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Sunday, February 11, 2024

FIFA ranking: February 2024 final preview

FIFA will publish the February ranking this Thursday February 15th. The Asian and African Cup of Nations, played last month in Qatar and Cote d'Ivoire respectively, both left their mark on this ranking.

The Asian Cup was won by host Qatar yesterday for a second consecutive time. In the final against Jordan they needed three penalties (all correctly given, according to people who saw the match) to win 3:1.

The African Cup (with a buck load of surprises throughout the month) will see the final tonight between host Cote d'Ivoire and Nigeria. This is how the points and positions of both teams could change in the ranking:


 

CIV

 

NGA

result

pts

pos

 

pts

pos

CIV win

1494,515

39

1522,195

28

CIV PSO win

1484,515

42

1522,195

28

NGA PSO win

1474,515

44

1530,298

27

NGA win

1472,618

45

1540,298

26


Elo predicts a draw after extra time with the host prevailing after a penalty shoot-out.


Three teams will reach a new high in this ranking:

Senegal (17 - 18 in February 2022)

Qatar (35 - 42 in August 2021)

Tajikistan (99 - 106 in July 2013)


Best movers:

24 - Angola

23 - Qatar

16 - Jordan


Worst movers:

-15 - India, Guinea-Bissau

-13 - Algeria, Vietnam


Best movers in the top 50:

23 - Qatar

14 - Nigeria

7 - Cote d'Ivoire


Worst movers in the top 50:

-13 - Algeria

-12 - Tunisia

-4 - Egypt


Stay safe and healthy everybody !


pos Feb.

team

pts Feb.

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Argentina

1855,20

0

0

2

France

1845,44

0

0

3

England

1800,05

0

0

4

Belgium

1798,46

0

0

5

Brazil

1784,09

0

0

6

Netherlands

1745,48

0

0

7

Portugal

1745,06

0

0

8

Spain

1732,64

0

0

9

Italy

1718,82

0

0

10

Croatia

1717,57

0

0

11

Uruguay

1666,00

0

0

12

Morocco

1663,91

1

2,22

13

USA

1661,70

-1

-3,57

14

Colombia

1655,29

0

0

15

Mexico

1652,70

0

0

16

Germany

1631,22

0

0

17

Senegal

1621,38

3

27,07

18

Japan

1615,20

-1

-4,99

19

Switzerland

1613,44

-1

0

20

Denmark

1601,31

-1

0

21

Iran

1600,37

0

35,29

22

Korea Republic

1566,24

1

15,59

23

Australia

1554,87

2

15,65

24

Ukraine

1553,35

-2

0

25

Austria

1546,10

-1

0

26

Sweden

1531,13

0

0,94

27

Hungary

1525,13

0

0

28

Nigeria

1522,20

14

47,76

29

Wales

1521,88

0

0

30

Poland

1520,24

1

0

31

Ecuador

1519,20

1

0

32

Serbia

1517,43

2

0

33

Peru

1512,68

2

0

34

Scotland

1506,89

2

0

35

Qatar

1506,57

23

99,27

36

Turkey

1505,28

1

0

37

Egypt

1500,38

-4

-18,53

38

Russia

1498,84

0

0

39

Czech Republic

1494,04

0

0

40

Tunisia

1489,86

-12

-33,37

41

Chile

1489,82

-1

0

42

Cote d'Ivoire

1484,51

7

36,86

43

Algeria

1480,28

-13

-39,98

44

Panama

1475,62

-3

0

45

Romania

1472,73

-2

0

46

Norway

1472,36

-2

0

47

Mali

1469,76

4

24,16

48

Slovakia

1465,73

-3

0

49

Greece

1453,95

-2

0

50

Canada

1453,76

-2

0

51

Cameroon

1451,86

-5

-11,20

52

Venezuela

1447,20

-2

0

53

Saudi Arabia

1442,74

3

21,68

54

Costa Rica

1439,46

-2

1,89

55

Slovenia

1431,40

-1

3,56

56

Paraguay

1430,73

-3

0

57

Jamaica

1421,54

-2

0

58

Iraq

1409,33

5

43,35

59

South Africa

1409,10

7

52,02

60

Finland

1401,31

-1

0

61

Burkina Faso

1400,38

-4

-10,63

62

Republic of Ireland

1399,60

-2

0

63

Congo DR

1386,41

4

29,74

64

Albania

1382,69

-2

0

65

Cape Verde Islands

1377,05

8

47,25

66

Uzbekistan

1376,86

2

31,60

67

Ghana

1362,56

-6

-21,63

68

North Macedonia

1362,17

-3

0

69

United Arab Emirates

1355,52

-5

-8,94

70

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1343,32

-1

0

71

Jordan

1343,04

16

70,41

72

Montenegro

1342,64

-2

0

73

Iceland

1342,57

-2

4,18

74

Northern Ireland

1333,17

-2

0

75

Israel

1323,43

0

0

76

Guinea

1320,41

4

30,40

77

Georgia

1312,45

0

0

78

Honduras

1311,43

-2

-2,37

79

Equatorial Guinea

1310,50

9

42,07

80

Oman

1307,67

-6

-17,22

81

El Salvador

1304,26

-3

-1,88

82

Bahrain

1297,32

4

20,03

83

Bulgaria

1289,90

-2

0

84

Gabon

1289,52

-2

0

85

Luxembourg

1285,41

-2

0

86

Bolivia

1284,55

-1

0

87

Zambia

1276,41

-3

-8,15

88

China PR

1273,80

-9

-25,69

89

Syria

1265,06

2

19,79

90

Haiti

1262,50

-1

0

91

Curacao

1262,48

-1

0

92

Uganda

1246,88

0

1,80

93

Angola

1238,19

24

70,14

94

Armenia

1237,15

-1

0

95

Belarus

1232,80

0

0

96

Trinidad and Tobago

1228,05

0

0

97

Palestine

1226,30

2

8,70

98

Benin

1225,10

-1

0

99

Tajikistan

1220,46

7

25,39

100

Kazakhstan

1215,16

0

0

101

Thailand

1206,79

12

30,04

102

Kosovo

1202,77

-1

0

103

Kyrgyzstan

1197,72

-5

-26,42

104

New Zealand

1197,47

0

0

105

Mauritania

1195,77

0

0,52

106

Namibia

1192,97

9

24,59

107

Vietnam

1192,15

-13

-43,43

108

Guatemala

1188,17

0

-1,81

109

Madagascar

1187,63

0

0

110

Mozambique

1185,67

1

4,96

111

Kenya

1181,92

-1

0

112

Congo

1179,80

0

0

113

Azerbaijan

1174,22

1

0

114

Lebanon

1169,34

-7

-23,24

115

Korea DPR

1168,12

1

0

116

Togo

1165,74

2

0

117

India

1165,27

-15

-35,53

118

Guinea-Bissau

1164,01

-15

-33,82

119

Libya

1161,55

1

6,32

120

Tanzania

1160,95

1

5,76

121

Comoros

1156,45

-2

0

122

Malawi

1149,40

1

0

123

Estonia

1148,76

-1

-0,94

124

Zimbabwe

1144,56

0

0

125

Cyprus

1143,42

0

0

126

Sierra Leone

1136,77

1

-1,76

127

Sudan

1128,74

1

0

128

Niger

1127,04

1

-0,71

129

Central African Republic

1121,34

2

0

130

Gambia

1114,79

-4

-25,27

131

Solomon Islands

1113,57

1

0

132

Malaysia

1110,68

-2

-12,19

133

Rwanda

1107,04

0

0

134

Nicaragua

1104,26

0

0

135

Faroe Islands

1102,10

0

0

136

Latvia

1097,84

1

0

137

Kuwait

1094,06

-1

-4,01

138

Lithuania

1086,93

0

0

139

Philippines

1086,17

1

0

140

Burundi

1085,83

-1

-0,79

141

Turkmenistan

1078,25

0

0

142

Antigua and Barbuda

1072,66

0

0

143

Suriname

1071,85

0

0

144

Indonesia

1070,11

2

6,10

145

Ethiopia

1068,79

-1

0

146

Botswana

1065,06

-1

0,56

147

St. Kitts and Nevis

1057,05

0

0

148

Lesotho

1046,74

0

-0,53

149

Eswatini

1045,88

0

0

150

Dominican Republic

1040,77

1

0

151

Yemen

1027,94

1

0

152

Liberia

1024,11

1

0

153

Chinese Taipei

1023,93

1

0

154

Moldova

1022,60

1

0

155

Singapore

1020,50

1

0

156

Hong Kong

1020,34

-6

-22,59

157

Guyana

1018,14

0

0

158

Afghanistan

1017,68

0

0

159

New Caledonia

1008,92

0

0

160

Puerto Rico

1007,19

0

0

161

Maldives

1003,48

0

0

162

Myanmar

1000,46

0

0

163

Tahiti

999,48

0

0

164

Andorra

998,00

0

0

165

Papua New Guinea

990,61

0

0

166

South Sudan

989,29

0

0

167

St. Lucia

988,67

0

0

168

Fiji

981,26

0

0

169

Cuba

980,65

0

0

170

Vanuatu

980,33

0

0

171

Bermuda

972,36

0

0

172

Malta

967,29

0

0

173

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

953,47

0

0

174

Grenada

950,99

0

0

175

Nepal

948,05

0

0

176

Montserrat

946,08

0

0

177

Mauritius

944,95

0

0

178

Barbados

943,80

0

0

179

Cambodia

930,78

0

-0,69

180

Dominica

922,25

0

0

181

Chad

920,37

0

0

182

Belize

918,68

0

0

183

Bangladesh

916,75

0

0

184

Bhutan

913,02

0

0

185

Cook Islands

897,30

0

0

186

Samoa

896,78

0

0

187

Macau

896,62

0

0

188

American Samoa

890,97

0

0

189

Laos

889,62

0

0

190

Mongolia

889,16

0

0

191

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

888,94

0

0

192

Djibouti

882,76

0

1,58

193

Aruba

879,32

0

0

194

Brunei Darussalam

870,63

0

0

195

Pakistan

856,54

0

0

196

Tonga

856,18

0

0

197

Cayman Islands

851,19

0

0

198

Somalia

845,66

0

0

199

Seychelles

845,53

0

0

200

Timor-Leste

843,40

0

0

201

Gibraltar

840,80

0

0

202

Bahamas

835,81

0

0

203

Liechtenstein

833,01

0

0

204

Sri Lanka

822,03

0

0

205

Guam

821,91

0

0

206

Turks and Caicos Islands

818,57

0

0

207

British Virgin Islands

807,57

0

0

208

US Virgin Islands

796,78

0

0

209

Anguilla

785,69

0

0

210

San Marino

741,61

0

0



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

15 comments:

  1. These rankings won't affect any draws I believe, right? Most WC qualifying draws are done, and UEFA and OFC won't happen for a while I believe, and no other competitions in between to draw for, I think.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Indeed Alex,

    FIFA has announced that it will publish rankings on April 4th and June 20th (after the June window but excluding the then already started EURO, Copa America and OFC Nations Cup). I expect a further official ranking published right after those three continental final tournaments are finished (July 18th ?).

    WC draw OFC: July this year (after OFC Nations Cup) probably using that July ranking.
    WC draw UEFA: December this year (after UNL group stage has finished and UNL play-offs are drawn ultimo November).

    CONCACAF starts this March with stage 1: two knock-out home-and-away matches. The single round robin group stage 2 is already drawn and the 4 match days will be played in June 2024 and June 2025. In September 2025 starts group stage 3, with a separate draw, probably in July 2025.

    Underway are:
    AFC stage 2 (group stage): MD2 from 6 until June 2024. Group stage 3 will start in September with a separate draw in July this year, probably using the June ranking.
    CONMEBOL (group stage): MD6 from 18 until September 2025.
    CAF stage 2 (group stage): MD2 from 10 until October 2025.

    In the coming weeks I will give simulation updates on World Cup qualification in all scheduled confederations and for the 3 continental final tournaments in June, but with final qualification play-offs for those tournaments to be played this March.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. OFC stage allocation used December 2022 ranking?

      Delete
    2. OFC stage allocation ? The OFC Cup of Nations 2024 qualification stage, to be played this March, between the 4 lowest ranked OFC-teams was based on the December 2023 ranking. Ultimately American Samoa did not enter the tournament, so Samoa, Tonga and the Cook Islands play a single round robin qualification group stage.

      Delete
    3. Oooo turns out it will be used for 2025 AFCON qualifying first round seeding!!

      Delete
    4. Yeah, as always CAF's draw information is given just-in-time.
      The group stage draw (12 groups of 4 teams) for the AFCON 2025 will probably be staged somewhere in April (after the March window).

      Delete
  3. Why tanzania always 120 despite efforts 😟😟

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tanzania is now back at 119, you mean :)
      Since they rapidly dropped from 120 to 147 in Autumn 2017, Tanzania has camped more than 5 years below position 130 until last June. Tanzania is in a good spell at the moment and held two much higher ranked opponents -Zambia and Congo DR- to a draw at the AFCON.
      Let's see if they can continue that form in their World Cup qualification group with Morocco, Zambia, Niger and Congo.

      Delete
  4. Remarkable as always, but at the same time completely expected because it's FIFA after all! They include the following matches where more than 6 substitutes used:

    2024-01-06 Cote d'Ivoire 5-1 Sierra Leone (home team used 11 substitutes)
    2024-01-06 Dem Rep Congo 0-0 Angola (both teams used 8 substitutes)
    2024-01-06 Mali 6-2 Guinea-Bissau (both teams used 8 substitutes)
    2024-01-12 Sweden 2-1 Estonia (Sweden used 9, Estonia 9 substitutes)

    ReplyDelete
  5. Well, a whopping 26 friendlies -almost all preparatory with African and Asian teams involved- were eventually excluded by FIFA from the February ranking. Friendlies that I included in above preview. Here we go:

    2023-12-25 Kyrgyzstan - Uzbekistan 1:4 in UAE
    2023-12-28 Lebanon - Jordan 2:1 in Lebanon
    2023-12-31 Qatar - Cambodia 3:0 in Qatar
    2024-01-04 Lebanon - Saudi Arabia 0:1 in Qatar
    2024-01-04 Tajikistan - Hong Kong 2:1 in UAE
    2024-01-05 Iran - Burkina Faso 2:1 in Iran
    2024-01-05 Libya - Indonesia 2:1 in Turkey
    2024-01-05 Qatar - Jordan 1:2 in Qatar
    2024-01-05 Syria - Kyrgyzstan 1:1 in UAE
    2024-01-06 Mozambique - Lesotho 2:0 in South Africa
    2024-01-06 Tunisia - Mauritania 0:0 in Tunisia
    2024-01-07 Palestine - Uzbekistan 0:1 in Qatar
    2024-01-08 Ghana - Namibia 0:0 in Ghana
    2024-01-08 Mozambique - Botswana 1:1 in South Africa
    2024-01-08 Senegal - Niger 1:0 in Senegal
    2024-01-08 Syria - Malaysia 2:2 in Qatar
    2024-01-09 Iran - Indonesia 5:0 in Qatar
    2024-01-09 Japan - Jordan 6:1 in Qatar
    2024-01-09 Saudi Arabia - Palestine 0:0 in Qatar
    2024-01-09 Vietnam - Kyrgyzstan 1:2 in Qatar
    2024-01-09 Zambia - Cameroon 1:1 in Saudi Arabia
    2024-01-10 Burkina Faso - Congo DR 2:1 in UAE
    2024-01-10 Saudi Arabia - Hong Kong 2:0 in Qatar
    2024-01-10 South Africa - Lesotho 0:0 in South Africa
    2024-01-11 Morocco - Sierra Leone 3:1 in Cote d'Ivoire
    2024-02-02 Costa Rica - El Salvador 2:0 in Costa Rica

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is much more likely and logical that the Libya 4-0 Indonesia (2024-01-02) match was excluded and the Libya 2-1 Indonesia (2024-01-05) match included in the ranking because for the former both teams used 11 substitutes, and for the latter they kept to the max-6-substitute rule. So I counter that the match on 2024-01-05 was excluded.

      Delete
    2. Personally when deciding to include/exclude friendlies beforehand I don't pay attention to any match report.
      You gave plenty of examples already where apparently this max-6-substitute rule isn't as strictly applied as we all would like, so for me that's a reason to not apply this rule at all before a ranking is published.
      I agree though that it's more likely that the Jan 2 match is excluded instead of the Jan 5 match, given the number of substitutes in each match. And the ranking points calculation of both teams (or any team in the ranking for that matter) won't be influenced by this switch.

      Delete
    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    4. Really? You don't consult the post-match report of matches yet to be played? Anyway, I wasn't referring to your post, merely stating that FIFA had included matches where the rule should have been applied, and may still be for future rankings. As for the examples I gave, that doesn't mean the rule isn't "strictly applied", it is most likely that FIFA haven't got the official match report yet, or the two associations both agreed to waive the rule beforehand, for which I think there's also examples of in the past.

      Delete