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Friday, June 12, 2015

FIFA Ranking: July 2015 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the July 2015 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

12/Jun Andorra - Cyprus 2 (Continental Qualifier)
12/Jun Bosnia-Herzegovina - Israel 1 (Continental Qualifier)
12/Jun Croatia - Italy X (Continental Qualifier)
12/Jun Guatemala - Bermuda 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Jun Guinea - Swaziland 1 (Continental Qualifier)
12/Jun Iceland - Czech Republic X (Continental Qualifier)
12/Jun Kazakhstan - Turkey 2 (Continental Qualifier)
12/Jun Latvia - Netherlands 2 (Continental Qualifier)
12/Jun Malta - Bulgaria 2 (Continental Qualifier)
12/Jun Mexico - Bolivia 1 (Continental Final)
12/Jun Morocco - Libya 1 (Continental Qualifier)
12/Jun Norway - Azerbaijan 1 (Continental Qualifier)
12/Jun Puerto Rico - Grenada X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Jun Tunisia - Djibouti 1 (Continental Qualifier)
12/Jun Wales - Belgium 2 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Albania - France 2 (Friendly)
13/Jun Algeria - Seychelles 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Angola - Central African Republic 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Argentina - Paraguay 1 (Continental Final)
13/Jun Armenia - Portugal 2 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Burkina Faso - Comoros 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Cape Verde Islands - Sao Tome e Principe 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Denmark - Serbia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Faroe Islands - Greece 2 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Finland - Hungary X (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Malawi - Zimbabwe 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Mali - South Sudan 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Nigeria - Chad 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Northern Ireland - Romania 2 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Poland - Georgia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Republic of Ireland - Scotland 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Senegal - Burundi 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun South Africa - Gambia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Uganda - Botswana 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Jun Uruguay - Jamaica 1 (Continental Final)
13/Jun Zambia - Guinea-Bissau 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Barbados - Aruba 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
14/Jun Belarus - Spain 2 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Belize - Dominican Republic X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
14/Jun Brazil - Peru 1 (Continental Final)
14/Jun Cameroon - Mauritania 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Colombia - Venezuela 1 (Continental Final)
14/Jun Congo - Kenya 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Congo DR - Madagascar 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Cuba - Curaçao 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
14/Jun Egypt - Tanzania 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Equatorial Guinea - Benin 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Estonia - San Marino 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Ethiopia - Lesotho 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Gabon - Côte d'Ivoire 2 (Friendly)
14/Jun Ghana - Mauritius 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Guyana - St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
14/Jun Liechtenstein - Moldova 2 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Lithuania - Switzerland 2 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Mozambique - Rwanda 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Niger - Namibia X (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Russia - Austria 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Slovakia - FYR Macedonia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Slovenia - England 2 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun St. Lucia - Antigua and Barbuda X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
14/Jun Sudan - Sierra Leone 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Sweden - Montenegro 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Togo - Liberia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Jun Ukraine - Luxembourg 1 (Continental Qualifier)
15/Jun Bermuda - Guatemala 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Jun Chile - Mexico 1 (Continental Final)
15/Jun Ecuador - Bolivia 1 (Continental Final)
16/Jun Argentina - Uruguay 1 (Continental Final)
16/Jun Bangladesh - Tajikistan 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Bhutan - China PR 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Cambodia - Afghanistan 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Canada - Dominica 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Chinese Taipei - Thailand 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun El Salvador - St. Kitts and Nevis 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Grenada - Puerto Rico 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Guam - India 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Hong Kong - Maldives 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Italy - Portugal X (Friendly)
16/Jun Japan - Singapore 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Jordan - Trinidad and Tobago 1 (Friendly)
16/Jun Kazakhstan - Uganda X (Friendly)
16/Jun Korea DPR - Uzbekistan X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Kyrgyzstan - Australia 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Laos - Lebanon 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Malaysia - Palestine X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Myanmar - Korea Republic 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Paraguay - Jamaica 1 (Continental Final)
16/Jun Poland - Greece 1 (Friendly)
16/Jun South Africa - Angola 1 (Friendly)
16/Jun Suriname - Nicaragua 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Timor-Leste - United Arab Emirates 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Turkmenistan - Iran 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Jun Yemen - Philippines X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Jun Brazil - Colombia X (Continental Final)
18/Jun Peru - Venezuela X (Continental Final)
19/Jun Chile - Bolivia 1 (Continental Final)
19/Jun Djibouti - Burundi 2 (Friendly)
19/Jun Ethiopia - Kenya X (Friendly)
19/Jun Guinea - Liberia 1 (Friendly)
19/Jun Guinea-Bissau - Mali 2 (Friendly)
19/Jun Lesotho - Botswana X (Friendly)
19/Jun Libya - Tunisia X (Friendly)
19/Jun Mauritania - Sierra Leone X (Friendly)
19/Jun Mexico - Ecuador X (Continental Final)
19/Jun Mozambique - Seychelles 1 (Friendly)
19/Jun Namibia - Zambia X (Friendly)
19/Jun Senegal - Gambia 1 (Friendly)
19/Jun South Africa - Mauritius 1 (Friendly)
19/Jun Tanzania - Uganda 2 (Friendly)
19/Jun Zimbabwe - Comoros 1 (Friendly)
20/Jun Argentina - Jamaica 1 (Continental Final)
20/Jun Uruguay - Paraguay 1 (Continental Final)
21/Jun Brazil - Venezuela 1 (Continental Final)
21/Jun Colombia - Peru 1 (Continental Final)
21/Jun Swaziland - Angola 2 (Friendly)
24/Jun Chile - Paraguay 1 (Continental Final)
25/Jun Mexico - Colombia 2 (Continental Final)
26/Jun Argentina - Ecuador 1 (Continental Final)
27/Jun Brazil - Uruguay 1 (Continental Final)
27/Jun Iraq - Syria 1 (Friendly)
27/Jun Mexico - Costa Rica X (Friendly)
29/Jun Chile - Colombia X Chile PSO (Continental Final)
30/Jun Argentina - Brazil X Argentina PSO (Continental Final)
01/Jul Honduras - Mexico 2 (Friendly)
03/Jul Botswana - Lesotho 1 (Friendly)
03/Jul Burundi - Djibouti 1 (Friendly)
03/Jul Colombia - Brazil X Brazil PSO (Continental Final)
03/Jul Comoros - Zimbabwe 2 (Friendly)
03/Jul Gambia - Senegal 2 (Friendly)
03/Jul Kenya - Ethiopia 1 (Friendly)
03/Jul Liberia - Guinea 2 (Friendly)
03/Jul Mali - Guinea-Bissau 1 (Friendly)
03/Jul Mauritius - South Africa 2 (Friendly)
03/Jul Morocco - Libya 1 (Friendly)
03/Jul Seychelles - Mozambique 2 (Friendly)
03/Jul Sierra Leone - Mauritania 1 (Friendly)
03/Jul Uganda - Tanzania 1 (Friendly)
03/Jul USA - Guatemala 1 (Friendly)
03/Jul Zambia - Namibia 1 (Friendly)
04/Jul Angola - Swaziland 1 (Friendly)
04/Jul Chile - Argentina X Argentina PSO (Continental Final)


  1. Which combination of results is necessary for Austria to be placed in POT1 in the WC2018 draw (besides defeating Russia, of course). Thanks.

    1. Alas Daniel, Austria can no longer reach pot 1 after yesterday's results. Germany, Belgium, Romania, The Netherlands, England, Wales, Portugal, Spain and Croatia will all have more than 1016 points in July, the points Austria can reach with a win against Russia.

  2. Ed, correct if im wrong in my calculations.

    After yesterday 8 spots in pot 1 are locked, and only Croatia e Italy fighting for a spot, which will come from the result from Portugal-Italy.

    Right? or am i making some calculations wrong?

  3. Which results does Italy need to end up in pot one?

    Thank you in advance.

  4. At the moment (after Saturday's matches) 7 teams (Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Romania, England, Wales and Portugal) are secure in pot 1. Spain, Italy and Croatia fight for the last two spots.
    Croatia has 1023 points and has to wait what the other two will do. A draw against Belarus tonight is enough (1051 pts) for Spain while a loss brings them 1021 points. Italy has a friendly on Tuesday against Portugal which they need to win to get to 1051 pts, A draw delivers only 1020 points and a spot in pot 2.
    So Croatia needs a loss for Spain or a draw/loss for Italy to be top-seed.

    Slovakia and Austria can only reach 1016 points with wins tonight against Macedonia and Russia and are locked in pot 2.

  5. Small correction: Italy gets to 1058 points with a win against Portugal. Same conclusions...

  6. What if Italy makes 6+ subs?

  7. Wicked, but that would be enough: they currently have 1053 points.

    1. FIFA included South Africa - Spain friendly in the rankings, even after Spain made 7 substitutions in that match. So even if Italy tries something in this regard, I think the match would've still counted.

  8. Seriously? If the game is not played or doesn't count, Italy is in pot one?

  9. Hi Ed,
    How is every pot after today`s game?

    1. won't know Pot 1 or Pot 2 until Tuesday when Italy plays Portugal

  10. Hi Ed. This site is fantastic. Thank you for taking the time to make this interesting information available to everyone.

    1. Yes, Ed - thank you for answering the questions. You're great!

  11. @Ed: would Holland have made it into pot 1 if all WC2014 games were treated as belonging to the same timeframe (that's including the SF v. Argentina and the 3rd place final v. Brazil)? After Holland's loss to the US I'm guessing they would have dropped to pot 2 while both Italy and Croatia would have ended up in pot 1.

    1. Eun, a quick calculation of the July ranking with a publishing date of July 16th learns that the Netherlands would be UEFA 9th with 1032 points, just in front of Croatia with 1023. So still pot 1, but only by the skin of their teeth.

  12. As far as I can tell, the UEFA pots will now be as follows. I'll be glad if someone can confirm that.

    Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, Portugal, Netherlands, Romania, England, Wales, Spain
    Pot 1 or 2: Italy, Croatia (Italy is in pot 1 if they win the friendly against Portugal, otherwise Croatia is in pot 1)
    Pot 2: Slovakia, Austria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, France, Iceland, Denmark, Bosnia and Herzegovina
    Pot 3: Poland, Ukraine, Russia, Scotland, Hungary, Sweden, Albania, Northern Ireland
    Pot 3 or 4: Greece, Serbia (Greece is in pot 3 if they win the friendly against Poland, otherwise Serbia is in pot 3)
    Pot 4: Turkey, Slovenia, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Norway, Bulgaria, Faroe Islands, Montenegro
    Pot 5: Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Armenia, Finland, Belarus, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Lithuania
    Pot 6: Moldova, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Georgia, Malta, San Marino, Andorra

    1. I completely forgot to exclude Russia. Please ignore the above and refer to Ed's overview below.

  13. Here's an overview of the elo-predicted UEFA July ranking, used for the World Cup UEFA-qualification draw after the qualifiers this weekend. Note that Russia will be host and that Gibraltar is no FIFA-member.
    Italy can still push Croatia to pot 2 by defeating Portugal tomorrow. Poland didn't do a very wise thing to arrange a last-minute friendly with Greece. It costs them a spot in pot 2.

    nr team elo
    01 GER 1411
    02 BEL 1244
    03 NED 1204
    04 ROU 1166
    05 ENG 1157
    06 WAL 1155
    07 POR 1136 f ITA (w 1178 - d 1136 - l 1116) now 1183
    08 ESP 1110
    09 CRO 1023
    10 ITA 1020 f POR (w 1058 - d 1020 - l 1001) now 1053
    11 SVK 1016
    12 AUT 1016
    13 SUI 0997
    14 CZE 0933
    15 FRA 0882
    16 ISL 0877
    17 DEN 0876
    18 BIH 0819
    19 POL 0818 f GRE (w 818 - d 769 - l 744) now 827
    20 UKR 0791
    21 SCO 0774
    22 HUN 0763
    23 SWE 0752
    24 ALB 0722
    25 NIR 0721
    26 SRB 0662
    27 GRE 0640 f POL (w 702 - d 661 - l 640) now 653
    28 TUR 0627
    29 SVN 0626
    30 ISR 0620
    31 IRL 0608
    32 NOR 0495
    33 BUL 0489
    34 FRO 0456
    35 MNE 0423
    36 EST 0420
    37 CYP 0391
    38 LVA 0377
    39 ARM 0373
    40 FIN 0371
    41 BLR 0341
    42 MKD 0311
    43 AZE 0302
    44 LTU 0301
    45 MDA 0236
    46 KAZ 0195 f UGA (w 215 - d 195 - l 185) now 193
    47 LUX 0187
    48 LIE 0182
    49 GEO 0165
    50 MLT 0157
    51 SMR 0040
    52 AND 0009

    Changes in pots compared to the situation before this set of qualifiers/friendlies:
    Wales 2 -> 1; Italy 1 -> 2
    Iceland 3 -> 2; Poland 2 -> 3
    Albania 4 -> 3; Republic of Ireland 3 -> 4
    Faroe Islands and Estonia 5 -> 4; Finland and Cyprus 4 -> 5

    Qualifying upsets for Wales (against Belgium), Iceland (against Czech Republic) and Faroe Islands (against Greece) helped them to a better pot.
    Friendly wins for Albania (against France) and Estonia (against Finland) payed off big time too.

  14. Would Poland stay in pot 2 if the match vs. Greece isn't aranged? What are the consequences of doing 7 or more subsitutes? I remember a friendy Poland vs. Romania played on 2 February 2013 and won by Poland 4-1 that had been deleted because Romania did 8 subsitutes.

  15. Yes, Poland would remain at 827 points and would push Bosnia-Herzegovina to pot 3 if the Greece-friendly is not played or does not count for the ranking.

    From the FIFA-circular no. 1273 of 29 July 2011:

    Main criteria for an international friendly to be included in the list used for the calculation of the ranking:
    • Observance of the Laws of the Game as issued by IFAB and published by FIFA.
    • In accordance with the FIFA Statutes, the main referee and both assistants must be listed on the current FIFA list of international referees.
    • It is not compulsory that the fourth official be included on the FIFA list of international referees but if a non-FIFA listed fourth official is required to replace the referee or assistant during an international "A" match, this match will not be included on FIFA's list of matches for the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.
    • The referee and assistant referees shall be fram a neutral country unless otherwise previously agreed by the members concerned.
    • Only six substitutions per team can be made during the match.

  16. very very weird mode of ranking .. if romania have beaten Northern Ireland they were second place after Germany .. passing countries like Spain and Portugal, but they didnt participated at a world cup or euro since Gica Hagi ....15 years ago :)

    1. Romania qualified for Euro 2008 with Adrian Mutu etc and were not disgraced in a group of death with Netherlands, Italy and France. I agree their ranking seems higher than their true strength, same for Wales. Both in reality Pot 2 teams at best.

  17. For Romania goes the same thing as for Wales: both have a very high first timeframe average, composed of a very small number of friendlies (Romania 1, a win over Denmark, Wales none) and no losses in 6 played EURO-qualifiers. The other timeframes are average for both.
    Of course you can only get that much points if you have a few good, high-valued wins under your belt this last year: Romania has 3 against (Greece, Finland and Northern Ireland); Wales has 2 against Belgium and Israel.
    Resulting first timeframe averages for Romania of 787 points and for Wales of 817 points has pushed them high up the ranking. I would say typical examples of deliberate matchplanning and peaking at the right moment !

    1. Edgar is from Romania if Im' not mistaken, so I wonder if he had something to do with it. ;)

    2. Yes, I've exchanged some e-mails with Romanian FA officials in March and April 2014, telling them to avoid friendlies. Quite surprised they listened.

  18. Italy and Poland should do some crash-boom-bang with 7-th (or 8-th for sure) substitution on 90+ to stop this idiotism with current FIFA ranking method and to force them using normal ranking like UEFA for National Teams...

    1. If that would lead to abandoning of the FIFA ranking by UEFA, or at least to some major reform in the way the points are calculated, I'd sign up for that, even if it meant that Croatia started from pot 2 in the WC 2018 draw.

    2. They could just decrease the value of the number of friendlies played per each timeframe counting them as 1/2 of oficial games (and maybe use coefficient a bit less then 1.0 for points calculation - discussible). This would be nice for hosts missing qualifiers and not so much affect other teams used to gain points in officials but not to play game "who will play the less friendlies" especially before big tournaments,

  19. Vitalii, nogomet, I don't think FIFA leaves the path of "it's a FIFA-tournament so I want the FIFA-ranking to be used as a seeding instrument", but if you (nogomet) can even accept the consequences for Croatia then I can fullheartedly say that I like the idea of an actual statement of Poland and Italy regarding a necessary reform of the FIFA-ranking. There are at the moment too many flaws in the calculation-method to use the FIFA-ranking as a proper seeding-instrument.

    There certainly are some tweaks possible on the current ranking-method:
    - less influence of friendlies (or more influence of qualifiers and such). Possibly determine seperate averages for friendly and non-friendly matches and apply a weight on those averages;
    - no tinkering possible with the number of substitutes or other factors to get a match counting for the ranking or not;
    - use the confederation-weight of the opponent only, not an average of the two confederation-weights;
    - something special has to be done with the ranking of a tournament-host as they can only play friendlies for a year or two.
    And I'am probably overlooking some other issues still .....

    1. I just though that "Less influence of friedlies" will not guarantee some curious situaltions like Poland has this time. They will miss only one (or two for sure) point to reach 2-nd pot if beat Greece.
      It must be impossible that win decreases rankings. But in other hand, it should not be possible to sufficiently increase rankings by beating the weak opponents in friendlies.
      Italy and Poland may force changes this time (if Croatia and Bosnia will be too upset and blow scandal). But new method must be carefully justified

    2. Regarding the 7 substitutes issue, we have a precedent with FIFA including such a game into the rankings (South Africa - Spain in 2013), so I'd suspect they'd do the same even if Italy and/or Poland try to pull that off tonight.

    3. Maybe they both agreed about subs number and claimed it before the game and FIFA accepted? I remember Lithuania vs Russia before WC-14 has been excluded (and even after being involved into first rankings after this game but excluded from all subsequent rankings) because of 7 subs Lithuania made...

    4. Sorry, it was before EC-12

    5. Nope, it was agreed that there'll be only 6 substitutions, but Spain decided to make the seventh one after their goalkeeper was injured. South Africans were outraged and after a week FIFA made this statement:

    6. You have a point there, nogomet. FIFA clearly decided in this case that the disadvantage for South Africa would be huge if the match was not included in the ranking (they won 1:0).
      Norrmally 6+ subs means: not included in the ranking. The FIFA circular letter is absolutely clear on that point. But apparently FIFA can make exceptions at their disposal.

    7. Interesting info, thanks.
      I will not suggest other anfair methods to make these games (at least POL vs GRE, Italy may just fairly win) uncounted in rankings, but new FIFA head should think about it...
      In USSR there were penalty shoot-out invented in 1970-th in regular championship draw games. And two teams (don't remember which) made them cancel it by missing shot after shot...
      I guess it is not too smart to wait until emergency to make improvements

  20. Fifa suck austria iceland slovakia gteece beat amy tjese teams whicj done in the past

  21. The referee in Poland vs. Greece (0-0) was injured and had been substituted by 4th official Marcin Borski FROM POLAND!!! Could it be the reason of not taking this match into account?

  22. From the FIFA-circular no. 1273 of 29 July 2011:

    Main criteria for an international friendly to be included in the list used for the calculation of the ranking:
    • It is not compulsory that the fourth official be included on the FIFA list of international referees but if a non-FIFA listed fourth official is required to replace the referee or assistant during an international "A" match, this match will not be included on FIFA's list of matches for the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.

    So the question is: is Marcin Borski an international FIFA-referee or not ?

  23. And the answer is: yes, he is an international FIFA-referee since 2006.

  24. What about the rule: The referee and assistant referees shall be fram a neutral country unless otherwise previously agreed by the members concerned?

    And now the question is: Can the 4th official who replaces the main referee be from not-neutral country? Is he still regarded as 4th if he comes to the pitch or is he regarded as the main referee who is required to be from the third country then?

  25. Moritania beats Senegal friendly and Chad beats Guniea friendly, why these results are not included in this ranking??

    1. Most likely because they were not on FIFA's list of fixtures when I posted this.