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Saturday, May 1, 2021

UEFA qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (May 2021)

The first three match days in European qualification for the World Cup 2022 have been played last March. In this qualification there are 10 groups with the group winners qualifying directly for Qatar. The 10 group runners-up will compete with the two best UNL group winners, not qualified already, in 3 play-off paths of 4 teams for the final 3 UEFA berths. These single leg semi-final and final play-offs will be played in March 2022.


In October the UEFA Nations League 2021 Final Four will be played between the league A group winners Italy, Belgium, France and Spain.


And not to forget: this June the postponed EURO 2020 will be played, still with the same match schedule, but Dublin and Bilbao are no longer venues because of the local strict COVID measures conflicting with the requirement of UEFA to play at least with some fans in the stands. Their matches are relocated to St. Petersburg (group matches Dublin), London (round of 16 Dublin) and Seville (group matches Bilbao).


 

Here are the probabilities (in %), generated over 10.000 simulations for all these tournaments. Also all currently scheduled preparatory friendlies with UEFA teams are incorporated.

All match-results in each simulation are based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

Previous simulation results can be found here.


First the group stage of the EUROs. The teams are ordered by their average group position:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Italy

66,94

22,21

7,83

3,02

Switzerland

15,36

32,85

29,60

22,19

Wales

11,48

24,35

31,80

32,37

Turkey

6,22

20,59

30,77

42,42

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Denmark

54,12

33,39

9,70

2,79

Belgium

38,54

41,45

16,63

3,38

Russia

5,77

18,73

41,91

33,59

Finland

1,57

6,43

31,76

60,24

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Netherlands

77,96

15,60

5,17

1,27

Ukraine

12,99

45,76

29,50

11,75

Austria

7,26

27,94

44,50

20,30

North Macedonia

1,79

10,70

20,83

66,68

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

England

71,31

21,05

5,96

1,68

Croatia

13,73

28,26

29,46

28,55

Scotland

6,93

28,15

29,81

35,11

Czech Republic

8,03

22,54

34,77

34,66

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Spain

82,84

13,11

3,28

0,77

Sweden

8,86

44,70

31,76

14,68

Poland

6,78

30,57

42,97

19,68

Slovakia

1,52

11,62

21,99

64,87

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Germany

36,15

29,97

22,12

11,76

France

30,38

29,39

26,01

14,22

Portugal

26,79

27,46

27,86

17,89

Hungary

6,68

13,18

24,01

56,13


Then the focus turns to the knock-out stage with the probabilities to qualify for each round. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in January.

From the quarter finals onwards also the percentages are presented (in square brackets) to qualify for the round, given qualification for the previous knock-out round.


Round of 16

Spain

98,85

-0,18

Netherlands

98,04

-1,04

England

97,72

0,32

Italy

96,32

-0,53

Denmark

95,48

2,46

Belgium

94,65

-0,16

Germany

85,48

-1,31

France

80,96

-0,58

Ukraine

78,43

-1,18

Portugal

73,62

0,94

Sweden

73,10

4,99

Switzerland

66,63

-1,39

Poland

65,81

-1,16

Austria

64,87

-6,16

Croatia

63,91

-4,63

Wales

56,65

-3,59

Russia

53,60

-3,02

Scotland

52,50

0,47

Czech Republic

49,32

2,91

Turkey

47,46

6,72

Hungary

35,24

2,20

Slovakia

25,72

-2,73

North Macedonia

25,09

7,97

Finland

20,55

-1,32


Quarter finals

Spain

82,92

[83,88]

-1,05

Belgium

76,66

[80,99]

0,35

Italy

70,49

[73,18]

1,37

England

69,14

[70,75]

21,20

Denmark

62,47

[65,43]

8,58

Netherlands

59,07

[60,25]

-5,88

France

56,96

[70,36]

-7,88

Portugal

46,22

[62,78]

-6,31

Germany

44,38

[51,92]

-7,46

Sweden

36,46

[49,88]

6,23

Switzerland

27,88

[41,84]

-1,36

Poland

26,06

[39,60]

-0,73

Croatia

23,82

[37,27]

-3,54

Wales

20,01

[35,32]

-1,51

Ukraine

19,63

[25,03]

-1,11

Turkey

13,92

[29,33]

3,99

Czech Republic

13,54

[27,45]

0,75

Austria

11,09

[17,10]

-3,36

Hungary

9,96

[28,26]

0,12

Russia

9,51

[17,74]

-2,13

Scotland

9,06

[17,26]

-0,19

Slovakia

5,11

[19,87]

-0,65

Finland

3,46

[16,84]

-0,57

North Macedonia

2,18

[8,69]

1,14

Note the effect of a possible extra home match in London for England in the Round of 16.


Semi finals

Belgium

60,05

[78,33]

0,92

Spain

48,03

[57,92]

-0,77

France

43,75

[76,81]

-5,19

Italy

35,57

[50,46]

1,59

Denmark

33,47

[53,58]

9,56

Portugal

32,96

[71,31]

-2,82

England

29,29

[42,36]

10,12

Netherlands

28,03

[47,45]

-8,95

Germany

26,69

[60,14]

-5,56

Switzerland

11,08

[39,74]

0,90

Sweden

9,35

[25,64]

2,38

Wales

6,95

[34,73]

0,53

Croatia

6,16

[25,86]

-1,36

Poland

5,92

[22,72]

-0,19

Ukraine

5,31

[27,05]

-1,17

Turkey

4,38

[31,47]

1,79

Hungary

2,84

[28,51]

0,40

Russia

2,79

[29,34]

-0,11

Czech Republic

2,50

[18,46]

0,02

Austria

2,34

[21,10]

-1,81

Scotland

0,92

[10,15]

-0,07

Finland

0,74

[21,39]

-0,12

Slovakia

0,69

[13,50]

-0,18

North Macedonia

0,19

[8,72]

0,09



Final

Belgium

39,17

[65,23]

0,51

France

28,46

[65,05]

-3,96

Spain

27,49

[57,24]

-2,36

England

20,74

[70,81]

7,71

Portugal

18,23

[55,31]

-2,60

Italy

17,51

[49,23]

2,38

Denmark

14,44

[43,14]

6,16

Germany

9,77

[36,61]

-3,71

Netherlands

9,18

[32,75]

-4,78

Switzerland

3,33

[30,05]

0,54

Sweden

2,40

[25,67]

0,79

Wales

1,80

[25,90]

0,19

Croatia

1,70

[27,60]

-0,49

Poland

1,47

[24,83]

0,13

Ukraine

1,15

[21,66]

-0,49

Turkey

1,00

[22,83]

0,60

Hungary

0,63

[22,18]

0,08

Austria

0,51

[21,79]

-0,29

Czech Republic

0,39

[15,60]

-0,12

Russia

0,31

[11,11]

-0,17

Finland

0,12

[16,22]

-0,01

Scotland

0,11

[11,96]

-0,05

Slovakia

0,07

[10,14]

-0,07

North Macedonia

0,02

[10,53]

0,01



And the winner:

Belgium

25,60

[65,36]

0,24

France

17,14

[60,22]

-2,87

England

13,06

[62,97]

5,10

Spain

12,94

[47,07]

-1,28

Portugal

9,28

[50,91]

-1,33

Italy

7,28

[41,58]

0,91

Denmark

4,92

[34,07]

2,56

Netherlands

3,13

[34,10]

-2,34

Germany

3,08

[31,53]

-1,52

Switzerland

0,82

[24,62]

0,14

Sweden

0,59

[24,58]

0,22

Wales

0,44

[24,44]

0,09

Croatia

0,44

[25,88]

-0,17

Poland

0,34

[23,13]

0,09

Turkey

0,26

[26,00]

0,20

Ukraine

0,26

[22,61]

-0,07

Czech Republic

0,13

[33,33]

0,04

Hungary

0,11

[17,46]

0,01

Russia

0,10

[32,26]

0,07

Austria

0,04

[7,84]

-0,08

Finland

0,02

[16,67]

0,02

Scotland

0,02

[18,18]

-0,02

Slovakia

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01

North Macedonia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00



Then the chances of the 4 group winners of groups B, C, E and F to meet a group third from the other groups in the round of 16 (the row sums to 100%):

A3

B3

C3

D3

E3

F3

B1

18,59

0

0

12,28

32,85

36,28

C1

0

0

0

30,35

30,63

39,02

E1

12,28

30,84

36,06

20,82

0

0

F1

36,19

33,44

30,37

0

0

0


And presented the other way round, so the chances of the group thirds to meet one of the 4 group winners of groups B, C, E and F in the round of 16 (the row sums to 100%):

B1

C1

E1

F1

A3

27,72

0

18,31

53,97

B3

0

0

47,98

52,02

C3

0

0

54,28

45,72

D3

19,35

47,83

32,81

0

E3

51,75

48,25

0

0

F3

48,18

51,82

0

0


Then the UEFA Nations League Final Four, played in October in Italy. In the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in January:

to win a semi-final

Italy

70,01

6,48

Belgium

55,65

0,41

France

44,35

-0,41

Spain

29,99

-6,48

to win the UNL

Italy

38,44

5,77

Belgium

28,95

-0,55

France

20,47

-2,28

Spain

12,14

-2,94


Then qualification for the World Cup. First the group stage. The teams are ordered by their average group position:

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Portugal

86,69

13,03

0,27

0,01

0,00

Serbia

13,23

83,48

3,00

0,29

0,00

Republic of Ireland

0,06

1,62

47,34

35,08

15,90

Luxembourg

0,02

1,73

36,86

40,36

21,03

Azerbaijan

0,00

0,14

12,53

24,26

63,07

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Spain

68,73

29,44

1,76

0,07

0,00

Sweden

29,99

59,11

9,78

1,10

0,02

Greece

1,24

9,76

52,67

26,17

10,16

Georgia

0,01

1,05

21,56

44,78

32,60

Kosovo

0,03

0,64

14,23

27,88

57,22

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Italy

74,97

24,97

0,06

0,00

0,00

Switzerland

24,96

71,84

3,03

0,16

0,01

Northern Ireland

0,07

2,80

50,17

33,27

13,69

Bulgaria

0,00

0,19

33,75

44,29

21,77

Lithuania

0,00

0,20

12,99

22,28

64,53

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

France

94,43

4,92

0,63

0,02

0,00

Ukraine

2,94

50,37

28,46

16,51

1,72

Finland

2,33

27,29

38,32

27,62

4,44

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,30

16,73

29,34

44,44

9,19

Kazakhstan

0,00

0,69

3,25

11,41

84,65

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Belgium

88,00

10,94

1,05

0,01

0,00

Wales

10,32

55,17

30,73

3,62

0,16

Czech Republic

1,63

31,91

58,57

7,67

0,22

Belarus

0,05

1,97

9,35

78,40

10,23

Estonia

0,00

0,01

0,30

10,30

89,39

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Denmark

96,67

2,83

0,48

0,02

0,00

0,00

Austria

1,96

55,08

27,96

14,68

0,32

0,00

Scotland

1,24

28,79

45,76

23,53

0,64

0,04

Israel

0,13

13,26

25,34

57,75

3,35

0,17

Faroe Islands

0,00

0,04

0,40

3,48

71,05

25,03

Moldova

0,00

0,00

0,06

0,54

24,64

74,76

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Netherlands

57,27

28,89

12,47

1,36

0,01

0,00

Turkey

33,59

47,39

16,72

2,27

0,03

0,00

Norway

8,95

22,20

62,59

6,05

0,21

0,00

Montenegro

0,19

1,51

8,01

85,27

5,00

0,02

Latvia

0,00

0,01

0,21

4,93

80,43

14,42

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,12

14,32

85,56

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Croatia

52,68

27,59

13,73

5,09

0,89

0,02

Russia

35,85

37,08

18,56

6,74

1,73

0,04

Slovakia

7,50

17,76

30,87

33,86

9,55

0,46

Slovenia

3,82

16,37

32,65

36,36

9,99

0,81

Cyprus

0,15

1,17

3,94

16,03

64,21

14,50

Malta

0,00

0,03

0,25

1,92

13,63

84,17

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

England

85,37

11,52

3,06

0,05

0,00

0,00

Poland

7,58

50,27

34,05

8,09

0,01

0,00

Hungary

6,86

32,32

46,72

14,10

0,00

0,00

Albania

0,19

5,89

16,17

77,72

0,03

0,00

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,04

82,48

17,48

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

17,48

82,52

group J

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Germany

81,78

13,64

3,46

0,93

0,19

0,00

Armenia

7,40

27,17

27,46

25,93

12,04

0,00

North Macedonia

7,27

31,28

21,89

22,03

17,51

0,02

Romania

1,71

15,28

27,71

27,60

27,62

0,08

Iceland

1,84

12,63

19,48

23,50

42,49

0,06

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,15

99,84




Then the play-offs. Teams can qualify for the play-offs as group runner-up (column 'nr2') or as one of the two best UNL group winners not already qualified (column 'via UNL'). In column 'PO' you see the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. 
The 6 best runners-up are seeded in the draw for the 6 semi-finals in the 3 paths. In columns 'seeded' and 'unseeded' you will find the respective probabilities and finally in column '%seeded' the chance to be seeded, given the team participates in the play-offs.

team

PO

nr2

via UNL

seeded

unseeded

%seeded

Austria

97,60

55,08

42,52

48,68

48,92

49,88

Czech Republic

96,89

31,91

64,98

1,67

95,22

1,72

Wales

89,68

55,17

34,51

14,42

75,26

16,08

Serbia

83,48

83,48

0

30,84

52,64

36,94

Switzerland

71,84

71,84

0

38,11

33,73

53,05

Hungary

65,79

32,32

33,47

31,81

33,98

48,35

Sweden

59,11

59,11

0

13,48

45,63

22,80

Ukraine

50,37

50,37

0

8,17

42,20

16,22

Poland

50,27

50,27

0

49,79

0,48

99,05

Turkey

47,39

47,39

0

47,09

0,30

99,37

Russia

37,08

37,08

0

31,03

6,05

83,68

Slovenia

33,45

16,37

17,08

12,73

20,72

38,06

North Macedonia

31,28

31,28

0

26,32

4,96

84,14

Spain

31,27

29,44

1,83

9,95

21,32

31,82

Netherlands

28,89

28,89

0

28,52

0,37

98,72

Scotland

28,79

28,79

0

23,73

5,06

82,42

Croatia

27,59

27,59

0

23,93

3,66

86,73

Finland

27,29

27,29

0

0,79

26,50

2,89

Armenia

27,17

27,17

0

22,61

4,56

83,22

Italy

24,99

24,97

0,02

16,75

8,24

67,03

Norway

22,20

22,20

0

21,74

0,46

97,93

Slovakia

17,76

17,76

0

17,00

0,76

95,72

Bosnia-Herzegovina

16,73

16,73

0

0,10

16,63

0,60

Romania

15,28

15,28

0

11,68

3,60

76,44

Germany

13,64

13,64

0

13,02

0,62

95,45

Israel

13,26

13,26

0

9,67

3,59

72,93

Portugal

13,03

13,03

0

7,25

5,78

55,64

Iceland

12,63

12,63

0

8,96

3,67

70,94

Belgium

12,00

10,94

1,06

5,84

6,16

48,67

England

11,52

11,52

0

11,52

0,00

100,00

Greece

9,76

9,76

0

1,52

8,24

15,57

Albania

6,02

5,89

0,13

5,50

0,52

91,36

Montenegro

5,68

1,51

4,17

1,37

4,31

24,12

France

5,15

4,92

0,23

0,38

4,77

7,38

Denmark

2,83

2,83

0

2,82

0,01

99,65

Northern Ireland

2,80

2,80

0

0,29

2,51

10,36

Belarus

1,97

1,97

0

0,04

1,93

2,03

Luxembourg

1,73

1,73

0

0,05

1,68

2,89

Republic of Ireland

1,62

1,62

0

0,13

1,49

8,02

Cyprus

1,17

1,17

0

0,64

0,53

54,70

Georgia

1,05

1,05

0

0

1,05

0

Kazakhstan

0,69

0,69

0

0

0,69

0

Kosovo

0,64

0,64

0

0,01

0,63

1,56

Lithuania

0,20

0,20

0

0

0,20

0

Bulgaria

0,19

0,19

0

0

0,19

0

Azerbaijan

0,14

0,14

0

0

0,14

0

Faroe Islands

0,04

0,04

0

0,03

0,01

75,00

Malta

0,03

0,03

0

0,02

0,01

66,67

Latvia

0,01

0,01

0

0

0,01

0

Estonia

0,01

0,01

0

0

0,01

0

Moldova

0

0

0

0

0

0

Gibraltar

0

0

0

0

0

0

Andorra

0

0

0

0

0

0

San Marino

0

0

0

0

0

0

Liechtenstein

0

0

0

0

0

0



The probability to win a play-off semi-final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for the play-offs. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in January.

Austria

44,59

[45,69]

5,75

Switzerland

44,39

[61,79]

11,84

Poland

38,87

[77,32]

7,32

Serbia

37,06

[44,39]

12,10

Wales

37,02

[41,28]

1,63

Turkey

35,14

[74,15]

8,45

Hungary

29,83

[45,34]

1,17

Sweden

25,76

[43,58]

-1,77

Netherlands

24,98

[86,47]

10,24

Czech Republic

24,59

[25,38]

-0,89

Ukraine

22,69

[45,05]

-2,07

Spain

21,72

[69,46]

11,19

Russia

21,19

[57,15]

-1,64

Italy

19,57

[78,31]

0,65

Croatia

18,90

[68,50]

-0,57

Norway

15,95

[71,85]

-12,81

Scotland

15,49

[53,80]

2,74

North Macedonia

12,85

[41,08]

6,60

Germany

10,62

[77,86]

1,43

Slovakia

10,00

[56,31]

-2,55

England

9,99

[86,72]

-10,32

Belgium

9,80

[81,67]

-0,79

Portugal

9,47

[72,68]

-0,60

Armenia

9,44

[34,74]

5,99

Slovenia

8,82

[26,37]

-1,73

Romania

7,30

[47,77]

-11,82

Finland

6,88

[25,21]

0,34

Israel

5,36

[40,42]

-0,06

Iceland

5,24

[41,49]

-7,66

France

3,42

[66,41]

-6,32

Bosnia-Herzegovina

2,94

[17,57]

0,81

Albania

2,63

[43,69]

0,17

Greece

2,57

[26,33]

-0,60

Denmark

2,38

[84,10]

-16,36

Montenegro

1,02

[17,96]

-1,35

Northern Ireland

0,56

[20,00]

-1,06

Republic of Ireland

0,27

[16,67]

-5,89

Belarus

0,24

[12,18]

-0,05

Cyprus

0,19

[16,24]

0,08

Georgia

0,09

[8,57]

-0,46

Luxembourg

0,06

[3,47]

-0,01

Kosovo

0,04

[6,25]

-0,49

Kazakhstan

0,04

[5,80]

0,02

Bulgaria

0,02

[10,53]

-0,52

Azerbaijan

0,01

[7,14]

-0,09

Lithuania

0,01

[5,00]

-0,01

Latvia

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01

Estonia

0,00

[0,00]

-0,02



The probability to win a play-off final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a finalAlso in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in January.

Switzerland

26,55

[59,81]

7,50

Wales

20,84

[56,29]

1,11

Poland

19,75

[50,81]

4,05

Austria

18,74

[42,03]

1,20

Serbia

17,53

[47,30]

5,14

Turkey

16,52

[47,01]

4,50

Netherlands

16,47

[65,93]

6,87

Spain

15,83

[72,88]

8,21

Italy

14,15

[72,30]

0,58

Sweden

13,98

[54,27]

-0,70

Hungary

12,91

[43,28]

0,23

Ukraine

12,43

[54,78]

-1,69

Czech Republic

11,36

[46,20]

-0,32

Croatia

9,04

[47,83]

-0,91

Russia

8,27

[39,03]

-1,23

Belgium

7,52

[76,73]

-1,03

Norway

6,78

[42,51]

-5,85

Portugal

6,57

[69,38]

-0,61

England

6,34

[63,46]

-6,56

Germany

6,29

[59,23]

0,98

Scotland

5,54

[35,77]

0,95

Slovakia

3,41

[34,10]

-0,75

North Macedonia

3,22

[25,06]

1,49

Finland

2,79

[40,55]

-0,10

Slovenia

2,64

[29,93]

-0,34

France

2,35

[68,71]

-5,02

Armenia

2,27

[24,05]

1,56

Romania

2,23

[30,55]

-4,20

Iceland

1,57

[29,96]

-2,16

Israel

1,50

[27,99]

-0,06

Denmark

1,37

[57,56]

-9,33

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1,09

[37,07]

0,27

Greece

0,86

[33,46]

-0,30

Albania

0,69

[26,24]

0,02

Montenegro

0,20

[19,61]

-0,38

Northern Ireland

0,18

[32,14]

-0,38

Republic of Ireland

0,10

[37,04]

-2,23

Belarus

0,06

[25,00]

-0,04

Georgia

0,03

[33,33]

-0,13

Cyprus

0,02

[10,53]

0,00

Lithuania

0,01

[100,00]

0,01

Bulgaria

0,00

[0,00]

-0,22

Azerbaijan

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01

Luxembourg

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Kosovo

0,00

[0,00]

-0,12

Estonia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Kazakhstan

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Latvia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00



Finally the probability to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar ('Qtot'), composed of the probabilities to become a group winner ('nr1') and to win a play-off ('PO'). Also in the last column the difference in Qtot in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in January.

team

nr1

PO

Qtot

Denmark

96,67

1,37

98,04

18,48

France

94,43

2,35

96,78

4,35

Belgium

88,00

7,52

95,52

0,59

Portugal

86,69

6,57

93,26

2,17

England

85,37

6,34

91,71

12,86

Italy

74,97

14,15

89,12

4,05

Germany

81,78

6,29

88,07

-2,42

Spain

68,73

15,83

84,56

-8,01

Netherlands

57,27

16,47

73,74

-12,93

Croatia

52,68

9,04

61,72

-5,45

Switzerland

24,96

26,55

51,51

5,26

Turkey

33,59

16,52

50,11

27,30

Russia

35,85

8,27

44,12

9,87

Sweden

29,99

13,98

43,97

15,74

Wales

10,32

20,84

31,16

2,46

Serbia

13,23

17,53

30,76

4,98

Poland

7,58

19,75

27,33

-9,10

Austria

1,96

18,74

20,70

-18,62

Hungary

6,86

12,91

19,77

-5,09

Norway

8,95

6,78

15,73

-8,53

Ukraine

2,94

12,43

15,37

-10,15

Czech Republic

1,63

11,36

12,99

-3,24

Slovakia

7,50

3,41

10,91

-4,25

North Macedonia

7,27

3,22

10,49

6,82

Armenia

7,40

2,27

9,67

7,97

Scotland

1,24

5,54

6,78

-4,46

Slovenia

3,82

2,64

6,46

-3,48

Finland

2,33

2,79

5,12

-0,46

Romania

1,71

2,23

3,94

-9,75

Iceland

1,84

1,57

3,41

-4,95

Greece

1,24

0,86

2,10

-0,33

Israel

0,13

1,50

1,63

-2,63

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,30

1,09

1,39

-0,28

Albania

0,19

0,69

0,88

-0,93

Montenegro

0,19

0,20

0,39

-0,70

Northern Ireland

0,07

0,18

0,25

-1,23

Cyprus

0,15

0,02

0,17

0,08

Republic of Ireland

0,06

0,10

0,16

-4,85

Belarus

0,05

0,06

0,11

-0,09

Georgia

0,01

0,03

0,04

-0,24

Kosovo

0,03

0,00

0,03

-0,20

Luxembourg

0,02

0,00

0,02

0,02

Lithuania

0,00

0,01

0,01

-0,04

Bulgaria

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,55

Azerbaijan

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,03

Faroe Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,01

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Estonia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Kazakhstan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Latvia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Malta

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Moldova

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00


Turkey, Denmark and Sweden improved their qualification chances the most. England also improved significantly but that's mostly due to a better performance in the EURO, due to the possibility of an extra  knock-out match in Wembley.
Austria, the Netherlands and Ukraine had a bad start, compared to the expectations in  January.

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

7 comments:

  1. Interesting how the algorithm favours Belgium to win Euro 2020, but not their group.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, home advantage for both Denmark and Russia weighs Belgium down in the hunt for first place in the group, but in the end it doesn't seem to matter much.
      They are top favourite for their first major title and I truly hope they can finally confirm that.

      Delete
  2. Almost nothing's happening for the May ranking so there will be only a final preview in about two weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Sierra leone vs Liberia 0:2?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. mick, I need a little bit more context for this question to be able to give a proper answer.

      Delete