FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday October 26th. This final preview contains 170 matches, out of 181 matches played since September 18th.
One team reaches a new highest rank:
Kosovo (105 - 106 in June 2022)
Two teams fall back to their lowest rank:
Grenada (176 in December 2007)
Liechtenstein (200 in July 2023)
Here is the probable October 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday October 26th. In the upcoming October window matches for the following tournaments will be played:
- the CONCACAF Nations League 2024 group stage continues with match days 3 and 4. In league A these are already the final group matches. Numbers 1 and 2 in both groups will continue to the new quarter finals in November against one of the four CONCACAF top seeds;
- match days 7 and 8 of qualification for EURO 2024;
- qualification for the World Cup 2026: match days 3 and 4 in the South American group and the first round home-and-away play-offs in Asia;
- lots of friendlies, most involving African and Asian teams, some also in tournaments like the Melanesian Cup and the Merdeka tournament in Malaysia.
- the postponed qualifier between Morocco and Liberia for the African Cup of Nations 2023. Morocco is already qualified. The draw for this tournament in January 2024 in Cote d'Ivoire will be staged on October 12th.
Here are the probable results of all 154 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including October 22nd, used to calculate the October 2023 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since September 18th, (probably) counting for the October ranking, are presented.
Last week the match days five and six of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started. See for previous simulation results: after MD2 and after MD4.
Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The complete remaining match schedule for UEFA teams is simulated, including currently scheduled friendlies in 2023.
FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday September 21st. This final preview contains 165 matches, out of 182 matches played since July 17th.
Eritrea played their last official match 4 years ago in September 2019. They are excluded from the ranking from now on, until they have played again. Eritrea is participating in African qualifying for the World Cup 2026, with the first round scheduled for November.
The match schedule for the group stage matches in African qualification for the World Cup 2026 is finally released, so now I'm able to simulate the process. The format is very simple: all 54 African teams are divided in 9 groups of 6 teams and the 9 group winners qualify for the World Cup.
The 4 best ranked group runners-up will qualify for a play-off, consisting of two one-off semi finals and a one-off final to determine the CAF representation in the IPO. The seeding for this play-off is unknown yet. It could be a completely free draw, or seeding according to the prevailing FIFA ranking or to the ranking of the 4 participants based on group results and then 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3.
This play-off will be played anyway in November 2025.
