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Friday, November 16, 2012

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 probable ranking (II)

Next update: 23 November 2012. 

FIFA will publish the ranking on 19 December.


Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

No time for the preview today. Of the top 50 only Argentina, Brazil, Australia, Jamaica and Haiti still have matches to play.

Argentina can't move from 3rd, no matter what they do against Brazil, who could be ranked between 16th and 18th depending on the result of the Superclásico de las Américas. A new worst ever ranking for Brazil.

Ecuador (13th) will improve their best ever ranking.
Côte d'Ivoire will return to their best ever ranking.

Probable December 2012 rank - Team - Probable December 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1606 0 42
2 Germany 1437 0 16
3 Argentina 1256 0 -93
4 Italy 1165 1 -4
5 Colombia 1164 3 54
6 England 1151 0 -16
7 Portugal 1144 -3 -34
8 Netherlands 1124 -1 -4
9 Russia 1070 0 -14
10 Croatia 1064 0 -14
11 Greece 1033 1 29
12 Switzerland 1004 4 38
13 Ecuador 999 4 48
14 Côte d'Ivoire 995 1 21
15 Mexico 994 -1 10
16 Uruguay 975 -5 -72
17 Brazil 961 -4 -33
18 France 949 0 11
19 Algeria 887 0 -20
20 Sweden 870 3 44
21 Belgium 868 -1 -13
22 Japan 840 2 30
23 Denmark 821 -1 -30
24 Norway 810 2 32
25 Mali 809 3 37
26 Chile 793 -5 -60
27 Bosnia-Herzegovina 788 4 42
28 USA 782 -1 6
29 Czech Republic 781 -4 -25
30 Ghana 777 -1 15
31 Montenegro 756 3 65
32 Hungary 750 -2 -3
33 Romania 700 4 31
34 Zambia 697 5 64
35 Korea Republic 686 -3 -42
36 Australia 683 -3 -36
37 Jamaica 673 13 87
38 Paraguay 666 -3 -24
39 Serbia 659 3 33
40 Turkey 627 -2 -12
41 Slovenia 617 8 24
42 Egypt 615 -2 -12
43 Haiti 610 14 57
44 Bolivia 609 7 24
44 Gabon 609 8 28
44 Republic of Ireland 609 -8 -73
47 Tunisia 606 -1 -3
48 Peru 603 -4 -8
49 Slovakia 595 -6 -24
49 Ukraine 595 6 20
51 Bulgaria 585 -11 -42
52 Panama 582 -6 -27
53 Central African Republic 581 -1 0
53 Nigeria 581 4 28
55 Libya 572 4 27
56 Iran 552 -12 -59
57 Venezuela 551 -9 -49
58 Poland 550 -4 -29
59 Honduras 540 -3 -32
60 Guinea 527 11 42
61 Sierra Leone 521 0 0
62 Albania 518 5 22
63 Canada 517 -3 -9
64 Belarus 516 10 38
65 Costa Rica 515 -1 6
66 Uzbekistan 513 3 23
67 Cameroon 511 -5 -9
68 Trinidad and Tobago 499 11 53
69 Cape Verde Islands 498 -6 -13
70 Austria 492 -2 0
71 Togo 491 2 12
72 Scotland 490 -2 2
73 Georgia 481 -8 -18
74 Morocco 466 -2 -16
75 Armenia 457 7 13
75 Benin 457 2 0
77 Senegal 455 -2 -16
78 Israel 454 0 2
79 FYR Macedonia 448 4 17
80 Angola 443 -1 -3
81 Equatorial Guinea 439 14 42
82 Guatemala 438 -6 -29
83 Wales 435 -17 -62
84 Uganda 434 2 6
85 Finland 431 6 20
86 Estonia 425 -2 -5
87 South Africa 416 -3 -14
88 China PR 410 0 -14
89 Burkina Faso 408 0 -15
90 Iceland 392 6 0
91 New Zealand 390 2 -14
92 Jordan 381 -2 -39
93 Iraq 380 4 -10
94 Oman 374 -8 -54
95 Northern Ireland 367 5 11
95 United Arab Emirates 367 14 47
97 Qatar 365 7 35
98 Sudan 357 4 24
99 Korea DPR 349 -18 -96
99 Zimbabwe 349 -1 -34
101 El Salvador 348 -7 -54
102 Niger 335 5 11
103 Latvia 334 5 12
104 Congo DR 332 -5 -28
105 Dominican Republic 330 -13 -76
105 New Caledonia 330 -1 0
107 Ethiopia 327 -5 -6
108 Congo 325 7 16
108 Malawi 325 -7 -12
110 Liberia 312 4 0
110 Mozambique 312 0 -6
112 Cuba 298 29 100
113 Kuwait 288 -3 -30
114 Lithuania 284 5 -12
115 Azerbaijan 277 8 0
116 Sao Tome e Principe 275 17 35
117 Botswana 274 0 -25
117 Guyana 274 -1 -31
117 Namibia 274 0 -25
120 St. Kitts and Nevis 271 -14 -56
121 Vietnam 270 17 53
122 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 269 4 6
123 Saudi Arabia 258 -11 -55
124 Suriname 257 1 -8
125 Moldova 255 7 14
126 Turkmenistan 254 3 0
127 Bahrain 252 -3 -18
128 Cyprus 248 -1 -10
128 Puerto Rico 248 2 0
130 Lebanon 244 -18 -69
131 Burundi 241 -3 -14
132 Antigua and Barbuda 234 -11 -47
133 Rwanda 233 -11 -47
133 Tajikistan 233 4 8
133 Thailand 233 19 73
136 Tanzania 231 -2 -6
137 Kenya 224 -7 -24
138 Syria 223 9 51
139 Tahiti 215 0 0
140 Chad 212 -20 -70
141 Kazakhstan 200 -1 0
142 Barbados 197 11 39
143 Gambia 186 -1 0
144 Nicaragua 180 -8 -53
145 Malta 178 4 12
146 Philippines 174 -3 -10
147 Luxembourg 172 -3 -7
148 St. Lucia 168 -2 -7
149 Solomon Islands 166 0 0
150 Aruba 163 4 9
151 Faroe Islands 151 8 13
152 Grenada 148 -3 -18
153 Liechtenstein 146 4 -1
154 Malaysia 141 9 14
155 Bermuda 139 -20 -96
156 Indonesia 138 9 14
157 Palestine 137 -9 -31
158 Singapore 134 5 7
159 Lesotho 130 -1 -10
159 Maldives 130 1 -5
161 Dominica 124 -6 -27
162 Hong Kong 112 10 4
163 Yemen 108 -1 -23
164 Myanmar 107 -8 -42
165 Vanuatu 99 9 0
166 Chinese Taipei 96 10 6
166 India 96 3 -20
168 Belize 92 -24 -87
169 Fiji 85 -2 -36
170 Nepal 83 -1 -33
171 Bangladesh 81 0 -33
172 Laos 78 5 -9
173 Samoa 74 -8 -50
174 Bahamas 66 9 0
174 Guinea-Bissau 66 1 -32
174 Montserrat 66 9 0
177 Curacao 65 -16 -69
178 Swaziland 61 7 5
179 Madagascar 55 -6 -51
179 Mongolia 55 7 0
181 Brunei Darussalam 52 6 0
181 Timor-Leste 52 6 0
183 Cambodia 50 8 1
184 South Sudan 49 16 29
185 Guam 48 -4 -23
186 Tonga 44 -9 -43
187 Afghanistan 39 -20 -82
187 US Virgin Islands 39 3 -11
189 Papua New Guinea 38 6 0
190 Pakistan 37 -10 -35
191 Sri Lanka 36 -9 -32
192 British Virgin Islands 34 5 0
193 Cayman Islands 33 -4 -18
194 American Samoa 30 -15 -55
195 Comoros 29 1 -7
196 Somalia 27 -3 -16
197 Eritrea 24 -5 -21
197 Seychelles 24 -3 -15
199 Macau 23 0 1
200 Kyrgyzstan 20 0 0
201 Cook Islands 16 -3 -12
202 Djibouti 13 0 -4
202 Mauritius 13 1 0
204 Andorra 11 -1 -2
205 Anguilla 4 0 0
206 Mauritania 3 0 0
207 Bhutan 0 0 0
207 San Marino 0 0 0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

11 comments:

  1. Why was FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia game excluded from the list?
    Slovenia escaped -10 fall, FYRM could climb +5...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both used 6 subs each so it can't be that. Maybe something with referees?

      Delete
  2. England get to keep 6th place. However, the gap to falling into 8th has dropped from 57pts to 27pts. Colombia's ascension has made the struggle for the seed places interesting. Looks like there's going to be plenty of jockeying over that 7th spot...

    I wonder if Argentina and Brazil are getting sick of the sight of each other yet?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Haiti defeated Grenada. They remain on course for that super inflated ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Yeah, Haiti's current position in ELO-ranking is the 100th spot (11th in CONCACAF). In the FIFA-ranking they are currently 42nd overall and 3rd in CONCACAF.
    Both in overall-ranking as well as in CONCACAF-ranking a huge difference!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Haiti lost to French Guyana which will count for ELO ranking but not for FIFA ranking. Looking at their opposition however I just don't see where those big points came from. It's quite obvious many teams are punished for playing friendlies. This is certainly the case for AFC with many regional competitions.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Johnny,

    this first time frame Haiti played just 4 matches, all Caribbean Cup qualifiers (no friendlies) and they won all of them (indeed the loss against French Guyana does not count for FIFA), averaging to almost 400 FIFA-points. The opposition is far from impressive (Bermuda, Puerto Rico, Guyana and Grenada), but it does the trick.

    Their second time frame was also quite good (weighted 130 FIFA points) with a number of easy WC qualifier-wins (against US Virgin Islands and Curacao) and one, in terms of match-points outstanding, win against Antigua.
    These last two years contribute the bulk of the 609 FIFA points they have at the moment.

    So Haiti shows it is possible with opposition from the range 100-150 to reach spot 42 in the ranking. Their secret seems indeed to be very modest with the friendlies and win the qualifiers.

    Let's wait and see if they can keep it up at the Caribbean Cup finals with stronger opposition. They can at least play their first match in the finals 'for free' as it is the fifth of the first time frame. Another one is against Martinique (no FIFA member) so effectively only one group match could have a real impact on their FIFA points.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, they're Caribbean Cup qualifiers, but what they really are is Gold Cup qualifiers, and that's why they're worth 2.5Xpts. So CONCACAF can have their regional tournaments worked into their confederation championship's qualifying system. The Copa Centroamericana also qualifies teams to the Gold Cup. This is more for Johnny's benefit than yours, Ed.

      Delete
    2. Lorric, you're right, of course the continental qualifier multiplier is also a very relevant factor in the rise of Haiti.

      Btw What is so difficult about preparing a scheme of fixtures for the Caribbean Cup finals and STICK TO IT ? CFU has finally decided to put all the second round group winners together with host Antigua in one group and all the runners-up with champion Jamaica in the other group. A fair decision ?

      Delete
    3. No. I felt it was fair before, two runners up with the defending champion. That doesn't make sense to me. Jamaica don't need any protection, they're the best team in the Caribbean by a massive distance. In fact, you're punishing the group winners with this, as at least one group winner will go out while one group runner up is now guaranteed a place at the Gold Cup! It's a stupid decision for that last reason more than anything! It has been of greater benefit to be a runner up than a group winner! Antigua and Barbuda have shown the region in World Cup qualifying that they're a tough opponent at home with the USA barely scraping a win there and getting a draw with Jamaica and running Guatemala close.

      Delete