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Thursday, May 20, 2021

FIFA ranking: May 2021 final preview

Next Thursday May 27th FIFA publishes the May ranking. Since the March window no matches are played. Only for coming Sunday (the last day before the deadline of the May ranking) two matches are scheduled. Both are friendlies and it's not even certain they will count for the ranking.

It beats me why FIFA decided to publish a ranking while it could be easily foreseen that only a few friendlies could be included. In the months of April and May the domestic competitions finish in Europe and there simply is no room to play NT-football.

And then the contrast with the next ranking. For the next August ranking already 338 matches are scheduled, including three continental final tournaments, a bunch of World Cup qualifiers and plenty of (preparatory) friendlies.


The probable results of both scheduled friendlies generated using elo ratings are presented below.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.


0 2021-05-23 Kuwait - Malaysia; Friendly; We (elo): 75; 1

1 2021-05-23 Ukraine - Bahrain; Friendly; We (elo): 89; 1


The points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team are presented below:

0 2021-05-23 KUW - MAS; We (FIFA): 52; W: 2,4/-2,4; D: -0,1/0,1; L: -2,6/2,6

1 2021-05-23 UKR - BHR; We (FIFA): 74; W: 1,3/-1,3; D: -1,2/1,2; L: -3,7/3,7


Staf safe and healthy everybody !

Behold all the spectacular changes:


pos May

team

pts May

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Belgium

1783,38

0

0

2

France

1757,30

0

0

3

Brazil

1742,65

0

0

4

England

1686,78

0

0

5

Portugal

1666,12

0

0

6

Spain

1648,13

0

0

7

Italy

1642,06

0

0

8

Argentina

1641,95

0

0

9

Uruguay

1639,08

0

0

10

Denmark

1631,55

0

0

11

Mexico

1629,56

0

0

12

Germany

1609,12

0

0

13

Switzerland

1606,21

0

0

14

Croatia

1605,75

0

0

15

Colombia

1600,66

0

0

16

Netherlands

1598,04

0

0

17

Wales

1570,36

0

0

18

Sweden

1569,81

0

0

19

Chile

1569,52

0

0

20

USA

1555,42

0

0

21

Poland

1549,87

0

0

22

Senegal

1542,45

0

0

23

Austria

1523,42

0

0

24

Ukraine

1517,14

0

1,29

25

Serbia

1512,90

0

0

26

Tunisia

1512,88

0

0

27

Peru

1511,88

0

0

28

Japan

1509,34

0

0

29

Turkey

1505,05

0

0

30

Venezuela

1500,71

0

0

31

Iran

1499,52

0

0

32

Nigeria

1487,16

0

0

33

Algeria

1486,69

0

0

34

Morocco

1479,32

0

0

35

Paraguay

1476,02

0

0

36

Slovakia

1475,24

0

0

37

Hungary

1468,75

0

0

38

Russia

1462,65

0

0

39

Korea Republic

1460,25

0

0

40

Czech Republic

1458,81

0

0

41

Australia

1457,49

0

0

42

Norway

1452,34

0

0

43

Romania

1449,23

0

0

44

Scotland

1441,43

0

0

45

Jamaica

1432,65

0

0

46

Egypt

1432,63

0

0

47

Republic of Ireland

1427,22

0

0

48

Northern Ireland

1425,74

0

0

49

Ghana

1425,26

0

0

50

Costa Rica

1423,40

0

0

51

Greece

1418,70

0

0

52

Iceland

1415,99

0

0

53

Ecuador

1413,01

0

0

54

Finland

1410,82

0

0

55

Cameroon

1404,87

0

0

55

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1404,87

0

0

57

Mali

1400,94

0

0

58

Qatar

1397,92

0

0

59

Cote d'Ivoire

1397,77

0

0

60

Burkina Faso

1392,90

0

0

61

Congo DR

1376,65

0

0

62

North Macedonia

1374,73

0

0

63

Slovenia

1369,88

0

0

64

Montenegro

1368,49

0

0

65

Saudi Arabia

1364,39

0

0

66

Albania

1362,09

0

0

67

Honduras

1361,21

0

0

68

Iraq

1352,82

0

0

69

El Salvador

1341,24

0

0

70

Canada

1340,56

0

0

71

Bulgaria

1339,03

0

0

72

Guinea

1331,79

0

0

73

United Arab Emirates

1330,16

0

0

73

Cape Verde Islands

1330,16

0

0

75

South Africa

1325,64

0

0

76

Curacao

1323,06

0

0

77

China PR

1322,96

0

0

78

Panama

1321,97

0

0

79

Syria

1304,12

0

0

80

Oman

1301,51

0

0

81

Bolivia

1300,11

0

0

82

Benin

1293,10

0

0

83

Haiti

1290,62

0

0

84

Uganda

1286,76

0

0

85

Israel

1283,36

0

0

86

Uzbekistan

1280,99

0

0

87

Zambia

1280,15

0

0

88

Gabon

1278,10

0

0

89

Belarus

1276,79

0

0

90

Armenia

1273,28

0

0

91

Georgia

1259,51

0

0

92

Vietnam

1258,06

0

0

93

Lebanon

1256,08

0

0

94

Congo

1255,88

0

0

95

Jordan

1251,63

0

0

96

Luxembourg

1244,86

0

0

97

Cyprus

1240,78

0

0

98

Kyrgyzstan

1240,08

0

0

99

Madagascar

1238,24

1

0

100

Bahrain

1237,60

-1

-1,29

101

Mauritania

1224,76

0

0

102

Kenya

1205,26

0

0

103

Trinidad and Tobago

1201,33

0

0

104

Palestine

1196,80

0

0

105

India

1184,36

0

0

106

Thailand

1178,07

0

0

107

Zimbabwe

1175,50

0

0

108

Guinea-Bissau

1171,19

0

0

109

Korea DPR

1169,96

0

0

110

Azerbaijan

1168,53

0

0

111

Namibia

1168,44

0

0

112

Niger

1165,91

0

0

113

Faroe Islands

1165,45

0

0

114

Sierra Leone

1162,61

0

0

115

Malawi

1162,39

0

0

116

Estonia

1161,58

0

0

117

Mozambique

1161,55

0

0

118

Central African Republic

1157,64

0

0

119

Libya

1156,26

0

0

120

Kosovo

1151,73

0

0

121

Tajikistan

1151,10

0

0

122

New Zealand

1149,43

0

0

123

Sudan

1149,14

0

0

124

Kazakhstan

1147,35

0

0

125

Philippines

1135,94

0

0

126

Angola

1135,88

0

0

127

Guatemala

1129,30

0

0

128

Antigua and Barbuda

1129,02

0

0

129

Rwanda

1123,69

0

0

130

Turkmenistan

1106,51

0

0

131

Comoros

1106,44

0

0

132

Equatorial Guinea

1105,20

0

0

133

Togo

1104,14

0

0

134

Lithuania

1102,84

0

0

135

St. Kitts and Nevis

1091,12

0

0

136

Suriname

1089,43

0

0

137

Tanzania

1088,05

0

0

138

Latvia

1081,66

0

0

139

Myanmar

1081,26

0

0

140

Ethiopia

1079,41

0

0

141

Chinese Taipei

1078,48

0

0

142

Burundi

1075,64

0

0

143

Solomon Islands

1072,78

0

0

144

Hong Kong

1072,00

0

0

145

Yemen

1070,54

0

0

146

Lesotho

1069,91

0

0

147

Nicaragua

1060,51

0

0

148

Kuwait

1056,30

0

0

149

Afghanistan

1052,24

0

0

150

Botswana

1051,82

0

0

151

Liberia

1047,29

0

0

152

Gambia

1043,45

0

0

153

Malaysia

1040,02

0

0

154

Eswatini

1039,24

0

0

155

Maldives

1038,31

0

0

156

Dominican Republic

1036,22

0

0

157

New Caledonia

1035,12

0

0

158

Andorra

1034,90

0

0

159

Singapore

1020,27

0

0

160

Grenada

1017,57

0

0

161

Tahiti

1014,27

0

0

162

Barbados

1010,95

0

0

163

Fiji

996,27

0

0

164

Vanuatu

995,62

0

0

165

Guyana

990,65

0

0

166

Papua New Guinea

990,55

0

0

167

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

989,32

0

0

168

Bermuda

987,78

0

0

169

South Sudan

984,19

0

0

170

Belize

977,95

0

0

171

Nepal

967,88

0

0

172

Mauritius

964,94

0

0

173

Indonesia

964,07

0

0

174

Cambodia

963,79

0

0

175

Malta

955,89

0

0

176

St. Lucia

953,45

0

0

177

Moldova

948,16

0

0

178

Puerto Rico

938,86

0

0

179

Chad

935,00

0

0

180

Montserrat

933,64

0

0

181

Cuba

923,03

0

0

182

Macau

922,10

0

0

183

Djibouti

918,91

0

0

184

Bangladesh

917,38

0

0

185

Laos

912,07

0

0

186

Liechtenstein

911,05

0

0

187

Bhutan

910,96

0

0

188

Dominica

904,26

0

0

189

Brunei Darussalam

903,90

0

0

190

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

903,31

0

0

191

American Samoa

900,27

0

0

192

Mongolia

896,97

0

0

193

Samoa

894,26

0

0

194

Cayman Islands

884,44

0

0

195

Gibraltar

880,16

0

0

196

Timor-Leste

879,43

0

0

197

Somalia

879,13

0

0

198

Guam

872,83

0

0

199

Pakistan

866,81

0

0

200

Seychelles

865,69

0

0

201

Bahamas

861,84

0

0

202

Tonga

861,81

0

0

203

Eritrea

855,56

0

0

204

Sri Lanka

853,07

0

0

205

Aruba

850,10

0

0

206

Turks and Caicos Islands

843,65

0

0

207

US Virgin Islands

829,13

0

0

208

British Virgin Islands

826,27

0

0

209

Anguilla

805,42

0

0

210

San Marino

804,71

0

0



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

9 comments:

  1. Will there be an AFC simulation before the forstå group stage is over? Quite a lot of change since the previous one with North Korea out, 5th placed teams not counting in 2nd ranking and centralized group stage endings

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yeah, now that it's finally clear how AFC is going to handle the withdrawal of North Korea, I think it's interesting to see how that works out for the second place candidates in each group and their chances to qualify for the third round. I will publish the latest AFC-simulations somewhere this weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hello Ed,
    Seems you made a mistake for Ukraine. They make 1-1 against Bahrain thus they loose 1,2 points and don't win 1,29 points.
    Thanks for you great job.

    ReplyDelete
  4. You have seen the date of this post ? May 20th, so before the match date of May 23rd of this match. It was an elo prediction, also indicated by the sentence "The probable results for both friendlies generated using elo ratings are etc."

    ReplyDelete
  5. Sorry my mistake. I check directly the list without checking the date you post and don't take care it was a preview and not a final list as usual you post after the date of publication. Sorry for my quick post.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Ed, I want to ask about the weighting of the matches. For this month, the international match dates for UEFA and CONMEBOL are only until 8 June, while the other confederation still have time until 15 June. So if teams from UEFA played matches after 8 June, for example Portugal vs Israel match on 9 June, what I factor will be applied for the match, 5 or 10? And if teams from different confederation meet each other, what I factor will be used? For example, Japan vs Serbia match on 11 June

    ReplyDelete
  7. I can only look at earlier examples of how FIFA handled such cases:
    1) a friendly between two AFC teams played inside the September 2020 window had an I of 10, while that window was officially opened only for UEFA
    2) a friendly between two UEFA teams played on Wednesday March 31 this year had an I of 10, while the March window was officially extended by that one day for UEFA
    3) a friendly between teams from different confederations inside an officially designated window for only one of the two confederations hasn't occurred yet.

    So I think what will happen is that:
    - POR-ISR will get an I of 10 because it is comparable to case 1
    - JPN-SRB is a case 3, but I expect it will have an I of 10 also because it is a valid window for one of the two teams.
    But of course, let's wait and see...

    ReplyDelete
  8. Ed, can you post FIFA Rankings August probable ranking?

    ReplyDelete