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Friday, March 9, 2012

FIFA Ranking: April 2012 probable ranking

Next update: 23 March 2012.

Only the AFC Challenge Cup and two friendlies (Chile - Peru and Jamaica - Costa Rica) before the deadline. All Challenge Cup teams are below 100th, but there's good news for them as FIFA have upgraded ACC matches from friendly to continental qualifier.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings.  Here's the list of results:

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

09/Mar Korea DPR - Philippines 1 (Continental Qualifier)
09/Mar India - Tajikistan X (Continental Qualifier)
10/Mar Palestine - Turkmenistan 2 (Continental Qualifier)
10/Mar Nepal - Maldives X (Continental Qualifier)
11/Mar Tajikistan - Korea DPR 2 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Mar Philippines - India 2 (Continental Qualifier)
12/Mar Maldives - Palestine 2 (Continental Qualifier)
12/Mar Nepal - Turkmenistan 2 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Mar Tajikistan - Philippines 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Mar Korea DPR - India 1 (Continental Qualifier)
16/Mar Turkmenistan - Tajikistan 1 (Continental Qualifier)
16/Mar Korea DPR - Palestine 1 (Continental Qualifier)
19/Mar Palestine - Tajikistan X Tajikistan PSO (Continental Qualifier)
19/Mar Korea DPR - Turkmenistan 1 (Continental Qualifier)
21/Mar Chile - Peru 1 (Friendly)
21/Mar Jamaica - Costa Rica 1 (Friendly)

With the exception of Spain, all top 10 teams will move around, with Italy dropping out and Denmark taking their place.

Liberia, Afghanistan, Sierra Leone and Poland will all climb 10 or more places.

Georgia, Cuba and Israel will drop 18 or more spots.

In the top 50, Libya, El Salvador, Colombia, Romania and Wales will climb 7 or more places.

Israel will drop at least 18 places, Montenegro at least 10. Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Estonia at least 6.

Four teams will improve their ranking:

Uruguay (3rd - 4th in September 2011)
Libya (46th - 53rd in February 2012)
El Salvador (49th - 54th in February 2012)
Chad (103rd or higher - 112th in March 2012)

American Samoa will return to their best ever ranking: 186th, first achieved in December 2011.

Two teams will return to their worst ever ranking:

British Virgin Islands (199th - 199th in December 2011)
Brunei Darussalam (202nd - 202nd in December 2011)

Eight teams will drop to new lows:

Bulgaria (96th or lower - 88th in February 2012)
Iceland (131st or lower - 124th in August 2011)
Cyprus (132nd or lower - 129th in March 2012)
Thailand (140th or lower - 139th in March 2012)
Singapore (156th or lower - 152nd in November 2011)
Barbados (171st - 170th in March 2012)
Solomon Islands (184th - 182nd in April 2011)
Kyrgyzstan (195th - 192nd in February 2012)

Probable April 2012 rank - Team - Probable April 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Spain 1442 0 -119
2 Germany 1345 1 13
3 Uruguay 1309 1 20
4 Netherlands 1207 -2 -172
5 Portugal 1190 2 84
6 Brazil 1165 -1 8
7 England 1132 -1 11
8 Croatia 1114 2 65
9 Denmark 1069 2 44
10 Argentina 1066 -2 -36
11 Russia 1049 1 46
12 Italy 1041 -3 -21
13 Chile 967 1 17
14 Greece 961 -1 8
15 Côte d'Ivoire 951 0 7
16 France 938 0 0
17 Sweden 931 0 5
18 Republic of Ireland 891 1 19
18 Switzerland 891 0 0
20 Mexico 868 2 19
21 Australia 862 -1 -6
22 Ghana 816 1 -4
23 Colombia 815 8 67
24 Norway 805 0 8
25 Paraguay 803 0 12
26 Czech Republic 798 3 36
27 Bosnia-Herzegovina 792 -6 -58
28 Slovenia 781 0 16
29 USA 779 -2 7
30 Japan 753 3 13
31 Korea Republic 746 -1 -5
32 Serbia 725 -6 -54
33 Turkey 720 -1 -27
34 Peru 719 0 -1
35 Slovakia 716 0 6
36 Hungary 692 1 34
37 Ecuador 673 2 25
38 Algeria 667 -3 -43
39 Mali 656 3 27
40 Zambia 640 1 10
41 Wales 635 7 55
42 Gabon 621 1 4
43 Venezuela 617 3 24
44 Belgium 604 -4 -38
45 Romania 603 8 30
46 Libya 602 9 36
47 Armenia 598 -3 -3
48 Scotland 596 3 22
49 El Salvador 589 9 35
49 Ukraine 589 0 11
51 Jamaica 586 3 15
52 Iran 578 -1 4
53 Panama 575 -3 -1
54 Estonia 574 -7 -11
55 Montenegro 569 -11 -32
56 Tunisia 563 0 -1
57 Israel 558 -19 -93
58 Egypt 557 6 27
59 Nigeria 554 -2 -3
60 Honduras 550 3 17
61 Costa Rica 549 -2 -1
62 Morocco 548 -1 3
63 Sierra Leone 533 10 68
64 Cameroon 526 2 21
65 Poland 514 10 53
66 China PR 503 2 8
67 Guinea 499 -2 -10
68 Belarus 494 1 4
69 Uzbekistan 493 -2 -9
70 Iraq 488 6 28
71 South Africa 482 -11 -67
72 Haiti 477 0 8
73 Austria 475 -2 3
74 Latvia 465 4 21
75 Canada 450 4 7
76 Cape Verde Islands 449 -14 -93
77 Senegal 448 -7 -34
78 Angola 440 3 16
79 Finland 430 5 18
80 Burkina Faso 426 -3 -25
81 Jordan 420 2 0
82 Guatemala 419 4 15
83 Trinidad and Tobago 417 -1 -6
84 Albania 384 -4 -48
84 Qatar 384 4 -4
86 Korea DPR 377 25 78
87 Kuwait 376 7 8
87 Uganda 376 1 -12
89 Togo 374 8 25
90 Lithuania 373 1 -10
90 Saudi Arabia 373 -2 -15
92 Congo 366 9 35
93 Bahrain 361 0 -12
93 Oman 361 -1 -20
95 Georgia 360 -21 -102
96 Antigua and Barbuda 358 -1 -2
97 Bulgaria 354 -12 -52
98 Vietnam 347 0 0
99 FYR Macedonia 342 3 14
100 Guyana 341 -1 0
101 Northern Ireland 338 -14 -62
102 Chad 335 10 42
103 Malawi 332 -7 -22
104 Equatorial Guinea 331 4 26
105 Zimbabwe 328 1 21
106 Rwanda 327 -1 11
107 Mozambique 322 -3 3
108 Botswana 321 -8 -17
109 Bermuda 318 -6 -3
110 Bolivia 308 -4 1
111 Azerbaijan 305 5 20
112 St. Kitts and Nevis 298 -3 -3
113 Liberia 293 12 25
114 Gambia 292 9 21
114 Sudan 292 -4 -8
116 Sao Tome e Principe 288 -1 0
117 Kenya 285 -4 -7
118 Faroe Islands 284 -2 -1
119 Congo DR 283 1 2
119 Luxembourg 283 8 19
121 Namibia 281 11 31
121 United Arab Emirates 281 1 6
123 Niger 274 -9 -15
124 Central African Republic 271 7 20
125 Benin 269 2 5
126 Syria 268 0 1
127 Burundi 267 5 17
128 Lebanon 266 -4 -4
129 Liechtenstein 261 8 25
130 New Zealand 256 -11 -28
131 Iceland 255 -10 -22
132 Tajikistan 254 13 44
133 Turkmenistan 253 33 139
134 Cyprus 252 -5 -10
134 Suriname 252 -4 -2
136 Dominican Republic 247 -1 0
137 Cuba 244 -21 -41
138 Kazakhstan 243 4 19
139 Ethiopia 236 1 5
139 Puerto Rico 236 -5 -13
141 Belize 235 -5 -3
142 Thailand 232 -3 -3
143 Moldova 222 0 6
144 Grenada 217 -7 -19
145 Tanzania 215 -4 -13
146 Nicaragua 211 -2 0
147 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 190 -1 2
148 Nepal 173 5 29
149 Malta 161 -1 9
150 Indonesia 160 -3 0
151 Bangladesh 154 13 34
152 Palestine 152 8 21
153 New Caledonia 150 9 24
154 Samoa 149 -4 0
155 Malaysia 148 -3 0
155 Yemen 148 -7 -4
157 India 147 1 15
158 Singapore 145 -8 -4
159 Curacao 138 -5 -4
160 Fiji 133 -3 0
161 Bahamas 132 -6 -9
161 Hong Kong 132 -3 0
163 Lesotho 131 -3 0
164 Philippines 124 -8 -12
165 Madagascar 121 -2 -2
166 Aruba 120 -2 0
167 Afghanistan 118 11 33
168 Chinese Taipei 117 0 7
168 Maldives 117 6 22
170 Guinea-Bissau 116 -2 6
171 Barbados 106 -1 -1
172 Vanuatu 103 0 0
173 Cambodia 101 -7 -13
173 Myanmar 101 4 15
175 Laos 96 -2 0
176 Dominica 95 -2 0
177 Mongolia 90 -6 -16
178 Tonga 88 -2 0
179 Swaziland 86 0 3
179 Tahiti 86 4 13
181 Sri Lanka 82 5 20
182 Pakistan 80 -1 4
183 US Virgin Islands 78 -3 -4
184 Solomon Islands 75 -2 0
185 Cayman Islands 72 -1 0
186 American Samoa 61 1 0
187 Comoros 60 1 5
188 St. Lucia 52 -3 -13
189 Seychelles 47 0 0
190 Eritrea 45 0 0
191 Somalia 43 0 0
192 Mauritius 37 3 5
193 Papua New Guinea 34 1 0
194 Guam 32 -1 -4
195 Kyrgyzstan 29 -3 -10
196 Cook Islands 28 0 0
197 Djibouti 23 0 0
198 Macau 19 1 -1
199 British Virgin Islands 13 -2 -10
200 Anguilla 9 0 0
201 Bhutan 6 0 0
202 Brunei Darussalam 4 -1 -2
202 Mauritania 4 1 0
204 Timor-Leste 2 0 0
205 Andorra 0 0 0
205 Montserrat 0 0 0
205 San Marino 0 0 0
205 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

21 comments:

  1. Is there any chance Uruguay could become # 1, say just before the EURO?

    ReplyDelete
  2. The deadline for the June ranking is June 1st. Before that date Uruguay has planned friendlies against Chile (9/5) and Russia (25/5) and Spain hasn't planned any preparatory friendlies at all, but that will change.

    With two wins for Uruguay they can reach 1327 pts. Spain (without any friendlies) will have 1468 pts.
    Let's assume Spain plans some friendlies. If they play two and lose them both then they'll have 1378 pts. And with playing and losing three they will still have 1344 pts.

    I don't see it happening for Uruguay, at least not before the EURO.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Is there any risk that Uruguay could lose their third place before the EURO? As one commenter pointed out, Uruguay suffered a big drop in the rankings just before Copa America, only to bounce back up after winning the tournament.

      Delete
    2. Two losses for Uruguay in their friendlies and two wins for the Netherlands in their friendlies against Bulgaria and Slovakia leaves NED with 1268 pts and URU with 1256 pts.

      So it could be, but it depends on the results in the friendlies in May for Germany, Uruguay and the Netherlands.
      A close contest, I like that !

      Delete
  3. Great, thanks Ed. I just remembered there was some major point devaluation (and loss of ranking positions) for most South-American teams just before the Copa America, so I thought maybe the same could be the case for European teams before the EURO.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Slipping away...

    No matter. As long as we (England) stay in the top 7 (or 8 with Brazil involved) that's all that matters. That's the next draw, and will be more than enough for a top seed in Euro 2016 qualifying whenever they draw that. But I'm going to miss those upper places.

    Uruguay to 3rd and Netherlands 2nd to 4th with that huge points dump is going to cause a stir methinks.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Lorric,

    the Netherlands are just 'mixing' with the other toppers again. They had an exceptionally good year 2010 with corresponding 'soaringly' high points totals but from now on (starting with the EURO) the big gap with the rest of the top 10 will be gone due to devaluating results and they will have to fight again for their place.

    No stir, just much more interesting to follow.... methinks.

    ReplyDelete
  6. why netherlands will loose all these points ?????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jad,

      because of devaluation of past results.
      To be specific: it's mostly because of the two EURO-qualifier wins against Hungary march last year which will fall to the second time-frame and lose half their weight when calculating the april ranking.

      Delete
  7. Please visit site about EURO 2012 in Ukraine:
    http://nlru.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  8. why Germany will not devaluate points!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jad,

      theory: a team gets points for all the match-results over the last four years. Per year (time frame) an average is calculated as sum points for matches played that time frame divided by matches played in that time frame. Those 4 year-averages are then summed, applying a weight. That sum is the FIFA-ranking score.
      Read http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/procedureandschedule/menprocedure/index.html (and attached documents) if you want to know all the details.

      Now over to Germany:
      Their past results devaluate too, but their FIFA-ranking points remains the same because their first year average happens to climb a lot between the march ranking and the april ranking. And that's mostly because their friendly loss to Australia in march 2011 (which gave zero match points for Germany) drops to the second time frame.

      Delete
  9. Please update the rankings.. Philippines won both against India and Tajikistan.. Lost to Turkmenistan in the Semis but win against Palestine in battle for third..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I've updated the rankings.

      FIFA Ranking: April 2012 probable ranking (II)

      Delete
  10. Now that the AFC Challenge Cup is over, I wonder if you could do a comparison between teams' ranking with the new rule to rate the tournament as continental qualifiers and as friendlies.

    If you don't want to do all of the teams, just do the victors, Korea DPR, who won all their matches.

    That adds Korea DPR to Australia, Korea Republic and Japan at the 2015 Asian Cup. The 4 teams that represented Asia in the last World Cup are the first to qualify for Asian Cup 2015.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Additionally, how about turning Korea DPR's "friendly" wins at the last Challenge Cup into continental wins?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I guess these should be the different points for countries participating in the AFC-Challenge-Cup:

      Country Cont.Qual. Friendly
      Turkmenistan 222 141
      Korea DPR 377 307
      Philippines 182 142
      Palestine 151 123
      Tajikistan 255 237
      Maldives 130 118

      Delete