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Saturday, March 9, 2024

FIFA ranking: April 2024 probable ranking

Here is the probable April 2024 ranking, to be published on Thursday April 4th. A very diverse offering of matches in the upcoming March window:

- match days 3 and 4 in the groups for AFC World Cup 2026 qualification;

- CONCACAF World Cup 2026 qualification starts with the stage 1 home-and-away play-offs between the 4 lowest ranked CONCACAF teams;

- the three qualification play-off paths for the EURO 2024 with two one-off semi finals and a final in each path;

- the two one-off qualification play-offs for the Copa America 2024, played in the USA;

- a three-team qualifier group for the OFC Nations Cup 2024, played in Tonga;

- qualification for the AFCON 2025 starts with preliminary play-offs between the eight lowest ranked African teams;

- the Final Four in the CONCACAF Nations League 2024, played in the USA;

- the two-legged play-off between Lithuania and Gibraltar, deciding which team remains in league C and which team relegates to league D of the UEFA Nations League 2024/25;

- lots of friendlies, both singularly scheduled and in tournament form, with the prototype of the new FIFA Series staged in 4 countries.


This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 161 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 172 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.


pos Apr.

team

pts Apr.

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Argentina

1857,97

0

2,77

2

France

1850,50

0

5,06

3

England

1809,85

0

9,80

4

Belgium

1795,28

0

-3,18

5

Brazil

1773,79

0

-10,30

6

Portugal

1750,41

1

5,35

7

Netherlands

1747,20

-1

1,72

8

Spain

1737,35

0

4,71

9

Croatia

1720,53

1

2,96

10

Italy

1719,60

-1

0,78

11

USA

1680,99

2

19,29

12

Uruguay

1669,43

-1

3,43

13

Morocco

1666,42

-1

3,03

14

Colombia

1659,37

0

4,08

15

Mexico

1654,86

0

2,16

16

Germany

1629,30

0

-1,92

17

Senegal

1624,70

0

3,96

18

Japan

1621,88

0

7,55

19

Iran

1613,92

1

5,69

20

Denmark

1607,70

1

6,39

21

Switzerland

1606,41

-2

-7,03

22

Korea Republic

1576,11

0

9,90

23

Ukraine

1568,49

1

15,14

24

Australia

1563,93

-1

9,11

25

Austria

1549,91

0

3,81

26

Wales

1543,88

3

22,00

27

Hungary

1532,16

0

7,03

28

Sweden

1531,73

-2

0,60

29

Ecuador

1523,23

2

4,03

30

Nigeria

1522,26

-2

0

31

Serbia

1519,17

1

1,74

32

Peru

1515,82

1

3,14

33

Poland

1512,74

-3

-7,50

34

Qatar

1507,94

3

8,60

35

Scotland

1507,42

-1

0,53

36

Russia

1503,37

2

4,53

37

Egypt

1502,77

-1

2,39

38

Turkey

1495,90

-3

-9,38

39

Cote d'Ivoire

1493,76

0

-0,81

40

Czech Republic

1491,58

0

-2,46

41

Panama

1490,84

3

15,22

42

Tunisia

1488,20

-1

-2,95

43

Algeria

1487,76

0

7,52

44

Chile

1486,80

-2

-3,02

45

Norway

1482,46

1

10,10

46

Romania

1473,08

-1

0,35

47

Mali

1472,39

0

2,58

48

Slovakia

1461,60

0

-4,13

49

Canada

1461,14

1

7,38

50

Greece

1457,92

-1

3,97

51

Saudi Arabia

1456,03

2

14,63

52

Cameroon

1452,59

-1

0

53

Venezuela

1447,29

-1

0,09

54

Costa Rica

1439,17

0

1,60

55

Slovenia

1430,55

0

-0,85

56

Paraguay

1426,38

0

-4,35

57

Jamaica

1422,25

0

0,71

58

Iraq

1420,47

1

11,03

59

South Africa

1407,62

-1

-2,61

60

Burkina Faso

1405,31

1

5,39

61

Republic of Ireland

1399,74

1

0,14

62

Finland

1391,66

-2

-9,65

63

Congo DR

1388,26

0

0

64

Uzbekistan

1386,58

2

10,08

65

Albania

1380,06

-1

-2,63

66

Cape Verde Islands

1378,44

-1

1,38

67

United Arab Emirates

1366,45

2

10,90

68

North Macedonia

1364,09

0

1,92

69

Ghana

1363,42

-2

0

70

Jordan

1350,21

0

6,61

71

Montenegro

1341,81

1

-0,83

72

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1335,60

-1

-7,72

73

Georgia

1333,76

4

21,31

74

Iceland

1329,61

-1

-12,96

75

Israel

1328,97

0

5,54

76

Northern Ireland

1326,10

-2

-7,07

77

Guinea

1324,65

-1

4,23

78

Oman

1323,23

2

15,63

79

Honduras

1319,30

-1

7,87

80

Equatorial Guinea

1313,03

-1

2,53

81

Bahrain

1307,53

1

10,21

82

El Salvador

1300,14

-1

-6,00

83

Gabon

1287,33

1

-2,19

84

China PR

1287,24

4

13,46

85

Bolivia

1283,85

1

-0,70

86

Bulgaria

1282,63

-3

-7,27

87

Syria

1278,55

2

13,04

88

Zambia

1275,71

-1

0

89

Luxembourg

1273,56

-4

-11,85

90

Haiti

1262,50

0

0

91

Curacao

1262,48

0

0

92

Uganda

1246,88

0

0

93

Palestine

1238,66

4

11,46

94

Angola

1236,47

-1

-1,64

94

Belarus

1236,47

1

3,67

96

Armenia

1234,07

-2

-3,08

97

Benin

1220,71

1

-4,39

98

Trinidad and Tobago

1219,96

-2

-8,09

99

Kyrgyzstan

1213,60

5

16,63

100

Kazakhstan

1209,84

0

-5,32

101

Tajikistan

1204,26

-2

-14,63

102

Vietnam

1201,46

3

6,88

103

Kosovo

1200,88

-1

-1,89

104

Thailand

1196,82

-3

-9,90

105

Madagascar

1195,86

4

8,23

106

New Zealand

1195,09

-3

-2,38

107

Namibia

1192,13

0

0

108

Mauritania

1190,50

-2

-3,98

109

Mozambique

1184,49

1

0

110

Guatemala

1183,27

-2

-4,90

111

India

1182,89

6

17,72

112

Azerbaijan

1182,78

1

8,56

113

Kenya

1181,92

-2

0

114

Congo

1179,80

-2

0

115

Togo

1170,25

1

4,51

116

Tanzania

1164,77

3

3,79

117

Guinea-Bissau

1164,01

1

0

118

Korea DPR

1160,57

-4

-7,55

119

Lebanon

1158,96

-4

-9,11

120

Libya

1156,80

0

-2,71

121

Comoros

1156,45

0

0

122

Malawi

1149,40

0

0

123

Zimbabwe

1144,56

1

0

124

Estonia

1143,92

-1

-4,84

125

Cyprus

1141,06

0

-2,36

126

Sierra Leone

1137,36

0

0

127

Sudan

1128,74

0

0

128

Central African Republic

1128,21

1

6,87

129

Niger

1120,57

-1

-7,18

130

Gambia

1114,80

0

0

131

Solomon Islands

1113,57

0

0

132

Nicaragua

1106,39

2

2,13

133

Faroe Islands

1103,45

2

1,35

134

Rwanda

1102,44

-1

-4,60

135

Latvia

1100,91

1

3,07

136

Lithuania

1095,23

2

8,30

137

Malaysia

1094,54

-5

-15,63

138

Kuwait

1085,46

-1

-8,59

139

Burundi

1081,63

1

-4,20

140

Philippines

1075,14

-1

-11,03

141

Antigua and Barbuda

1072,66

1

0

142

Suriname

1071,85

2

0

143

Turkmenistan

1070,70

-2

-7,55

144

Ethiopia

1068,79

1

0

145

Indonesia

1065,77

-3

-6,89

146

Botswana

1065,07

0

0,57

147

St. Kitts and Nevis

1061,61

0

4,56

148

Eswatini

1061,39

1

15,51

149

Lesotho

1047,27

-1

0

150

Dominican Republic

1042,86

0

2,09

151

Liberia

1042,08

1

17,97

152

Moldova

1020,46

3

-2,14

153

Guyana

1020,31

4

2,17

154

Yemen

1017,05

-3

-10,89

155

Hong Kong

1012,83

-1

-10,08

156

South Sudan

1009,07

10

19,78

157

New Caledonia

1008,92

2

0

158

Chinese Taipei

1007,30

-5

-16,63

159

Singapore

1007,03

-3

-13,47

160

Puerto Rico

1005,52

0

-1,67

161

Maldives

1003,48

0

0

162

Afghanistan

999,97

-4

-17,71

163

Tahiti

999,48

0

0

164

Andorra

993,79

0

-4,21

165

Papua New Guinea

990,27

0

-0,34

166

St. Lucia

988,67

1

0

167

Myanmar

987,43

-5

-13,03

168

Vanuatu

982,14

2

1,81

169

Fiji

981,26

-1

0

170

Cuba

976,80

-1

-3,85

171

Bermuda

974,30

0

1,94

172

Malta

963,21

0

-4,08

173

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

953,47

0

0

174

Grenada

950,99

0

0

175

Montserrat

946,08

1

0

176

Barbados

943,80

2

0

177

Chad

939,67

4

19,30

178

Nepal

937,84

-3

-10,21

179

Mauritius

931,90

-2

-13,05

180

Cambodia

925,40

-1

-6,07

181

Dominica

922,25

-1

0

182

Belize

920,35

0

1,67

183

Bangladesh

905,30

0

-11,45

184

Bhutan

904,05

0

-8,97

185

Macau

896,62

2

0

186

Cook Islands

896,30

-1

-1,00

187

Samoa

895,84

-1

-0,94

188

American Samoa

890,97

0

0

189

Laos

889,62

0

0

190

Mongolia

884,07

0

-5,09

191

Aruba

875,82

2

-3,50

192

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

869,16

-1

-19,78

193

Djibouti

864,78

-1

-17,98

194

Brunei Darussalam

862,65

0

-7,98

195

Tonga

858,11

1

1,93

196

Cayman Islands

851,19

1

0

197

Pakistan

849,94

-2

-6,60

198

Seychelles

845,53

1

0

199

Timor-Leste

843,40

1

0

200

Bahamas

835,81

2

0

201

Gibraltar

832,50

0

-8,30

202

Somalia

830,14

-4

-15,52

203

Turks and Caicos Islands

829,53

3

10,96

204

Liechtenstein

827,75

-1

-5,26

205

Sri Lanka

824,46

-1

2,43

206

Guam

821,91

-1

0

207

British Virgin Islands

819,56

0

11,99

208

US Virgin Islands

784,79

0

-11,99

209

Anguilla

774,73

0

-10,96

210

San Marino

737,05

0

-4,56


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

6 comments:

  1. The coefficient for 2023–24 UEFA Women's Nations League A (group and final four) is 45 (Olympic qualifier).

    Neutral ground or Home vs. Away (two-leg fixtures)
    some examples
    CAF/AFC Women's Olympic Qualifying Tournament
    First Leg – North Korea v Japan (played in Saudi Arabia - Neutral ground) No home team(North Korea) for the purposes of calculation.

    ReplyDelete
  2. IFAB - Laws of the Game
    Number of substitutions

    Official competitions
    The number of substitutes, up to a maximum of five, which may be used in any match played in an official competition will be determined by FIFA, the confederation or the national football association.

    exception
    Extra time
    The competition rules must state:
    whether one additional substitute may be used when a match goes into extra time (whether or not the team has already used the full number of permitted substitutes)

    concussion substitutions
    ----------------------------------



    Other matches
    In senior ‘A’ international team matches, a maximum of fifteen substitutes may be named of which a maximum of six may be used.
    In all other matches, a greater number of substitutes may be used provided that:
    .the teams reach agreement on a maximum number
    .the referee is informed before the match
    If the referee is not informed, or if no agreement is reached before the match, each team is allowed a maximum of six substitutes.

    The FIFA Series should be considered as friendly (non-official competition) (Since teams made six substitutions)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hehe, The prediction for the Indonesian team was wrong

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, Indonesia was for once a positive surprise. I'm glad you found that amusing.

      Delete
  4. Hello Ad,

    Is there a way to calculate Hungary's élő gain in case of:
    -win against Ireland friendly
    -win against Israel friendly
    -win against Switzerland EURO group match
    -loss against Germany EURO group match
    -win against Scotland EURO group match
    -loss against let's say Italy EURO knockout match

    What I'm trying to calculate is whether Hungary will be closer to the desired 12th UEFA spot currently occupied by Ukraine - and if so, by how much.

    Appreciate all your work as always.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hey Stevie, with your proposed results (and all other currently scheduled matches and EURO 2024 knock-out stage as elo predicts them at the moment, Hungary loses according to elo in the EURO round of 16 against Croatia) the European teams around UEFA spot 12 after the EURO 2024 tournament will be ranked as follows:
    ...
    10 Denmark 1607 pts
    11 Ukraine 1582 pts
    12 Switzerland 1578 pts
    13 Hungary 1560 pts
    14 Austria 1555 pts
    ...
    A draw against Germany (and the rest unchanged) will leave Hungary at 1577 pts, just short of the coveted 12th UEFA spot. A win against Germany will get you to 1594 pts and 11th UEFA-spot.
    But the Dutch experienced only yesterday that Germany is getting better and better again...

    Btw, my name is Ed :)

    ReplyDelete