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Friday, April 3, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (3 April 2015)

More info on the official format in the previous post.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 31 March 2015.

Remember Zimbabwe were excluded. I still have them in the list, just in case they are reinstated.


As there are no details regarding the preliminary rounds, here are the average points for the African teams in July 2015.

Best movers:

4 - Cape Verde Islands, Kenya
3 - Gambia
2 - Gabon, Mozambique

Worst movers:

-3 - Nigeria, Congo DR
-2 - Swaziland

Rank - Previous Rank - Team - Points


1 1 Algeria 955
2 2 Côte d'Ivoire 939
3 3 Ghana 855.942
4 4 Tunisia 838
5 5 Senegal 798
6 6 Cameroon 708
7 7 Guinea 669
8 8 Congo 652
9 13 Cape Verde Islands 616
10 11 Equatorial Guinea 604
11 10 Mali 601
12 9 Nigeria 593
13 14 Egypt 581
14 16 Gabon 568
15 12 Congo DR 560
16 15 South Africa 547.743
17 18 Burkina Faso 515
18 17 Zambia 508.718
19 19 Uganda 488
20 20 Togo 428
21 23 Mozambique 386.508
22 21 Angola 372
23 22 Morocco 354
24 24 Rwanda 347
25 25 Sierra Leone 328
26 26 Malawi 324.721
27 27 Ethiopia 304
28 28 Sudan 290
29 30 Benin 282
30 29 Niger 273
31 31 Botswana 269.449
32 32 Tanzania 242.94
33 37 Kenya 234
34 33 Libya 233
35 34 Zimbabwe 229.656
36 35 Lesotho 220.992
37 36 Namibia 217.698
38 38 Burundi 187
39 39 Mauritania 152
40 40 Guinea-Bissau 131
41 41 Madagascar 127.028
42 42 Liberia 126
43 46 Gambia 111
44 43 Central African Republic 111
45 44 Chad 100
46 47 Mauritius 99.455
47 45 Swaziland 92.21
48 48 Seychelles 66.02
49 49 Sao Tome e Principe 48
50 50 Comoros 37
51 51 South Sudan 24
52 52 Eritrea 8
53 53 Somalia 6
54 54 Djibouti 4

2 comments:

  1. Morocco has been reinstalleted in the Afcon 2017 and 2019:the teams competing in the Afcon qualifying 2017 will be 53,so i guess one group will have 5 teams.

    I wish you a happy easter!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks! Happy Easter to you too! Jesus is risen!

    ReplyDelete