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Saturday, February 24, 2024

Copa America 2024 simulations (February 2024)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's number four in this series of simulation reports: North, Central and South America.


The Copa America 2024 was initially intended as the continental championship of South America, edition number 48 of this oldest continental championship in the football world. However, in January 2023 a new strategic partnership was signed between CONMEBOL and CONCACAF and with that came a second combined 'Copa of the Americas' (after the Copa America Centenario in 2016). Again 6 CONCACAF teams (besides the 10 CONMEBOL members) were able to qualify for the tournament. It will be hosted by the United States. It is yet unknown if this one is the first of a combined Americas Cup from now on.


Qualification of the six CONCACAF teams was possible by introducing a new quarter final round for four league A teams in the CONCACAF Nations League 2023/24 plus the four highest ranked CONCACAF teams who received a bye to these quarter finals. 

The four quarter final winners (USA, Mexico, Panama and Jamaica) qualified, while the four losers (Canada, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica and Honduras) will play this March in two one-off play-offs against each other for the final two CONCACAF berths.


The Copa America 2024 kicks off on Thursday June 20th and lasts until the final on Sunday July 14th. It has the 'classic' 16-team schedule: 4 groups of 4 teams and a knock-out stage starting with quarter finals for which the numbers one and two from each group qualify.


The complete tournament schedule plus all relevant matches in the upcoming March window are simulated: 

- already scheduled friendlies with CONMEBOL or CONCACAF teams involved

- the CONCACAF Nations League 2023/24 Final Four

- the two final qualification play-offs. 

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.



First, the CONCACAF Nations League 2023/24 Final Four win probabilities for the semi finals, the third place play-off and the final. The Final Four is also hosted by the USA:


team

SF

po3

final

USA

79,68

12,74

49,86

Mexico

58,52

26,32

26,23

Panama

41,48

34,41

17,06

Jamaica

20,32

26,53

6,85



Then the two one-off qualification play-offs between Canada and Trinidad and Tobago and between Costa Rica and Honduras. The probability to qualify for the final tournament:


team

Q

Canada

82,35

Costa Rica

62,77

Honduras

37,23

Trinidad and Tobago

17,65




Then the group stage of the final tournament, with teams ordered by ascending average group position in the last column. The group stage draw was already in December last year:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Argentina

92,34

6,61

0,88

0,17

1,09

Peru

3,71

38,85

32,78

24,66

2,78

Chile

2,09

29,36

35,00

33,55

3,00

Canada

1,81

24,28

28,18

28,08

Trinidad and Tobago

0,05

0,90

3,16

13,54

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Ecuador

49,58

27,76

16,14

6,52

1,80

Mexico

25,18

31,11

27,84

15,87

2,34

Venezuela

19,51

28,36

31,07

21,06

2,54

Jamaica

5,73

12,77

24,95

56,55

3,32

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Uruguay

62,51

27,07

8,49

1,93

1,50

USA

27,46

41,48

23,07

7,99

2,12

Panama

7,79

21,78

42,26

28,17

2,91

Bolivia

2,24

9,67

26,18

61,91

3,48

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Brazil

52,24

38,74

7,79

1,23

1,58

Colombia

43,37

44,42

10,07

2,14

1,71

Paraguay

3,50

12,02

52,91

31,57

3,13

Costa Rica

0,78

4,04

20,74

37,21

Honduras

0,11

0,78

8,49

27,85



Then the knock-out stage, starting with the quarter finals


team

QF

Argentina

98,95

Brazil

90,98

Uruguay

89,58

Colombia

87,79

Ecuador

77,34

USA

68,94

Mexico

56,29

Venezuela

47,87

Peru

42,56

Chile

31,45

Panama

29,57

Canada

26,09

Jamaica

18,50

Paraguay

15,52

Bolivia

11,91

Costa Rica

4,82

Trinidad and Tobago

0,95

Honduras

0,89



The probability to qualify for the semi finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the quarter finals.


team

SF

Argentina

86,01

[86,92]

Brazil

55,31

[60,79]

Colombia

50,39

[57,40]

Uruguay

49,36

[55,10]

Ecuador

39,10

[50,56]

USA

30,59

[44,37]

Mexico

20,22

[35,92]

Peru

15,93

[37,43]

Venezuela

14,56

[30,42]

Chile

10,75

[34,18]

Canada

9,56

[36,64]

Panama

7,23

[24,45]

Paraguay

4,43

[28,54]

Jamaica

3,67

[19,84]

Bolivia

1,61

[13,52]

Costa Rica

0,99

[20,54]

Trinidad and Tobago

0,20

[21,05]

Honduras

0,09

[10,11]



The probability to qualify for the final or the third place play-off. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the semi finals.


team

Final

Po3

Argentina

72,06

[83,78]

13,95

[16,22]

Brazil

30,36

[54,89]

24,95

[45,11]

Uruguay

27,75

[56,22]

21,61

[43,78]

Colombia

25,59

[50,78]

24,80

[49,22]

USA

12,99

[42,46]

17,60

[57,54]

Ecuador

12,42

[31,76]

26,68

[68,24]

Mexico

5,79

[28,64]

14,43

[71,36]

Venezuela

3,32

[22,80]

11,24

[77,20]

Peru

2,54

[15,94]

13,39

[84,06]

Panama

1,93

[26,69]

5,30

[73,31]

Canada

1,73

[18,10]

7,83

[81,90]

Chile

1,61

[14,98]

9,14

[85,02]

Paraguay

0,99

[22,35]

3,44

[77,65]

Jamaica

0,53

[14,44]

3,14

[85,56]

Bolivia

0,22

[13,66]

1,39

[86,34]

Costa Rica

0,16

[16,16]

0,83

[83,84]

Honduras

0,01

[11,11]

0,08

[88,89]

Trinidad and Tobago

0,00

[00,00]

0,20

[100,00]



The probability to win the Copa America 2024 or the third place play-off. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for respectively the final and the third place play-off.


team

Winner

Win po3

Argentina

46,30

[64,25]

9,50

[68,10]

Brazil

13,89

[45,75]

16,57

[66,41]

Uruguay

12,62

[45,48]

14,71

[68,07]

Colombia

11,37

[44,43]

15,41

[62,14]

USA

5,55

[42,73]

10,11

[57,44]

Ecuador

5,10

[41,06]

11,58

[43,40]

Mexico

1,90

[32,82]

5,29

[36,66]

Venezuela

0,86

[25,90]

3,83

[34,07]

Peru

0,63

[24,80]

3,59

[26,81]

Panama

0,48

[24,87]

2,28

[43,02]

Chile

0,48

[29,81]

2,20

[24,07]

Canada

0,43

[24,86]

2,31

[29,50]

Paraguay

0,19

[19,19]

1,32

[38,37]

Jamaica

0,15

[28,30]

0,68

[21,66]

Bolivia

0,03

[13,64]

0,34

[24,46]

Costa Rica

0,02

[12,50]

0,27

[32,53]

Honduras

0,00

[00,00]

0,01

[12,50]

Trinidad and Tobago

0,00

[00,00]

0,00

[00,00]



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

3 comments:

  1. Thanks for this. Might be back in States for it - really enjoyed Centennial Copa - saw Columbia at MetLife and then next day Argentina at Gilette.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mexico can win the Copa America

    ReplyDelete
  3. If Mexico beat Germany in it’s prime, they can beat Argentina eventually.

    ReplyDelete