2/5,8

Y

2024-02-03

TUN - SEN

CAF Nations Cup 2023

40

52

TUN pso win

45

22,2/0,0

2,2/0,0

0,0/17,8

12,2/0,0

2,2/7,8

Y

2024-02-06

JPN - AUS

AFC Nations Cup 2023

40

64

1

57

17,4/0,0

0,0/2,6

0,0/22,6

7,4/2,6

0,0/12,6

Y

2024-02-07

IRN - QAT

AFC Nations Cup 2023

40

25

1

64

14,4/0,0

0,0/5,6

0,0/25,6

4,4/5,6

0,0/15,6

Y

2024-02-07

ALG - MAR

CAF Nations Cup 2023

40

35

2

38

24,9/0,0

4,9/0,0

0,0/15,1

14,9/0,0

4,9/5,1

Y

2024-02-07

CIV - TUN

CAF Nations Cup 2023

40

51

CIV pso win

44

22,6/0,0

2,6/0,0

0,0/17,4

12,6/0,0

2,6/7,4

Y

2024-02-10

JPN - IRN

AFC Nations Cup 2023

40

63

1

55

17,9/0,0

0,0/2,1

0,0/22,1

7,9/2,1

0,0/12,1

Y

2024-02-10

ALG - TUN

CAF Nations Cup 2023

40

47

TUN pso win

49

20,3/0,0

0,3/0,0

0,0/19,7

10,3/0,0

0,3/9,7

Y

2024-02-11

MAR - CIV

CAF Nations Cup 2023

40

34

1

68

12,9/0,0

0,0/7,1

0,0/27,1

2,9/7,1

0,0/17,1



Here are the prediction success rates of all matches in the year 2023 and for each published ranking in 2023. I give the success rate when predicting with the elo win expectancy and the success rate when predicting with the FIFA win expectancy. Only matches where both win expectancies can be calculated, are included.

Beside the totals, a distinction is further made for competitive (I-factor > 10) and non-competitive 'friendly' matches (I-factor <= 10). 


period

ELO_tot

ELO_fr

ELO_comp

FIFA_tot

FIFA_fr

FIFA_comp

N_tot

N_fr

N_comp

2023

58,7%

56,6%

60,4%

50,5%

45,1%

54,6%

1023

435

588

apr-2023

57,6%

51,3%

66,1%

50,2%

41,6%

61,7%

269

154

115

jul-2023

59,8%

61,6%

57,7%

50,7%

50,4%

51,0%

229

125

104

sep-2023

53,3%

46,2%

57,8%

45,5%

38,5%

50,0%

167

65

102

okt-2023

63,6%

67,6%

60,6%

52,0%

48,6%

54,5%

173

74

99

nov-2023

61,4%

76,2%

59,5%

55,0%

57,1%

54,8%

189

21

168

dec-2023

72,7%

72,7%

0,0%

27,3%

27,3%

0,0%

11

11

0



In general you can see that elo performed some 8 percent-points better than FIFA in 2023. There are several factors that could explain this difference. The most important ones are:

  • elo incorporates home field advantage in their formula for the win expectancy, FIFA doesn't;
  • elo applies a strict zero-sum approach, FIFA doesn't;
  • the match type weights and the scaling factor in the win expectancy calculation used by elo are better than what FIFA uses;
  • when FIFA started with the elo-based calculation of the FIFA ranking in June 2018 the starting points of each team for the new calculation were then determined only on the  ranking positions from the May 2018 ranking, not on the points differences between teams in that ranking. I think it will take quite some more time before the gaps in FIFA-points between teams will reflect the 'true' strength of teams better than currently is the case with the FIFA ranking. That is, if the current FIFA calculation method assumptions don't prevent that from happening at all.


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

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