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Wednesday, June 3, 2009

2010 WC: Seeding formula based on current standings (3 June 2009)

Seeded teams for the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa.

Qualified teams determined using the current standings and the FIFA rankings.

No changes.

Croatia miss the UEFA playoffs as worst runner-ups (see Wikipedia).
 1 Germany          60.0 30.3 29.7
2 Brazil 58.3 29.3 29.0
3 Italy 56.7 27.3 29.3
4 Spain 56.3 25.3 31.0
5 England 52.0 26.3 25.7
6 Argentina 49.3 21.0 28.3
7 France 48.3 23.3 25.0
8 Netherlands 43.7 14.7 29.0
9 USA 35.3 13.7 21.7
10 Paraguay 34.0 11.7 22.3
11 Switzerland 32.3 15.3 17.0
12 Ghana 27.0 13.3 13.7
13 Japan 26.7 13.3 13.3
14 Russia 26.3 3.0 23.3
15 Korea Republic 25.3 15.7 9.7
16 Australia 24.3 11.3 13.0
17 Serbia 22.7 5.3 17.3
18 Denmark 22.3 7.7 14.7
19 Greece 22.3 0.0 22.3
20 Uruguay 21.7 2.7 19.0
21 Cote d'Ivoire 19.0 6.0 13.0
22 Scotland 17.7 0.0 17.7
23 Tunisia 16.0 8.7 7.3
24 Costa Rica 14.0 8.3 5.7
25 Saudi Arabia 13.7 8.0 5.7
26 Northern Ireland 12.3 0.0 12.3
27 Chile 11.3 0.0 11.3
28 Honduras 9.7 0.0 9.7
29 South Africa 5.7 3.0 2.7
30 Gabon 4.0 0.0 4.0
31 Zambia 3.3 0.0 3.3
32 Korea DPR 1.0 0.0 1.0
Top 7 + South Africa seeded.

The pots:

Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, Greece, Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Russia, Scotland, Serbia, Switzerland
Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Japan, Korea DPR, Korea Republic, Saudi Arabia, USA
Pot 4: Chile, Cote d'Ivoire, Gabon, Ghana, Paraguay, Tunisia, Uruguay, Zambia

Possible draw (using

Group A: South Africa, Serbia, Costa Rica, Chile
Group B: Spain, Russia, Korea Republic, Uruguay
Group C: England, Scotland, Saudi Arabia, Zambia
Group D: Brazil, Netherlands, Korea DPR, Gabon
Group E: France, Switzerland, Honduras, Ghana
Group F: Italy, Northern Ireland, Japan, Tunisia
Group G: Argentina, Greece, USA, Cote d'Ivoire
Group H: Germany, Denmark, Australia, Paraguay


  1. Is Italy in Group F in all your projections because they are the defending champ. I know that Brazil was placed in group F in 06 is this a FIFA rule? The reason I ask is because I have Italy TST tickets for 2010 and want to start planning the trip.

  2. Hi Brian!

    For the 2006 WC, FIFA announced in advance that Brazil will be placed in Group F. They did not make a similar announcement regarding Italy (yet).

    Enjoy your time in South Africa!

  3. South Africa will be in group A as organizers, it is probable that Italy will be placed in one of the groups E-H.

    For the draw of the Group Stage for the WC2006, FIFA only named the seeded teams. The other teams were divided into pots according to their geographical situation, with a special pot for Serbia and Montenegro. By doing so, it made the draw easier.


  4. On that page (in the Seeds section) it says:

    It had been predetermined that, as the host, Germany would be placed in Group A, thus being assured of the venues of their group matches in advance of the draw. FIFA had also announced in advance that Brazil (the defending champion) would be allocated to Group F.

  5. So I did something similar for a project and did everything you did, except that I wasn't sure if the CONCACAF teams were going to be paired up with the Asian teams or the African teams and I couldn't find any info on pots for the 2010 WC. In 2006, they were paired with asian teams, in 2002, african teams.

    Do you know that for sure they'll be paired up with Asian teams? If so where did you find the info?

    As a Mexico supporter, I'd rather share the pot with African teams to avoid them lol.


  6. Hi Hugo! No, I don't know for sure how the various confederations will be paired up. I just use the 2006 WC as starting point.

  7. Has FIFA confirmed that they will use the same seeding formula as in 2006?

  8. No. As far as I can remember, they've always announced the seeding formula at the end of the qualifying competition. Expect FIFA to make an announcement in December, a few days before the draw.

  9. Great information. Any idea what might happen if a CONCACAF team beats a South American team in the final playoff, say Mexico over Ecuador? This would really foul up the numbers (2 SA non-seeded, 4 CONCACAF, 5 Asian, 5 African) when trying to get pots of 8.

  10. @Rocky Top

    I don't know. They have plenty of options. I have no official information regarding this.

  11. It would seem that being in the European pot is a large advantage for the European minnows - it helps them avoid 5 of the top 7 ranked teams. If you assume that you are unlikely to qualify from any group with 2 teams that are both rated more than 10 fifa spots higher than you, how often does this happen to Euro unseeded teams vs. Concacaf or african or Conmebol teams. I imagine you could simulate this, and see how often each group actually has a shot at getting to the round of 16. Would be interesting

  12. @PH13425

    I'm really not into simulations. You could ask Voros.

    You could also look at past World Cups and see how often a team qualified having 2 opponents from the top 10. Ghana at the 2006 World Cup comes to mind.