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Wednesday, May 5, 2021

CONCACAF qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (May 2021)

Forced by the COVID-19 pandemic CONCACAF has adjusted their initially proposed qualification format for the World Cup to the following process:

  • a group stage with 6 groups of 5 teams. Each team plays 2 home matches and 2 away matches against the other group opponents this March and June.
  • the 6 group winners play (still in June) in 3 two-legged play-offs for a place in the octogonal. The pairing of these group winners in the play-offs is fixed: winner A plays F, winner B plays E and winner C plays D.
  • a final group stage with 8 teams in a double round-robin format (octogonal) from September to March 2022. The top 5 from the July 2020 ranking (Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Honduras) is automatically qualified for this stage.
  • the top 3 of the octogonal qualifies for Qatar; number 4 goes to the interconfederational play-offs in June 2022.

This crowded schedule can only be realised because the June window contains 4 MD's and the September, October, January and March windows will contain 3 MD's each.


The Final Four of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 between Mexico, USA, Costa Rica and Honduras is now scheduled for this June.


And the final qualification stages for the Gold Cup 2021 were also postponed last year. With Qatar invited as guest, the 12 teams will now play in three 4-team paths for the 3 remaining berths in the tournament. Each path consists of two one-off semi-finals and a final. These play-off paths are to be played in the first week of July, directly prior to the Gold Cup itself. The composition of the paths and the Gold Cup groups were drawn last September already. The match schedule for the Gold Cup is still to be revealed though.


The first two match days in round 1 of their World Cup qualification were played in March.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

The first simulations before the start of the qualification can be found here.


First the round 1 qualification groups. The teams are ordered by average position in the group. 

 

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

El Salvador

85,66

12,16

1,81

0,37

0,00

Grenada

5,68

43,22

39,71

11,30

0,09

Antigua and Barbuda

8,38

38,69

27,70

25,23

0,00

Montserrat

0,28

5,91

30,55

54,64

8,62

US Virgin Islands

0,00

0,02

0,23

8,46

91,29

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Canada

93,43

6,38

0,19

0,00

0,00

Suriname

6,15

71,83

22,02

0,00

0,00

Bermuda

0,42

21,79

75,47

2,32

0,00

Cayman Islands

0,00

0,00

2,20

56,10

41,70

Aruba

0,00

0,00

0,12

41,58

58,30

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Curacao

67,46

32,41

0,13

0,00

0,00

Guatemala

32,52

64,57

2,86

0,05

0,00

Cuba

0,00

0,48

53,06

46,11

0,35

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

0,02

2,54

43,94

53,47

0,03

British Virgin Islands

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,37

99,62

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Panama

91,36

8,53

0,11

0,00

0,00

Dominican Republic

8,57

74,47

16,72

0,24

0,00

Barbados

0,07

16,09

55,79

28,04

0,01

Dominica

0,00

0,91

27,37

70,18

1,54

Anguilla

0,00

0,00

0,01

1,54

98,45

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Haiti

89,02

10,52

0,46

0,00

Nicaragua

10,64

68,99

20,37

0,00

Belize

0,34

20,49

79,17

0,00

Turks and Caicos Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Trinidad and Tobago

56,24

34,38

8,62

0,76

0,00

St. Kitts and Nevis

36,33

37,87

25,38

0,42

0,00

Guyana

7,40

25,59

51,59

15,09

0,33

Puerto Rico

0,03

2,09

13,75

69,01

15,12

Bahamas

0,00

0,07

0,66

14,72

84,55




The group winners qualify for round 2. In the last column the difference in percentage-points compared to the previous simulations:

Canada

93,43

11,13

Panama

91,36

2,16

Haiti

89,02

-0,59

El Salvador

85,66

3,79

Curacao

67,46

32,24

Trinidad and Tobago

56,24

-2,79

St. Kitts and Nevis

36,33

17,48

Guatemala

32,52

-19,23

Nicaragua

10,64

3,99

Dominican Republic

8,57

2,22

Antigua and Barbuda

8,38

0,72

Guyana

7,40

-11,41

Suriname

6,15

-4,46

Grenada

5,68

-4,57

Bermuda

0,42

-6,53

Belize

0,34

-2,05

Montserrat

0,28

0,10

Barbados

0,07

-2,63

Puerto Rico

0,03

-2,25

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

0,02

-3,03

Cuba

0,00

-9,98

Dominica

0,00

-1,75

Bahamas

0,00

-1,03

Cayman Islands

0,00

-0,10

US Virgin Islands

0,00

-0,04

Aruba

0,00

-0,04

Turks and Caicos Islands

0,00

-0,04

British Virgin Islands

0,00

0,00

Anguilla

0,00

0,00




To win a play-off and qualify for the octogonal (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for round 2). In the last column the difference in percentage-points compared to the previous simulations:

Panama

62,95

[68,90]

1,62

El Salvador

51,86

[60,54]

0,78

Canada

48,04

[51,42]

6,70

Haiti

48,01

[53,93]

-4,73

Trinidad and Tobago

28,69

[51,01]

-0,41

Curacao

21,09

[31,26]

9,02

Guatemala

13,48

[41,45]

-7,76

St. Kitts and Nevis

13,07

[35,98]

6,33

Guyana

2,52

[34,05]

-4,59

Dominican Republic

2,46

[28,70]

0,53

Nicaragua

2,40

[22,56]

0,82

Antigua and Barbuda

2,21

[26,37]

0,09

Grenada

1,62

[28,52]

-1,67

Suriname

1,46

[23,74]

-0,69

Bermuda

0,08

[19,05]

-1,31

Montserrat

0,02

[7,14]

0,00

Barbados

0,01

[14,29]

-0,70

Belize

0,01

[2,94]

-0,56

Puerto Rico

0,01

[33,33]

-0,39

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

0,01

[50,00]

-0,37

Cuba

0,00

[0,00]

-2,02

Dominica

0,00

[0,00]

-0,32

Bahamas

0,00

[0,00]

-0,14

Cayman Islands

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01

Turks and Caicos Islands

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01

US Virgin Islands

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Aruba

0,00

[0,00]

0,00



The octogonal and in column labeled WCq the probability to qualify for the World Cup. The group number 4 qualifies for the interconfederational play-off. Teams are ordered by their weighted average group position.


octogonal (stage 3)

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

WCq

Mexico

70,24

19,34

6,22

2,58

1,16

0,37

0,08

0,01

95,80

USA

18,68

36,92

19,48

11,81

6,34

3,87

2,23

0,67

75,08

Costa Rica

3,36

11,66

17,83

17,98

16,81

15,22

11,25

5,89

32,85

Honduras

2,40

9,64

16,05

17,51

17,57

15,55

13,46

7,82

28,09

Jamaica

1,25

5,84

12,52

15,56

17,70

18,88

17,13

11,12

19,61

Canada

1,81

6,20

8,86

8,99

7,92

6,99

4,82

2,45

16,87

Haiti

1,01

4,30

6,69

7,96

8,40

8,10

7,11

4,44

12,00

Panama

0,79

3,62

6,73

8,65

10,52

11,84

12,03

8,77

11,14

Guatemala

0,20

0,74

1,29

1,78

2,34

2,26

2,73

2,14

2,23

Curacao

0,03

0,43

1,27

1,88

2,41

3,74

5,89

5,44

1,73

El Salvador

0,22

1,14

2,48

4,12

6,39

8,32

12,11

17,08

3,84

Suriname

0,00

0,01

0,04

0,09

0,16

0,21

0,36

0,59

0,05

Barbados

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,00

0,00

Trinidad and Tobago

0,01

0,14

0,44

0,96

1,85

3,50

6,55

15,24

0,59

Bermuda

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,02

0,03

0,03

0,00

Nicaragua

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,05

0,04

0,17

0,61

1,53

0,00

Dominican Republic

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,06

0,19

0,62

1,59

0,00

Grenada

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,01

0,05

0,03

0,28

1,24

0,01

St. Kitts and Nevis

0,00

0,02

0,08

0,07

0,22

0,53

2,04

10,11

0,10

Guyana

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,00

0,04

0,12

0,43

1,92

0,01

Antigua and Barbuda

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,02

0,09

0,23

1,87

0,00

Belize

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,00

Montserrat

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,02

0,00

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,00

Puerto Rico

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,00

Cuba

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Dominica

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Bahamas

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Cayman Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Turks and Caicos Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00



The CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Final Four (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the final). In the last column the difference in percentage-points compared to the previous simulations:

to win semi final

Mexico

91,15

-0,74

USA

88,33

1,20

Honduras

11,67

-1,20

Costa Rica

8,85

0,74

to win final

Mexico

61,35

[67,31]

-3,24

USA

35,37

[40,04]

3,23

Costa Rica

1,88

[21,24]

0,21

Honduras

1,40

[12,00]

-0,20



The qualification for the final 3 berths in the Gold Cup 2021 (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for a path final). In the last column the difference in percentage-points compared to the previous simulations:

to win a path semi final

Trinidad and Tobago

98,43

-0,33

Haiti

97,31

0,23

Guadeloupe

95,30

0,78

Guatemala

93,88

0,83

Bermuda

89,66

-0,30

Cuba

74,79

-2,43

French Guyana

25,21

2,43

Barbados

10,34

0,30

Guyana

6,12

-0,83

Bahamas

4,70

-0,78

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

2,69

-0,23

Montserrat

1,57

0,33

to win a path final

Haiti

91,51

[94,04]

1,00

Guatemala

88,19

[93,94]

0,70

Trinidad and Tobago

81,72

[83,02]

0,94

Cuba

13,19

[17,64]

-1,43

Guadeloupe

6,90

[7,24]

0,29

Bermuda

6,46

[7,20]

-0,74

Guyana

4,86

[79,41]

-0,96

French Guyana

4,73

[18,76]

0,30

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

1,71

[63,57]

-0,28

Montserrat

0,36

[22,93]

0,19

Barbados

0,32

[3,09]

0,02

Bahamas

0,05

[1,06]

-0,03



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

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