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Friday, December 2, 2011

FIFA Ranking: Why did Wales fall?

A lot of Welsh football fans were mystified by Wales' drop in the November rankings, despite winning against a higher-ranked team - Norway and their form (4 wins in the last 5 matches).

Why did it happen? I tried to explain, but with the questions still coming, I think a post is required.

October 2011

The columns are as follows: Match date, Opponents' FIFA trigramme, FIFA match points for Wales.

"0.2 time frame"

17-Nov-2007 IRL 420
21-Nov-2007 GER 487.5
06-Feb-2008 NOR 513
26-Mar-2008 LUX 150
28-May-2008 ISL 345
01-Jun-2008 NED 0
20-Aug-2008 GEO 0
06-Sep-2008 AZE 465
10-Sep-2008 RUS 0
11-Oct-2008 LIE 487.5
15-Oct-2008 GER 0

"0.3 time frame"

19-Nov-2008 DEN 498
11-Feb-2009 POL 0
28-Mar-2009 FIN 0
01-Apr-2009 GER 0
29-May-2009 EST 261
06-Jun-2009 AZE 450
12-Aug-2009 MNE 0
09-Sep-2009 RUS 0
10-Oct-2009 FIN 0
14-Oct-2009 LIE 375

"0.5 time frame"

14-Nov-2009 SCO 462
03-Mar-2010 SWE 0
23-May-2010 CRO 0
11-Aug-2010 LUX 249
03-Sep-2010 MNE 0
08-Oct-2010 BUL 0
12-Oct-2010 SUI 0

"1.0 time frame"

08-Feb-2011 IRL 0
26-Mar-2011 ENG 0
25-May-2011 SCO 0
27-May-2011 NIR 405
10-Aug-2011 AUS 0
02-Sep-2011 MNE 1357.5
06-Sep-2011 ENG 0
07-Oct-2011 SUI 1365
11-Oct-2011 BUL 1087.5

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4 2868 11 0.2 52.145
-3 1584 10 0.3 47.520
-2 711 7 0.5 50.786
-1 4215 9 1 468.333

Total: 618.7845022, rounded up to 619.

November 2011

"0.2 time frame"

06-Feb-2008 NOR 513
26-Mar-2008 LUX 150
28-May-2008 ISL 345
01-Jun-2008 NED 0
20-Aug-2008 GEO 0
06-Sep-2008 AZE 465
10-Sep-2008 RUS 0
11-Oct-2008 LIE 487.5
15-Oct-2008 GER 0
19-Nov-2008 DEN 498

"0.3 time frame"

11-Feb-2009 POL 0
28-Mar-2009 FIN 0
01-Apr-2009 GER 0
29-May-2009 EST 261
06-Jun-2009 AZE 450
12-Aug-2009 MNE 0
09-Sep-2009 RUS 0
10-Oct-2009 FIN 0
14-Oct-2009 LIE 375
14-Nov-2009 SCO 462

"0.5 time frame"

03-Mar-2010 SWE 0
23-May-2010 CRO 0
11-Aug-2010 LUX 249
03-Sep-2010 MNE 0
08-Oct-2010 BUL 0
12-Oct-2010 SUI 0

"1.0 time frame"

08-Feb-2011 IRL 0
26-Mar-2011 ENG 0
25-May-2011 SCO 0
27-May-2011 NIR 405
10-Aug-2011 AUS 0
02-Sep-2011 MNE 1357.5
06-Sep-2011 ENG 0
07-Oct-2011 SUI 1365
11-Oct-2011 BUL 1087.5
12-Nov-2011 NOR 528

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4 2458.5 10 0.2 49.170
-3 1548 10 0.3 46.440
-2 249 6 0.5 20.750
-1 4743 10 1 474.300

Total: 590.66, rounded up to 591.

All averages, except the most recent one dropped. Reason? Devaluation of games played in November 2007 (draws against Republic of Ireland in Germany in Euro 2008 qualifiers) - Wales lost 16.50 points , November 2008 (friendly win against Denmark) - Wales lost 4.98 points and November 2009 (friendly win against Scotland) - Wales lost 19.14 points.

Would it have been better not to play in November? No, without the win against Norway, Wales would have had 587 points (as opposed to the current 591).

What if Wales lost? 538 points. And 555 for a draw.

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