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Friday, May 15, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup: A look at the AFC seeding

A bit overdue, but I've been quite busy.

Improving a team's FIFA ranking is rarely a last minute fix type of thing. As with Amplistan it involves long term planning.

Many of the AFC teams involved in the draw could have climbed to a higher pot with some planning in the year before the draw. However, I will only look at their March games.


Perhaps some of you have look at the AFC round 2 seeding and wondered what would have happened had your favorite team played more friendlies in March or had replaced the March opponents with more carefully chosen ones.

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I've considered two approaches
  1. Adding at most two extra friendlies
  2. Replacing the March games with at most two extra friendlies.
In both cases I've chosen the team with the lowest Elo rating as opponent, providing the win probability for a home game is at least 40%.

Let's take Maldives as an example.

After losing to Tajikistan in March, they had 191 points, well behind Kuwait (224 points) - last team in Pot 2.

Maldives had 63.35653725 points for the first 3 timeframes, while in the last 12 months they had 765.4 points from 6 games.

How many points per match would they have needed to overtake Kuwait with two extra friendlies?

((224 - 63.35653725) * (6 + 2) - 765.4) / 2 = 260 (rounded up)

The team with the lowest Elo matching this would have been the Faroe Islands, with the probability of a Maldives win being 46.12%

With one extra friendly, Maldives would have needed at least 360 points from that game. The lowest matching opponent would have been Equatorial Guinea, but the win probability was only 21.3%

Replacing the Tajikistan friendly with two matches:

((224 - 63.35653725) * (5 + 2) - 765.4) / 2 = 180 (rounded up)

Matching opponent: Aruba. Win probability: 80%

Replacing the Tajikistan friendly with one match:

(224 - 63.35653725) * (5 + 1) - 765.4) = 199 (rounded up)

Matching opponent: St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Win probability: 52.01%

Adding matches

To climb to pot 1:

Saudi Arabia - two wins vs. Tunisia

To climb to pot 2:

Afghanistan - two wins vs. Faroe Islands
Maldives - two wins vs. Faroe Islands
Thailand - two wins vs. Northern Ireland
Tajikistan - two wins vs. Moldova
Lebanon - two wins vs. Aruba or one win vs. Moldova
India - two wins vs. Aruba
Turkmenistan - two wins vs. Faroe Islands

To climb to pot 3:

Kyrgyzstan - two wins vs. San Marino or one win vs. St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Korea DPR - two wins vs. Aruba or one win vs. Sierra Leone
Turkmenistan - two wins vs. American Samoa or one win vs. Aruba
Indonesia - two wins vs. Faroe Islands
Bhutan - two wins vs. American Samoa
Bangladesh - two wins vs. American Samoa

To climb to pot 4:

Malaysia - one win vs. American Samoa
Hong Kong - two wins vs. American Samoa or one win vs. Aruba
Bangladesh - one win vs. American Samoa
Yemen - two wins vs. Aruba or one win vs. Faroe Islands

Replacing the March friendlies:

To climb to pot 1:

Oman - two wins vs. Northern Ireland
Jordan - two wins vs. Tunisia

To climb to pot 2:

Afghanistan - two wins vs. Faroe Islands
Philippines - two wins vs. Equatorial Guinea
Maldives - two wins vs. Aruba or one win vs. St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Thailand - two wins vs. Moldova
Tajikistan - two wins vs. Faroe Islands
Lebanon - two wins vs. Aruba or one win vs. Moldova
India - two wins vs. Aruba
Turkmenistan - two wins vs. Faroe Islands

To climb to pot 3:

Kyrgyzstan - two wins vs. San Marino or one win vs. St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Korea DPR - two wins vs. Aruba or one win vs. Sierra Leone
Myanmar - two wins vs. Faroe Islands
Turkmenistan - two wins vs. American Samoa or one win vs. Aruba
Indonesia - two wins vs. Liechtenstein or one win vs. Moldova
Singapore - two wins vs. St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Bhutan - two wins vs. American Samoa
Malaysia - two wins vs. Moldova
Bangladesh - two wins vs. American Samoa

To climb to pot 4:

Malaysia - one win vs. American Samoa
Hong Kong - two wins vs. Aruba or one win vs. Faroe Islands
Bangladesh - one win vs. American Samoa
Yemen - two wins vs. Aruba or one win vs. Faroe Islands
Guam - two wins vs. San Marino or one win vs. Aruba

2 comments:

  1. What about 2018 WC CAF seeding?
    can you give us detais about CAF seeding?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There's no extra information from CAF regarding the format. Will update the sims today.

      Delete