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Monday, March 22, 2010

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for AFC (22 March 2010)

29 March 2010: The qualifiers will start in October 2010, so the preliminary draw (for the first two rounds) will probably take place in August 2010. The first group stage (round 3) starts in June 2011 - with a possible draw taking place in April or May 2011. More info on the format.
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On July 19th, 2009 the AFC Competitions Committee decided to use the 2010 FIFA World Cup qualification format for the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil.

More details on the seeding in this post:

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for AFC

However, they changed their mind on December 7th, 2009.

AFC approves MD1 for 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifiers

Will the AFC use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams? It's possible.

Assumptions:

- AFC will again have 4.5 spots
- AFC will keep the current qualifying system
- AFC will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- AFC will choose the July 2011 ranking for seeding

The July 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between July 2007 and July 2011. We already have the "0.2" part (matches played between July 2007 and July 2008) and the "0.3" part (matches played between July 2008 and July 2009) - that's 25% of the formula. A lot can and will change before July 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving Asian teams: 2010 FIFA World Cup, 2011 Asian Cup and plenty of friendlies.

This is the July 2011 ranking (for AFC only) using matches played up to and including March 21st, 2010 and matches scheduled up to July 2010 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.5" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

Rank - Team - Total points
 1 Australia            353
2 Japan 286
3 Korea Republic 264
4 Iran 254
5 Saudi Arabia 247
6 Bahrain 242
---------------------------
7 Oman 181
8 Kuwait 176
9 China PR 175
10 Syria 173
11 Uzbekistan 170
12 United Arab Emirates 162
13 Qatar 156
14 Korea DPR 155
15 Jordan 145
16 Thailand 142
17 Iraq 137
18 Yemen 128
19 Singapore 104
20 India 89
21 Tajikistan 86
22 Turkmenistan 85
23 Vietnam 76
24 Hong Kong 74
25 Indonesia 67
26 Maldives 66
---------------------------
27 Malaysia 64
28 Myanmar 60
29 Bangladesh 56
30 Lebanon 55
31 Nepal 51
31 Sri Lanka 51
33 Kyrgyzstan 44
34 Pakistan 43
35 Philippines 34
36 Chinese Taipei 33
37 Laos 16
38 Mongolia 15
38 Cambodia 15
40 Palestine 13
41 Afghanistan 11
42 Guam 10
43 Brunei Darussalam 9
44 Macau 6
44 Bhutan 6
46 Timor-Leste 3

11 comments:

  1. when are the draws of the wc 2014 qualifiers for asia

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  2. For the 2010 WC, it took place on August 6th, 2007. So most likely it will take place in August 2011.

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  3. You mean August 2010 ? WC 2014 qualifiers start on 8. October this year.

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  4. You're right jonny, as usual. :) I will have to compute the seedings again.

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  5. Hi..Very interesting as you say you would need to re-compute the seedings but please explain why not retain these as the seedings taken into consideration are from games played in the period 2007 august - august 2009 right?

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  6. I assumed the draw will take place after June 2011 - using the June 2011 ranking and that's what you see in this post - the intermediate June 2011 FIFA ranking.
    However, since the draw will take place (probably) in August 2010, things do change.

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  7. And games taken into consideration will be from August 2006 - August 2010.

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  8. Pardon my ignorance but are seedings and rankings the same??Because I was surprised to see teams such as Tajikistan, India in the high 20's spot in your seedings since 2007 August- Present. Will that seeding table change drastically or not?

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  9. Seedings and rankings are not always the same.
    AFC might choose the FIFA ranking to seed the teams and then seedings = rankings.
    However, since the qualifiers will begin this October, AFC will probably use past performance to seed the teams. See:

    2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for AFC

    In this case, seedings won't be the same as rankings.

    Regarding Tajikistan and India - it's not really spectacular - they did have a couple of good results.

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  10. wow, 2014 FIFA World Cup qualification (AFC) will play this October. very short after 2010 World Cup final.

    Indonesia had have a new coach and hopes to play friendly against Cameroon after June World Cup.

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  11. Qualifiers now can't start until mid-2011 (that applies to everyone I think). Most likely reason is that the allocations will change (or, at least will be discussed by the new Organising Committee that will be set up in early 2011).

    ReplyDelete