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Monday, June 22, 2009

FIFA Ranking: July 2009 preview (IV)

June 24th, 2009

June 2009 differences solved. However, the ranking is not updated. The June 29th update will include the correct values for England, Trinidad and Tobago, Greece and Armenia.

___________________________


Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006. Except England - see June 2009 differences.

The final July 2009 preview will be posted on June 29th.

Besides the Confederations Cup matches, there's only one more match before the official June 25th deadline - a Mexico - Venezuela friendly.

This means only 6 teams can change their point totals: Brazil, USA, Spain, South Africa, Mexico and Venezuela. In the ranking table, the value displayed for these teams is the minimum possible value. This means that even if they lose their remaining match(es) their total can't drop.

Maximum values for the 6 teams: Spain (1738), Brazil (max 1689), USA (1078), South Africa (670), Mexico (793), Venezuela (646).

Best movers:

23 - Korea DPR
22 - Moldova
20 - Côte d'Ivoire

Worst movers:

-39 - Sierra Leone
-34 - Gambia
-32 - Bermuda

Best movers in the top 50:

20 - Côte d'Ivoire
19 - Algeria
17 - Gabon

Worst movers in the top 50:

-16 - Turkey
-12 - Bosnia-Herzegovina
-11 - Sweden

Cook Islands move off the bottom of the ranking after taking 4 points from Tonga in two friendly matches.

Côte d'Ivoire - top African team, replacing Cameroon. Egypt drop out of the African top 5, replaced by Gabon - the new third team in Africa.

Costa Rica replace Mexico as CONCACAF's second team. Jamaica up to 5th, replacing Panama.

Uruguay and Paraguay exchange places again, Uruguay taking 3rd place.

Six teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Serbia (13th - 17th in July 2007)
Australia (15th - 27th in February 2009)
Gabon (31st - 45th in January 1996)
Grenada (88th - 102nd in June 2009)
Montenegro (98th - 110th in June 2009)
Antigua and Barbuda (105th - 109th in October 2006)

Serbia and Australia can be overtaken by the USA. Gabon can be overtaken by Mexico.

Côte d'Ivoire will revisit their highest ever ranking - 18th, first achieved in August 2006.

The British Virgin Islands will go back to their worst ever ranking - 193rd, first achieved January 2008.

Fourteen teams will have their worst ever ranking:

Mexico (35th - 32nd in August 2008)
Sweden (42nd - 33rd in April 2009)
Congo DR (102nd - 95th in June 2008)
China PR (108th - 104th in January 2009)
Zimbabwe (115th - 106th in April 2009)
United Arab Emirates (123rd - 122nd in April 2009)
Mauritius (176th - 174th in April 2008)
St. Lucia (191st - 189th in April 2009)
Tahiti (191st - 190th in January 2009)
Andorra (197th - 196th in May 2009)
Dominica (198th - 197th in April 2009)
Central African Republic (202nd - 201st in April 2009)
Papua New Guinea (203rd - 202nd in April 2009)
San Marino (203rd - 202nd in April 2009)

Mexico can still avoid this with a win against Venezuela.

Teams in red will improve their total if they make at least a point in their remaining matches.

July 2009 rank - Team - July 2009 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Spain 1519 0 -242
2 Brazil 1500 3 212
3 Netherlands 1379 -1 -63
4 Italy 1229 0 -63
5 Germany 1207 -2 -171
6 England 1165 0 -60
7 Russia 1161 2 -6
8 Argentina 1091 -1 -112
9 France 1082 1 15
10 Croatia 1031 -2 -169
11 Greece 1003 6 81
12 Switzerland 930 4 -1
13 Serbia 925 7 55
14 Denmark 909 10 73
15 Australia 886 14 107
16 USA 885 -2 -62
17 Portugal 879 -6 -125
18 Côte d'Ivoire 874 20 129
19 Ukraine 869 0 -22
20 Uruguay 860 -3 -62
21 Czech Republic 850 -6 -93
22 Paraguay 846 -9 -115
23 Bulgaria 840 0 2
24 Scotland 837 -2 -3
25 Israel 823 0 -4
26 Romania 814 2 24
27 Chile 811 10 65
28 Turkey 809 -16 -155
29 Cameroon 803 -8 -52
30 Costa Rica 801 11 107
31 Gabon 789 17 173
32 Northern Ireland 785 -5 -35
33 Nigeria 773 -3 3
34 Ghana 772 2 22
35 Mexico 768 -9 -54
36 Ecuador 760 8 74
37 Honduras 758 -2 -3
37 Republic of Ireland 758 -3 -4
39 Egypt 753 1 34
40 Japan 723 -9 -43
41 Poland 706 -2 -16
42 Sweden 702 -11 -64
43 Slovakia 688 -1 -5
44 Hungary 681 -1 -6
45 Bosnia-Herzegovina 680 -12 -83
46 Colombia 675 -1 -3
47 Algeria 659 19 169
48 Korea Republic 634 -2 -20
49 Tunisia 617 2 20
50 Venezuela 610 6 42
51 Norway 606 -4 -32
52 Burkina Faso 598 -2 -10
53 Finland 592 -4 -22
54 FYR Macedonia 590 10 75
55 Morocco 569 0 -2
56 Latvia 562 3 10
57 Guinea 561 -4 -25
58 Iran 559 -6 -28
59 Mali 551 -5 -32
60 Lithuania 544 0 0
61 Saudi Arabia 542 -5 -26
62 Slovenia 539 -1 3
63 Belgium 532 0 14
64 Bolivia 521 -6 -44
65 Jamaica 520 11 64
66 Panama 501 -5 -35
67 Bahrain 496 3 23
68 Austria 493 2 20
68 Wales 493 6 25
70 South Africa 478 2 7
71 Togo 468 -3 -7
72 Trinidad and Tobago 465 0 -6
73 Cyprus 445 6 4
74 Belarus 443 7 11
75 Libya 438 -6 -36
75 Uganda 438 -8 -42
77 Zambia 419 13 15
78 Oman 413 2 -27
79 Uzbekistan 402 -1 -41
80 Benin 399 11 -3
80 Senegal 399 -5 -64
82 Mozambique 394 5 -18
83 Korea DPR 393 23 55
84 Moldova 388 22 50
85 Cuba 383 14 30
86 Qatar 380 8 -5
87 Peru 379 2 -28
88 Congo 378 -2 -41
88 Grenada 378 14 34
90 El Salvador 375 10 23
91 Sudan 367 -3 -41
92 Canada 358 -9 -72
93 Iceland 357 -1 -43
94 Iraq 355 -17 -95
95 Albania 347 -3 -53
96 Syria 345 8 4
97 Tanzania 344 12 12
98 Montenegro 339 12 8
99 Gambia 337 -34 -177
100 New Zealand 336 -18 -95
101 Fiji 333 7 0
102 Angola 330 -5 -44
102 Congo DR 330 -18 -93
104 Georgia 326 1 -13
105 Antigua and Barbuda 325 9 29
105 Kenya 325 -3 -19
107 Barbados 319 13 42
108 China PR 318 -10 -45
109 Guatemala 312 3 1
109 Malawi 312 2 -11
111 Suriname 309 12 43
112 Estonia 307 1 10
113 Rwanda 298 -17 -77
114 Cape Verde Islands 296 -20 -89
115 Zimbabwe 295 -14 -51
116 Namibia 294 12 45
117 Thailand 290 -1 0
118 Kuwait 287 -1 -2
119 Luxembourg 284 1 7
120 Haiti 257 4 -7
121 Guyana 248 6 -7
122 Jordan 244 4 -15
123 United Arab Emirates 243 -1 -25
124 Sierra Leone 241 -39 -180
125 Chad 233 4 -13
126 Singapore 228 8 2
127 Madagascar 226 3 -15
128 Armenia 222 3 -17
129 Burundi 220 10 12
130 Equatorial Guinea 219 -5 -42
131 Vietnam 215 4 -9
132 Indonesia 206 6 -3
133 Kazakhstan 204 -1 -26
134 Botswana 203 -16 -75
135 Nicaragua 195 7 0
136 Niger 187 8 16
137 Hong Kong 186 6 0
138 Ethiopia 177 -20 -101
139 Azerbaijan 175 1 -26
140 Netherlands Antilles 169 5 9
141 Vanuatu 163 -1 -38
142 Liberia 161 -6 -60
142 Swaziland 161 -5 -57
144 Yemen 157 2 0
145 St. Kitts and Nevis 151 6 12
146 Bermuda 150 -32 -146
147 India 148 0 -7
148 Tajikistan 147 0 0
149 New Caledonia 142 -16 -87
150 Malta 140 0 0
151 Lebanon 138 6 18
152 Turkmenistan 137 2 7
153 Liechtenstein 134 3 9
154 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 133 -1 -3
155 Myanmar 129 0 0
156 Maldives 117 -7 -25
157 Malaysia 112 2 3
158 Philippines 108 2 0
159 Eritrea 106 -2 -14
160 Kyrgyzstan 105 2 0
161 Lesotho 103 3 3
162 Sri Lanka 101 -1 -6
163 Solomon Islands 100 1 0
164 Mauritania 99 -1 -5
165 Faroe Islands 96 1 0
166 Puerto Rico 87 -15 -52
167 Pakistan 85 0 -3
168 Somalia 82 0 0
169 Bangladesh 80 2 7
170 Seychelles 77 10 16
171 Cayman Islands 76 -2 0
172 Laos 73 -1 0
173 Nepal 71 -3 -4
174 Chinese Taipei 70 -3 -3
175 Palestine 69 0 0
176 Cambodia 64 3 1
176 Mauritius 64 -2 -6
176 Samoa 64 1 0
179 Mongolia 61 -3 -7
180 Belize 57 -3 -7
181 Bahamas 53 0 0
182 Turks and Caicos Islands 51 0 0
183 Brunei Darussalam 46 0 0
184 Dominican Republic 40 2 0
184 Tonga 40 5 8
186 Guinea-Bissau 38 1 0
187 Afghanistan 36 -3 -8
188 Cook Islands 34 14 34
188 Guam 34 0 0
190 Djibouti 33 -5 -8
191 St. Lucia 32 -2 0
191 Tahiti 32 -2 0
193 British Virgin Islands 30 -1 0
194 Macau 28 0 0
195 Aruba 22 0 0
196 Bhutan 17 -4 -13
197 Andorra 16 -1 -1
198 Dominica 12 -1 0
199 Timor-Leste 9 -1 0
200 Comoros 8 -1 0
200 US Virgin Islands 8 -1 0
202 Central African Republic 4 -1 0
203 American Samoa 0 -1 0
203 Anguilla 0 -1 0
203 Montserrat 0 -1 0
203 Papua New Guinea 0 -1 0
203 San Marino 0 -1 0

21 comments:

  1. so if Brasil faces Spain in the Confederations Cup final, will they be playing for the #1 ranking?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Kind of. Assuming both make it to the final, Brazil will overtake Spain at the top of the rankings if

    1. Brazil - Spain 1 (no PSO)

    OR

    2. (SF1) Brazil - South Africa 1 (no PSO)
    AND
    (SF2) Spain - USA X (Spain PSO)
    AND
    (F) Brazil - Spain X (Brazil PSO).

    ReplyDelete
  3. I have two questions:

    Which ranking will the US have...:

    ...If they lose both their matches left in the Confederations Cup (to Spain in the semifinal and in the 3rd-place match)?

    and

    ...If they lose the semifinal against Spain, but win in the 3rd-place match against Brazil/South-Africa?

    Hope you understood :)

    ReplyDelete
  4. @Anonymous -- the US will have the ranking displayed if they lose both their matches. That's what Edgar meant by "In the ranking table, the value displayed for these teams is the minimum possible value. This means that even if they lose their remaining match(es) their total can't drop."

    ReplyDelete
  5. So, let me see if I understood.

    My questions are:

    1. If the US lose (two) remaining matches on the Confederations Cup, their position can't drop. That means that although they lose both matches, they will remain on 16th position (with 885 points). Right?

    2. If the US occasionally win the Confederations Cup, they will gather 1078 points, which will set the US as the 10th ranked nation in the world. Right?

    3. Which position will the US "capture" if they lose in the semis, but win in the Third place match?

    4. Which position will US "capture" if they lose in the finals?

    This may be some stupid questions, but I still hope for some answers:)

    Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Australia 15th?!?!? :) :) :)

    ReplyDelete
  7. Edgar

    do you have a program to calculate the points of the teams???

    ReplyDelete
  8. Thank you guys so much for answering my question (first question about Brasil v. Spain). This website is fantastic! I just discovered it yesterday and will definitely make it one of my mainstays!

    ReplyDelete
  9. @ERic

    Thank you for your help. Your answer was spot on.

    @Anonymous

    1. USA getting bronze. There are three possibilities:

    a. USA will be 14th if:

    Spain - USA 1
    USA - South Africa X (USA PSO)

    b. USA will be 11th if:

    Spain - USA X (Spain PSO)
    USA - Brazil 1

    c. Every other scenario with USA taking bronze at the Confederations Cup will put the USA in 12th.

    2. US getting silver. Two possibilites:

    a. USA will be 11th if:

    USA - Spain 1
    USA lose after PSO in the final.

    b. Every other scenario with USA taking silver at the Confederations Cup will put the USA in 12th.

    @Settimo

    Only if the USA fail to win a single point in their last two matches.

    @hussein

    Yes, I've written an application that computes the FIFA ranking.

    @Guindiblog

    You're welcome. Thank you for your nice words!

    ReplyDelete
  10. Only Semi finals of Confeds will count towards this ranking release. Final & 3rd place play-off will count to next months ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  11. While you're technically right... there's also the issue of the semi-official deadline. FIFA always include matches played up to Sunday if they were played in one of their major competitions: World Cup final tournament, continental final tournament or Confederations Cup.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I read all this comments and i understood that the US will remain 16th if they lose their remaining matches. If so, come on Spain and South-Africa in the bronze match. Possibility 1 a) is also good!

    Serbia have to remain 13th :)

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hi Edgar!

    Please clarify one point for me.
    You say that the minimum possible points are included for July ranking for the teams still in play.
    Does it means the following p.e.
    USA played 17 games during 12 monthes semi- and final CC included as two losses.
    Yeasterday USA won over Spain and thus 1800/17=106 points should be added to their amount of 885.
    The new amount will be 991 uplifting USA to 12th place in FIFA Ranking provided they will loose the final game?

    Best regards,
    Osiris

    ReplyDelete
  14. In addition to my previous post.

    I understood that USA win increased the ranking amount by 106 points to 991 (12th place). And should USA win over let's say Brazil in the final that can add another 103 points which will lead them to 8th place in Ranking?

    regards,
    Osiris

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hi Osiris!

    Yes, I have the USA with 17 matches (with two losses in the KO matches of the Confederation Cup).

    The win against Spain added 1665/17 = 97.94 points. 1800 * (1 + 0.85) / 2 = 1665. You forgot to factor in the confederation strength. The USA now have 983 points - 12th place.

    A win against Brazil will add 1605.825 / 17 = 94.46 points to the total -> 1078 points. That's also the maximum value I said the USA can achieve.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hi Edgar!

    Thanks a lot for your reply.
    I have really forgotten about CS factor:(
    So in July we anticipate the following ranking:

    1-2 Brazil -1570-1672
    1-2 Spain-1519-1590
    ...
    10-12 USA-983-1078

    Thanks for your site,

    Osiris

    ReplyDelete
  17. The Aussies at 15ish? You sure?

    ReplyDelete
  18. Australia are 15th. ABOUT TIME! We can more than match anyone in the 11th-20th section. GO YOU SOCCEROOS!!!

    ReplyDelete
  19. >The Aussies at 15ish? You sure?

    going through world cup qualification 2nd phase undefeated, only conceding 1 goal.
    2nd team to qualify for s.a. 2010.
    beating netherlands in the netherlands.
    what's so unbelievable about 15th?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Australia will be 16th.

    FIFA Ranking: July 2009 final preview.

    ReplyDelete