Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (4 April 2024)

Sunday, May 26, 2024

UEFA EURO 2024 simulations (May 2024)

The UEFA EURO 2024 will be played between June 14th and July 14th in Germany. It's a 24-team tournament in the now known format with 6 groups of 4 teams and with, besides the group numbers one and two, the four best group numbers three also progressing to the first knock-out round, the round of 16.


The complete tournament schedule plus already scheduled friendlies with UEFA teams involved in the June window are simulated.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.


First the group stage of the final tournament, with teams ordered by ascending average group position in the last column:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Germany

57,56

25,66

12,33

4,45

1,64

Hungary

18,99

29,80

25,95

25,26

2,57

Switzerland

13,42

25,00

32,48

29,10

2,77

Scotland

10,03

19,54

29,24

41,19

3,02

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Spain

46,78

29,57

20,07

3,58

1,80

Croatia

26,86

34,56

33,09

5,49

2,17

Italy

25,63

32,82

36,33

5,22

2,21

Albania

0,73

3,05

10,51

85,71

3,81

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

England

59,01

24,49

11,34

5,16

1,63

Denmark

19,05

30,71

29,05

21,19

2,52

Serbia

11,61

24,99

31,77

31,63

2,83

Slovenia

10,33

19,81

27,84

42,02

3,02

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

France

61,01

26,29

9,83

2,87

1,55

Netherlands

24,10

40,04

24,05

11,81

2,24

Austria

12,47

24,68

35,84

27,01

2,77

Poland

2,42

8,99

30,28

58,31

3,44

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Belgium

57,85

30,58

9,48

2,09

1,56

Ukraine

32,10

37,93

21,70

8,27

2,06

Romania

5,69

17,84

37,37

39,10

3,10

Slovakia

4,36

13,65

31,45

50,54

3,28

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Portugal

68,31

21,91

7,76

2,02

1,43

Czech Republic

14,24

30,49

30,37

24,90

2,66

Turkey

12,60

30,67

29,68

27,05

2,71

Georgia

4,85

16,93

32,19

46,03

3,19



Then the knock-out stage, starting with the round of 16. Teams can qualify for this round as group number one or two (q_nr1_2) or as one of the best four group numbers three (q_nr3). The teams are ordered by their summed qualification probability for this round (Q_tot):

team

q_nr1_2

q_nr3

Q_tot

Portugal

90,22

6,89

97,11

Belgium

88,43

8,28

96,71

France

87,30

8,06

95,36

Germany

83,22

10,64

93,86

England

83,50

9,95

93,45

Spain

76,35

16,36

92,71

Italy

58,45

29,72

88,17

Croatia

61,42

26,12

87,54

Ukraine

70,03

15,17

85,20

Netherlands

64,14

19,86

84,00

Czech Republic

44,73

22,41

67,14

Denmark

49,76

17,15

66,91

Hungary

48,79

16,55

65,34

Turkey

43,27

18,09

61,36

Austria

37,15

23,58

60,73

Serbia

36,60

21,47

58,07

Switzerland

38,42

18,70

57,12

Scotland

29,57

20,70

50,27

Slovenia

30,14

16,83

46,97

Romania

23,53

17,50

41,03

Slovakia

18,01

19,81

37,82

Georgia

21,78

15,36

37,14

Poland

11,41

15,12

26,53

Albania

3,78

5,68

9,46



The probabilities to qualify for each further round in the knock-out stage. Now are also the percentages presented in square brackets to qualify for the round, given qualification for the previous knock-out round.

Quarter finals

team

QF

France

75,26

[78,92]

Spain

65,15

[70,27]

Germany

61,82

[65,86]

England

61,81

[66,14]

Portugal

60,82

[62,63]

Belgium

57,81

[59,78]

Netherlands

53,70

[63,93]

Italy

53,67

[60,87]

Croatia

53,47

[61,08]

Ukraine

36,48

[42,82]

Austria

30,06

[49,50]

Denmark

26,63

[39,80]

Hungary

26,45

[40,48]

Serbia

20,45

[35,22]

Switzerland

20,02

[35,05]

Czech Republic

17,91

[26,68]

Scotland

16,44

[32,70]

Slovenia

15,27

[32,51]

Turkey

14,82

[24,15]

Poland

9,02

[34,00]

Romania

7,92

[19,30]

Slovakia

7,22

[19,09]

Georgia

5,80

[15,62]

Albania

2,00

[21,14]



Semi finals

team

SF

France

51,19

[68,02]

Germany

37,35

[60,42]

Spain

37,26

[57,19]

Portugal

36,85

[60,59]

England

34,72

[56,17]

Netherlands

29,17

[54,32]

Belgium

28,57

[49,42]

Italy

27,89

[51,97]

Croatia

27,88

[52,14]

Ukraine

14,06

[38,54]

Austria

12,80

[42,58]

Hungary

10,23

[38,68]

Denmark

9,65

[36,24]

Switzerland

7,48

[37,36]

Serbia

6,82

[33,35]

Czech Republic

5,84

[32,61]

Scotland

5,40

[32,85]

Turkey

4,85

[32,73]

Slovenia

4,36

[28,55]

Poland

2,53

[28,05]

Romania

1,68

[21,21]

Slovakia

1,57

[21,75]

Georgia

1,40

[00,00]

Albania

0,45

[00,00]



Final

team

Final

France

32,18

[62,86]

Germany

21,70

[58,10]

Spain

21,18

[56,84]

Portugal

20,09

[54,52]

England

17,40

[50,12]

Belgium

14,88

[52,08]

Netherlands

14,62

[50,12]

Italy

13,71

[49,16]

Croatia

13,56

[48,64]

Ukraine

5,60

[39,83]

Austria

4,89

[38,20]

Hungary

3,97

[38,81]

Denmark

3,36

[34,82]

Switzerland

2,47

[33,02]

Serbia

2,29

[33,58]

Czech Republic

2,02

[34,59]

Scotland

1,63

[30,19]

Turkey

1,36

[28,04]

Slovenia

1,36

[31,19]

Poland

0,71

[28,06]

Georgia

0,35

[25,00]

Romania

0,32

[19,05]

Slovakia

0,31

[19,75]

Albania

0,04

[08,89]



And the winner is:

team

Winner

France

19,56

[60,78]

Germany

12,04

[55,48]

Spain

11,45

[54,06]

Portugal

10,37

[51,62]

England

9,03

[51,90]

Belgium

7,62

[51,21]

Netherlands

6,57

[44,94]

Italy

6,34

[46,24]

Croatia

6,32

[46,61]

Ukraine

2,16

[38,57]

Austria

1,91

[39,06]

Hungary

1,49

[37,53]

Denmark

1,23

[36,61]

Serbia

0,77

[33,62]

Switzerland

0,74

[29,96]

Czech Republic

0,60

[29,70]

Scotland

0,53

[32,52]

Slovenia

0,43

[31,62]

Turkey

0,42

[30,88]

Poland

0,25

[35,21]

Georgia

0,08

[22,86]

Slovakia

0,05

[16,13]

Romania

0,04

[12,50]

Albania

0,00

[00,00]



Then a closer look to the most probable match-ups in the different knock-out stages. A total of 275 different match-ups are generated in this simulation. Here are per match the 10 most probable match-ups presented. Also per knock-out stage a total overview of the 20 most probable match-ups.

First the chances of the 4 group winners of groups B, C, E and F to meet a group third from the other groups in the round of 16:

 

nr 3 from group

group winner

A

B

C

D

E

F

B

24,89

0

0

16,73

27,64

30,74

C

0

0

0

34,87

33,12

32,01

E

16,73

39,71

28,54

15,02

0

0

F

24,97

38,17

36,86

0

0

0




Round of 16

A2 - B2 (Berlin 29/6)

A1 - C2 (Dortmund 29/6)

Hungary - Croatia

10,66

Germany - Denmark

17,48

Hungary - Italy

9,86

Germany - Serbia

14,51

Switzerland - Croatia

8,68

Germany - England

14,08

Germany - Croatia

8,68

Germany - Slovenia

11,49

Hungary - Spain

8,40

Hungary - Denmark

6,06

Germany - Italy

8,36

Hungary - Serbia

4,73

Switzerland - Italy

8,30

Hungary - England

4,60

Germany - Spain

7,85

Switzerland - Denmark

4,21

Switzerland - Spain

7,23

Hungary - Slovenia

3,60

Scotland - Croatia

6,54

Switzerland - Serbia

3,28

C1 - nr 3 (Gelsenkirchen 30/6)

B1 - nr 3 (Cologne 30/6)

England - Austria

6,77

Spain - Czech Republic

5,33

England - Czech Republic

6,74

Spain - Slovakia

4,39

England - Turkey

6,38

Spain - Turkey

3,86

England - Slovakia

6,29

Spain - Georgia

3,66

England - Netherlands

5,99

Spain - Romania

3,61

England - Romania

5,73

Spain - Switzerland

3,51

England - Ukraine

5,35

Spain - Scotland

3,33

England - Georgia

4,86

Spain - Ukraine

3,14

England - Poland

4,21

Croatia - Czech Republic

2,97

England - Belgium

2,42

Italy - Czech Republic

2,89

D2 - E2 (Dusseldorf 1/7)

F1 - nr 3 (Frankfurt 1/7)

Netherlands - Ukraine

15,11

Portugal - Italy

9,70

Netherlands - Belgium

12,44

Portugal - Serbia

8,72

France - Ukraine

9,80

Portugal - Croatia

8,54

Austria - Ukraine

9,63

Portugal - Slovenia

6,86

France - Belgium

7,88

Portugal - Denmark

6,65

Netherlands - Romania

7,53

Portugal - Spain

5,39

Austria - Belgium

7,45

Portugal - Scotland

5,13

Netherlands - Slovakia

4,96

Portugal - Switzerland

4,61

France - Romania

4,42

Portugal - Hungary

4,17

Austria - Romania

4,35

Portugal - England

3,91

E1 - nr 3 (Munchen 2/7)

D1 - F2 (Leipzig 2/7)

Belgium - Italy

8,42

France - Czech Republic

18,92

Belgium - Croatia

7,56

France - Turkey

18,30

Belgium - Serbia

5,67

France - Portugal

13,24

Belgium - Spain

4,98

France - Georgia

10,55

Ukraine - Italy

4,98

Netherlands - Turkey

7,70

Ukraine - Croatia

4,41

Netherlands - Czech Republic

6,94

Belgium - Slovenia

4,31

Netherlands - Portugal

5,34

Belgium - Denmark

4,28

Netherlands - Georgia

4,12

Belgium - Scotland

3,02

Austria - Turkey

3,96

Belgium - Austria

2,96

Austria - Czech Republic

3,86

Total Round of 16

Czech Republic - France

18,92

France - Turkey

18,30

Denmark - Germany

17,48

Netherlands - Ukraine

16,52

Belgium - Netherlands

14,90

Germany - Serbia

14,51

England - Germany

14,08

France - Portugal

13,24

Croatia - Hungary

12,41

Hungary - Italy

11,50

Germany - Slovenia

11,49

Austria - Ukraine

11,29

Hungary - Spain

11,10

Spain - Switzerland

10,74

Croatia - Switzerland

10,59

France - Georgia

10,55

Italy - Portugal

10,53

Austria - Belgium

10,41

France - Ukraine

10,24

Italy - Switzerland

10,13



Quarter finals

B1/nr 3 - A1/C2 (Stuttgart 5/7)

F1/nr 3 - D2/E2 (Hamburg 5/7)

Spain - Germany

16,18

Portugal - Netherlands

12,51

Croatia - Germany

8,50

Portugal - France

9,61

Italy - Germany

8,08

Portugal - Belgium

7,60

Spain - England

4,30

Portugal - Ukraine

7,03

Spain - Hungary

3,78

Portugal - Austria

6,97

Spain - Denmark

3,78

Italy - Netherlands

1,87

Spain - Serbia

2,94

Portugal - Poland

1,84

Spain - Switzerland

2,65

Czech Republic - Netherlands

1,81

Italy - England

2,63

Portugal - Romania

1,75

Croatia - England

2,61

Croatia - Netherlands

1,58

C1/nr 3 - A2/B2 (Dusseldorf 6//7)

E1/nr 3 - D1/F2 (Berlin 6//7)

England - Croatia

9,54

Belgium - France

19,43

England - Italy

9,14

Ukraine - France

9,16

England - Spain

8,36

Belgium - Netherlands

7,07

England - Germany

6,07

Italy - France

3,99

England - Hungary

4,89

Belgium - Portugal

3,58

England - Switzerland

3,59

Croatia - France

3,15

England - Scotland

2,59

Belgium - Austria

3,02

Denmark - Spain

2,35

Ukraine - Netherlands

2,86

Denmark - Croatia

2,26

Spain - France

2,48

Denmark - Italy

2,04

Belgium - Czech Republic

2,28

Total Quarter finals

Belgium - France

19,43

Germany - Spain

16,18

England - Spain

12,66

Netherlands - Portugal

12,63

Croatia - England

12,15

England - Italy

11,77

Belgium - Portugal

11,18

France - Portugal

9,82

France - Ukraine

9,16

Portugal - Ukraine

8,64

Croatia - Germany

8,50

Germany - Italy

8,08

Austria - Portugal

7,24

Belgium - Netherlands

7,07

England - Germany

6,38

Denmark - Spain

6,13

France - Italy

5,96

England - Hungary

5,14

Croatia - France

5,01

Italy - Netherlands

4,50



Semi finals

Total Semi finals

England - France

10,68

Germany - Portugal

8,56

Portugal - Spain

7,30

France - Spain

7,23

France - Germany

6,36

Croatia - France

6,10

Belgium - England

5,71

France - Italy

5,20

Germany - Netherlands

4,53

Netherlands - Spain

4,49

Italy - Portugal

4,11

Belgium - Spain

3,98

Croatia - Portugal

3,95

Belgium - Germany

3,93

England - Netherlands

3,90

Belgium - Croatia

3,24

England - Portugal

3,21

Italy - Netherlands

3,18

Croatia - Netherlands

3,14

Belgium - Italy

3,05



Final

Total Final

France - Portugal

5,29

France - Germany

4,81

France - Spain

3,93

France - Netherlands

3,62

England - Portugal

2,73

England - Spain

2,48

England - Germany

2,28

Italy - Spain

2,26

Croatia - Spain

2,26

Belgium - France

2,22

France - Italy

2,21

England - France

2,20

Croatia - France

2,12

Belgium - Germany

2,11

Germany - Spain

1,99

Belgium - Portugal

1,97

Belgium - Spain

1,88

Germany - Netherlands

1,73

Croatia - Germany

1,67

Germany - Italy

1,64



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

2 comments:

  1. I think gambling culture has permeated sports so much that the widely held sentiment is that England is the true favorite...when I think their odds are the best because they're such a public betting side (bc the English love gambling so much)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, I saw the Opta probabilities. The only substantial difference between their predictions and mine above, is indeed the position of England. They have them with 20% as top favorite for the title, while I have them at only 9%. All other teams are within a few percentage points margin.

      I don't know what's incorporated in their model. I read 'historic results and current market information'. I think the current market must be heavily distorted, especially in England :)

      Delete