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Saturday, July 31, 2021

FIFA ranking: August 2021 final preview

FIFA will publish the August ranking on Thursday August 12th. This final preview contains 350 matches, out of 369 matches played since May 24th. 

Only the Gold Cup final between USA and Mexico to be played yet for this ranking.

Points for both teams will be:

USA

MEX

win USA

1647,76

(10th)

1658,29

(9th)

PSO-win USA

1637,76

(11th)

1658,29

(9th)

PSO-win MEX

1627,76

(13th)

1667,07

(8th)

win MEX

1626,54

(13th)

1677,07

(8th)

Elo predicts a PSO-win for the US of A tomorrow.


Qatar performed better than expected as invitee in the Gold Cup and are in general on the rise. So no surprise to see they record a new highest spot in the FIFA ranking:

Qatar (42 - 51 in August 1993)


One team drops to their lowest rank again:

Anguilla (210 in November 2019)


Best movers:

16 - Qatar
11 - Canada
9 - USA, Czech Republic, Estonia


Worst movers:

-17 - Thailand
-11 - Chinese Taipei
-10 - Turkey, Venezuela, North Macedonia


Best movers in the top 50:

16 - Qatar
9 - USA, Czech Republic


Worst movers in the top 50:

-10 - Turkey, Venezuela
-6 - Poland

Stay safe and healthy everybody !


pos Aug.

team

pts Aug.

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Belgium

1822,37

0

38,99

2

Brazil

1797,67

1

55,02

3

France

1761,80

-1

4,50

4

England

1752,83

0

66,05

5

Italy

1744,67

2

102,61

6

Argentina

1714,43

2

72,48

7

Spain

1680,43

-1

32,30

8

Portugal

1662,37

-3

-3,75

9

Mexico

1658,29

2

28,73

10

Denmark

1642,28

0

10,73

11

Netherlands

1637,48

5

39,44

12

Uruguay

1634,63

-3

-4,45

13

USA

1626,54

7

71,12

14

Switzerland

1621,37

-1

15,16

15

Colombia

1617,67

0

17,01

16

Germany

1613,32

-4

4,20

17

Sweden

1606,79

1

36,98

18

Croatia

1594,36

-4

-11,39

19

Wales

1567,29

-2

-3,07

20

Chile

1557,81

-1

-11,71

21

Senegal

1545,36

1

2,91

22

Peru

1543,16

5

31,28

23

Austria

1535,12

0

11,70

24

Japan

1529,45

4

20,11

25

Ukraine

1522,70

-1

8,06

26

Iran

1522,04

5

22,52

27

Poland

1516,27

-6

-33,60

28

Tunisia

1515,30

-2

2,42

29

Serbia

1507,19

-4

-5,71

30

Algeria

1499,51

3

12,82

31

Czech Republic

1492,65

9

33,84

32

Morocco

1487,89

2

8,57

33

Paraguay

1483,49

2

7,47

34

Nigeria

1478,91

-2

-8,25

35

Australia

1477,21

6

19,72

36

Korea Republic

1474,96

3

14,71

37

Hungary

1474,39

0

5,64

38

Slovakia

1467,39

-2

-7,85

39

Turkey

1463,91

-10

-41,14

40

Venezuela

1463,30

-10

-37,41

41

Russia

1462,24

-3

-0,41

42

Qatar

1455,27

16

57,35

43

Norway

1450,12

-1

-2,22

44

Costa Rica

1449,79

6

26,39

45

Romania

1439,70

-2

-9,53

46

Egypt

1432,63

0

0,00

47

Republic of Ireland

1429,44

0

2,22

48

Greece

1427,04

3

8,34

49

Scotland

1424,77

-5

-16,66

50

Jamaica

1423,06

-5

-9,59

51

Northern Ireland

1422,29

-3

-3,45

52

Ghana

1420,61

-3

-4,65

53

Iceland

1418,48

-1

2,49

54

Cameroon

1411,33

1

6,46

55

Ecuador

1405,26

-2

-7,75

56

Finland

1403,96

-2

-6,86

57

Cote d'Ivoire

1402,90

2

5,13

58

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1401,57

-3

-3,30

59

Canada

1399,35

11

58,79

60

Mali

1392,64

-3

-8,30

61

Saudi Arabia

1386,03

4

21,64

62

Burkina Faso

1383,86

-2

-9,04

63

Honduras

1377,79

4

16,58

64

El Salvador

1375,43

5

34,19

65

Congo DR

1373,16

-4

-3,49

66

Slovenia

1371,25

-3

1,37

67

Montenegro

1363,03

-3

-5,46

68

United Arab Emirates

1362,23

5

32,07

69

Albania

1359,83

-3

-2,26

70

Iraq

1354,51

-2

1,69

71

China PR

1352,68

6

29,72

72

North Macedonia

1342,92

-10

-31,81

73

South Africa

1337,74

2

12,10

74

Panama

1334,85

4

12,88

75

Bulgaria

1334,83

-4

-4,20

76

Guinea

1333,15

-4

1,36

77

Cape Verde Islands

1327,11

-4

-3,05

78

Curacao

1310,40

-2

-12,66

79

Oman

1306,84

1

5,33

80

Syria

1302,75

-1

-1,37

81

Israel

1287,26

4

3,90

82

Bolivia

1285,94

-1

-14,17

83

Uzbekistan

1284,42

3

3,43

84

Uganda

1282,14

0

-4,62

85

Gabon

1278,10

3

0,00

86

Benin

1277,39

-4

-15,71

87

Armenia

1273,67

3

0,39

88

Belarus

1270,75

1

-6,04

89

Zambia

1270,15

-2

-10,00

90

Haiti

1268,38

-7

-22,24

91

Georgia

1264,06

0

4,55

92

Vietnam

1260,81

0

2,75

93

Congo

1259,97

1

4,09

94

Bahrain

1251,29

4

11,19

95

Jordan

1243,97

0

-7,66

96

Luxembourg

1238,59

0

-6,27

97

Madagascar

1238,24

3

0,00

98

Lebanon

1237,98

-5

-18,10

99

Cyprus

1235,30

-2

-5,48

100

Mauritania

1227,14

1

2,38

101

Kyrgyzstan

1223,40

-2

-16,68

102

Palestine

1216,25

2

19,45

103

Trinidad and Tobago

1207,94

0

6,61

104

Kenya

1205,26

-2

0,00

105

India

1180,25

0

-4,11

106

Sierra Leone

1178,17

8

15,56

107

Estonia

1177,36

9

15,78

108

Namibia

1172,35

3

3,91

109

Zimbabwe

1171,86

-2

-3,64

110

Guinea-Bissau

1171,19

-2

0,00

111

Korea DPR

1169,96

-2

0,00

112

Azerbaijan

1166,44

-2

-2,09

113

Faroe Islands

1165,43

0

-0,02

114

Mozambique

1163,44

3

1,89

115

Tajikistan

1157,76

6

6,66

116

Kosovo

1157,64

4

5,91

117

Sudan

1153,93

6

4,79

118

Malawi

1153,48

-3

-8,91

119

Niger

1152,28

-7

-13,63

120

New Zealand

1149,43

2

0,00

121

Libya

1147,70

-2

-8,56

122

Central African Republic

1147,09

-4

-10,55

123

Thailand

1146,80

-17

-31,27

124

Kazakhstan

1144,41

0

-2,94

125

Guatemala

1139,12

2

9,82

126

Angola

1135,88

0

0,00

127

Rwanda

1134,24

2

10,55

128

Philippines

1131,93

-3

-4,01

129

Antigua and Barbuda

1131,08

-1

2,06

130

Turkmenistan

1117,60

0

11,09

131

Togo

1105,62

2

1,48

132

Equatorial Guinea

1105,20

0

0,00

133

Comoros

1104,45

-2

-1,99

134

Tanzania

1093,76

3

5,71

135

Lithuania

1092,18

-1

-10,66

136

Latvia

1081,47

2

-0,19

137

Ethiopia

1079,41

3

0,00

138

St. Kitts and Nevis

1077,76

-3

-13,36

139

Suriname

1077,57

-3

-11,86

140

Burundi

1075,64

2

0,00

141

Solomon Islands

1072,78

2

0,00

142

Kuwait

1067,44

6

11,14

143

Lesotho

1066,79

3

-3,12

144

Nicaragua

1063,60

3

3,09

145

Myanmar

1057,44

-6

-23,82

146

Hong Kong

1053,39

-2

-18,61

147

Botswana

1051,58

3

-0,24

148

Gambia

1051,13

4

7,68

149

Liberia

1049,21

2

1,92

150

Eswatini

1047,90

4

8,66

151

Afghanistan

1047,17

-2

-5,07

152

Chinese Taipei

1046,34

-11

-32,14

153

Yemen

1046,26

-8

-24,28

154

Malaysia

1040,77

-1

0,75

155

New Caledonia

1035,12

2

0,00

156

Andorra

1031,64

2

-3,26

157

Dominican Republic

1029,42

-1

-6,80

158

Maldives

1028,30

-3

-10,01

159

Tahiti

1014,27

2

0,00

160

Singapore

1000,50

-1

-19,77

161

Fiji

996,27

2

0,00

162

Barbados

995,94

0

-15,01

163

Vanuatu

995,62

1

0,00

164

Papua New Guinea

990,55

2

0,00

165

South Sudan

984,19

4

0,00

166

Bermuda

982,43

2

-5,35

167

Grenada

974,03

-7

-43,54

168

Nepal

972,19

3

4,31

169

Belize

967,42

1

-10,53

170

Mauritius

964,94

2

0,00

171

Puerto Rico

962,77

7

23,91

172

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

960,71

-5

-28,61

173

Guyana

958,87

-8

-31,78

174

Indonesia

955,05

-1

-9,02

175

Moldova

954,15

2

5,99

176

St. Lucia

953,45

0

0,00

177

Malta

952,00

-2

-3,89

178

Montserrat

950,71

2

17,07

179

Cambodia

950,26

-5

-13,53

180

Cuba

946,86

1

23,83

181

Chad

935,00

-2

0,00

182

Djibouti

922,37

1

3,46

183

Macau

922,10

-1

0,00

184

Dominica

916,72

4

12,46

185

Mongolia

916,68

7

19,71

186

Laos

912,07

-1

0,00

187

Bhutan

910,96

0

0,00

188

Bangladesh

909,18

-4

-8,20

189

Liechtenstein

907,66

-3

-3,39

190

Brunei Darussalam

903,90

-1

0,00

191

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

903,31

-1

0,00

192

American Samoa

900,27

-1

0,00

193

Samoa

894,26

0

0,00

194

Gibraltar

880,27

1

0,11

195

Timor-Leste

879,43

1

0,00

196

Somalia

873,71

1

-5,42

197

Cayman Islands

873,64

-3

-10,80

198

Pakistan

866,81

1

0,00

199

Seychelles

865,69

1

0,00

200

Tonga

861,81

2

0,00

201

Aruba

859,97

4

9,87

202

Bahamas

858,50

-1

-3,34

203

Guam

858,49

-5

-14,34

204

Eritrea

855,56

-1

0,00

205

Sri Lanka

846,54

-1

-6,53

206

Turks and Caicos Islands

839,84

0

-3,81

207

US Virgin Islands

816,13

0

-13,00

208

British Virgin Islands

812,94

0

-13,33

209

San Marino

802,43

1

-2,28

210

Anguilla

792,34

-1

-13,08


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

32 comments:

  1. Ed,

    I've always trusted your data since even you've proved FIFA wrong on occasions. Any idea why the person who runs this site (which I've never heard of before it popped up on reddit today) has Mexico and the US flipped?

    https://football-ranking.com/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. I've also seen that. The difference is that they're taking points off Mexico for losing the Nations League final, when in theory, they shouldn't because defeats in KO stages don't make you lose points.

      Delete
    3. Rodrigo said it. Such a shame when people build a nice site about not even a very complicated issue, and mess it up like this.

      Delete
    4. According to their graphic on that page, it doesn't seem like they are deducting points during the playoff stages

      Delete
  2. Thanks. I wasn't sure if Nations Leagues had that ruled applied about the knockout stages or if it was just confederation/WC finals.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Indeed, this rule is also applied to Nations league finals. The UNL Finals in 2019 showed that already.

    ReplyDelete
  4. That site has wrong calculation of coeffs. It should be done recursively just like on Ed springsheets. Instead they add/subtract points from previous piblished rankings.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Have you been able to figure out the Estonia/Lithuania/Latvia rankings from FIFA? It doesn't work for me when I remove the Baltic Cup nor if I make it worth 5 or 10 points. Confused.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I got the correct points after excluding Lithuania vs Estonia, and set the I-factor for Estonia vs Latvia to 5

      Delete
    2. The fun part of having over 300 matches. We need to figure out what and how FIFA counted things.

      Delete
    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  6. I'm down to the last few differences. What seems to be the case is that we have a split FIFA calendar between confederations (https://kassiesa.net/uefa/files/2018-24-fifa-calendar.pdf). UEFA/CONMEBOL use the standard one from 31 May to 8 June, and the rest until 15 June. I had to write a new scraper for automating the calculation given the new website, and I'm having to model the situation where a friendly match either has an importance of 5 or 10 depending whether or not a team or teams from the confederation with the extended calendar plays in it. So Kosovo v Gambia has an importance of 5, but Japan v Serbia has an importance seemingly of 10 for both. Maybe this is because of where the match was played, the first match in UEFA, the second in AFC. I can't explain it otherwise. I can confirm that it looks like Lithuania v Estonia was removed from the list of A internationals, and then for Estonia v Latvia an importance of 5 is used because it was played two days after the match calendar for UEFA "expired".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Correction: https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/88176dce3738a428/original/cd3qpcttmbbjowbso2tz-pdf.pdf

      Delete
  7. I can get it down to two unexplainable differences:

    - Bahamas 858.506 (me) against 858 (FIFA)
    - Malawi 1153.496 (me) against 1154 (FIFA)

    This is 348 matches:
    100 Friendlies
    2 Baltic Cup
    1 ANC Qualifier
    51 Euro 2020
    28 Copa America
    25 Gold Cup
    5 Gold Cup Qualifiers
    4 CCC Nations League Finals
    101 World Cup Qualifiers
    24 COSAFA Cup
    7 Arab Cup

    Excluded:

    2021-05-25 Indonesia 2-3 Afghanistan
    2021-05-25 Oman 1-0 Thailand
    2021-05-29 Singapore 1-1 Afghanistan
    2021-06-01 Lithunia 0-1 Estonia (Baltic Cup)
    2021-06-08 Kosovo 1-2 Guinea
    2021-06-08 Cameroon 0-0 Nigeria
    2021-06-09 Niger 0-1 Congo
    2021-06-11 Sudan 3-2 Zambia

    Included:

    2021-06-05 Gambia 2-0 Niger
    2021-06-11 Kosovo 1-0 Gambia
    2021-07-03 Mexico 4-0 Nigeria

    Questionable (one of these is probably included):

    2021-07-03 Lesotho 0-0 Namibia
    2021-07-04 Botswana 1-1 Namibia

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anyone else have these tiny discrepancies for Malawi and Bermuda???

      Delete
  8. I've been playing around with the FIFA rankings and their formula. Most of you probably know there is a factor of 600 applied in the Win Expectancy Calculation. Basically a team that is 600 points ahead of it's opponent will have a win exp. of 90.9%. I was curious of that number matched up well to the fairly large set of results we've had since June 2018.

    And well the short answer is no it doesn't. Using a factor of 400 (which is what the Elo Football Rankings use as a base factor) matches up with the results much better. In particular, using the 600 factor results in favorites winning too much and underdogs losing too much. This results in the favorites gaining more points then they should.

    Here's a quick summary of what happens when you recalculate all the matches since the new formula started using 400 as the factor.

    https://i.imgur.com/Oj7an7i.png

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi Ed, I'm wondering if you will update the link of overall "Points Calculation" matches and rankings. It seems to me that last update was since May,21 while huge updates after while. Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hey Tarek (and everybody else),
    I will of course, but at the moment I'm enjoying my holiday. It will be next week at the earliest that I will be able to thoroughly look at the August ranking in comparison with my calculations and also update the points calculation sheet afterwards.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Good news, the decimals are coming back in FIFA website

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. That's a huge help, but a lot of rounding errors now. At least the problems with Malawi and Bahamas (not Bermuda) are gone, which is strange because that shouldn't make a difference, unless FIFA use some strange rounding, or fewer decimals. But at least this clears up the problem regarding the two Namibian matches before the COSAFA Cup. Neither their match against Lesotho nor Botswana are included. Instead, the match between Jordan and and Vietnam on 31 May is included.

      Delete
  12. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Well, I'm back from holiday and have finally found the time to research the published August ranking.

    Although FIFA initially published only the integer points, after a few days the pleasant surprise came that they indeed switched to publishing the first two decimals again. Great !

    In comparison with my final preview FIFA included the following matches that I excluded:
    2021-06-02 Mozambique - Lesotho (5:0), friendly in Maputo (MOZ)
    2021-06-05 Eswatini - Lesotho (1:0), friendly in Maputo (MOZ)
    2021-06-08 Mozambique - Eswatini (1:1), friendly in Maputo (MOZ)
    2021-06-21 Jordan - South Sudan (awd 3:0), this Arab Cup qualifier wasn't played because of a lot of COVID-19 cases in the South Sudanese team, but still included by FIFA.

    In comparison with my final preview FIFA excluded the following matches that I included:
    2021-05-25 Indonesia - Afghanistan (2:3), friendly in Dubai (UAE)
    2021-05-25 Oman - Thailand (1:0), friendly in Dubai (UAE)
    2021-05-29 Singapore - Afghanistan (1:1), friendly in Dubai (UAE)
    2021-06-01 Lithuania - Estonia (0:1), match one in the Baltic Cup in Vilnius (LTU).
    2021-06-08 Cameroon - Nigeria (0:0), friendly in Wiener Neustadt (AUT)
    2021-06-08 Kosovo - Guinea (1:2), friendly in Manavgat (TUR)
    2021-06-09 Congo - Niger (1:0), friendly in Antalya (TUR)
    2021-06-11 Sudan - Zambia (3:2), friendly in Omdurman (SDN)
    2021-06-17 Algeria - Liberia (5:1), friendly in Oran (ALG)

    As Homer indicated FIFA has decided to handle friendlies more strictly according to the fixed dates per confederation in their International Match calendar 2020-2024. Until now we had the following 'examples' regarding this aspect:
    - the September 2020 window was only open for UEFA. The all-AFC friendly on 2020-09-03 between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan (played in UZB) was included with I=10.
    - the October 2020 window was open for all confederations except CONCACAF. The all-CONCACAF friendlies on 2020-10-10 and 2020-10-13 between Costa Rica and Panama (played in CRC) were both included with I=10.
    - the November 2020 window was open for all confederations except CONCACAF. The all-CONCACAF friendly on 2020-11-15 between Guatemala and Honduras (played in GUA) was included with I=10. Also the friendly on 2020-11-16 between USA and Panama (played in Austria) was included with I=10.
    - the March 2021 window was open for all confederations while UEFA had one extra day to accommodate a third qualification match day. The all-UEFA friendlies on 2021-03-31 (the extra day) between Switzerland and Finland and between Sweden and Estonia were included with I=10.

    Now the June 2021 window was from May 31st to June 8th for UEFA and CONMEBOL teams and until June 15th for the other confederations. The friendlies with UEFA or CONMEBOL teams involved after June 8th were:
    2021-06-09 Portugal - Israel (played in POR): I=5
    2021-06-10 Estonia - Latvia (played in EST): I=5
    2021-06-11 Japan - Serbia (played in JPN): I=10
    2021-06-11 Kosovo - Gambia (played in TUR): I=5
    The first two all-UEFA friendlies are logically calculated with I=5. I think it's also logical that JPN-SRB had an I=10 as Japan is an AFC-team. The difficulty starts with the KOS-GAM friendly. I would expect that because GAM is a CAF-team this match would also be I=10. Other friendlies after June 8th with CAF-teams involved have after all an I=10. Homer suggested that the (European) venue plays a role here. I find that hard to believe, because that would be the first time that FIFA does anything at all with the venue in their calculations. But for now it is indeed the only explanation I can come up with too.

    With these considerations included I can calculate all points on two decimals correctly as shown in the updated points calculation sheet.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hi Ed, hope you had a nice holiday! I'm a little surprised you have the same numbers, but it could be because of the correction differences that were (needed to be) made for the April ranking. I myself have very small differences for 12 CONCACAF nations, and unsurprisingly all of them were "corrected" in my database after FIFA published their April ranking with the decimals. Actually, in total I corrected 20 nations at that time, ranging from between -0.005 for Grenada, and -1.77 for Barbados. But also Canada -0.02, Guatemala 0.03, Panama -0.05, etc. But I was already thinking that these numbers are all (apart from Grenada) precise to only two decimal points, and we calculate the rankings without limiting the decimal points. For presentation/comparison I do round the points, but not in the database. So I'm curious about how your April corrections compare, and if you have all countries exact to within two decimal points. For example, for Canada I have 1399.356.. (so 1399.36), whereas FIFA list 1399.35. For Panama I have 1334.861... (so 1334.86) whereas FIFA list 1334.85. I have further differences for St. Kitts/Nevis 0.007, Nicaragua -0.006, Bermuda -0.008, Grenada -0.006, Belize -0.006, St. Vincent/Grenadines -0.011, Montserrat -0.006, Cuba -0.005, Bahamas 0.006, and the US Virgin Islands 0.006. All others are exact. I should also add, my starting numbers for the previous ranking are all "exactly" the same as the "previous" points that FIFA quote for the August ranking, so the starting point was correct at least for all CONCACAF nations (which I double-checked!). I also "programmatically scrape" the FIFA ranking off the website before my program works out the ranking, so it is not like I entered a number wrong somewhere... Dank alvast voor je tijd en ik ben dankbaar voor wat voor hulp dan ook! mvg!

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  15. Hi Homer,

    indeed, your small differences must be caused by using (correctly) the unrounded numbers in the calculations while at the same time your starting points from the May ranking were 'only' correct on two decimals. Of course the starting points should be unrounded too.
    After the April 2021 ranking I made only a few adjustments: for the CONCACAF teams BRB, GUY and SLV concerning their 'famous' 2018 adjustments based on earlier rounded ranking points, which turned out not completely correct when regarded the two decimals in the April 2021 ranking.

    In the updated detailed points calculation sheet (which you can download under the 'Important info' section in the main menu) all details about the calculations per country are presented. Hand made adjustments are mentioned in the country-tabs for BRB, CIV, SLV, ETH, GUY, PAN, SDN and ZAM. Also you can find in that sheet the complete list with included matches and each resulting ranking with unrounded points since June 2018. I think you can find all the answers on your questions there, and if not, feel free to ask them in detail here. I will gladly answer them.

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  16. Hi Ed, no, I think you misunderstand. I always use unrounded numbers for every calculation, always have, for the many years I've done this, and I only show rounded numbers for presentation in my application (actually with a checkbox I can see both). What I meant was that when I corrected my country points when FIFA started showing two decimal places in April, I corrected my "unrounded" numbers to FIFA's two decimal places. But of course, that just moves the problem along to the next ranking (or in this case two rankings further because the previous one included just one match for which the problem did not show). This because FIFA's numbers are also just presented to two decimal points, but in reality they are unrounded. If I use a more "accurate" correction, correcting to the numbers in your spreadsheet, then of course I get the same number as FIFA, like you, albeit after rounding to two decimal places. Who knows what the "real" numbers are beyond the decimal points as used by FIFA themselves. Anyway, this solves the problem for now, thank you.

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  17. Hi Ed, I am confused with I=5 and I=10...It's my understanding the I=5 is applied to friendlies played outside IMC, and I=10 within IMC...not if a country played with another outside their region as in Japan-Serbia.

    so by your logic, I=5 is applied when CRC-SLV played on 08.21 and yet for the SLV-VEN (08.27) I=10 should be applied but you used I=5 even thou VEN is from CONMEBOL. What I am missing ?

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  18. Until now the I-factor for friendlies was only based on the match date. It was very simple: if the match date falls inside the IMW then I=10 else I=5.
    But now with all the match schedule adjustments because of COVID-19 FIFA is forced to define for the IMW's until Summer 2022 different periods for different confederations: there is no longer one IMW for all confederations. For instance: the June 2021 IMW for UEFA and CONMEBOL was from May 31st to June 8th, the June 2021 IMW for the other confederations was from May 31st to June 15th.

    What can we deduce from the August 2021 ranking in relation to the applied I-factor of friendlies?

    - I=10 is applied for friendlies with a match date that falls inside the IMW of AT LEAST ONE OF THE teams confederations. For example: JPN-SRB played on June 11th had I=10 because the match date falls within the IMW for AFC (Japan's confederation).
    - I=5 is applied for friendlies with a match date that falls outside the IMW of BOTH OF THE teams confederations. For example: POR-ISR played on June 9th had I=5 because the match date falls outside the IMW for UEFA (Portugal's and Israel's confederation).
    - The problem lies in the match Kosovo-Gambia, played on June 11th. According to the simple rules above, this match should have I=10 because the match date falls within the IMW for CAF (Gambia's confederation). The match was however calculated with I=5. Apparently there should be an additional condition applied that forced the I-factor of this match to become 5. Homer suggested (and I concurred) that this must be caused by the venue where the match was played (Turkey => confederation UEFA).

    So this means that from now on the I-factor should be determined as:
    - I=10 is applied for friendlies with a match date that falls inside the IMW of at least one of the teams confederations AND the match venue is situated in a confederation with an IMW where the match date also falls inside.
    - I=5 is applied in other cases.

    Your examples of friendlies played on August 21st and August 27th are both calculated with I=5 because the September IMW starts for all confederations on August 30th, so the match date of these friendlies falls outside the September IMW anyway (and of course also outside the June IMW).

    There were in June not many examples to test if these new I-factor determination conditions are true: only 4 friendlies were played after June 8th with UEFA or CONMEBOL teams involved.

    Also in the coming months the opportunities to test this hypotheses will be very limited (if existent at all). Here are all currently published IMW's until Summer 2022:
    September 2021 IMW: 30 Aug - 7 Sep (for AFC, CAF, OFC) and 30 Aug - 8 Sep (for UEFA and CONCACAF) and 30 Aug - 9 Sep (for CONMEBOL)
    October 2021 IMW: 4 Oct - 12 Oct (for UEFA, AFC, CAF, OFC) and 4 Oct - 13 Oct (for CONCACAF) and probably 4 Oct - 14 Oct (for CONMEBOL)
    November 2021 IMW: 8 Nov - 16 Nov (for all confederations)
    January 2022 IMW: 24 Jan - 1 Feb (for AFC, CAF, CONMEBOL, OFC) and 24 Jan - 2 Feb (for CONCACAF)
    March 2022 IMW: 21 Mar - 29 Mar (for UEFA, AFC, CAF, CONMEBOL, OFC) and 21 Mar - 30 Mar (for CONCACAF)
    June 2022 IMW: 30 May - 14 Jun (for all confederations)

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    Replies
    1. This is an outstanding explanation and thanks for the detailed explanation.

      Honestly in my opinion, I think having the additional condition of where the match played was an unintended consequence which FIFA did not foresee. I have the feeling that FIFA will eliminate this and revise the I factor for next release. I do see Qatar playing a lot of friendlies and spot a few of them outside the IMW. We see what happens at next official rankings.

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