Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (23 September 2016)
TwitterLinked In

Friday, May 22, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (22 May 2015)

More info on the official format in the previous post.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 21 May 2015.

Remember Zimbabwe were excluded. I still have them in the list, just in case they are reinstated.


As there are no details regarding the preliminary rounds, here are the average points for the African teams in July 2015.

Best movers:

7 - Libya
4 - Benin
3 - Nigeria, Egypt, Rwanda, Namibia and Madagascar

Worst movers:

-5 - Equatorial Guinea, Tanzania
-4 - Malawi, Mauritania
-3 - Lesotho

Rank - Previous Rank - Team - Points


1 1 Algeria 940.506
2 2 Côte d'Ivoire 925.772
3 3 Ghana 831.388
4 4 Tunisia 790.135
5 5 Senegal 677.603
6 6 Cameroon 665.589
7 8 Congo 641.18
8 7 Guinea 612.392
9 12 Nigeria 596.86
10 13 Egypt 595.122
11 9 Cape Verde Islands 581.159
12 11 Mali 563.198
13 14 Gabon 543.6
14 15 Congo DR 530.359
15 10 Equatorial Guinea 528.459
16 16 South Africa 497.64
17 18 Zambia 487.046
18 17 Burkina Faso 483.106
19 19 Uganda 463.169
20 20 Togo 409.058
21 24 Rwanda 396.443
22 21 Mozambique 375.332
23 23 Morocco 366.938
24 22 Angola 360.744
25 29 Benin 344.842
26 25 Sierra Leone 335.747
27 34 Libya 334.264
28 28 Sudan 324.061
29 27 Ethiopia 308.116
30 26 Malawi 304.632
31 30 Niger 289.966
32 33 Kenya 277.408
33 31 Botswana 270.46
34 37 Namibia 253.176
35 35 Zimbabwe 244.354
36 38 Burundi 229.799
37 32 Tanzania 223.93
38 41 Madagascar 216.02
39 36 Lesotho 211.061
40 42 Liberia 203.141
41 40 Guinea-Bissau 186.286
42 43 Gambia 186.027
43 39 Mauritania 180.045
44 44 Central African Republic 141.711
45 47 Swaziland 132.243
46 45 Chad 116.043
47 46 Mauritius 79.294
48 48 Seychelles 60.922
49 49 Sao Tome e Principe 58.799
50 50 Comoros 52.611
51 51 South Sudan 42.95
52 54 Djibouti 11.398
53 52 Eritrea 8
54 53 Somalia 6

2 comments:

  1. Does this simulation includes results of Cosafa cup???
    Tanzania loses 3 games.
    does these loses affect Egypt ranking in July ranking?( supposed Egypt wins against Tanzania in next June.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Hossam,

    Yes, they were included. Yes, they will affect Egypt's July points.

    ReplyDelete