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Friday, August 26, 2011

FIFA Ranking: September 2011 probable ranking

Next update: 9 September 2011.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 21 September.

Spain in pole position to claim first place in the rankings. Read more about Netherlands chances of remaining on top.

Samoa and American Samoa avoid being unlisted. With no games they would have been removed from the ranking. Papua New Guinea return to the ranking.

Samoa will join the club of teams with 0 points.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.


Tajikistan expected to climb 31 places (after the losses against Syria were awarded to them as wins), with Canada (+20) and Mali (19) the other big climbers.

Moldova (-30), Latvia and Sierra (both -22) expected to drop more than 20 places.

Probable September 2011 rank - Team - Probable September 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1605 1 42
2 Netherlands 1571 -1 -25
3 Germany 1313 0 -17
4 Uruguay 1184 1 10
5 Portugal 1158 3 98
6 Italy 1142 1 32
7 Brazil 1132 -1 -24
8 England 1089 -4 -88
9 Croatia 1057 1 48
10 Russia 1031 3 91
11 Argentina 1024 -2 7
12 Greece 976 2 39
13 Japan 963 2 45
14 France 956 1 38
15 Chile 943 -4 -17
16 Côte d'Ivoire 918 -1 0
17 Sweden 909 1 20
18 Switzerland 886 12 129
19 Australia 882 3 45
20 Norway 880 -8 -63
21 Serbia 855 8 71
22 Mexico 847 -2 -17
23 Turkey 827 1 16
24 Slovenia 818 -1 2
25 Montenegro 808 -6 -67
26 Paraguay 795 -1 -12
27 Denmark 789 -6 -52
28 Republic of Ireland 780 3 26
29 Korea Republic 779 4 34
30 Egypt 777 4 38
31 USA 776 -3 -15
32 Peru 754 -6 -52
33 Belgium 741 4 66
34 Colombia 735 1 5
35 Israel 724 -3 -22
36 Slovakia 716 -10 -90
37 Belarus 701 4 56
38 Ghana 700 -2 -26
39 South Africa 652 8 50
40 Burkina Faso 651 0 5
41 Bosnia-Herzegovina 641 -2 -15
42 Jamaica 636 1 13
43 Hungary 630 2 17
44 Czech Republic 628 -2 -7
45 Nigeria 614 -7 -45
45 Senegal 614 4 23
47 Georgia 611 16 89
48 Algeria 605 -2 -7
48 Iran 605 5 46
50 Cameroon 596 2 14
50 Venezuela 596 -6 -19
52 Morocco 593 9 64
53 Romania 584 1 26
54 Honduras 572 -4 -17
54 Scotland 572 1 18
56 Panama 571 6 47
57 Bulgaria 559 -6 -27
58 Ukraine 546 -10 -52
59 Albania 528 -2 -18
60 Tunisia 527 -3 -19
61 Costa Rica 526 -1 -4
62 Libya 519 2 15
62 Mali 519 19 111
64 Lithuania 504 -8 -48
65 Northern Ireland 503 -6 -42
66 Zimbabwe 489 8 55
67 Guinea 484 2 20
68 China PR 482 1 18
68 Ecuador 482 -2 -9
70 Poland 480 -5 -18
71 Finland 472 8 56
72 Gabon 461 -5 -21
73 Armenia 447 -2 -9
74 Malawi 439 -1 3
75 Uganda 424 5 13
76 Cyprus 419 0 -8
77 Benin 417 6 23
78 Trinidad and Tobago 414 13 59
79 Zambia 410 -3 -17
80 Austria 402 -12 -70
81 Uzbekistan 398 1 -3
82 Canada 395 20 76
83 Botswana 394 -5 -30
84 Estonia 392 2 18
85 El Salvador 390 -10 -41
86 Bolivia 380 -1 0
87 New Zealand 377 7 31
88 Cape Verde Islands 372 -16 -72
89 Angola 371 7 33
90 FYR Macedonia 366 0 8
91 Saudi Arabia 359 -4 -13
92 Antigua and Barbuda 353 14 45
93 Jordan 352 -1 4
94 Bahrain 343 7 18
95 Cuba 332 4 5
95 Iraq 332 14 39
95 Kuwait 332 0 -9
98 Qatar 323 -10 -41
99 Oman 319 4 7
100 Azerbaijan 318 12 46
100 United Arab Emirates 318 8 19
102 Sudan 308 -4 -21
103 Haiti 305 13 46
104 Guatemala 302 9 41
104 Syria 302 -7 -35
106 Latvia 294 -22 -94
107 Central African Republic 292 -3 -17
108 Niger 286 -4 -23
108 Suriname 286 2 1
110 Grenada 285 8 36
111 Mozambique 280 -12 -47
112 Guyana 278 2 18
113 Togo 276 8 34
114 Sierra Leone 274 -22 -74
114 Wales 274 3 23
116 Gambia 265 -9 -41
117 Korea DPR 257 -3 -3
118 Moldova 255 -30 -109
119 St. Kitts and Nevis 254 3 15
120 Faroe Islands 244 -9 -29
121 Tanzania 240 4 11
122 Tajikistan 238 31 106
123 Thailand 233 -3 -13
124 Liberia 230 -1 -8
125 Iceland 227 -1 -5
126 Liechtenstein 225 -7 -22
127 Congo 221 5 20
128 Dominica 213 8 20
129 Vietnam 209 0 0
130 Congo DR 203 -3 -19
130 Namibia 203 13 34
132 Kenya 200 1 2
133 Kazakhstan 198 -7 -29
134 Ethiopia 195 6 14
135 Indonesia 194 -4 -13
136 Nepal 193 0 0
137 Singapore 189 -8 -20
138 Luxembourg 186 -10 -25
139 Yemen 185 -6 -13
140 Bangladesh 183 -1 1
141 Dominican Republic 182 -8 -16
141 Fiji 182 0 2
143 Turkmenistan 179 -1 0
144 Rwanda 178 -6 -14
145 Malaysia 158 1 0
146 Burundi 154 -1 -10
147 Barbados 148 0 -8
148 Puerto Rico 145 -4 -22
149 US Virgin Islands 144 0 0
150 Bahamas 141 1 0
151 Belize 128 -3 -18
152 Hong Kong 124 2 -7
153 New Caledonia 122 12 18
154 India 115 4 3
154 Madagascar 115 -2 -24
156 Chad 110 -2 -21
157 Palestine 109 0 -8
158 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 108 0 -4
159 Guinea-Bissau 106 -9 -36
159 Mongolia 106 1 0
161 Maldives 105 1 0
161 Philippines 105 1 0
163 Myanmar 98 5 -1
164 Swaziland 96 8 6
165 Malta 94 2 -8
166 Aruba 92 4 0
166 Equatorial Guinea 92 -12 -39
168 Chinese Taipei 89 1 -8
168 Lebanon 89 -8 -17
170 Cambodia 84 6 1
170 Cayman Islands 84 2 -6
170 Sri Lanka 84 4 -2
173 Seychelles 82 2 -3
174 Vanuatu 81 -12 -24
175 Tahiti 79 8 22
176 Pakistan 78 -6 -14
177 Comoros 75 5 7
177 Curacao 75 -11 -28
177 Kyrgyzstan 75 0 -4
180 Laos 71 0 0
180 Nicaragua 71 -1 -4
182 Afghanistan 70 -1 0
183 Solomon Islands 69 -6 -10
184 St. Lucia 63 0 9
185 Lesotho 49 0 9
186 Guam 36 11 26
187 Mauritius 33 1 -2
188 Bermuda 30 -3 -10
189 Eritrea 28 0 -1
190 Papua New Guinea 26 13 26
191 British Virgin Islands 25 -4 -13
191 Macau 25 1 0
193 Mauritania 23 -3 -4
193 Somalia 23 0 0
195 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 0 0
196 Djibouti 12 0 0
197 Cook Islands 10 0 0
198 Anguilla 9 2 2
198 Brunei Darussalam 9 1 0
200 Bhutan 6 1 0
201 Timor-Leste 3 1 0
201 Tonga 3 -7 -12
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Andorra 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 Samoa 0 -12 -26
203 San Marino 0 0 0


 

14 comments:

  1. Eek! Where do the points go?! We win two qualifiers and drop 88pts? Why?

    Oh well, 4th place has been fun for the reaction. It kind of looks like FIFA "fixed" the top end of the ranking, and made it "how it should be" with that setup. "Oh, Spain lost the top spot, we'd better take some points off the Netherlands to correct that." "Eh, how did England get so high! We'd better hit them with a sledgehammer, they're way too high!"

    And why do Portugal bag 98pts for a win over Cyprus? Big changes here. Argentina predicted to be booted from the top 10 too to join France.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Wow, drop 305pts if we lose those games. We must have lost something BIG for this. What happened?

    ReplyDelete
  3. @Lorric: That's just how the FIFA rankings work. The problem is that because of the shifting of old results, you can't really predict the new ranking and it doesn't necessarily reflect the current results!

    The ranking is just horrible and I don't understand why FIFA don't use a ranking system close to the ELO ratings. I mean even women's football has a better ranking!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Yes, I think both rankings have their good points and bad points. A fusion of the two would work best for me. Elo is certainly better than FIFA though.

    Edgar, could I trouble you for a breakdown on the points England will end up with depending on results? I know about 2 wins and two defeats. What about the combinations inbetween? Beat Bulgaria and tie Wales? Beat Wales and tie Bulgaria? Beat Bulgaria, lose to Wales? Beat Wales and lose to Bulgaria? Two draws? Tie Bulgaria, lose to Wales? And finally, tie Wales, and lose to Bulgaria? With such huge differences to the points totals, I'd like to know, if you don't mind.

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  5. @Lorric

    For the last three years England won massive points in qualifying games in september against Switzerland and Bulgaria (2010) and Croatia (2009 and 2008). These results devaluate this coming month.

    Wins over Bulgaria and Wales next weekend will soften the blow...

    ReplyDelete
  6. @ Ed

    Hmmm, I always thought it would be the month previous that would devalue, but thinking about it logically, I see why now. Thanks. September has been a big, big month for English teams the last three years! I hope that trend continues this month!

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  7. @ Ed

    I've been looking back at previous Septembers. England have been scorching hot the last five! Take a look:

    2006
    England 5 Andorra 0
    Macedonia 0 England 1
    2007
    England 3 Israel 0
    England 3 Russia 0
    2008
    Andorra 0 England 2
    Croatia 1 England 4
    2009
    England 2 Slovenia 1
    England 5 Croatia 1
    2010
    Switzerland 1 England 3
    England 4 Bulgaria 0

    Magnificent. Long may it continue!

    ReplyDelete
  8. JUST ONE INFO, INDIA WONT BE 154TH IN SEPT, BECAUSE BOTH INDIA'S MATCH AGAINST PAK HVE BEEN CANCELED AND MAYBE 1 MATCH MAY TAKE PLACE LATER IN MID-SEPT SO CAN U RE CALCULATE BY HOW MANY PLACES WILL WE FALL BY??!! THANKS
    FAN FROM INDIA

    ReplyDelete
  9. @ Lorric

    England will have the following points after this weekend's matches:

    BUL win, WAL win : 1089 pts
    BUL win, WAL draw : 1037 pts
    BUL win, WAL loss : 1011 pts

    BUL draw, WAL win : 996 pts
    BUL draw, WAL draw : 944 pts
    BUL draw, WAL loss : 918 pts

    BUL loss, WAL win : 950 pts
    BUL loss, WAL draw : 898 pts
    BUL loss, WAL loss : 872 pts

    As you can see a win against Bulgaria is necessary to limit the damage.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hey Fan from India,

    the two friendly defeats in the Caribbean caused a loss of 6 points (112 to 106 pts) in the september-ranking and with that a drop of 2 places from 158 to 160 for India.

    ReplyDelete
  11. @ Ed

    Thanks a lot Ed. You don't have "gar" on the end of that, but you'll do for me! :)

    ReplyDelete
  12. Lorric, you're welcome.

    Just trying to save Edgar some work with answering all those questions regarding that difficult ranking-system, which btw isn't so horrible as Lusankya suggested above. Recent results have the highest weight, so it should reflect the recent form of teams quite good.

    Don't get me wrong, I also like the ELO-rating better, because the teams are ranked more stabile in that system. Especially the devaluation of past results causes sometimes a strange 'plunge' in the ranking (as this month with England) which is not conform expectations or reality (read: recent form).

    ReplyDelete
  13. @Ed

    Thanks for all the help! :)

    ReplyDelete
  14. Really Mexico goes down by two places and they haven't loss yet >:(

    ReplyDelete