Friday, November 23, 2012

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (23 November 2012)

Next update: March / April 2013.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

France will host the final tournament.

The qualifying format is already known (but things might change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)

Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding update (23 November 2012)

Next update: February 2013

Includes matches up to and including 21 November 2012.

See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.

November 2012: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


South Sudan 200 131 69
Syria 147 82 65
Fiji 167 120 47
Mauritania 206 163 43
China PR 88 49 39
Thailand 152 113 39
Finland 91 58 33
New Zealand 93 60 33
Eritrea 192 159 33
Papua New Guinea 195 162 33

Friday, November 16, 2012

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 probable ranking (II)

Next update: 23 November 2012. 

FIFA will publish the ranking on 19 December.


Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

No time for the preview today. Of the top 50 only Argentina, Brazil, Australia, Jamaica and Haiti still have matches to play.

Argentina can't move from 3rd, no matter what they do against Brazil, who could be ranked between 16th and 18th depending on the result of the Superclásico de las Américas. A new worst ever ranking for Brazil.

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 probable results (II)

Here are the probable results used for the December 2012 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

Friday, November 9, 2012

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 probable ranking

Next update: 16 November 2012. 

FIFA will publish the ranking on 19 December.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. 

The 2012 CECAFA Cup draw is scheduled for 12 November, thus I couldn't generate the probable results for this competition.

Based on these probable results, Vietnam, Sao Tome e Principe, Cuba, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, and Jamaica would climb more than 15 spots, while Belize, Bermuda, Saudi Arabia, Chad, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Wales, Korea DPR, Curacao and Dominican Republic would drop more than 15 places.


FIFA Ranking: December 2012 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the December 2012 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins