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Friday, May 22, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (22 May 2015)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 21 May 2015.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.


Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Romania, England, Portugal, Spain, Croatia, Italy
Pot 2: Czech Republic, Slovakia, Wales, Austria, Switzerland, France, Denmark ,Iceland, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Pot 3: Poland, Scotland, Ukraine, Northern Ireland, Greece, Sweden, Serbia, Israel, Hungary
Pot 4: Slovenia, Republic of Ireland, Albania, Turkey, Norway, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Finland, Armenia
Pot 5: Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands, Moldova
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Georgia, Liechtenstein, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino, Andorra

Bosnia-Herzegovina replace Poland in Pot 2.

Best movers:

3 - Bosnia-Herzegovina
2 - Greece

Worst movers:

-3 - Poland and Serbia

Pot 6

100.00% - Andorra
100.00% - San Marino
97.59% - Luxembourg
92.58% - Malta
91.27% - Liechtenstein
84.04% - Georgia
78.14% - Kazakhstan
35.18% - Moldova
18.58% - Faroe Islands
2.53% - Azerbaijan
0.05% - FYR Macedonia
0.04% - Lithuania

Pot 5

96.04% - Azerbaijan
89.89% - Cyprus
89.66% - FYR Macedonia
83.52% - Lithuania
82.53% - Latvia
82.32% - Estonia
80.42% - Belarus
72.87% - Faroe Islands
66.79% - Armenia
64.82% - Moldova
21.86% - Kazakhstan
21.74% - Finland
15.59% - Georgia
12.63% - Montenegro
8.73% - Liechtenstein
7.42% - Malta
2.41% - Luxembourg
0.44% - Bulgaria
0.32% - Norway



Pot 4

100.00% - Turkey
99.68% - Norway
99.56% - Bulgaria
85.90% - Montenegro
78.26% - Finland
58.09% - Albania
55.47% - Slovenia
47.83% - Republic of Ireland
47.44% - Israel
38.04% - Hungary
33.21% - Armenia
24.43% - Serbia
19.58% - Belarus
17.68% - Estonia
17.47% - Latvia
16.44% - Lithuania
13.58% - Northern Ireland
10.29% - FYR Macedonia
10.11% - Cyprus
8.55% - Faroe Islands
7.04% - Greece
5.70% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
3.43% - Sweden
1.43% - Azerbaijan
0.37% - Georgia
0.27% - Poland
0.15% - Scotland

Pot 3

95.24% - Sweden
86.55% - Greece
78.23% - Ukraine
74.28% - Scotland
70.80% - Poland
63.68% - Northern Ireland
61.70% - Hungary
59.68% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
57.29% - Iceland
55.86% - Serbia
52.06% - Republic of Ireland
41.91% - Albania
37.98% - Denmark
36.75% - Slovenia
26.43% - Israel
1.47% - Montenegro
0.09% - Austria

Pot 2

99.50% - France
96.56% - Switzerland
95.05% - Austria
73.37% - Wales
65.93% - Slovakia
65.63% - Czech Republic
62.02% - Denmark
53.41% - Italy
42.71% - Iceland
34.62% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
33.84% - Croatia
28.93% - Poland
26.13% - Israel
25.57% - Scotland
22.74% - Northern Ireland
21.77% - Ukraine
19.71% - Serbia
13.39% - Spain
7.78% - Slovenia
6.41% - Greece
2.08% - Portugal
1.33% - Sweden
1.15% - England
0.26% - Hungary
0.11% - Republic of Ireland

Pot 1

100.00% - Germany
100.00% - Belgium
100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Romania
98.85% - England
97.92% - Portugal
86.61% - Spain
66.16% - Croatia
46.59% - Italy
34.37% - Czech Republic
34.07% - Slovakia
26.63% - Wales
4.86% - Austria
3.44% - Switzerland
0.50% - France

13 comments:

  1. How would this look if Scotland hadn't arranged a friendly V Qatar?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not very different. If I remember correctly, it about 2% lower because of Qatar. The key is winning against Republic of Ireland. But they also need the win to climb to Pot 3.

      Delete
    2. Thanks. So playing Qatar hasn't dropped Scotland from Pot 2 to Pot 3?

      Delete
    3. But losing home and away to Wales probably did :D

      Delete
  2. Regarding Albania, if we have 3 points, from CAS of Lousanne next, week, change this ranking? If Albania have no points from CAS but defeat France, have any change in pots?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As long as you win vs. France, you'll be in pot 3.

      Delete
  3. Edgar, could you provide the % breakdown or our chances for Croatia winding up in Pot 1 vs Pot 2 when we beat Italia as well as when they draw with them in your sims?

    hvala (thanks)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. @nepoznat

      Croatia is 100% seeded if they beat Italy, no matter what.

      If Croatia - Italy end with a draw, Croatia will be seeded if at least two out of four following scenarios happen:

      - Wales don't beat Belgium
      - Czech Rep don't beat Iceland
      - Spain don't beat neither Costa Rica neither Belarus OR Spain beat Costa Rica but lose to Belarus
      - any scenario regarding Portugal, other than that in which they win or draw with Armenia, but then lose to Italy.

      All this is under presumption that Gibraltar are not admitted to FIFA on May 29. If they are admitted, then Croatia will need to win vs Italy.

      Delete
    2. Croatia

      Defeat vs. Italy - Pot 1: 1%; Pot 2: 99%;
      Draw vs. Italy - Pot 1: 82.8%; Pot 2: 17.2%;
      Win vs. Italy - Pot 1: 100%;

      Delete
    3. Update on Croatia's pot 1 chances after last night's Spanish win over Costa Rica:

      If Croatia - Italy end with a draw, Croatia will be seeded if at least two out of four following scenarios happen:

      - Wales don't beat Belgium
      - Czech Rep don't beat Iceland
      - Spain lose to Belarus
      - any scenario regarding Portugal, other than that in which they win or draw with Armenia, but then lose to Italy.

      Delete
  4. FIFA published the agenda for the Executive Committee meeting on 30 May. Finally we'll have the decision on the slots per confederations for 2018 and 2022 World Cups.

    http://resources.fifa.com/mm/document/affederation/bodies/02/60/85/24/exco_extraordinaryagendamay2015_en_v0.2_15-01093_101_en_en_neutral.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  5. It's officially confirmed, no changes to the allocation of slots per confederation for both 2018 and 2022 world cups. That's a relief...

    ReplyDelete