Next update: 16 November 2012.
FIFA will publish the ranking on 19 December.
The 2012 CECAFA Cup draw is scheduled for 12 November, but I've computed the possible minimum and maximum values for the 11 FIFA members involved.
The top 3 will remain unchanged, while Colombia could climb as high as 4th. Even if they lose to Brazil, they won't drop from their current 8th spot.
Friday, November 9, 2012
FIFA Ranking: November 2012 differences
You might have noticed Uganda's and Zambia's points in the official November 2012 FIFA ranking were different from the ones in my November 2012 final preview.
As Ed already noticed, FIFA changed the PSO algorithm after I've sent them an e-mail. Uganda got the full 3 points, while Zambia got 0, instead of the previous method of calculation: 1 for Uganda, 2 for Zambia.
As Ed already noticed, FIFA changed the PSO algorithm after I've sent them an e-mail. Uganda got the full 3 points, while Zambia got 0, instead of the previous method of calculation: 1 for Uganda, 2 for Zambia.
Friday, November 2, 2012
FIFA Ranking: November 2012 final preview
FIFA will publish the ranking on 7 November.
Just one match left: Vietnam - Malaysia, a friendly scheduled for tomorrow. This is how the points can change for these two teams:
Vietnam (W: 217, D: 207, L: 202, not included: 212)
Malaysia (W: 142, D: 132, L: 127, not included: 133)
In the table below I've used the minimum values.
On 9 October, the FIFA Disciplinary Committee has declared the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil™ qualifying match Sudan-Zambia of 2 June 2012 to be lost by forfeit by Sudan (0-3), but the result still appears as 2-0 win for Sudan. I wrote to FIFA - got no reply. I will use the 2 - 0 result.
Just one match left: Vietnam - Malaysia, a friendly scheduled for tomorrow. This is how the points can change for these two teams:
Vietnam (W: 217, D: 207, L: 202, not included: 212)
Malaysia (W: 142, D: 132, L: 127, not included: 133)
In the table below I've used the minimum values.
On 9 October, the FIFA Disciplinary Committee has declared the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil™ qualifying match Sudan-Zambia of 2 June 2012 to be lost by forfeit by Sudan (0-3), but the result still appears as 2-0 win for Sudan. I wrote to FIFA - got no reply. I will use the 2 - 0 result.
FIFA Ranking: Penalty shoot-out matches
Uganda came close to eliminating Zambia (the AFCON title holder) in Kampala last month. The Zambians won the first leg 1 - 0, but Geofrey Massa's goal after 25 minutes had leveled the situation over the two legs. It finally came down to penalties and the Zambians prevailed 9 - 8.
Perhaps some you expect Uganda to make quite a leap in the November FIFA ranking after defeating a team ranked 41st in a qualifier? A quick calculation for this match: 3 * 2.5 * 0.86 * (200 - 41) = 1022.55 points and a total of 428 points overall, a jump of 4 places to 86th. Good news for Bobby Williamson and the Cranes. Well, not quite.
Perhaps some you expect Uganda to make quite a leap in the November FIFA ranking after defeating a team ranked 41st in a qualifier? A quick calculation for this match: 3 * 2.5 * 0.86 * (200 - 41) = 1022.55 points and a total of 428 points overall, a jump of 4 places to 86th. Good news for Bobby Williamson and the Cranes. Well, not quite.
FIFA Ranking: Rules for friendly matches
On 25 October 2012, FIFA sent a circular letter (#1324 - FIFA-Coca-Cola Ranking) to all its members.
Following an analysis of the legal framework, as well as the implementation of the FIFA Regulations Governing International Matches, FIFA would like to clarify the criteria for a match to be included in the list of matches used to calculate the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.
Following an analysis of the legal framework, as well as the implementation of the FIFA Regulations Governing International Matches, FIFA would like to clarify the criteria for a match to be included in the list of matches used to calculate the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.
Friday, October 19, 2012
FIFA Ranking: November 2012 preview (II)
Next update: 2 November 2012.
11 matches left before 3 November, the deadline I think FIFA will use. A couple of 2013 Gold Cup qualifiers in the Caribbean and a couple of friendlies in Vietnam.The results of these matches will not affect the top 90.
On 9 October, the FIFA Disciplinary Committee has declared the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil™ qualifying match Sudan-Zambia of 2 June 2012 to be lost by forfeit by Sudan (0-3), but the result still appears as 2-0 win for Sudan. However, for my calculations I have used the 0-3 result.
11 matches left before 3 November, the deadline I think FIFA will use. A couple of 2013 Gold Cup qualifiers in the Caribbean and a couple of friendlies in Vietnam.The results of these matches will not affect the top 90.
On 9 October, the FIFA Disciplinary Committee has declared the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil™ qualifying match Sudan-Zambia of 2 June 2012 to be lost by forfeit by Sudan (0-3), but the result still appears as 2-0 win for Sudan. However, for my calculations I have used the 0-3 result.
EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (19 October 2012)
Next update: November 2012.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
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