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Monday, June 30, 2008

EURO 2008 impact on the NT coefficient

Column order

Country - Coefficient after EURO 2008 - Coefficient before EURO 2008 - Difference

Spain          39172 33922 5250
Germany 39121 35769 3352
Italy 36695 36876 -181
Croatia 35927 33989 1938
Netherlands 35741 33672 2069
Portugal 33765 32789 976
Czech Republic 33751 34607 -856
France 32751 34218 -1467
Russia 32543 30182 2361
Romania 32441 33724 -1283
Turkey 32311 30367 1944
Sweden 32225 32681 -456
Greece 31140 33557 -2417
Poland 30199 31211 -1012
Switzerland 29657 29651 6
Austria 24667 25152 -485

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

FIFA Ranking: Probable top 50 after EURO 2008

Point totals for teams in blue should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Current rank (June 29th, 2008)
Team
Current points (June 29th, 2008)
+/- Ranking (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)
+/- Points (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)

1 Spain 1557 3 254
2 Italy 1404 1 -20
3 Germany
1364 2
90
4 Brazil 1344 -2 -169
5 Netherlands 1299 5 188
6 Argentina 1298 -5 -261
7 Croatia 1282 8 265
8 Czech Republic 1146 -2 -100
9 Portugal 1104 2 10
10 France 1053 -3 -90
11 Russia 1023 13 177
12 Romania 1021 0 -48
13 Cameroon 1015 0 -26
14 Turkey 1009 6 132
15 England 1003 -6 -120
16 Scotland 988 1 10
17 Bulgaria 930 1 -19
18 Greece 911 -10 -222
19 Mexico 906 -5 -114
20 Colombia 883 -1 -21
21 Ghana 879 -5 -107
22 Israel 877 0 5
23 Uruguay 870 3 53
24 Egypt 841 -1 -7
25 Paraguay 835 3 30
26 Sweden 802 4 3
27 Nigeria 801 7 92
28 Côte d'Ivoire 797 -3 -41
29 Ukraine 787 2 -4
30 USA 780 -9 -94
31 Norway 778 -4 -36
32 Poland 773 -4 -32
33 Northern Ireland 749 -1 -3
34 Japan 742 4 47
35 Serbia 740 4 46
36 Denmark 721 -3 -29
37 Morocco 689 3 -1
38 Iran 683 10 80
39 Australia 672 -4 -36
40 Guinea 671 1 -8
41 Republic of Ireland 663 1 -11
41 Senegal 663 2 -4
43 Chile 652 4 29
43 Finland 652 -7 -45
45 Switzerland 649 -1 5
46 Belgium 638 3 38
47 Mali 632 -1 2
48 Tunisia 627 2 33
49 Honduras 624 -12 -72
50 Moldova 623 1 40
50 Saudi Arabia 623 4 50

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (29 June 2008)

Update after the final.

Spain takes first place from Germany.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams. Poland (30199) and Ukraine (26943) - automatically qualified as hosts.

Rank - Rank before EURO 2008 - Country - Current coefficient
 1  6 Spain              39172
2 2 Germany 39121
3 1 Italy 36695
4 5 Croatia 35927
5 8 Netherlands 35741
6 10 Portugal 33765
7 3 Czech Republic 33751
8 4 France 32751
9 14 Russia 32543
------------------------------
10 7 Romania 32441
11 12 England 32430
12 13 Turkey 32311
13 11 Sweden 32225
14 9 Greece 31140
15 15 Switzerland 29657
16 16 Bulgaria 29196
17 17 Israel 29085
18 18 Norway 28599
------------------------------
19 19 Scotland 27951
20 20 Serbia 27884
21 21 Denmark 27669
22 22 Finland 26045
23 23 Ireland 25312
24 24 Slovakia 25312
25 25 Austria 24667
26 26 Northern Ireland 24062
27 27 Belgium 22608
------------------------------
28 28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440
29 29 Lithuania 22151
30 30 Hungary 21012
31 31 Wales 20890
32 32 Latvia 20737
33 33 Belarus 20357
34 34 Macedonia 20098
35 35 Slovenia 19868
36 36 Albania 19432
------------------------------
37 37 Cyprus 18718
38 38 Estonia 18154
39 39 Georgia 18099
40 40 Moldova 17956
41 41 Armenia 16473
42 42 Liechtenstein 15334
43 43 Iceland 15090
44 44 Kazakhstan 14483
45 45 Azerbaijan 12834
------------------------------
46 46 Malta 12728
47 47 Luxembourg 10486
48 48 Andorra 9861
49 49 Faroe Islands 8867
50 50 San Marino 7839
51 51 Montenegro 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Friday, June 27, 2008

FIFA Ranking: Regarding Moldova (a reply to Steve)

I just read this post written by Steve in May 2008.

"My first thought was, how in the world did Moldova come to be ranked 37, above nations like Nigeria, Australia, South Korea, etc.? They've beaten Kazakhstan (122), Malta (135), Bosnia (62), Hungary (57) and Latvia (72), and had a draw with Turkey (25) in the last couple of years so they're not exactly beating world powers. FIFA rankings just don't make sense to me sometimes."

Moldova also won against Bosnia and Herzegovina - ranked 25th at the time of the match. See the August 2007 ranking. That win and the ones against Hungary and Malta (all three in the EURO 2008 qualifiers) brought them more than 50% of their total points.

Nigeria had an unsuccessful ACN 2008. On top of that, they failed to play 5 matches between May 2007 - May 2008. They only played 4 matches and that's basically another loss for them as FIFA's ranking algorithm requires a minimum of 5 matches in every 12 months frame.

Australia and Korea Republic - it's basically the same thing. Both rich federations, they can afford to play friendlies against top opposition and most of the time, they lose - that's 0 points and the average goes down.

Moldova on the other hand only plays against average to weak opposition and will get the win more often than not.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

FIFA Ranking: Probable top 50 in July 2008

With only 2 matches left here's the probable top 50 of the July 2008 FIFA Rankings. Point totals for teams in blue should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Gabon - Lesotho won't affect the top 50.
Then there's Germany - Spain. Germany will take over the top spot with a non-PSO win. A Spain win will see Germany drop to 3rd place.

Current rank (June 27th, 2008)
Team
Current points (June 27th, 2008)
+/- Ranking (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)
+/- Points (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)

1 Spain 1510 3 207
2 Germany 1405 3 131
3 Italy 1404 0 -20
4 Brazil 1344 -2 -169
5 Netherlands 1299 5 188
6 Argentina 1298 -5 -261
7 Croatia 1282 8 265
8 Czech Republic 1146 -2 -100
9 Portugal 1104 2 10
10 France 1053 -3 -90
11 Russia 1023 13 177
12 Romania 1021 0 -48
13 Cameroon 1015 0 -26
14 Turkey 1009 6 132
15 England 1003 -6 -120
16 Scotland 988 1 10
17 Bulgaria 930 1 -19
18 Greece 911 -10 -222
19 Mexico 906 -5 -114
20 Colombia 883 -1 -21
21 Ghana 879 -5 -107
22 Israel 877 0 5
23 Uruguay 870 3 53
24 Egypt 841 -1 -7
25 Paraguay 835 3 30
26 Sweden 802 4 3
27 Nigeria 801 7 92
28 Côte d'Ivoire 797 -3 -41
29 Ukraine 787 2 -4
30 USA 780 -9 -94
31 Norway 778 -4 -36
32 Poland 773 -4 -32
33 Northern Ireland 749 -1 -3
34 Japan 742 4 47
35 Serbia 740 4 46
36 Denmark 721 -3 -29
37 Morocco 689 3 -1
38 Iran 683 10 80
39 Australia 672 -4 -36
40 Guinea 671 1 -8
41 Republic of Ireland 663 1 -11
41 Senegal 663 2 -4
43 Chile 652 4 29
43 Finland 652 -7 -45
45 Switzerland 649 -1 5
46 Belgium 638 3 38
47 Mali 632 -1 2
48 Tunisia 627 2 33
49 Honduras 624 -12 -72
50 Moldova 623 1 40
50 Saudi Arabia 623 4 50

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (26 June 2008)

Update after the semifinals.

Russia in the first pot, Romania drops in the second pot.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams. Poland (30199) and Ukraine (26943) - automatically qualified as hosts.

Maximum value: winning final 1 - 0.
Minimum value: losing the final 1 - 0.

In blue, teams still in the competition.

Rank - Previous Rank - Country - Current coefficient - Minimum value - Maximum value

 1  1 Germany            38776 39121 40269
2 3 Spain 37734 38024 39172
3 2 Italy 36695
4 4 Croatia 35927
5 5 Netherlands 35741
6 6 Portugal 33765
7 7 Czech Republic 33751
8 8 France 32751
9 10 Russia 32543
10 9 Romania 32441
11 11 England 32430
12 13 Turkey 32311
13 12 Sweden 32225
14 14 Greece 31140
15 15 Switzerland 29657
16 16 Bulgaria 29196
17 17 Israel 29085
18 18 Norway 28599
19 19 Scotland 27951
20 20 Serbia 27884
21 21 Denmark 27669
22 22 Finland 26045
23 23 Ireland 25312
24 24 Slovakia 25312
25 25 Austria 24667
26 26 Northern Ireland 24062
27 27 Belgium 22608
28 28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440
29 29 Lithuania 22151
30 30 Hungary 21012
31 31 Wales 20890
32 32 Latvia 20737
33 33 Belarus 20357
34 34 Macedonia 20098
35 35 Slovenia 19868
36 36 Albania 19432
37 37 Cyprus 18718
38 38 Estonia 18154
39 39 Georgia 18099
40 40 Moldova 17956
41 41 Armenia 16473
42 42 Liechtenstein 15334
43 43 Iceland 15090
44 44 Kazakhstan 14483
45 45 Azerbaijan 12834
46 46 Malta 12728
47 47 Luxembourg 10486
48 48 Andorra 9861
49 49 Faroe Islands 8867
50 50 San Marino 7839
51 51 Montenegro 0

Coefficient from the final tournament only:
 1 Spain          53402
2 Germany 49002
3 Croatia 46626
4 Netherlands 44503
5 Russia 42501
6 Turkey 40502
7 Portugal 36377
8 Italy 33626
9 Switzerland 29001
10 Sweden 28834
11 Czech Republic 28668
12 Romania 25334
13 Austria 22000
14 Poland 21834
15 France 21500
16 Greece 18334


About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

FIFA Ranking: Bulgaria vs. Paraguay

As promised, here's a quick analysis of total points for Bulgaria and Paraguay

The "Points" value is computed this way:

FIFA match points * date multiplier / total number of matches in that 12 month time frame.

Example:

Bulgaria - Romania 1 - 0

FIFA match points: 1410
Date multiplier: 1
Total number of matches: 8

Points: 1410 * 1 / 8 = 176.25

The total number of points is computed this way: sum of the average for each year * date multiplier.


Bulgaria

Last 4 years:

39 matches - 10 defeats.

Year - Average (Total FIFA match points/number of matches)
-4 274.99
-3 413.691
-2 502.728
-1 502.375


Total 932.844

Most valuable matches:

17/11/2007 Bulgaria - Romania 1 - 0

EURO 2008 qualifier

FIFA match points: 1410
Points: 176.25

21/11/2007 Slovenia - Bulgaria 0 - 2

EURO 2008 qualifier

FIFA match points: 930
Points 116.25

06/02/2008 Northern Ireland - Bulgaria 0 - 1

Friendly

FIFA match points: 504
Points 63

26/03/2008 Bulgaria - Finland 2 - 1

Friendly

FIFA match points: 495
Points 61.875

06/09/2006 Bulgaria - Slovenia 3 - 0

EURO 2008 qualifier

FIFA match points: 1065
Points 48.409

These five matches make up close to 50% of Bulgaria's July 2008 total.

Paraguay

Last 4 years:

53 matches - 19 defeats

Year - Average (Total FIFA match points/number of matches)
-4 528.419
-3 427.606
-2 430.64
-1 373.003


Total: 822.287

Most valuable matches:

15/06/2008 Paraguay - Brazil 2 - 0

FIFA World Cup qualifier

FIFA match points: 1455.3
Points: 90.957

02/07/2007 USA - Paraguay 1 - 3

Copa America

FIFA match points: 1515.24
Points: 84.18

17/10/2007 Paraguay - Uruguay 1 - 0

FIFA World Cup qualifier

FIFA match points: 1330.35
Points: 83.147

28/06/2007 Paraguay - Colombia 5 - 0

Copa America

FIFA match points: 1490.58
Points: 82.81

21/11/2007 Chile - Paraguay 0 - 3

FIFA World Cup qualifier

FIFA match points: 1139.25
Points: 71.203

These five matches make up close to 50% of Paraguay's July 2008 total.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

FIFA Ranking: 2 years, 1 year (June/July 2008)

June 2008 ranking taking into account matches played in the last 2 years.
 1 Argentina      1229
2 Italy 1157
3 Brazil 1135
4 Germany 1078
5 Spain 1036
6 Czech Republic 927
7 France 885
8 Greece 861
9 Romania 846
10 Netherlands 829
11 Ghana 821
12 Scotland 816
13 Portugal 812
14 Croatia 803
15 England 803
16 Bulgaria 785
17 Mexico 761
18 Cameroon 754
19 Israel 705
20 Russia 680


June 2008 ranking taking into account matches played in the last 12 months.
 1 Argentina      799
2 Brazil 753
3 Spain 683
4 Czech Republic 656
5 Italy 598
6 Greece 584
7 Bulgaria 560
8 Germany 550
9 Mexico 549
10 Ghana 546
11 Romania 541
12 Cameroon 536
13 Scotland 523
14 Egypt 503
15 Croatia 489
16 Norway 468
17 USA 462
18 Israel 458
19 Paraguay 451
20 England 451


July 2008 rankings (including matches played at EURO 2008 until the semifinals):

2 years
 1 Spain          1141
2 Croatia 1059
3 Italy 1028
4 Germany 1015
5 Netherlands 948
6 Russia 908
7 Brazil 897
8 Argentina 889
9 Czech Republic 860
10 Turkey 835
11 Scotland 821
12 Romania 797
13 Bulgaria 754
14 France 736
15 Greece 732
16 Portugal 727
17 Cameroon 723
18 Israel 709
19 Mexico 654
20 Ghana 645


1 year
 1 Spain          903
2 Brazil 695
3 Croatia 682
4 Netherlands 676
5 Russia 651
6 Germany 640
7 Argentina 621
8 Italy 618
9 Czech Republic 612
10 Turkey 593
11 Scotland 541
12 Portugal 531
13 Ghana 508
14 Bulgaria 502
15 Cameroon 497
16 Egypt 488
17 Colombia 481
18 Romania 476
19 Israel 468
20 Moldova 460

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

FIFA Rankings: Spain or Germany on top?

It's between Germany and Spain for the top spot in the July 2008 FIFA Ranking.

Germany can go top of the FIFA Ranking if:

a) Win against Turkey avoiding PSO

AND

(
Russia win against Spain avoiding PSO AND Germany win the final (with or without PSO)

OR

Russia win against Spain after PSO AND Germany win the final avoiding PSO

OR

Spain win against Russia (with or without PSO) AND Germany win the final avoiding PSO
)

b) Win after PSO against Turkey

AND

(
Russia win against Spain avoiding PSO

OR

Spain win against Russia after PSO
)

AND

Germany win the final avoiding PSO

This proves Robert Millward can be wrong.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Monday, June 23, 2008

FIFA Ranking: Russia into top 10

Column order:

Current rank (June 22th, 2008)
Team
Current points (June 20th, 2008)
+/- Ranking (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)
+/- Points (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)

 1 Spain          1467   3  164
2 Italy 1404 1 -20
3 Brazil 1344 -1 -169
3 Germany 1344 2 70
5 Netherlands 1299 5 188
6 Argentina 1298 -5 -261
7 Croatia 1282 8 265
8 Czech Republic 1146 -2 -100
9 Portugal 1104 2 10
10 Russia 1067 14 221
11 France 1053 -4 -90
12 Turkey 1044 8 167
13 Romania 1021 -1 -48
14 Cameroon 1015 -1 -26
15 England 1003 -6 -120
16 Scotland 988 1 10
17 Bulgaria 930 1 -19
18 Greece 911 -10 -222
19 Mexico 906 -5 -114
20 Colombia 883 -1 -21


About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (22 June 2008)

Update after the quarterfinals.

No changes in the pots. Germany back on top.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams. Poland (30199) and Ukraine (26943) - automatically qualified as hosts.

Maximum value: winning the remaining matches 1 - 0.
Minimum value: losing the next match 1 - 0.

In blue, teams still in the competition.

Rank - Previous Rank - Country - Current coefficient - Minimum value - Maximum value
 1  2 Germany            37512 37560 40269
2 1 Italy 36695 36695 36695
3 4 Spain 36492 36479 39135
4 5 Croatia 35927 35927 35927
5 3 Netherlands 35741 35741 35741
6 6 Portugal 33765 33765 33765
7 7 Czech Republic 33751 33751 33751
8 8 France 32751 32751 32751
9 9 Romania 32441 32441 32441
10 13 Russia 32439 32583 35377
11 10 England 32430 32430 32430
12 11 Sweden 32225 32225 32225
13 12 Turkey 32145 32311 35126
14 14 Greece 31140 31140 31140
15 15 Switzerland 29657 29657 29657
16 16 Bulgaria 29196 29196 29196
17 17 Israel 29085 29085 29085
18 18 Norway 28599 28599 28599
19 19 Scotland 27951 27951 27951
20 20 Serbia 27884 27884 27884
21 21 Denmark 27669 27669 27669
22 22 Finland 26045 26045 26045
23 23 Ireland 25312 25312 25312
24 24 Slovakia 25312 25312 25312
25 25 Austria 24667 24667 24667
26 26 Northern Ireland 24062 24062 24062
27 27 Belgium 22608 22608 22608
28 28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440 22440 22440
29 29 Lithuania 22151 22151 22151
30 30 Hungary 21012 21012 21012
31 31 Wales 20890 20890 20890
32 32 Latvia 20737 20737 20737
33 33 Belarus 20357 20357 20357
34 34 Macedonia 20098 20098 20098
35 35 Slovenia 19868 19868 19868
36 36 Albania 19432 19432 19432
37 37 Cyprus 18718 18718 18718
38 38 Estonia 18154 18154 18154
39 39 Georgia 18099 18099 18099
40 40 Moldova 17956 17956 17956
41 41 Armenia 16473 16473 16473
42 42 Liechtenstein 15334 15334 15334
43 43 Iceland 15090 15090 15090
44 44 Kazakhstan 14483 14483 14483
45 45 Azerbaijan 12834 12834 12834
46 46 Malta 12728 12728 12728
47 47 Luxembourg 10486 10486 10486
48 48 Andorra 9861 9861 9861
49 49 Faroe Islands 8867 8867 8867
50 50 San Marino 7839 7839 7839
51 51 Montenegro 0 0 0

Coefficient from the final tournament only:

 1 Spain          49377
2 Croatia 46626
3 Netherlands 44503
4 Germany 44127
5 Russia 44002
6 Turkey 41252
7 Portugal 36377
8 Italy 33626
9 Switzerland 29001
10 Sweden 28834
11 Czech Republic 28668
12 Romania 25334
13 Austria 22000
14 Poland 21834
15 France 21500
16 Greece 18334

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Friday, June 20, 2008

FIFA Ranking: Argentina to lose first place

After various modifications to my FIFA ranking software, this is how the ranking looks at the moment (last match included June 19th, 2008 Portugal - Germany 2 - 3). It's not 100% accurate - but for countries from the October 2007 top 20 it should be.

Column order:

Current rank (June 20th, 2008)
Team
Current points (June 20th, 2008)
+/- Ranking (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)
+/- Points (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)

1 Spain 1447 3 144
2 Italy 1406 1 -18
3 Netherlands 1345 7 234
4 Brazil 1344 -2 -169
4 Germany 1344 1 70
6 Argentina 1298 -5 -261
7 Croatia 1292 8 275
8 Czech Republic 1146 -2 -100
9 Portugal 1104 2 10
10 France 1053 -3 -90
11 Romania 1021 1 -48
12 England 1016 -3 -107
13 Turkey 1010 7 133
14 Cameroon 1003 -1 -38
15 Scotland 988 2 10
16 Russia 985 8 139
17 Greece 954 -9 -179
18 Bulgaria 930 0 -19
19 Mexico 908 -5 -112
20 Colombia 883 -1 -21

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

FIFA Rankings - June 2008 problem solved

More details about the problem: link.

USA - Denmark (played on January 20th, 2007) was added to the database in the spring 2008 (probably March?) and for the point calculations the algorithm uses the March 2008 ranking for Denmark (33), not the January 2007 ranking (23). That's why I had an one point difference between my calculations and the values published by FIFA.

The deadline for matches according to FIFA's website is the Thursday prior to the release date. However, according to FIFA's Information Services department, they try to include most of the matches up to Sunday. Depends on the external company which is calculating the FIFA Rankings.

Many thanks to the guys at FIFA's Informations Services for explaining this issues.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Thursday, June 19, 2008

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (18 June 2008)

Update after the end of the group stage.

No changes in the pots. Italy return to the top of the standings.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams. Poland (30199) and Ukraine (26943) - automatically qualified as hosts.

Maximum value: winning the remaining matches 1 - 0.
Minimum value: losing the next match 1 - 0.

In blue, teams still in the competition.

Rank - Previous Rank - Country - Current coefficient - Minimum value - Maximum value

1 2 Italy 36537 36258 40348
2 1 Germany 36525 36220 40269
3 4 Netherlands 36105 35762 39746
4 3 Spain 36039 35637 39524
5 5 Croatia 35923 35489 39322
6 7 Portugal 33912 33765 37615
7 6 Czech Republic 33751 33751 33751
8 8 France 32751 32751 32751
9 9 Romania 32441 32441 32441
------------------------------------------
10 11 England 32430 32430 32430
11 10 Sweden 32225 32225 32225
12 13 Turkey 31489 31291 35515
13 14 Russia 31321 31127 35358
14 12 Greece 31140 31140 31140
15 17 Switzerland 29657 29657 29657
16 15 Bulgaria 29196 29196 29196
17 16 Israel 29085 29085 29085
18 18 Norway 28599 28599 28599
------------------------------------------
19 19 Scotland 27951 27951 27951
20 20 Serbia 27884 27884 27884
21 21 Denmark 27669 27669 27669
22 22 Finland 26045 26045 26045
23 23 Slovakia 25312 25312 25312
24 24 Ireland 25312 25312 25312
25 25 Austria 24667 24667 24667
26 26 Northern Ireland 24062 24062 24062
27 27 Belgium 22608 22608 22608
------------------------------------------
28 28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440 22440 22440
29 29 Lithuania 22151 22151 22151
30 30 Hungary 21012 21012 21012
31 31 Wales 20890 20890 20890
32 32 Latvia 20737 20737 20737
33 33 Belarus 20357 20357 20357
34 34 Macedonia 20098 20098 20098
35 35 Slovenia 19868 19868 19868
36 36 Albania 19432 19432 19432
------------------------------------------
37 37 Cyprus 18718 18718 18718
38 38 Estonia 18154 18154 18154
39 39 Georgia 18099 18099 18099
40 40 Moldova 17956 17956 17956
41 41 Armenia 16473 16473 16473
42 42 Liechtenstein 15334 15334 15334
43 43 Iceland 15090 15090 15090
44 44 Kazakhstan 14483 14483 14483
45 45 Azerbaijan 12834 12834 12834
------------------------------------------
46 46 Malta 12728 12728 12728
47 47 Luxembourg 10486 10486 10486
48 48 Andorra 9861 9861 9861
49 49 Faroe Islands 8867 8867 8867
50 50 San Marino 7839 7839 7839
51 51 Montenegro 0 0 0


Coefficient from the final tournament only:

1 Netherlands 50336
2 Spain 49836
3 Croatia 49501
4 Portugal 39335
5 Germany 39335
6 Turkey 39002
7 Russia 39001
8 Italy 32168
9 Switzerland 29001
10 Sweden 28834
11 Czech Republic 28668
12 Romania 25334
13 Austria 22000
14 Poland 21834
15 France 21500
16 Greece 18334

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Saturday, June 14, 2008

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (14 June 2008)

Update after the second round of group matches.

Romania returns to the first pot, knocking Sweden back in the second pot.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams (Poland and Ukraine - automatically qualified as hosts).

Maximum value: winning the remaining matches 1 - 0.
Minimum value: losing the remaining matches 1 - 0.

In blue, teams still in the competition (i.e. with at least one match left to play)

Rank - Previous Rank - Country - Current coefficient - Minimum value - Maximum value

1 1 Germany 35825 35147 40269
2 2 Italy 35785 35137 40329
3 4 Spain 35450 34346 39524
4 6 Netherlands 35426 34449 39727
5 5 Croatia 35370 34197 39322
6 3 Czech Republic 34480 33751 38755
7 8 Portugal 34473 33783 38665
8 7 France 33336 32773 38162
9 10 Romania 33157 32463 37548
------------------------------------------
10 9 Sweden 32871 32247 37495
11 12 England 32430 32430 32430
12 11 Greece 31823 31140 32518
13 13 Turkey 30669 30111 35515
14 14 Russia 30472 29921 35339
15 15 Bulgaria 29196 29196 29196
16 17 Israel 29085 29085 29085
17 16 Switzerland 28655 28256 29634
18 18 Norway 28599 28599 28599
------------------------------------------
19 19 Scotland 27951 27951 27951
20 20 Serbia 27884 27884 27884
21 21 Denmark 27669 27669 27669
22 22 Finland 26045 26045 26045
23 23 Ireland 25312 25312 25312
24 24 Slovakia 25312 25312 25312
25 25 Austria 24996 24667 31468
26 26 Northern Ireland 24062 24062 24062
27 27 Belgium 22608 22608 22608
------------------------------------------
28 28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440 22440 22440
29 29 Lithuania 22151 22151 22151
30 30 Hungary 21012 21012 21012
31 31 Wales 20890 20890 20890
32 32 Latvia 20737 20737 20737
33 33 Belarus 20357 20357 20357
34 34 Macedonia 20098 20098 20098
35 35 Slovenia 19868 19868 19868
36 36 Albania 19432 19432 19432
------------------------------------------
37 37 Cyprus 18718 18718 18718
38 38 Estonia 18154 18154 18154
39 39 Georgia 18099 18099 18099
40 40 Moldova 17956 17956 17956
41 41 Armenia 16473 16473 16473
42 42 Liechtenstein 15334 15334 15334
43 43 Iceland 15090 15090 15090
44 44 Kazakhstan 14483 14483 14483
45 45 Azerbaijan 12834 12834 12834
------------------------------------------
46 46 Malta 12728 12728 12728
47 47 Luxembourg 10486 10486 10486
48 48 Andorra 9861 9861 9861
49 49 Faroe Islands 8867 8867 8867
50 50 San Marino 7839 7839 7839
51 51 Montenegro 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (10 June 2008)

Update after the first round of group matches.

Portugal and Sweden climb into the first pot at the expense of Romania and Greece. Germany replace Italy at the top of the standings.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams (Poland and Ukraine - automatically qualified as hosts).

Maximum value: winning the remaining 5 matches 1 - 0.
Minimum value: losing the remaining 2 group matches 1 - 0.

In blue, teams still in the competition.

Rank - Previous Rank - Country - Current coefficient - Minimum value - Maximum value

1 2 Germany 36607 35147 41417
2 1 Italy 35993 34670 41089
3 3 Czech Republic 35346 33773 39921
4 6 Spain 34771 33283 39524
5 5 Croatia 34733 33167 39322
6 8 Netherlands 34616 33283 39690
7 4 France 34038 32817 39347
8 10 Portugal 33687 32696 38648
9 11 Sweden 33591 32247 38643
------------------------------------------
10 7 Romania 33419 31996 38307
11 9 Greece 32611 31140 37400
12 12 England 32430 32430 32430
13 13 Turkey 29722 28734 35515
14 14 Russia 29518 28543 35339
15 16 Bulgaria 29196 29196 29196
16 15 Switzerland 29115 28256 35179
17 17 Israel 29085 29085 29085
18 18 Norway 28599 28599 28599
------------------------------------------
19 19 Scotland 27951 27951 27951
20 20 Serbia 27884 27884 27884
21 21 Denmark 27669 27669 27669
22 22 Finland 26045 26045 26045
23 23 Ireland 25312 25312 25312
24 24 Slovakia 25312 25312 25312
25 25 Austria 24748 24128 32322
26 26 Northern Ireland 24062 24062 24062
27 27 Belgium 22608 22608 22608
------------------------------------------
28 28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440 22440 22440
29 29 Lithuania 22151 22151 22151
30 30 Hungary 21012 21012 21012
31 31 Wales 20890 20890 20890
32 32 Latvia 20737 20737 20737
33 33 Belarus 20357 20357 20357
34 34 Macedonia 20098 20098 20098
35 35 Slovenia 19868 19868 19868
36 36 Albania 19432 19432 19432
------------------------------------------
37 37 Cyprus 18718 18718 18718
38 38 Estonia 18154 18154 18154
39 39 Georgia 18099 18099 18099
40 40 Moldova 17956 17956 17956
41 41 Armenia 16473 16473 16473
42 42 Liechtenstein 15334 15334 15334
43 43 Iceland 15090 15090 15090
44 44 Kazakhstan 14483 14483 14483
45 45 Azerbaijan 12834 12834 12834
------------------------------------------
46 46 Malta 12728 12728 12728
47 47 Luxembourg 10486 10486 10486
48 48 Andorra 9861 9861 9861
49 49 Faroe Islands 8867 8867 8867
50 50 San Marino 7839 7839 7839
51 51 Montenegro 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Monday, June 9, 2008

Possible mistake in the FIFA Rankings

June 20th, 2008

Problem solved: link.
______________________

Take a look at USA results in 2007 (you need to press the "Prev." button a few times). The first match of the year was a 3 - 1 friendly win against Denmark in Carson City on January 20th, 2007. It was the first competitive match for the USA after losing 2 - 1 at the hands of Ghana at the 2006 World Cup on June 22nd, 2006 in Nuremberg.
After the Denmark match, there was another friendly win (2 - 0) against Mexico in Glendale, 18 days later - February 7th, 2007.

Now, please take a look at the detailed point totals published by FIFA in October 2007 -> pdf file. Scroll to page 18 (to check the USA point totals). Between Ghana - USA 2 - 1 (played on June 22nd, 2006) and USA - Mexico 2 - 0 (played on February 7th, 2007) there is no other match.

It doesn't make much difference for the October rankings: 886.24 instead of 885.94. The rounded value is still 886.

According to an e-mail from FIFA, the USA - Denmark match became an official match in the spring of 2008, after a request from the US Soccer Federation.

Still, with this match included, my total for April 2008 for USA becomes 890, FIFA has 889. The same 1 point difference for USA appears for May 2008, then all hell broke loose when I compared the June 2008 totals. With the exception of Argentina, my totals are way different from the ones published by FIFA. I can't quite figure out why... Did they recalculate the point totals for the rankings starting from February 2007 and then used them for the June 2008 ranking?

According to this article (Argentina consolidate their lead), a total of 347 international 'A' matches have been taken into account in compiling the world ranking for this year. However, according to the "Fixtures and results" section of FIFA.com, only 337 'A' matches have been played in 2008 (up to the beginning of June). Or does this figure (347) include the 10 matches played after December 17th, 2007 when the last FIFA Rankings for 2007 were published? More to the point, according to the FIFA Ranking schedule article, the deadline for matches is the Thursday prior to the release date. With the June 2008 rankings published on June 4th, the deadline for matches should have been May 29th, thus 28 matches played on 30 and 31 May wouldn't have been included in the calculations.

Questions, questions...

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Friday, June 6, 2008

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (6 June 2008)

EURO 2008 kicks off tomorrow and we'll probably see some movement in the top two pots.

I will try to update the table after each round of matches. So, check for updates on June 11, 15, 19, 23, 27 and 30.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams (Poland and Ukraine - automatically qualified as hosts).

Maximum value: winning all 6 matches 1 - 0.
Minimum value: losing all 3 group matches 1 - 0.

In blue, teams still in the competition.

Rank - Country - Current coefficient - Maximum value - Minimum value


1 Italy 36876 42274 33515
2 Germany 35769 41398 32547
3 Czech Republic 34607 39921 31195
4 France 34218 40106 31151
5 Croatia 33989 39322 30589
6 Spain 33922 39487 30661
7 Romania 33724 39067 30329
8 Netherlands 33672 39653 30660
9 Greece 33557 38566 29963
---------------------------------------
10 Portugal 32789 38632 30402
11 Sweden 32681 38625 29647
12 England 32430 32430 32430
13 Turkey 30367 36682 27556
14 Russia 30182 36525 27388
15 Switzerland 29651 36327 27056
16 Bulgaria 29196 29196 29196
17 Israel 29085 29085 29085
18 Norway 28599 28599 28599
---------------------------------------
19 Scotland 27951 27951 27951
20 Serbia 27884 27884 27884
21 Denmark 27669 27669 27669
22 Finland 26045 26045 26045
23 Ireland 25312 25312 25312
24 Slovakia 25312 25312 25312
25 Austria 25152 33614 22744
26 Northern Ireland 24062 24062 24062
27 Belgium 22608 22608 22608
---------------------------------------
28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440 22440 22440
29 Lithuania 22151 22151 22151
30 Hungary 21012 21012 21012
31 Wales 20890 20890 20890
32 Latvia 20737 20737 20737
33 Belarus 20357 20357 20357
34 Macedonia 20098 20098 20098
35 Slovenia 19868 19868 19868
36 Albania 19432 19432 19432
---------------------------------------
37 Cyprus 18718 18718 18718
38 Estonia 18154 18154 18154
39 Georgia 18099 18099 18099
40 Moldova 17956 17956 17956
41 Armenia 16473 16473 16473
42 Liechtenstein 15334 15334 15334
43 Iceland 15090 15090 15090
44 Kazakhstan 14483 14483 14483
45 Azerbaijan 12834 12834 12834
---------------------------------------
46 Malta 12728 12728 12728
47 Luxembourg 10486 10486 10486
48 Andorra 9861 9861 9861
49 Faroe Islands 8867 8867 8867
50 San Marino 7839 7839 7839
51 Montenegro 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Universitatea Cluj porneste de la -8 puncte

Universitatea Cluj a fost penalizata cu 6 puncte de de Comisia de Disciplina a FRF dupa scandalul "Valiza". Astfel, "sepcile rosii" au doar 17 puncte in clasamentul final al sezonului 2007-2008 si vor porni in Liga a II-a cu -8 puncte.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

2010 WC: Seeding formula (June 2008 update)

Seeded teams for the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa.

Qualified teams determined using the current standings and the FIFA rankings.

Panama/Saudi Arabia replace Venezuela/Iran.

Rank - Country - Total - Performance - Ranking

1 Brazil 60.3 29.3 31.0
2 Germany 58.3 30.3 28.0
3 Italy 57.3 27.3 30.0
4 Spain 54.3 25.3 29.0
5 Argentina 53.0 21.0 32.0
6 England 49.3 26.3 23.0
7 France 49.3 23.3 26.0
--------------------------------
8 Portugal 45.3 22.3 23.0
9 Mexico 38.0 19.3 18.7
10 Netherlands 38.0 14.7 23.3
11 Czech Republic 33.0 6.0 27.0
12 Croatia 28.7 9.0 19.7
13 USA 27.3 13.7 13.7
14 Ghana 27.0 13.3 13.7
15 Greece 24.0 0.0 24.0
16 Paraguay 22.7 11.7 11.0
17 Korea Republic 21.7 15.7 6.0
18 Japan 21.0 13.3 7.7
19 Romania 20.7 0.0 20.7
20 Cameroon 20.3 3.0 17.3
21 Australia 18.7 11.3 7.3
22 Scotland 17.0 0.0 17.0
23 Cote d'Ivoire 16.7 6.0 10.7
24 Bulgaria 15.3 0.0 15.3
25 Colombia 15.0 0.0 15.0
26 Nigeria 13.3 2.7 10.7
27 Saudi Arabia 12.0 8.0 4.0
28 Egypt 11.0 0.0 11.0
29 Honduras 6.3 0.0 6.3
30 South Africa 4.0 3.0 1.0
31 Uzbekistan 3.0 0.0 3.0
32 Panama 2.0 0.0 2.0


Top 7 + South Africa seeded.

The pots:

Pot A: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot B: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Scotland
Pot C: Australia, Honduras, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, USA, Uzbekistan
Pot D: Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Paraguay
Special pot: Panama

Possible draw:

Group A: South Africa, Scotland, Korea Republic, Paraguay
Group B: France, Croatia, Saudi Arabia, Panama
Group C: Spain, Bulgaria, Honduras, Ghana
Group D: Germany, Netherlands, Japan, Egypt
Group E: Brazil, Greece, Australia, Nigeria
Group F: Italy, Portugal, Mexico, Cote d'Ivoire
Group G: England, Romania, Uzbekistan, Colombia
Group H: Argentina, Czech Republic, USA, Cameroon

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Monday, June 2, 2008

Liga a III-a 2008-2009: Componenta probabila a celor sase serii

Am incercat sa nu mut prea mult echipele dintr-o serie in alta si sa pastrez, pe cat posibil, echipele din acelasi judet in aceeasi serie. Totusi, am fost nevoit sa fac niste compromisuri:

- Am repartizat cele doua echipe din judetul Dambovita in serii diferite: Electrosid Titu in seria a III-a, iar Viitorul Pucioasa in seria a IV-a.
- Am mutat CF Braila din seria I in seria a II-a.
- Am mutat Juventus Bucuresti din seria a II-a in seria a III-a (in care a jucat in urma cu doua sezoane)
- Am mutat Minerul Mehedinti Valea Copcii din seria a V-a in seria a IV-a
- Am mutat echipele FC Cisnadie si Atletic Sibiu din seria a IV-a in seria a VI-a.

Nu e o repartizare oficiala, ci doar modul in care cred eu ca vor fi impartite echipele. In plus, am pornit de la premisa ca nicio echipa nu va alege sa isi vanda/cesioneze locul sau sau sa nu se inscrie in campionat.

Anul trecut, FRF a facut cateva schimbari fara rost (in opinia mea). Probabil istoria se va repeta si anul acesta.

Rezultatele meciurilor de baraj le-am luat din ProSport.

Seria I

Dunarea Galati
Aerostar Bacau
Politehnica Galati
Willy Bacau
Politehnica Iasi II
FC Barlad
Juventus Falticeni
CFR Pascani
Cetatea Targu Neamt
Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt II
Otelul Galati II
FCM Bacau II
Pambac Bacau
Laminorul Roman
AFC Zagon
AS Fotbal Moinesti
Ecologistul Luceafarul Mihai Eminescu
Rapid CFR Suceava

Seria a II-a

CSM Focsani
CSM Ramnicu Sarat
Steaua Bucuresti II
CS Ovidiu
Onix Ramnicu Sarat
Rocar ANEFS Bucuresti
Portul Constanta
Unirea Slobozia
CSM Medgidia
CF Braila
CS Navodari
Callatis Mangalia
Dunarea Calarasi
Viitorul Insuratei
CS Eforie
FC Panciu
Sageata Stejaru
Recolta Gheorghe Lazar

Seria a III-a

Inter Gaz Bucuresti
FC Sacele
Juventus Bucuresti
Tricolorul Breaza
Electrosid Titu
Conpet Ploiesti
Chimia Brazi
Rapid Bucuresti II
Victoria Branesti
Inter Pantelimon
Unirea Tarlungeni
Petrolul Ploiesti II
CS Filipestii de Padure
Dodu Bucuresti
CF Predeal
Kaproni Gornet
Progresul II Bucuresti
Victoria Bod

Seria a IV-a

FCM Resita
FC Caracal
Gaz Metan Craiova
Oltchim Ramnicu Valcea
Minerul Mehedinti Valea Copcii
Unirea Costesti
Rova Rosiorii de Vede
ALRO Slatina
Building Vanju Mare
FC Arges Pitesti II
CFR Craiova
Chimia Craiova
Progresul Corabia
Armata Craiova
Turris Turnu Magurele
Petrolul Videle
Prometeu Craiova
Viitorul Pucioasa

Seria a V-a

Politehnica 1921 Stiinta II Timisoara
Corvinul 2005 Hunedoara
Minerul Motru
CSM Sebes
Gloria Arad
Minerul Jilt Matasari
Fortuna Covaci
EMC Rovinari
Alto Gradimento Albina
CFR Simeria
CS Ineu
CALOR Timisoara
Nova Mama Mia Becicherecul Mic
CS Vulcan
Dacia Orastie
Jiul Rovinari
National Sebis
Progresul Gataia

Seria a VI-a

Avantul Reghin
FC Baia Mare
Somesul Satu Mare
Gloria Bistrita II
Trans-Sil Targu Mures
FC Cisnadie
Gaz Metan Targu Mures
Unirea Dej
Atletic Sibiu
Mobila Sovata
Turul Micula
Bihorul Beius
Unirea Ungheni
Olimpia Satu Mare
Sanatatea Cluj
CFR II Cluj
FC Zalau
Liberty II Oradea

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.