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Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Qualification World Cup 2026 10.000 simulations (March 2024)

In the qualification tournaments for the World Cup 2026 only Asia continues their group stage in the upcoming March window. Africa and South America have a break until respectively June and September. 

North and Central America and the Caribbean will start their qualification campaign with a first stage this March, consisting of two home-and-away play-offs between the four lowest ranked teams. The two winners will progress to stage 2 and join the 28 teams who got a bye, in a group stage with a single round robin format, starting in June. The draw for the first two stages was staged last January with a seeding based on the December 2023 ranking.


The qualification format and schedule for OFC was also revealed a short while ago. They will play their first stage in September: two semi finals and a final, hosted by Samoa, between the four lowest ranked teams. Then in October and November 8 teams (the 7 teams who got a bye and the stage one winner) in 2 groups play a single round robin group stage. The draw for these stages will be in July, with seeding probably based on the July 2024 ranking.


Then in March next year stage 3 is played between the group numbers one and two, consisting of two one-off semi finals and a final, to decide which team takes the OFC berth at the World Cup. The losing finalist qualifies for the interconfederational play-offs in March 2026.


See for a description of the qualifying formats per confederation and first simulation results of CONMEBOL and AFC before the start of their qualification here and for CAF here.


I've simulated the complete scheduled group stage qualification for CONMEBOL, AFC and CAF, together with the first two stages for CONCACAF.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.


AFC


In Asia stage 1 (10 play-offs) was played in October and the first two match days in the groups in stage 2 were played in November. The group results with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Qatar

93,85

5,05

1,10

0,00

1,07

India

2,79

48,97

45,31

2,93

2,48

Kuwait

3,36

45,31

49,35

1,98

2,50

Afghanistan

0,00

0,67

4,24

95,09

3,94

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Japan

99,53

0,47

0,00

0,00

1,00

Syria

0,42

74,95

24,34

0,29

2,25

Korea DPR

0,05

24,51

74,95

0,49

2,76

Myanmar

0,00

0,07

0,71

99,22

3,99

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Korea Republic

96,07

3,44

0,49

0,00

1,04

China PR

1,99

53,13

40,61

4,27

2,47

Thailand

1,94

42,53

53,44

2,09

2,56

Singapore

0,00

0,90

5,46

93,64

3,93

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Oman

60,20

26,89

12,83

0,08

1,53

Malaysia

28,97

36,76

34,05

0,22

2,06

Kyrgyzstan

10,82

36,24

51,18

1,76

2,44

Chinese Taipei

0,01

0,11

1,94

97,94

3,98

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Iran

85,68

14,32

0,00

0,00

1,14

Uzbekistan

14,32

85,50

0,17

0,01

1,86

Turkmenistan

0,00

0,04

63,11

36,85

3,37

Hong Kong

0,00

0,14

36,72

63,14

3,63

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Iraq

98,44

1,52

0,04

0,00

1,02

Vietnam

1,34

71,89

24,10

2,67

2,28

Indonesia

0,19

25,32

60,59

13,90

2,88

Philippines

0,03

1,27

15,27

83,43

3,82

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Saudi Arabia

73,70

18,01

8,29

0,00

1,35

Jordan

11,89

48,95

39,07

0,09

2,27

Tajikistan

14,41

33,04

52,53

0,02

2,38

Pakistan

0,00

0,00

0,11

99,89

4,00

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

United Arab Emirates

78,79

20,66

0,55

0,00

1,22

Bahrain

20,98

77,71

1,31

0,00

1,80

Yemen

0,23

1,57

91,83

6,37

3,04

Nepal

0,00

0,06

6,31

93,63

3,94

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Australia

99,81

0,18

0,01

0,00

1,00

Palestine

0,14

80,30

18,95

0,61

2,20

Lebanon

0,05

19,20

74,92

5,83

2,87

Bangladesh

0,00

0,32

6,12

93,56

3,93



Probabilities to qualify for stage 3 (as number 1 or 2 from the 9 groups) plus a column indicating the difference in %-points compared to the simulations before the start of qualification:


team

Q

diff

Iran

100,00

0,33

Japan

100,00

0,29

Australia

99,99

0,59

Iraq

99,96

2,97

Uzbekistan

99,82

5,85

Korea Republic

99,51

1,28

United Arab Emirates

99,45

4,47

Qatar

98,90

6,85

Bahrain

98,69

1,70

Saudi Arabia

91,71

3,33

Oman

87,09

-10,71

Palestine

80,44

9,91

Syria

75,37

18,66

Vietnam

73,23

3,31

Malaysia

65,73

6,38

Jordan

60,84

-29,15

China PR

55,12

-11,38

India

51,76

19,85

Kuwait

48,67

-22,36

Tajikistan

47,45

25,87

Kyrgyzstan

47,06

6,11

Thailand

44,47

12,52

Indonesia

25,51

-5,30

Korea DPR

24,56

-18,73

Lebanon

19,25

-10,35

Yemen

1,80

-5,41

Philippines

1,30

-0,98

Singapore

0,90

-2,42

Afghanistan

0,67

-4,32

Bangladesh

0,32

0,13

Hong Kong

0,14

-1,16

Chinese Taipei

0,12

-1,77

Myanmar

0,07

-0,21

Nepal

0,06

-0,76

Turkmenistan

0,04

-5,02

Pakistan

0,00

-0,02



The probable pots for the stage 3 group draw (3 groups of 6 teams). The teams are ordered by their average pot, weighed with the probability to qualify for stage 3:


team

pot 1

pot 2

pot 3

pot 4

pot 5

pot 6

Japan

100,00

0

0

0

0

0

Iran

99,91

0,09

0

0

0

0

Australia

88,53

11,46

0

0

0

0

---------------------------

Korea Republic

11,56

87,95

0

0

0

0

Qatar

0

94,61

4,29

0

0

0

Saudi Arabia

0

70,16

21,55

0

0

0

---------------------------

Iraq

0

35,14

64,82

0

0

0

Uzbekistan

0

0,54

99,22

0,06

0

0

United Arab Emirates

0

0,05

96,72

2,68

0

0

---------------------------

Bahrain

0

0

2,12

94,41

2,16

0

Oman

0

0

6,56

80,25

0,28

0

Palestine

0

0

0

5,17

74,51

0,76

---------------------------

Syria

0

0

0

24,35

51,00

0,02

Jordan

0

0

4,67

56,00

0,17

0

Vietnam

0

0

0

0,09

23,17

49,97

---------------------------

China PR

0

0

0,05

29,27

25,80

0

Malaysia

0

0

0

0

0,11

65,62

Tajikistan

0

0

0

5,53

41,01

0,91

---------------------------

Thailand

0

0

0

1,82

40,05

2,60

India

0

0

0

0

4,06

47,70

Kyrgyzstan

0

0

0

0,36

25,96

20,74

Kuwait

0

0

0

0

0,11

48,56

Korea DPR

0

0

0

0

7,09

17,47

Indonesia

0

0

0

0

0

25,51

Lebanon

0

0

0

0,01

4,52

14,72

Yemen

0

0

0

0

0

1,80

Philippines

0

0

0

0

0

1,30

Singapore

0

0

0

0

0

0,90

Afghanistan

0

0

0

0

0

0,67

Bangladesh

0

0

0

0

0

0,32

Hong Kong

0

0

0

0

0

0,14

Chinese Taipei

0

0

0

0

0

0,12

Myanmar

0

0

0

0

0

0,07

Nepal

0

0

0

0

0

0,06

Turkmenistan

0

0

0

0

0

0,04

Pakistan

0

0

0

0

0

0



CONMEBOL


In South America the first six match days of 18 in total have been played last Autumn. Here are the group results with teams ordered by average group position (in the last column). I've included the 3 points initial penalty for Ecuador:


team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

avg

Argentina

73,82

18,12

6,03

1,77

0,23

0,03

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

1,37

Uruguay

13,64

37,52

27,01

15,48

4,92

1,13

0,25

0,05

0,00

0,00

2,65

Colombia

10,76

28,71

32,63

20,47

6,15

1,06

0,15

0,07

0,00

0,00

2,87

Brazil

1,52

12,57

24,16

36,00

18,43

5,44

1,45

0,37

0,04

0,02

3,82

Ecuador

0,23

2,66

8,42

19,60

41,65

17,92

5,91

2,46

0,88

0,27

4,97

Venezuela

0,03

0,41

1,55

5,07

18,71

38,91

19,36

9,91

4,41

1,64

6,24

Chile

0,00

0,00

0,03

0,46

2,62

10,57

22,47

22,22

21,87

19,76

8,08

Paraguay

0,00

0,01

0,06

0,46

2,83

8,38

18,52

23,79

24,92

21,03

8,21

Bolivia

0,00

0,00

0,03

0,32

2,07

8,94

15,72

20,35

23,88

28,69

8,40

Peru

0,00

0,00

0,08

0,37

2,39

7,62

16,17

20,78

24,00

28,59

8,41



Probabilities for direct qualification (nrs 1 to 6) and for the IPO (nr 7) plus columns indicating the difference in %-points compared to the simulations before the start of qualification:


team

direct Q

IPO

diff Q

diff IPO

Argentina

100,00

0,00

0,29

-0,19

Colombia

99,78

0,15

9,55

-5,13

Uruguay

99,70

0,25

13,62

-6,77

Brazil

98,12

1,45

-0,97

0,83

Ecuador

90,48

5,91

32,81

-10,08

Venezuela

64,68

19,36

37,54

3,66

Chile

13,68

22,47

-15,30

6,22

Paraguay

11,74

18,52

-19,06

1,59

Bolivia

11,36

15,72

0,89

6,36

Peru

10,46

16,17

-59,37

3,51



CAF


In Africa the first two match days in the group stage were played in November. The group results with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Egypt

74,24

21,16

3,96

0,58

0,06

0,00

1,31

Burkina Faso

23,13

59,22

14,15

2,97

0,53

0,00

1,99

Guinea-Bissau

2,14

12,31

43,48

24,53

17,45

0,09

3,43

Sierra Leone

0,26

4,74

20,25

36,90

36,75

1,10

4,08

Ethiopia

0,23

2,57

18,14

34,80

42,80

1,46

4,22

Djibouti

0,00

0,00

0,02

0,22

2,41

97,35

5,97

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Senegal

92,80

6,20

0,84

0,15

0,01

0,00

1,08

Congo DR

5,50

52,75

24,43

12,58

4,14

0,60

2,59

Togo

0,87

20,19

27,00

26,80

19,99

5,15

3,60

Sudan

0,50

11,67

25,52

30,81

24,14

7,36

3,89

Mauritania

0,33

8,79

20,47

24,81

36,43

9,17

4,16

South Sudan

0,00

0,40

1,74

4,85

15,29

77,72

5,68

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Nigeria

65,46

24,28

7,22

2,37

0,56

0,11

1,49

South Africa

26,94

40,81

18,63

8,41

3,65

1,56

2,26

Rwanda

3,00

11,87

25,97

25,35

20,14

13,67

3,89

Zimbabwe

2,47

11,69

20,45

24,83

22,13

18,43

4,08

Benin

1,53

7,12

17,29

22,57

27,52

23,97

4,39

Lesotho

0,60

4,23

10,44

16,47

26,00

42,26

4,90

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Cape Verde Islands

43,37

29,70

18,08

8,35

0,49

0,01

1,93

Cameroon

33,74

28,86

24,39

11,28

1,71

0,02

2,18

Angola

15,89

26,26

29,32

23,94

4,50

0,09

2,75

Libya

6,93

14,67

25,94

45,49

6,56

0,41

3,31

Eswatini

0,07

0,51

2,18

9,89

69,31

18,04

5,02

Mauritius

0,00

0,00

0,09

1,05

17,43

81,43

5,80

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Morocco

99,31

0,69

0,00

0,00

0,00

1,01

Zambia

0,62

54,48

29,37

12,54

2,99

2,63

Tanzania

0,07

34,19

35,17

21,39

9,18

3,05

Niger

0,00

5,50

20,28

39,45

34,77

4,03

Congo

0,00

5,14

15,18

26,62

53,06

4,28

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Cote d'Ivoire

67,46

23,11

6,81

2,06

0,56

0,00

1,45

Gabon

27,07

48,88

16,78

5,89

1,38

0,00

2,06

Kenya

2,71

11,47

29,60

26,62

29,48

0,12

3,69

Burundi

1,62

8,03

24,50

34,19

31,53

0,13

3,86

Gambia

1,14

8,51

22,31

31,19

36,63

0,22

3,94

Seychelles

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,05

0,42

99,53

5,99

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Algeria

84,16

11,78

3,01

0,81

0,24

0,00

1,21

Guinea

10,64

45,83

23,87

13,85

5,80

0,01

2,58

Mozambique

1,90

20,77

25,49

28,93

22,83

0,08

3,50

Botswana

1,25

11,17

24,63

32,02

30,84

0,09

3,80

Uganda

2,05

10,45

23,00

24,38

40,03

0,09

3,90

Somalia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,26

99,73

6,00

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Tunisia

67,98

28,76

2,97

0,28

0,01

0,00

1,36

Equatorial Guinea

30,61

59,66

8,27

1,37

0,09

0,00

1,81

Malawi

0,85

6,30

40,77

39,33

11,67

1,08

3,58

Namibia

0,54

5,03

40,65

36,14

16,70

0,94

3,66

Liberia

0,02

0,25

7,10

21,04

58,78

12,81

4,77

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

0,00

0,00

0,24

1,84

12,75

85,17

5,83

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Mali

73,53

19,49

5,30

1,39

0,28

0,01

1,35

Ghana

21,05

48,00

19,68

8,08

2,69

0,50

2,25

Comoros

3,15

15,96

34,24

27,28

16,10

3,27

3,47

Madagascar

1,63

9,72

23,84

29,77

28,44

6,60

3,93

Central African Republic

0,63

6,31

15,03

27,47

35,97

14,59

4,36

Chad

0,01

0,52

1,91

6,01

16,52

75,03

5,64



The probabilities to qualify for the play-offs as one of the 4 best group runners-up, with in square brackets the probability to qualify for the play-off, given that the team is a group runner-up. Also a column indicating the difference in %-points compared to the simulations before the start of qualification:


team

PO

diff

Equatorial Guinea

49,83

[83,52]

29,50

Burkina Faso

41,83

[70,63]

14,35

Gabon

33,85

[69,25]

20,13

Tunisia

25,87

[89,95]

17,29

Guinea

24,30

[53,02]

11,32

Ghana

20,04

[41,75]

-4,70

Cote d'Ivoire

18,04

[78,06]

5,79

Egypt

17,65

[83,41]

1,24

Cape Verde Islands

16,11

[54,24]

-4,45

Congo DR

15,22

[28,85]

-6,67

Cameroon

14,95

[51,80]

-0,58

Angola

12,53

[47,72]

4,49

Mali

11,28

[57,88]

-9,20

Mozambique

8,73

[42,03]

4,37

South Africa

8,67

[21,24]

-6,75

Algeria

8,39

[71,22]

0,71

Nigeria

7,17

[29,53]

-4,36

Guinea-Bissau

6,25

[50,77]

-0,96

Kenya

6,23

[54,32]

1,42

Libya

5,87

[40,01]

2,29

Comoros

5,42

[33,96]

4,65

Gambia

3,92

[46,06]

-10,76

Togo

3,89

[19,27]

1,06

Uganda

3,89

[37,22]

-4,68

Senegal

3,86

[62,26]

-4,03

Burundi

3,86

[48,07]

2,03

Botswana

3,85

[34,47]

-2,32

Malawi

3,56

[56,51]

0,46

Namibia

3,15

[62,62]

-2,13

Madagascar

1,99

[20,47]

0,88

Sudan

1,85

[15,85]

0,81

Sierra Leone

1,58

[33,33]

-0,73

Rwanda

1,39

[11,71]

0,85

Zimbabwe

1,26

[10,78]

-0,53

Central African Republic

1,03

[16,32]

-2,01

Mauritania

0,99

[11,26]

-4,97

Ethiopia

0,69

[26,85]

-1,84

Benin

0,45

[6,32]

-4,40

Lesotho

0,25

[5,91]

-0,02

Zambia

0,08

[0,15]

-33,59

Tanzania

0,08

[0,23]

-2,84

Liberia

0,07

[28,00]

-2,20

Eswatini

0,03

[5,88]

-1,57

Chad

0,03

[5,77]

-0,18

Morocco

0,02

[2,90]

-5,15

Congo

0,00

[0,00]

-1,22

Niger

0,00

[0,00]

-0,66

South Sudan

0,00

[0,00]

-0,04

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01

Djibouti

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Mauritius

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Seychelles

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Somalia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00




CONCACAF


In North and Central America and the Caribbean the first stage play-off win probabilities are:

team

win_po

Turks and Caicos Islands

74,30

British Virgin Islands

60,51

US Virgin Islands

39,49

Anguilla

25,70



The group results in stage 2 with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Honduras

81,94

15,18

2,55

0,32

0,01

1,21

Cuba

14,47

56,80

22,41

5,80

0,52

2,21

Bermuda

2,99

21,96

48,34

22,79

3,92

3,03

Antigua and Barbuda

0,59

5,81

23,45

54,11

16,04

3,79

Cayman Islands

0,01

0,25

3,25

16,98

79,51

4,76

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Costa Rica

79,29

19,78

0,91

0,02

0,00

1,22

Trinidad and Tobago

20,11

70,51

7,98

1,36

0,04

1,91

Grenada

0,32

5,43

45,26

40,29

8,70

3,52

St. Kitts and Nevis

0,28

4,14

42,32

43,78

9,48

3,58

Bahamas

0,00

0,14

3,53

14,55

81,78

4,78

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Haiti

75,30

22,11

2,39

0,19

0,01

1,28

Curacao

22,58

59,92

13,45

3,43

0,62

2,00

St. Lucia

1,66

11,38

44,06

28,01

14,89

3,43

Aruba

0,33

4,30

24,42

36,72

34,23

4,00

Barbados

0,13

2,29

15,68

31,65

50,25

4,30

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Panama

94,75

4,93

0,31

0,01

0,00

1,06

Nicaragua

3,87

52,71

31,40

9,33

2,69

2,54

Guyana

1,33

34,91

42,69

15,43

5,64

2,89

Belize

0,01

4,34

14,63

40,21

40,81

4,17

Montserrat

0,04

3,11

10,97

35,02

50,86

4,34

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Jamaica

68,59

28,07

3,16

0,18

0,00

1,35

Guatemala

29,40

58,25

11,39

0,91

0,05

1,84

Dominican Republic

1,95

12,62

67,60

17,26

0,57

3,02

Dominica

0,06

1,03

17,31

73,35

8,25

3,89

British Virgin Islands

0,00

0,02

0,34

5,76

54,39

US Virgin Islands

0,00

0,01

0,20

2,54

36,74

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

El Salvador

58,99

26,92

10,42

3,44

0,23

1,59

Suriname

28,62

37,64

22,53

10,17

1,04

2,17

Puerto Rico

8,66

21,85

37,21

30,36

1,92

2,95

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

3,70

13,43

28,88

49,84

4,15

3,37

Turks and Caicos Islands

0,03

0,15

0,88

5,40

67,84

Anguilla

0,00

0,01

0,08

0,79

24,82



And the probability to qualify (as group number 1 or 2 from the 6 groups) for the next group stage 3:

team

q_stage 3

Panama

99,68

Costa Rica

99,07

Haiti

97,41

Honduras

97,12

Jamaica

96,66

Trinidad and Tobago

90,62

Guatemala

87,65

El Salvador

85,91

Curacao

82,50

Cuba

71,27

Suriname

66,26

Nicaragua

56,58

Guyana

36,24

Puerto Rico

30,51

Bermuda

24,95

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

17,13

Dominican Republic

14,57

St. Lucia

13,04

Antigua and Barbuda

6,40

Grenada

5,75

Aruba

4,63

St. Kitts and Nevis

4,42

Belize

4,35

Montserrat

3,15

Barbados

2,42

Dominica

1,09

Cayman Islands

0,26

Turks and Caicos Islands

0,18

Bahamas

0,14

British Virgin Islands

0,02

Anguilla

0,01

US Virgin Islands

0,01



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

4 comments:

  1. Any news about seeding for European Qualifiers? Will FIFA Ranking matter or just Nations League results?

    ReplyDelete
  2. No confirmed news yet about seeding of the UEFA group stage qualifiers.
    But I still expect the prevalent FIFA ranking to be used as seeding instrument for the draw of this FIFA competition. UNL-results are only used to produce the 4 best group winners (not qualified already) for the subsequent play-offs, together with the 12 group runners-up, to decide the final 4 berths.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The AFC Pot 1 percentages seem indicate that South Korea should be ranked #4 in Asia for the next round of qualifiers, whereas (despite dropping points to Thailand on MD#) South Korea still rank ahead of Australia after WCQ MD4 results and have higher ranked opponents on MD5 and MD6 - is the model still predicting South Korea in Pot 2?

    ReplyDelete