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Sunday, May 26, 2024

Qualification World Cup 2026 10.000 simulations (May 2024)

In the qualification tournaments for the World Cup 2026 Asia plays the final two matchdays for their first group stage in the upcoming June window. The 18 group winners and runners-up of the 9 groups qualify for stage 3 of Asian qualification: another group stage with 3 groups of 6 teams to start  this Autumn, playing a full 10MD-long double round robin schedule to conclude in June next year. Draw for this stage will probably be done somewhere in July with seeding based on the June 2024 ranking.


Africa continues in June their 10 MD-long group stage with match days 3 and 4, while North and Central America and the Caribbean starts with the first two match days in their only 4MD-long single round robin stage 2 group stage.


See for a description of the qualifying formats per confederation and first simulation results of CONMEBOL and AFC before the start of their qualification here and for CAF here. The first simulations for CONCACAF are combined with subsequent simulations of the AFC group stage in March 2024 here.


I've simulated the complete scheduled group stage qualification for AFC, CAF and CONCACAF.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.



AFC


In Asia stage 1 (10 play-offs) was played in October, the first two match days in the groups in stage 2 were played in November and md 3 and 4 were played in March.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Qatar

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

1,00

Kuwait

0,00

57,72

29,34

12,94

2,55

India

0,00

36,62

53,67

9,71

2,73

Afghanistan

0,00

5,66

16,99

77,35

3,72

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Japan

99,97

0,03

0,00

0,00

1,00

Syria

0,03

72,22

27,75

0,00

2,28

Korea DPR

0,00

27,75

70,53

1,72

2,74

Myanmar

0,00

0,00

1,72

98,28

3,98

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Korea Republic

99,59

0,41

0,00

0,00

1,00

China PR

0,41

61,93

37,65

0,01

2,37

Thailand

0,00

37,66

61,82

0,52

2,63

Singapore

0,00

0,00

0,53

99,47

3,99

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Oman

88,84

10,82

0,34

0,00

1,12

Kyrgyzstan

10,69

65,93

23,38

0,00

2,13

Malaysia

0,47

23,25

76,28

0,00

2,76

Chinese Taipei

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

4,00

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Iran

82,62

17,38

0,00

0,00

1,17

Uzbekistan

17,38

82,62

0,00

0,00

1,83

Turkmenistan

0,00

0,00

80,96

19,04

3,19

Hong Kong

0,00

0,00

19,04

80,96

3,81

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Iraq

99,14

0,86

0,00

0,00

1,01

Indonesia

0,86

98,49

0,65

0,00

2,00

Vietnam

0,00

0,60

90,92

8,48

3,08

Philippines

0,00

0,05

8,43

91,52

3,91

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Saudi Arabia

83,09

16,91

0,00

0,00

1,17

Jordan

16,70

63,91

19,39

0,00

2,03

Tajikistan

0,21

19,18

80,58

0,03

2,80

Pakistan

0,00

0,00

0,03

99,97

4,00

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

United Arab Emirates

94,24

5,76

0,00

0,00

1,06

Bahrain

5,76

94,21

0,03

0,00

1,94

Yemen

0,00

0,03

99,66

0,31

3,00

Nepal

0,00

0,00

0,31

99,69

4,00

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Australia

99,90

0,10

0,00

0,00

1,00

Palestine

0,10

83,71

16,19

0,00

2,16

Lebanon

0,00

16,19

78,09

5,72

2,90

Bangladesh

0,00

0,00

5,72

94,28

3,94



Probabilities to qualify for stage 3 (as number 1 or 2 from the 9 groups) plus a column indicating the difference in %-points compared to the simulations after md 2:


team

Q

diff

Iran

100,00

0,00

Japan

100,00

0,00

Australia

100,00

0,01

Iraq

100,00

0,04

Uzbekistan

100,00

0,18

Korea Republic

100,00

0,49

United Arab Emirates

100,00

0,55

Qatar

100,00

1,10

Saudi Arabia

100,00

8,29

Bahrain

99,97

1,28

Oman

99,66

12,57

Indonesia

99,35

73,84

Palestine

83,81

3,37

Jordan

80,61

19,77

Kyrgyzstan

76,62

29,56

Syria

72,25

-3,12

China PR

62,34

7,22

Kuwait

57,72

9,05

Thailand

37,66

-6,81

India

36,62

-15,14

Korea DPR

27,75

3,19

Malaysia

23,72

-42,01

Tajikistan

19,39

-28,06

Lebanon

16,19

-3,06

Afghanistan

5,66

4,99

Vietnam

0,60

-72,63

Philippines

0,05

-1,25

Yemen

0,03

-1,77

Singapore

0,00

-0,90

Bangladesh

0,00

-0,32

Hong Kong

0,00

-0,14

Chinese Taipei

0,00

-0,12

Myanmar

0,00

-0,07

Nepal

0,00

-0,06

Turkmenistan

0,00

-0,04

Pakistan

0,00

0,00



The probable pots for the stage 3 group draw (3 groups of 6 teams). The teams are ordered by their average pot, weighed with the probability to qualify for stage 3:


team

pot 1

pot 2

pot 3

pot 4

pot 5

pot 6

Japan

100,00

0

0

0

0

0

Iran

100,00

0

0

0

0

0

Korea Republic

75,74

24,26

0

0

0

0

---------------------------

Australia

24,26

75,74

0

0

0

0

Qatar

0

100,00

0

0

0

0

Saudi Arabia

0

86,27

13,73

0

0

0

---------------------------

Iraq

0

13,73

86,27

0

0

0

Uzbekistan

0

0

99,26

0,74

0

0

United Arab Emirates

0

0

87,96

12,04

0

0

---------------------------

Oman

0

0

0,03

99,57

0,06

0

Bahrain

0

0

0

97,48

2,49

0

Jordan

0

0

12,75

67,86

0

0

---------------------------

Palestine

0

0

0

1,48

81,70

0,63

Indonesia

0

0

0

0

0

99,35

Syria

0

0

0

6,83

65,42

0

---------------------------

Kyrgyzstan

0

0

0

0,03

33,63

42,96

China PR

0

0

0

13,39

48,95

0

Kuwait

0

0

0

0

0

57,72

---------------------------

Thailand

0

0

0

0,12

35,78

1,76

India

0

0

0

0

0

36,62

Korea DPR

0

0

0

0

9,75

18,00

Malaysia

0

0

0

0

0

23,72

Tajikistan

0

0

0

0,46

18,25

0,68

Lebanon

0

0

0

0

3,90

12,29

Afghanistan

0

0

0

0

0

5,66

Vietnam

0

0

0

0

0,07

0,53

Philippines

0

0

0

0

0

0,05

Yemen

0

0

0

0

0

0,03

Singapore

0

0

0

0

0

0

Bangladesh

0

0

0

0

0

0

Hong Kong

0

0

0

0

0

0

Chinese Taipei

0

0

0

0

0

0

Myanmar

0

0

0

0

0

0

Nepal

0

0

0

0

0

0

Turkmenistan

0

0

0

0

0

0

Pakistan

0

0

0

0

0

0



CAF


In Africa the first two match days in the group stage were played in November. They didn't play in March. Still I include new simulations because there is a possibility that Equatorial Guinea in group H will see their two November-wins reversed to 3:0 losses because they fielded an ineligible player in those matches. 
This will probably only benefit Tunisia to even easier qualify for the World Cup as group winner.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Egypt

79,25

15,92

4,19

0,58

0,06

0,00

1,26

Burkina Faso

15,78

55,53

22,35

5,02

1,31

0,01

2,21

Guinea-Bissau

4,38

19,79

42,79

21,54

11,44

0,06

3,16

Sierra Leone

0,38

6,45

18,57

38,52

34,78

1,30

4,05

Ethiopia

0,21

2,31

12,08

33,87

49,56

1,97

4,36

Djibouti

0,00

0,00

0,02

0,47

2,85

96,66

5,96

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Senegal

90,98

7,63

1,14

0,22

0,03

0,00

1,11

Congo DR

7,25

58,57

22,87

8,26

2,67

0,38

2,42

Togo

0,64

16,22

29,18

28,70

20,53

4,73

3,66

Mauritania

0,69

10,83

26,24

27,24

28,55

6,45

3,91

Sudan

0,44

6,39

19,03

30,83

32,63

10,68

4,21

South Sudan

0,00

0,36

1,54

4,75

15,59

77,76

5,69

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Nigeria

55,06

30,69

9,85

3,35

0,90

0,15

1,65

South Africa

37,93

41,47

13,94

4,70

1,51

0,45

1,92

Rwanda

3,90

13,19

30,99

25,01

16,97

9,94

3,68

Zimbabwe

1,30

5,73

17,50

26,23

26,03

23,21

4,40

Benin

1,27

5,98

17,56

23,57

27,82

23,80

4,42

Lesotho

0,54

2,94

10,16

17,14

26,77

42,45

4,94

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Cape Verde Islands

46,44

29,59

16,82

6,88

0,27

0,00

1,85

Cameroon

32,50

29,09

24,58

12,56

1,26

0,01

2,21

Angola

13,90

25,30

29,48

27,65

3,55

0,12

2,82

Libya

7,12

15,61

27,86

45,08

4,18

0,15

3,24

Eswatini

0,04

0,41

1,23

7,19

68,13

23,00

5,12

Mauritius

0,00

0,00

0,03

0,64

22,61

76,72

5,76

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Morocco

97,92

1,97

0,09

0,02

0,00

1,02

Zambia

1,84

61,85

25,23

9,22

1,86

2,47

Tanzania

0,17

25,62

38,14

24,28

11,79

3,22

Niger

0,04

5,25

19,58

39,09

36,04

4,06

Congo

0,03

5,31

16,96

27,39

50,31

4,23

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Cote d'Ivoire

82,96

13,36

3,07

0,50

0,11

0,00

1,21

Gabon

13,47

58,13

20,54

6,41

1,45

0,00

2,24

Kenya

2,77

16,42

37,93

23,50

19,37

0,01

3,40

Burundi

0,55

5,51

20,89

36,95

35,89

0,21

4,03

Gambia

0,25

6,58

17,57

32,61

42,65

0,34

4,12

Seychelles

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,03

0,53

99,44

5,99

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Algeria

86,88

9,25

2,73

0,96

0,18

0,00

1,18

Guinea

6,72

40,17

28,52

16,73

7,86

0,00

2,79

Mozambique

2,43

23,34

25,98

26,31

21,87

0,07

3,42

Uganda

2,66

15,90

22,52

25,36

33,40

0,16

3,71

Botswana

1,31

11,34

20,25

30,61

36,37

0,12

3,90

Somalia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,03

0,32

99,65

6,00

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Tunisia

90,87

7,27

1,62

0,19

0,05

0,00

1,11

Equatorial Guinea

3,79

38,88

37,82

14,26

4,98

0,27

2,79

Namibia

4,83

38,53

29,73

17,31

9,45

0,15

2,88

Malawi

0,35

10,69

18,66

37,36

30,51

2,43

3,94

Liberia

0,16

4,58

11,90

29,19

48,22

5,95

4,39

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

0,00

0,05

0,27

1,69

6,79

91,20

5,89

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Mali

80,91

14,47

3,84

0,69

0,08

0,01

1,25

Ghana

13,88

50,13

23,09

9,25

3,04

0,61

2,39

Comoros

3,83

20,86

36,30

24,21

11,66

3,14

3,28

Madagascar

0,92

7,48

19,65

28,74

32,66

10,55

4,16

Central African Republic

0,45

6,18

14,30

29,34

32,83

16,90

4,39

Chad

0,01

0,88

2,82

7,77

19,73

68,79

5,53



The probabilities to qualify for the play-offs as one of the 4 best group runners-up, with in square brackets the probability to qualify for the play-off, given that the team is a group runner-up. Also a column indicating the difference in %-points compared to the first simulations after md 2:


team

PO

diff

Gabon

42,76

[73,56]

8,91

Burkina Faso

38,08

[68,58]

-3,75

Congo DR

22,58

[38,55]

7,36

Ghana

22,15

[44,19]

2,11

Guinea

21,23

[52,85]

-3,07

Cape Verde Islands

20,40

[68,94]

4,29

Namibia

19,77

[51,31]

16,62

Cameroon

18,78

[64,56]

3,83

Equatorial Guinea

15,19

[39,07]

-34,64

Angola

14,92

[58,97]

2,39

South Africa

14,08

[33,95]

5,41

Egypt

13,59

[85,36]

-4,06

Guinea-Bissau

12,02

[60,74]

5,77

Cote d'Ivoire

11,98

[89,67]

-6,06

Nigeria

11,36

[37,02]

4,19

Mozambique

11,08

[47,47]

2,35

Kenya

10,03

[61,08]

3,80

Mali

9,53

[65,86]

-1,75

Libya

7,96

[50,99]

2,09

Comoros

7,55

[36,19]

2,13

Algeria

7,09

[76,65]

-1,30

Uganda

6,98

[43,90]

3,09

Tunisia

5,82

[80,06]

-20,05

Senegal

5,08

[66,58]

1,22

Botswana

4,25

[37,48]

0,40

Togo

3,50

[21,58]

-0,39

Rwanda

2,88

[21,83]

1,49

Malawi

2,77

[25,91]

-0,79

Burundi

2,65

[48,09]

-1,21

Gambia

2,38

[36,17]

-1,54

Sierra Leone

2,34

[36,28]

0,76

Mauritania

1,96

[18,10]

0,97

Madagascar

1,64

[21,93]

-0,35

Sudan

1,14

[17,84]

-0,71

Central African Republic

1,02

[16,50]

-0,01

Liberia

0,93

[20,31]

0,86

Zimbabwe

0,64

[11,17]

-0,62

Ethiopia

0,60

[25,97]

-0,09

Benin

0,46

[7,69]

0,01

Lesotho

0,30

[10,20]

0,05

Zambia

0,28

[0,45]

0,20

Tanzania

0,08

[0,31]

0,00

Chad

0,07

[7,95]

0,04

Morocco

0,06

[3,05]

0,04

Eswatini

0,04

[9,76]

0,01

South Sudan

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Congo

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Niger

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Djibouti

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Mauritius

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Seychelles

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Somalia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00



CONCACAF


The group results in stage 2 with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Honduras

77,96

16,63

4,79

0,60

0,02

1,28

Cuba

15,18

56,14

22,18

6,05

0,45

2,20

Bermuda

6,18

20,35

43,46

24,17

5,84

3,03

Antigua and Barbuda

0,66

6,36

24,45

45,68

22,85

3,84

Cayman Islands

0,02

0,52

5,12

23,50

70,84

4,65

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Costa Rica

77,17

21,00

1,70

0,12

0,01

1,25

Trinidad and Tobago

21,96

69,94

6,88

1,22

0,00

1,87

Grenada

0,63

4,99

47,13

39,77

7,48

3,48

St. Kitts and Nevis

0,23

3,98

41,76

47,07

6,96

3,57

Bahamas

0,01

0,09

2,53

11,82

85,55

4,83

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Haiti

71,70

23,32

4,06

0,77

0,15

1,34

Curacao

24,41

53,60

16,11

4,93

0,95

2,04

St. Lucia

2,36

12,35

39,61

28,99

16,69

3,45

Aruba

1,13

7,94

24,10

34,32

32,51

3,89

Barbados

0,40

2,79

16,12

30,99

49,70

4,27

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Panama

94,13

5,42

0,40

0,05

0,00

1,06

Nicaragua

3,96

45,09

31,97

14,93

4,05

2,70

Guyana

1,58

36,25

36,88

18,71

6,58

2,92

Belize

0,32

10,27

20,51

38,44

30,46

3,88

Montserrat

0,01

2,97

10,24

27,87

58,91

4,43

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Jamaica

73,56

23,59

2,48

0,35

0,02

1,30

Guatemala

24,98

61,88

12,08

1,05

0,01

1,89

Dominican Republic

1,33

12,64

63,63

22,02

0,38

3,07

Dominica

0,13

1,84

21,51

69,84

6,68

3,81

British Virgin Islands

0,00

0,05

0,30

6,74

92,91

4,93

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

El Salvador

66,03

25,43

6,87

1,62

0,05

1,44

Suriname

26,98

46,40

19,26

7,11

0,25

2,07

Puerto Rico

4,54

18,45

41,95

34,55

0,51

3,08

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

2,45

9,71

31,74

54,30

1,80

3,43

Anguilla

0,00

0,01

0,18

2,42

97,39

4,97



And the probability to qualify (as group number 1 or 2 from the 6 groups) for the next group stage 3 plus a column indicating the difference in %-points compared to the simulations before the start of the qualification (the stage 1 play-offs in March):


team

q_stage 3

diff

Panama

99,55

-0,13

Costa Rica

98,17

-0,90

Jamaica

97,15

0,49

Haiti

95,02

-2,39

Honduras

94,59

-2,53

Trinidad and Tobago

91,90

1,28

El Salvador

91,46

5,55

Guatemala

86,86

-0,79

Curacao

78,01

-4,49

Suriname

73,38

7,12

Cuba

71,32

0,05

Nicaragua

49,05

-7,53

Guyana

37,83

1,59

Bermuda

26,53

1,58

Puerto Rico

22,99

-7,52

St. Lucia

14,71

1,67

Dominican Republic

13,97

-0,60

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

12,16

-4,97

Belize

10,59

6,24

Aruba

9,07

4,44

Antigua and Barbuda

7,02

0,62

Grenada

5,62

-0,13

St. Kitts and Nevis

4,21

-0,21

Barbados

3,19

0,77

Montserrat

2,98

-0,17

Dominica

1,97

0,88

Cayman Islands

0,54

0,28

Bahamas

0,10

-0,04

British Virgin Islands

0,05

0,03

Anguilla

0,01

0,00



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

3 comments:

  1. I was under the impression that the 3-0 penalties for Equatorial Guinea were a done deal

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. FIFA ends their formal announcement of the punishments with the sentence: The present decisions remain subject to an appeal before the FIFA Appeal Committee.

      Delete
    2. Ahh ok. I'm sure it won't be overturned

      Delete