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Friday, May 15, 2015

FIFA Ranking: June 2015 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 June.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.


A couple of things will happen regardless of these probable results.

  • Belgium will be 2nd - best ever ranking
  • Congo and Timor-Leste will improve their best ever ranking
  • Vanuatu will drop to their worst ever ranking
Some teams will surely reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:

Austria (20 - 20 in August 1999) - 15 years and 10 months
Poland (at least 33 - 29 in March 2009) - 6 years and 3 months
Slovakia (17 - 16 in September 2010) - 4 years and 9 months
China PR (at least 81 - 78 in September 2012) - 2 years and 9 months
Cayman Islands (189 - 189 in November 2012) - 2 years and 7 months
Jamaica (at least 67 - 49 in June 2013) - 2 years

Others will surely drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:

Paraguay (at most 84 - 100 in June 1995) - 20 years
Turkmenistan (at most 171 - 174 in September 2007) - 7 years and 9 months
Libya (at most 117 - 118 in November 2009) - 5 years and 7 months
Liberia (at most 145 - 157 in May 2011) - 4 years and 1 month
Samoa (198 - 204 in November 2011) - 3 years and 7 months
Maldives (at most 175 - 175 in February 2012) - 3 years and 4 months
Afghanistan (at most 164 - 189 in February 2013) - 2 years and 4 months
Kyrgyzstan (at most 174 - 201 in March 2013) - 2 years and 3 months
Ukraine (35 - 39 in June 2013) - 2 years
Armenia (at most 83 - 89 in June 2013) - 2 years
Oman (at most 100 - 101 in June 2013) - 2 years

Belgium will be ranked above Argentina for the first time ever.
Austria will be ranked above Mexico for the first time ever.
Congo will be ranked above Cameroon for the first time ever.
Belarus will be ranked above Paraguay for the first time ever.
Bhutan and Timor-Leste will be ranked above Maldives for the first time ever.
China PR will be ranked above Paraguay for the first time in the last 18 years and 11 months.
Slovakia will be ranked above Croatia for the first time in the last 17 years and 9 months.
Pakistan will be ranked above Maldives for the first time in the last 16 years and 7 months.
Slovakia will be ranked above Chile for the first time in the last 7 years and 9 months.

 Probable June 2015 rank - Team - Probable June 2015 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Germany 1775 0 88
2 Belgium 1509 1 52
3 Argentina 1496 -1 2
4 Colombia 1435 0 23
5 Brazil 1392 0 20
6 Netherlands 1378 0 77
7 Portugal 1229 0 8
8 Uruguay 1183 0 7
9 France 1164 2 37
10 Spain 1147 0 15
11 Switzerland 1146 -2 11
12 Romania 1115 0 29
13 Italy 1101 0 16
14 Costa Rica 1056 1 40
15 England 1051 -1 21
16 Czech Republic 1036 2 113
17 Slovakia 1012 2 92
18 Croatia 992 -1 15
19 Chile 989 -3 -13
20 Austria 946 5 55
21 Algeria 941 -1 24
22 Wales 929 -1 13
23 Mexico 926 -1 18
24 Côte d'Ivoire 916 -1 9
25 Greece 899 -1 -1
26 Russia 833 1 5
27 USA 823 1 -2
28 Ghana 818 -2 -15
28 Scotland 818 2 22
30 Denmark 808 -1 0
30 Tunisia 808 1 15
32 Ecuador 806 2 44
33 Bosnia-Herzegovina 802 -1 19
33 Poland 802 2 49
35 Ukraine 784 -2 12
36 Senegal 782 0 30
37 Iceland 769 1 41
38 Cape Verde Islands 746 -1 9
39 Sweden 737 0 33
40 Israel 725 6 76
41 Iran 717 -1 28
42 Hungary 685 1 20
43 Nigeria 681 2 22
44 Northern Ireland 676 -2 4
45 Guinea 673 -4 -5
45 Serbia 673 -1 9
47 Congo 666 2 42
48 Slovenia 653 -1 5
49 Cameroon 641 -1 14
50 Equatorial Guinea 635 11 86
51 Albania 624 6 49
52 Japan 623 -2 9
52 Mali 623 4 45
54 Panama 597 -1 10
55 Egypt 592 -4 -20
56 Congo DR 591 -2 7
57 Turkey 590 -5 -13
58 Korea Republic 587 -1 12
59 Gabon 583 -4 0
60 Republic of Ireland 581 2 35
61 Peru 546 2 14
62 Bulgaria 537 5 32
63 South Africa 533 -4 -20
64 Australia 532 0 1
65 Norway 528 5 37
66 Jamaica 524 8 58
67 Burkina Faso 520 -1 3
68 Trinidad and Tobago 519 -3 0
69 Zambia 515 -9 -37
70 Montenegro 513 5 56
71 Uganda 504 0 19
72 United Arab Emirates 496 -4 -5
73 Venezuela 493 -4 -2
74 Uzbekistan 479 -2 3
75 Honduras 449 1 -4
76 Haiti 442 3 0
77 Togo 438 3 3
78 Finland 410 0 -36
79 China PR 409 3 1
80 Belarus 400 3 3
81 Latvia 390 4 3
82 Sierra Leone 387 6 5
83 Armenia 383 -6 -66
84 Paraguay 382 -3 -33
85 Iraq 381 1 -2
86 El Salvador 379 -2 -9
87 Cyprus 377 9 35
88 Bolivia 375 4 15
89 Angola 374 0 -7
90 Mozambique 370 -4 -13
90 Estonia 370 3 12
92 Morocco 369 -2 -2
93 Guatemala 348 -3 -23
94 Rwanda 346 -21 -128
95 Lithuania 341 5 8
96 Qatar 334 3 -3
97 Saudi Arabia 329 -2 -20
98 Ethiopia 324 3 3
99 Jordan 322 4 6
100 FYR Macedonia 321 5 9
101 Oman 319 -4 -22
102 Faroe Islands 318 0 0
103 Antigua and Barbuda 313 3 2
104 Malawi 305 -7 -36
105 Bahrain 299 3 0
106 Cuba 295 3 -3
107 Sudan 292 4 4
108 Canada 290 7 13
109 Benin 289 -15 -68
110 Botswana 282 -6 -32
111 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 279 -1 -12
112 Zimbabwe 278 11 43
113 St. Kitts and Nevis 275 -1 -6
114 Azerbaijan 272 2 8
115 Dominican Republic 256 3 -1
116 Niger 251 3 -1
117 Tanzania 249 -10 -55
118 Palestine 242 23 52
119 Libya 238 -7 -43
120 Syria 234 5 9
121 Kenya 220 -4 -38
122 Moldova 219 -2 -26
123 Kuwait 218 3 -6
124 Bermuda 217 4 0
125 Lesotho 214 -4 -28
126 Namibia 211 -12 -68
126 Vietnam 211 -2 -18
128 Thailand 210 14 27
129 Liechtenstein 207 -2 -12
130 Luxembourg 201 7 1
131 Barbados 196 -1 -19
132 Kazakhstan 195 2 -15
133 Burundi 194 -11 -43
134 St. Lucia 190 -3 -24
135 Philippines 183 2 -17
136 New Zealand 180 8 17
137 Georgia 173 2 -24
137 Tajikistan 173 6 0
139 Lebanon 172 5 9
140 Central African Republic 161 4 -2
140 India 161 7 0
142 Myanmar 160 16 27
143 Malta 154 6 -4
143 Korea DPR 154 13 15
145 Timor-Leste 151 6 0
146 Liberia 149 -14 -63
147 Curaçao 148 1 -11
148 Mauritania 146 -19 -70
149 Guyana 140 14 12
150 Aruba 138 -14 -66
150 Nicaragua 138 4 -4
152 Guinea-Bissau 131 -20 -81
152 Belize 131 7 0
152 Indonesia 131 7 0
155 Singapore 130 7 0
156 Bhutan 128 7 0
157 Gambia 124 0 -14
157 Bangladesh 124 12 8
157 Suriname 124 -2 -17
160 Malaysia 121 6 1
161 Hong Kong 118 8 2
162 Yemen 117 6 0
163 Puerto Rico 114 4 -5
164 Afghanistan 112 -29 -96
164 Dominica 112 1 -9
166 New Caledonia 111 9 10
167 Grenada 109 4 -4
168 Pakistan 106 5 0
169 Madagascar 105 -19 -51
170 US Virgin Islands 104 4 0
171 Chad 100 -19 -50
172 Turkmenistan 99 -13 -32
172 Laos 99 6 11
174 Guam 97 2 0
175 Kyrgyzstan 89 -22 -59
176 Maldives 86 -36 -105
176 Cambodia 86 3 0
176 Chinese Taipei 86 3 0
179 Montserrat 74 -7 -33
180 Mauritius 73 5 8
181 Tahiti 71 4 6
182 Nepal 70 -1 0
183 Brunei Darussalam 69 -1 0
184 Swaziland 67 -8 -30
185 Macau 66 -2 0
186 Sri Lanka 64 2 0
187 Sao Tome e Principe 58 3 0
188 Seychelles 56 1 -4
189 Cayman Islands 48 2 0
190 Comoros 44 -5 -21
190 Solomon Islands 44 2 -2
192 San Marino 40 2 0
193 Turks and Caicos Islands 33 -10 -33
194 British Virgin Islands 29 4 3
195 Fiji 28 1 -2
196 Bahamas 26 2 0
197 South Sudan 24 -4 -19
198 Samoa 21 -2 -9
199 Mongolia 19 1 0
200 Vanuatu 17 -5 -17
200 Tonga 17 1 0
202 Papua New Guinea 13 0 0
203 American Samoa 12 0 0
204 Andorra 8 0 0
204 Eritrea 8 0 0
206 Somalia 6 0 0
207 Cook Islands 4 0 0
207 Djibouti 4 0 0
209 Anguilla 2 0 0

10 comments:

  1. What would happen if Colombia beats Costa Rica on June 6th ?

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  2. I think Colombia's performance in the Copa America has much more influence regarding their position in the July ranking than the result of this friendly.

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  3. Can you please tell me what happens for Mauritius as it has won 1-0 against Seychelles in the COSAFA

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  4. Mauritius 1-0 Seychelles , Mauritius 0-2 Namibia , Mauritius 0-2 Zimbabwe..

    COSAFA finished today .. what happens to the rankings please

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  5. Ed, if Portugal ties with Armenia, what we need to stay in Pot 1 for 2018?

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  6. Well, it would get tight. With a draw against Armenia and the predicted draw in the Italy-friendly you would be UEFA 7th, assuming the rest of the qualifiers goes according to elo-predictions. With a loss in the friendly you would be overtaken by Italy and Portugal would be UEFA 8th with absolutely no room to spare to the teams behind you. Especially Wales could become dangerous then, because their qualfier against Belgium is predicted as a loss, so for them there's lots of room to improve on their predicted points.
    If Portugal fulfills the expectations and defeats Armenia, you are save for the first pot.

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  7. It is probable that I miss something, but I have not readed yet any official news about Fifa ranking and the Copa America 2016, the special edition for the centenary that will involve 16 teams from Comnebol and Concacaf (nice idea this competition in my opinion).
    It will be considered as a "normal" continental competition, with a multiplier factor of 3.0 and the same status of the Copa America 2015? I think yes, but I have not found any official news about it.
    If the responsive will be positive,this will be an impact for Comnebol and Concacaf teams in the ranking, in my opinion, because in some case they will have four consecutive years with main competitions played (the first time it happens, I think).
    i.e. Brazil eventually will have WC in 2014, Copa America in both 2015 and 2016, confederation cup in 2017 if they win the Copa America 2015.
    USA and Mexico may have Gold Cup in 2015 and 2017, Copa America Centenario in 2016, Confederation Cup (for one of them) in 2017, and World Cup in 2018, so five main competition in four years!
    This can be eventually discussed as a possible flaw of the ranking, because, I think, is undeniable that best teams from these confederations will take advantage from this situation respect other continents (Europe, Asia and Oceania in particular).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will definitely give the top teams in CONMEBOL and CONCACAF an extra boost in the ranking if the Copa Centenario is treated as a continental final (which is also my expectation). Although it is a one-time tournament I expect there will be some impact on the seeding in pot 1 for the World Cup 2018 finals. Otherwise the ranking is not used for interconfederational draws.
      So yes, we will have more top-teams from the Americas high(er) in the ranking the next years, but otherwise the direct influence of this tournament will be limited to the mentioned draw.
      In this regard, I'm also curious how the UEFA Nations League matches (starting autumn 2018) will be treated for the ranking.

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    2. yes, it is true, from that moment on, the great advantage will pass on the european teams side, because they will have no more friedlies (or next to nothing).
      Theorically, since the competition assign places for Euro2020, the 2,5 factor will be used, taking into consideration for the same reason the old AFC Challenge Cup passed from 1,0 to 2,5.

      Delete
  8. Here's an overview of the elo-predicted UEFA July ranking, used for the World Cup UEFA-qualification draw. Also is given: for each UEFA team the minimum and maximum points in July and the currently scheduled matches in May/June with in parentheses the minimum points with a win against each team. Note that Russia will be host and that Gibraltar is no FIFA-member (although the FIFA-meeting this week might have something to say about that).

    nr team elo min. max.; program June (min. points with win)
    01 GER 1464 1411 1464; f USA (1464) - Q GIB
    02 BEL 1328 1181 1391; f FRA (1244) - Q WAL (1328)
    03 ROU 1277 1111 1277; Q NIR
    04 NED 1245 1131 1245; f USA (1171) - Q LVA (1205)
    05 ENG 1185 1030 1185; f IRL (1072) - Q SVN (1143)
    06 POR 1137 1020 1178; Q ARM (1116) - f ITA (1081)
    07 ESP 1110 0970 1110; f CRC (1021) - Q BLR (1059)
    08 CRO 1023 0965 1138; f GIB - Q ITA (1138)
    09 ITA 1020 0956 1148; Q CRO (1091) - f POR (1013)
    ------
    10 SVK 1016 0934 1016; Q MKD
    11 SUI 0998 0888 0998; f LIE (912) - Q LTU (975)
    12 FRA 0985 0882 0985; f BEL (941) - f ALB (926)
    13 CZE 0983 0933 1084; Q ISL
    14 WAL 0910 0910 1155; Q BEL
    15 DEN 0876 0722 0876; f MNE (761) - Q SRB (837)
    16 AUT 0854 0854 1016; Q RUS
    17 POL 0819 0679 0819; Q GEO (745) - f GRE (754)
    18 BIH 0819 0670 0819; Q ISR
    ------
    19 UKR 0792 0721 0792; f GEO (740) - Q LUX (773)
    20 ISL 0786 0740 0877; Q CZE
    21 SWE 0753 0652 0777; f NOR (689) - Q MNE (740)
    22 SCO 0731 0695 0861; f QAT (731) - Q IRL (825)
    23 GRE 0731 0640 0793; Q FRO (731) - f POL (702)
    24 IRL 0691 0532 0760; f ENG (600) - Q SCO (691)
    25 HUN 0688 0612 0764; f LTU (651) - Q FIN (725)
    26 NIR 0663 0652 0861; f QAT (686) - Q ROU (826)
    27 SRB 0662 0630 0820; f AZE (662) - Q DEN (788)
    ------
    28 ALB 0641 0641 0722; f FRA
    29 SVN 0626 0626 0797; Q ENG
    30 ISR 0620 0620 0826; Q BIH
    31 TUR 0614 0558 0614; Q KAZ
    32 NOR 0538 0458 0570; f SWE (506) - Q AZE (522)
    33 BUL 0535 0467 0535; Q MLT
    34 FIN 0460 0371 0558; f EST (412) - Q HUN (518)
    35 MNE 0423 0423 0666; f DEN (495) - Q SWE (594)
    36 CYP 0391 0338 0391; Q AND
    ------
    37 EST 0390 0359 0420; f FIN (389) - Q SMR (390)
    38 LVA 0377 0377 0557; Q NED
    39 ARM 0373 0373 0578; Q POR
    40 MKD 0351 0299 0520; f EQG (351) - Q SVK (469)
    41 BLR 0341 0341 0534; f RUS (393) - Q ESP (482)
    42 LTU 0317 0301 0505; f HUN (348) - f MLT (317) - Q SUI (441)
    43 MDA 0276 0209 0291; f LUX (232) - Q LIE (268)
    44 AZE 0264 0264 0428; f SRB (315) - Q NOR (377)
    45 FRO 0239 0239 0456; Q GRE
    ------
    46 LUX 0187 0178 0359; f MDA (206) - Q UKR (331)
    47 KAZ 0185 0185 0311; Q TUR (274) - f CPV (222)
    48 GEO 0165 0165 0413; f UKR (235) - Q POL (343)
    49 LIE 0161 0161 0287; f SUI (223) - Q MDA (224)
    50 MLT 0123 0123 0271; f LTU (157) - Q BUL (237)
    51 SMR 0040 0040 0155; Q EST
    52 AND 0009 0009 0186; f EQG (68) - Q CYP (127)

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